PEERS INC EXCESS CAPACITY. People & Platforms are Inventing the Collaborative Economy & Re-inventing Capitalism

Transcription

1 @rmchase

2 PEERS INC EXCESS CAPACITY PEOPLE PLATFORMS People & Platforms are Inventing the Collaborative Economy & Re-inventing Capitalism

3 Code Devices Friends Idle Money Lectures Data Music EXCESS CAPACITY Videos Networks Devices Expertise Servers Routers Reviews Links Stuff PEOPLE PLATFORMS FOSS SmartPhones WhatsApp OKCupid TransferWise Lending Club Open Data Open spectrum Open devices MOOCs Spotify Pandora Fiverr UpWork Etsy LinkedIn Mesh networks Co housing Co work Bitcoin Blockchain OpenTable Yelp Yerdle

4 Excess BED Capacity = sharing

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7 AGE ROOMS HOTELS COUNTRIES 9 2,500, , , , ,

8 AGE ROOMS HOTELS COUNTRIES 9 2,500, , , , ,

9 AGE ROOMS HOTELS COUNTRIES 9 2,500, , , , ,

10 INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH (companies, institutions, governments) Large investments Multi-year efforts Integration & Aggregation of many parts Deep Sector knowledge Diverse technical expertise(s) Standard Contracts & standardization Consistency Brand Promise (trusted company) Global

11 INDIVIDUAL STRENGTH (people, local NGOs & local companies) Small investments Short-term sporadic efforts Delivery of small services Local knowledge Specific unique expertise/offering Customization, specialization Creativity Personal social networks (trusted individual) Local

12 INDIVIDUAL STRENGTH (people, local NGOs & local companies) Small investments Short-term sporadic efforts Delivery of small services Local knowledge Specific unique expertise/offering Customization, specialization Creativity Personal social networks (trusted individual) Local INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH (companies, institutions, governments) Large investments Multi-year efforts Integration & Aggregation of many parts Deep Sector knowledge Diverse technical expertise(s) Standard Contracts & standardization Consistency Brand Promise (trusted company) Global

13 PEERS STRENGTH (people, local NGOs & local companies) Small investments Short-term sporadic efforts Delivery of small services Local knowledge Specific unique expertise/offering Customization, specialization Creativity Personal social networks (trusted individual) Local INC STRENGTH (companies, institutions, governments) Large investments Multi-year efforts Integration & Aggregation of many parts Deep Sector knowledge Diverse technical expertise(s) Standard Contracts & standardization Consistency Brand Promise (trusted company) Global DIVERSITY of offering PLATFORM for participation

14 Excess Capacity Resource & Cost Efficient PEERS INC

15 Excess Capacity Already exists, paid for, more value there Robin Chase/Peers Inc

16 How to harness Excess Capacity?

17 2013 McKinsey report on OPEN DATA

18 2013 McKinsey report on OPEN DATA

19 Excess Capacity PEERS INC Platform for Participation Organize, Simplify, Empower Scale Economies High Growth

20 BlaBlaCar 4m transported each month =10k high speed trains = 10k 747s

21 Excess Capacity Resource & Cost Efficient PEERS Diversity Innovation Resilience Redundancy INC Platform for Participation Scale Economies High Growth

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24 Every month in 2016 has been the hottest on record

25 Peers Inc enables 3 miracles

26 Because we are leveraging excess capacity Peers Inc #1 We can defy the laws of physics

27 BAU asset building Year

28 Because we are building on platforms for participation Peers Inc #2 We can tap exponential learning

29 130 hours, one semester of college 54 hours of Rosetta stone

30 130 hours, one semester of college 54 hours of Rosetta stone 34 hours of Duolingo

31 Today > 50M 2013

32 Because we work with a diversity of peers Peers Inc #3 The Right Person will Appear (rapid local adaptation)

33 In 6 Months 2000 Listings December 2014 April 2015 July 2015

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35 PEERS INC is a collaboration #1 We can defy the laws of physics PLATFORM organizes & unleashes excess capacity PEER co investment with existing assets #2 We can tap exponential learning 100s of 1000s of simultaneous PEER experiments PLATFORM analyzes, learns, shares best practice #3 The RIGHT person will appearxxxxx PLATFORM (supercomputing + peer learning) Real time adaptation by PEERs at the edges

36 PEERS INC is a collaboration #1 We can scale exponentially PLATFORM organizes & unleashes excess capacity PEER co investment with existing assets #2 We can tap exponential learning 100s of 1000s of simultaneous PEER experiments PLATFORM analyzes, learns, shares best practice #3 The RIGHT person will appearxxxxx PLATFORM (supercomputing + peer learning) Real time adaptation by PEERs at the edges

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38 PRESENT: Avg 18% of household income Parking challenging Congestion & Time wasting Excludes young/old/disabled Poor air quality Reduces city livability

39 Autonomous Clean Shared

40 +Walking +Biking +Clean Fuel & Electric Clean

41 Autonomous Shared

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43 Technology has Transformed Sharing GPS, Wireless Tech & Internet made CARSHARING possible As easy to rent a car as use your own 30 seconds to reserve/pay for a car Self service pickup/dropoff Reserved homebase parking space 1 shared car = 12 personal cars Need less parking People drive less (financially rational)

44 Technology has Transformed Sharing With Smart phones, TRANSIT APPS make it easy to know Which train, bus What time Where to get on & where to get off City Benefits: More riders Cheaper & better access Less congestion

45 Technology has Transformed Sharing With Smart phones & better AI, taxis can enable real RIDESHARING: Origin destination timing matches City Benefits: Reduced congestion Better access

46 Autonomous

47 There s an urgency to our mission about being part of the future. This is not a side project. This is existential for us. UBER CEO Travis Kalanick on deploying Autonomous UBERs in Pittsburgh (August 2016)

48 + Credit: Randall Monroe

49 The infrastructure we build over the next 3 years will determine the fate of humanity. -Christiana Figueres

50 TRANSPORTATON Enormous Imminent Disruption

51 Sales Promised by & New Companies Emerging Old guard: GM Ford Toyota Nissan Volvo BMW Audi Volkswagen New companies: Google Tesla Uber Apple Many startups

52 TODAY > TOMORROW? We're dedicated to putting autonomous vehicles on the road for millions of people, not just those who can afford luxury cars this next decade is really going to be defined by the automation of the automobile. FORD CEO, Mark Fields

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54 Most important takeaway: When you take the driver out of the car: THE ECONOMIC THRESHHOLD for moving a vehicle is low. EXPLOSION OF VIABLE USES

55 Where this explosion of trips happens matters Exurban Urban

56 AV benefits are differentiated by geography. AVs Personal & Electric Exurban FAVES Fleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared Urban. Safety benefits felt here. Fewer cars (shared) & better air quality (electric) key benefits here.

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59 AV benefits are differentiated by population density. AVs Personal & Electric Exurban FAVES Fleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared Urban. Use -- and therefore regulation -- should be density based too.

60 We are getting a chance to DO OVER cities!

61 HOW WE USE NEW SPACE MATTERS

62 Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul

63 Cheonggyecheon River in Seoul

64 Allocate to active modes?

65 Today s Retail in Urban Areas Suburban warehouse

66 Tomorrow RATS?

67 We don t like RATS in cities, but they are fine in the country! Remember DENSITY MATTERS For AV policy & benefits

68 NEW MOBILITY PROTOCOL FOR LIVABLE CITIES (1) Starting in 2020, all new vehicles intended for shared use must be clean fuel or EVs. By 2025, all shared use vehicles will be clean fuel or EVs. In densely populated areas, poor air quality has significant negative impacts on the health of residents. Intensively used vehicles have greater impact on air quality while also able to reap greater cost-benefits over combustion engines. Shared use vehicles include those used for hire to transport passengers or freight, including car rental and car-sharing. (2) New transportation BTUs added to energy grid must be renewable. (3) Shared vehicle and shared ride services must use standard open APIs. Cities should seek to maximize the likelihood of passengers sharing vehicle trips. This requires that companies share same ways to communicate data. Permits small local and startups to compete. Ensures evolution of services; future proofing technology. (4) All AVs operating in densely populated areas* must be part of a shared fleet. 1) maximize learning per vehicle in these first years and thus safety; 2) enusre maintenance and software upgrades done by professionals; 3) the benefits of autonomous travel are available to all and extend access; 4) makes early sales easier for manufacturers; 5) codifies OEM intent to sell first limited supply of AVs to shared fleets *at a minimum should be constrained to areas with population density greater than 10,000/m2 (5) Local land (6,250/km2), use, zoning, city limits or building other geographically regulations, defined limitations. and user fees will support and incentivize these requirements.

69 OSMOSYS.ORG For PROTOCOL VIDEO & more details SIGN UP to join the community

70 HOW WE INTRODUCE MATTERS

71 WRONG: We won t get there by replacing buses with AV buses Good for bus company Bad for passengers This will NOT encourage the switch from personal cars to FAVES. RIGHT: #1: Start with small vehicles to deliver quality experience. #2: Increased demand will require larger vehicles on some O-D trips.

72 A LIKELY SCENARIO: 5-year transition from CARS to FAVES Year 1: 100 small vehicle pilot in mid-size city (students/tourists) Years 2-5: Expands to 1000 vehicle fleet. Cheaper & more convenient than status quo. First 2 nd vehicles sold. Then primary. On some routes, vehicles will become shuttle & bus size. Years 3-5: Other cities need to adopt to be competitive/modern, innovative. AVs for Urban & trucking Suburban & Rural?

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74 Electric Climate Friendly FAVES will be the fastest path to electric mobility

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76 WHAT IS MISSION OF TRANSIT? Safe affordable access? jobs?

77 Can Transit and FAVES Coexist? YES! Metro, light rail, BRT in dedicated ROW will be faster than vehicles. But buses will disappear. FAVES as feeder to rail; and to reduce transfers.

78 FUTURE: MULTIMODAL Pickup/drop off locations Transfers Schedules Price Origin Destination Minutes to Pickup # of seats Price < Continuuuuummmmm >

79 MULTI-SECTOR STAKEHOLDERS Community, Government & Private Sector Beneficiaries ACCESS DIVIDEND How many jobs newly accessible? At higher wages? LAND VALUE DIVIDEND Inventory on street & off street parking. What new uses, criteria & priority? What new value? LABOR DIVIDEND How many jobs lost? How might they be redeployed for more community gain? TAX DIVIDEND How much transport & labor tax revenue lost? Get to redo with better incentives & amounts.

80 ACTION STEPS Dedicated Staff time to thinking about future integration with FAVES Understand actual O-D of passengerse; improve service quality/routes On-demand flexible routes! With or w/out partners. Support Protocol (clean shared mobility; open standards; FAVES)

81 HOW WE TAX MATTERS

82 Taxes for Motor vehicle manufacturing & use = $206 Billion/year* ($110b state & $96b in federal) Current Sources: Gas Taxes Toll revenues Permits & Fees Tickets & Fines Parking Registrations With electric Avs None Fall by 60-90% (the higher end if we go to FAVES (reduced vehicles through tolls)) & 2 nd order effects Loss of taxes on associated labor & businesses now defunct * Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor MI

83 Taxing AVS Getting the incentives right Certificates of Entitlement Vehicles on purchase category Fuel type Weight Square footage Road user fees (based on category) Distance Congestion ZERO OCCUPANCY PREMIUM Retail Pickup/Dropoff VAT

84 HOW WE HANDLE LABOR MATTERS

85 Increased access to jobs & jobs with higher wages

86 JOB LOSS (US) We need no drivers & with FAVES only a fraction of manufacturing Today, we have: 3.5 million freight and delivery truck drivers 665k bus drivers 90k licensed taxi drivers in NYC alone 5.6 million in direct automotive manufacturing 1.65 million automotive dealerships Vehicle cleaning, maintenance & repair crews Gas station attendants & insurance agents Waiters & cooks that feed the 3.5 million truckers Center for Automotive Research, Ann Arbor MI

87 Registry: Laid off, first hired Pilot Universal Basic Income

88 To accomplish this big vision 10% OF CURRENT VEHICLES We need to the involvement of many sectors COMMUNITY Demand for FAVES vision LAND USE & URBAN PLANNING Planning & Criteria for New Space TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE REVS No gas tax, parking, tickets, 1/10 th tolls New: fuel type, weight, distance, congestion, occupancy Shared, Electric TRANSPORT w/out ownership, integrated multimodal LABOR Rapid crash in sector jobs Enable diversification today; plan for future DATA Open APIs, Privacy, Security Transparency, Portability VICTIMS Organize those who have suffered ENERGY New grid load must be renewables

89 Yellow cabs 336,737 daily trips & $4.98 million in fares in Nov 2016 down from 463,701 trips and $5.17 million in Nov 2010 Yellow cabs 336,737 daily trips (November 2016) Uber, 226,046 rides per day in October 2016, Lyft, with 35,908 rides, Via had 21,698 rides; Juno, 20,426; Gett, 7,227 VIA Launched 2013: 5 cars Jan 2017: 1,500 cars.