FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

Transcription

1 FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Status of Digital Transformation Deployed in European Utilities Dr. Olivier Stalter Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE BIXPO Energy Leaders Summit Gwangju, November 1 st,

2 Agenda Intersectoral Energy Transition Simulation of Transmission Grids Control of Transmission Grids Now- and Forecasting of PV power Control of Distribution Grids Smart Metering Finally Taking-off More Digital Transformation for Utilities 2

3 Intersectoral Energy Transition Increased Stress for Utilities Source: Increased volatile production, price variations, negative residual loads, bottlenecks in transmission grids, reliability concerns (SAIDI) 3

4 Intersectoral Energy Transition Digitization is Powerful Enabler From phase 2 on, grids must bring renewables into other energy sectors Digitization will enable required flexibility and new electricity markets Source: Fraunhofer ISE 4

5 Simulation of Transmission Grids Grid Development Plan (off-line) EU-TSOs regularly simulate their transmission grid and establish GDP Assumptions in DE-GDP-2030 are 68 GW PV + 73 GW wind (2 to 3x less than transition scenarios) Reinforcements (new line traces, new/more cables on existing poles) HVDC to bring wind from N S and PV from S N via +/- 380 kv DC A-Nord Ultranet SuedLink SuedOstLink each 2 GW until 2025 Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, 5

6 Control of Transmission Grids On-line Operations Strong automation and security via SCADA (ex: substations, power plants, large-scale renewables) 2ry/3ry power and re-dispatch (congestion) digitally controlled Calculation of N-1 criterion which must be satisfied at all times Condition monitoring/simulation (ex: cable, wind speed, T_ambient) Sources: SW Duisburg, ABB Group 6

7 Now- und Forecasting of PV Power Combination of Input Data Satellite-based irradiance data Spatial resolution ~1 x 2 km² Time resolution ~15 Min. Ground measurements ex: 40 stations in Baden- Württemberg (Transnet-BW) Time resolution ~1 Min. Combination of data to precisely calculate regional solar irradiance Sources: EUMETSAT, Fraunhofer ISE 7

8 Now- und Forecasting of PV Power Extrapolation of Power Generation Automatic analysis of GIS-data based on Deep Learning: Location of PV arrays Orientation (ex: 180 south) Inclination (ex: 30 tilt) 214 S 28 Tilt 218 S / 37 Tilt 218 S 34 Tilt Quality control algorithms based on real output power of distributed PV Use of data base of PV systems to extrapolate generation (ZIP codes) Source: Fraunhofer ISE 8

9 Control of Distribution Grids At the Very Beginning of Digitization What counts in distribution grids Voltage at knots / customers Equipment stress (ex: transf.) Digitization in progress Grid simulation vs. extension Automatic tap changers Inverters with P/Q control Is this enough under the assumption of more PV, EVs, HP? Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, Maschinenfabrik Reinhausen 9

10 Control of Distribution Grids At the Very Beginning of Digitization Need for reinforcement in typical LV grids (in %) Local node control is not sufficient for scenarios with more PV, EV, HP Options under evaluation / test Coordinated LV control (upgrade of local comm.) Centralized MV control (ex: IEC 60870, MODBUS TCP) Digitization and shared control avoids LV/MV grid reinforcements LOC LV+MV w/o comm. LV+MV coordinated STATCOM Source: Fraunhofer ISE 10

11 Smart Metering Finally Taking-off European Roll-out IT, SWE and FIN early adopters ~36 Mio. Smart Meters installed on by ENEL SpA in Italy Var. tariffs, net metering, remote load control, consumption monitor Other states following (EU directive 80% of clients equipped by 2020) Opposition and concerns: no finan. benefit, privacy, security, health 11 Sources: European Commission, ENEL, canardpc.com

12 More Digital Transformation for Utilities Applications are waiting at the Door Battery systems (> in GE) digitized but in proprietary clouds and of little use for utilities Behind the meter in buildings & quarters (P2P private/public space) E-Mobility as sector-coupling option and autonomous driving Secured transactions with origin tracing for consumer confidence Sources: SMA, Getty Images, Car and Driver 12

13 Conclusions Energy system and utilities come from a century-old analog world Simultaneous challenges volatile production decentral structure P2P, block-chain, big data Incremental progresses instead of disruptions long adoption times acceleration is needed! Source: 13

14 Thank you for your attention Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems Dr. Olivier Stalter 14