Finnish a reactor. Tomas Kåberger. Adjunct Professor Vice President TallOil

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1 Finnish a reactor Tomas Kåberger Adjunct Professor Vice President TallOil 1

2 Is there a choice?

3 Political issues 1. What degree of proliferated capacity for nuclear and radiological weapons shall we accept? 2. Who should pay for nuclear accidents? 3. How many expected deaths from routine emission shall be allowed? 4. Nuclear waste: What shall be allowed? And who should pay? 5. Should support to nuclear power under competitive market regimes be allowed?

4 reactor balance New construction starts Permanently closed

5 Increase in global grid connected power GW Wind Nuclear

6 Finnish a reactor? 2003 deal at Olkiluoto G 3 for a 1500 MW turn-key reactor. Finnish instrument of Kyoto management. Export guarantees, 2,6% nominal interest rate. Contracts without public procurement. Wind and biopower at lower costs. EREF goes to commission. Delays, G 1,5 Areva cost overruns Failed Kyoto instrument Customer costs (45-10)*1500*7000=368 M /year All electricity more expensive 3 G /year Solar electricity may compete... EU court accepts state guaranties! Areva cash flow - 500M first half 2007 (but Goodwill increasing...) Who will provide cash and support for Areva? Why talking about a 6th reactor? Uranium price falling, SCA investing G 2 in Windpower! 6

7 From TVO web-site as viewed : Olkiluoto 3 - Current news in July 2006 At present, the Olkiluoto 3 project is about one year behind the original schedule. Trial generation of electricity at the new plant will start toward the end of 2009, and according to the plant supplier commercial production can be started during the second quarter of The delay has been caused by the time-consuming nature of detailed design work and the production stop at the concrete mixing plant earlier this year, among others.

8 From TVO web-site as viewed : Olkiluoto 3 - Current news in December Delays in the construction works and in manufacturing of the main coolant lines have an effect on the time schedule of the project. Based on the current status, the Plant Supplier has now updated the overall time schedule and informed TVO that the commercial operation of the Olkiluoto 3 plant unit can, according to the present outlook, be started at the turn of , states Mr Landtman.

9 Olkiluoto 3 - Current news: : More than 60 Finnish companies will participate in the investment and have a share of the electricity to be produced by the unit starting commercial operation in The first sea transport to the OL3 site arrived at Olkiluoto on July 15, The lowest part of the metallic liner of the reactor containment was transported by sea from Poland The project is a little more than six months behind the original schedule as concerns the reactor building and the manufacture of some large components. This is due to delays in design work and certain non-conformities in the manufacturing processes. Action has already been initiated to catch up the schedule. TVO believes, however, that although the delays will move the completion of the plant unit back, generation of electricity at OL3 will still start in The total construction project on the power plant site is over 6 months behind the schedule The Olkiluoto 3 project is at present 8-9 months behind the schedule. The objective, however, is still that the new plant will be in operation before the end of At present, the Olkiluoto 3 project is about one year behind the original schedule. Trial generation of electricity at the new plant will start toward the end of 2009, and according to the plant supplier commercial production can be started during the second quarter of The delay has been caused by the time-consuming nature of detailed design work and the production stop at the concrete mixing plant earlier this year, among others The delay in the project schedule has remained unchanged, and is about one year. The new plant unit will generate electricity for the very first time at the end of 2009, and commercial operation is to start in the second quarter of According to the project schedule updated by the plant supplier, commercial operation of OL3 can start at the turn of the year The increase in the delay is primarily attributed to the length of the construction period, which is proving to be longer than anticipated However, it is likely that the new reported delays in the construction works will postpone the start of commercial operation of the plant to 2011, said Mr Landtman.

10 Will it ever be completed? W We do not need to change the time schedule, remaining construction time is constantly around 50 weeks. 10

11 On Tuesday, 25 of September 2007, the European Commission decided that the 610 million EUR export credit guarantee from the French export credit agency COFACE to French nuclear vendor Areva for the Olkiluoto-3 nuclear reactor in Finland does not constitute From EC Decision 416/84 (Against France, not to grant any export aid for a power plant construction in EU Member State Greece) With regard to export aids applied in intra- Community trade, the Commission has always held the view that they are incompatible with the common market within the meaning of the Treaty. This position found support in the Court of Justice (1969 case, referred to above) and was reaffirmed on a number of occasions by the Commission. 11

12 Economic issues British privatisation -> Subsidies of BNFL and BE: G 10 If British Coal were paid the same subsidy per unit as Nuclear Electric, British mines could supply their coal to the generators for free, deliver it free, give the generators 10 a tonne to burn it, and leave themselves with another 10 profit. Malcolm Edwards, BC commercial director

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14 Finnish a reactor!? 2003 deal at Olkiluoto G 3 for a 1500 MW turn-key reactor. Finnish instrument of Kyoto management. Export guarantees, 2,6% nominal interest rate. Contracts without public procurement. Wind and biopower at lower costs. EREF goes to commission. Delays, G 1,5 Areva cost overruns Failed Kyoto instrument Customer costs (45-10)*1500*7000=368 M /year All electricity more expensive 3 G /year Solar electricity may compete... EU court accepts state guaranties! Areva cash flow - 500M first half 2007 (but Goodwill increasing...) Who will provide cash and support for Areva? Why talking about a 6th reactor? Uranium price falling, SCA investing G 2 in Windpower! 14

15 Learning may increase costs PVs Japan nuclear France Simplified from Nakicenovic IIASA presentation IEW 2004

The Development of Renewables

Industrial learning by experience The Development of Renewables Collège de France 215-1-3 Tomas Kåberger Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology visiting fellow/academy/professor