Future Mobility Automotive Roundtable Beijing. by Yuwei Jin and Dr. Dandan Wang,

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1 Future Mobility Automotive Roundtable Beijing by Yuwei Jin and Dr. Dandan Wang,

2 Spiegel Institute Mannheim Owner-managed family business 1950 established by Prof. Dr. Bernt Spiegel, since 1994 in 2 nd generation Automobile and automotive focus Support with the product development of vehicles, systems and components Customer integrated product development Support in every phase of the product development process with specially developed tools Interdisciplinary team 130 experts of different fields of study Page 2, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

3 Our locations Hamburg Wolfsburg New York Ingolstadt Beijing Shanghai Munich Stuttgart Page 3, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

4 Our clients Page 4, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

5 The experience is the guiding principle Not the objective characteristics of a product is reality in market psychology, but only the consumer s perception and the consumer experience. Prof. Dr. Bernt Spiegel (1956) Page 5, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

6 Page 6, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim, Consumers

7 Market economy & political change transformed Chinese consumers Consume for a better my life Consume to enjoy life Consume to improve life Consume to live a life Long and turbulent history of war and revolutions Closed and planned economy Everyone was equally poor let a small group of people become rich first Semi-opened market and limited products Consume to meet the most basic needs One child generation Increased marketization level Open product supply buy anything any amount GDP per capita was double of the one of 1980 Foreign culture and more foreign products entered the market Became the third world biggest economy Abundant choices of products/life style Multi dimensional, diversified consuming needs Sending kids abroad and immigrating to other countries became the trend E-commerce became a dominant consuming mode Consume to realize green, health, individualization, being different Consuming decisions are more practical and rational 1970s 1980s 1990s 1978 Reform and opening 1990s 2000s 2000s 2010s 2010s 2020s Page 7, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

8 Main force car consumers characteristics in constant transformation 1 Stronger middle class Consumers are becoming more confident in and dependent on machines and technologies in daily life Increased expectations on advanced technology in cars 4 Greater machine control With the growth of China s middle class, auto consumption demand among this group is gradually rising With a more rational, cautious, practical and economical mind Consumer development trend China s female car consumers are a rapidly growing demographic that makes up to 1/3 of the market They pay more attention to exterior design, quality, safety and brand Younger consumers Post-80s and 90s-generation consumers main force Purchasing decision: individuality, economic compact cars Less status oriented but practical purposes ( ordinary commodities ) 2 More female consumers 3 Page 8, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

Young customers (post-80s and 90s) are the main force of the consuming market Post-80s and 90s stand for over half of the overall consumer group 60s- or elder Post-90s generations: customers: 17% 13%

9 Young customers (post-80s and 90s) are the main force of the consuming market Post-80s and 90s stand for over half of the overall consumer group 60s- or elder Post-90s generations: customers: 17% 13% As the single child generation more individualistic Live the moment as life motto, like new experience Post-70s customers: 29% Post-80s customers: 41% Much influenced by Western culture and familiar with Western products/trends source: yiche & Roland Berger (2015) Car Consumption Trend and User Insight in China Page 9, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

Young female buyers are gradually becoming a strong vehicle consumer group 36% of new car buyers were female in 2014* Average age of female car owners was

Appearance Comfort They pay attention to the quality of life, and like to show their individual personality Models bought by females are more expensive

10 Young female buyers are gradually becoming a strong vehicle consumer group 36% of new car buyers were female in 2014* Average age of female car owners was younger than male, about 2/3 of them were post-80s and 90s * Young Chinese ladies are well educated with good income or wealth Personal feelings Quality Appearance Comfort They pay attention to the quality of life, and like to show their individual personality Models bought by females are more expensive and German brands are their favourite *source: JD Power (2015) Female car buyers trend research Page 10, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

11 Page 11, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim, Demands

China remains the biggest market in the world: SUVs and MPVs are main contributors to steady sales increase Total Sales of Sedan 3206216 2909000 Total Sales of Passenger Vehicles 1ST. Q.

12 China remains the biggest market in the world: SUVs and MPVs are main contributors to steady sales increase Total Sales of Sedan Total Sales of Passenger Vehicles 1ST. Q ST. Q Total Sales of SUV ST. Q ST. Q ST. Q ST. Q Total Sales of MPV Source: CPCA Sales Report 1ST. Q ST. Q Page 12, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

13 Passenger vehicle sales steadily increase with the market s internal structure change Overall, passenger vehicle sales steadily increased in the past five years Increase rate did slow down in the past couple of years Sedan shows continuously decreasing market demand, while demands of SUV and MPV are steadily increasing Passenger car sales and increase rate in past 5 years Market change in past 5 years ,0% 23,3% ,0% ,0% 13,0% 8,7% 9,6% 10,0% 7,6% 5,0% 0,0% % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 58% 82% 81% 73% 68% 11% 8% 10% 4% 4% 14% 15% 19% 22% 31% Annual sales (10,000) Increase rate SUV MPV Sedan Source: CPCA Sales Report Page 13, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

Chinese local brands of SUVs and MPVs are dominating the market Top 10 Models: Sedan VW Lavida VW Sagitar VW Santana VW Jetta 1 1 1 Buick Excelle Ford Foris Ford Focus Chevrolet Cruz Geely Emgrand

14 Chinese local brands of SUVs and MPVs are dominating the market Top 10 Models: Sedan VW Lavida VW Sagitar VW Santana VW Jetta Buick Excelle Ford Foris Ford Focus Chevrolet Cruz Geely Emgrand Toyota Carolla Sedan market is still dominated by German and American brands Chinese brands sedan sales volumn decrease 21% in Q SUV VW Tiguan Buick Envision 8 models of Chinese brands in total 8 out of top ten models of SUVs are Chinese brands Chinese brands SUV sales volumn increase 58% in Q Chinese SUV sales volumn shares 58.4% of SUV market MPV All top 10 models are from Chinese makers All top 10 models are pure Chinese brands BEV&PHEV All top 10 models are from Chinese makers All top 10 models are from local brands Source: CPCA Sales Report Page 14, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

15 With the opening of the markets, the car is now turning into a symbol of individuality Car = means of transport Until 1980: Almost no private cars Car = status symbol (German car brands as THE status symbol ) 1980s : First international joint ventures Car = sign of individuality 2001: Accession of China to the WTO and market opening for imported foreign cars Compared to Europe, the Chinese population got access to private cars rather late. State directed economy: Under governmental control only few passenger cars were built. Market Opening: until 2001 only Joint Ventures with Chinese firms were possible and imported cars were not allowed until then. Perception of cars changed throughout the time. Page 15, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

16 Page 16, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim, Product

17 Cars reflecting individuality and satisfying practical purposes are more favoured Young generations prefer to buy compact cars with more economical price Big sized cars, 7-seater SUVs and MPVs are becoming popular, even to female car buyers for family usage Good and uncommon exterior design, practical functions and sporty character are important purchase criteria for post-80s and 90s Fashionable look is a most important attraction for female car buyers, followed by internal functions, safety, technology, and individual configurations Increased expectations on advanced technology in cars Page 17, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

18 Users are aware of advantages of autonomous driving Advantages of autonomous driving In case of emergency brake computer can do better than human beings. 7,3 The relative advantages of machines over human beings are most significant in citical situations In case of critical driving situations computer can react faster than human beings. 7,5 In case of critical driving situations, computer can make better decisions than human beings. 5,9 The relative advantages of the machines decrease concerning the decision ability I think that a man is always better in driving than a computer. 6,3 1= totally disagree ; 10= fully agree Page 18, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

Low active adoption rate and even lower usage rate of ADAS Users had

technologies Unsatisfactory experience/ lack of trust Infotainment functions

usability of their smart phones Alternative method High cost High cost to build

19 Low active adoption rate and even lower usage rate of ADAS Users had unsatisfactory experience with the technology which causes distrust in the new technologies Unsatisfactory experience/ lack of trust Infotainment functions can be easily realized via smart phones and users are familiar with the usability of their smart phones Alternative method High cost High cost to build in/purchase intelligent technology Page 19, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

20 Consumer expectations of future cars (I) Automated car needs to be recognizable An automated car needs to Have a very different interior design Be clearly recognized by other road users for safety reasons More demand for interaction with personalized mobile devices like smartphone Synchronization of Apps Split screen on big display in center console where Apps from smartphone can be displayed Input via voice recognition on smartphone or tablet are an attractive solution Page 20, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

21 Consumer expectations of future cars (II) Interaction with surroundings is important leisure activity Intelligent voice recognition is the basic of some most-loved conceptual ideas GPS-Tour Guide With the help of GPS-standpoints lots of tourist information could be known Entertainment and education programs for children: cities, buildings, railways will be explained in detail Information will be showen on display as 3D simulation /Skype/Messenger-Assistent Messages can be sent as an audio-message Words recognised by the voice system will be shown on HUD Most used wordings such as greetings can be saved Detailed messages can be read aloud, heard in earphone or shown on HUD Page 21, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

22 Consumer expectations of future cars (III) Spend free time with passengers together Change of interior atmosphere: promote privacy, relaxation and stress management Passenger-Interaction Displays on the backside of the front seats With the displays passengers can interact with each other such as discussing about a restaurant or a sight Configuration of interior atmosphere System can recognize the mood of drivers or a certain situation (e.g. the way home) The driver can set the interior atmosphere for every special situation (lighting, music etc.) beforehand Synchronization of passengers smartphones All smartphone functions can also be used on the displays Page 22, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

23 Consumer expectations of future cars (IV) Drivers seat provides primarily relaxation Removable tablet PC is desired Relax seats Foldable seats Removable tablet Laptop dockingstation Seats can be driven, stretched and revolved (if the driver doesn t want to sit towards the driving direction, he can revolve it) Footrests are retractable There are relaxingprograms on the seats such as stretching, vibrating massage, etc. Seats can be revolved backward Front seats can be folded together Back seats will be the central element for the car Tablet is upwards extendable on the central console Tablet should be set ready in advance by the manufacture Additional functions (except for the conventional functions) can be controlled with the tablet Laptop is plugged into a docking-station under the seat or stored in the glove compartment Contents are displayed on a screen in the center console Laptop is controlled with external wireless keyboard Page 23, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

24 Consumer expectations of future cars (V) Steering wheel in automated car is multifunctional Steering wheel/joystick Retractable steering wheel Physical/Virtual steering wheel The steering wheel can be used as a joystick for video games during the autonomous driving phase Windshield can be used as screen Steering wheel can be folded away during the autonomous driving Seats are 360 revolvable Beside the physical steering wheel there is also a virtual steering wheel on the touchdisplay With the virtual steering wheel drivers can also control the car Page 24, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

25 I should be able to link my phone to my automated car A normal day with my automated car - businessman The respondents hopes to link his phone to his car even in the bedroom every morning, so it already adjusts the seats, mirrors [etc.]. And alerts the driver of the gas level and tire pressures. The driver gets in the car which already has his setting so the car makes him a morning drink. The driver can check his calendar and make phone calls with the Bluetooth phone. He can also switch on his laptop and do his work. The car is a combination of transportation and portable office. At the end of day, the car can tell the driver how long he drove, how far he drove and it can also give him a calendar reminder to tell him what is happening the next day. Page 25, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

26 I would enjoy the drive and relax and not be so stressed out A normal day with my car housewife The respondent hopes to start her "to do list" while driving. She can put on her makeup, drink her coffee and talk to her kids. The car will take her to run her errands and anywhere else she needs to go by inputting her to do list. The car will know when to charge automatically. She would enjoy the drive and relax and not be so stressed out. The navigation system will know automatically how often she needs to go to these places and will send her a notice on a daily basis. Her car will be her personal assistant. Page 26, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

27 Page 27, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim, Future prospects

Future mobility Car ownership is losing importance Mobility choices are diversifying, practical purposes as selection criteria on-demand mobility Engine concepts are diversified Vehicles will become

28 Future mobility Car ownership is losing importance Mobility choices are diversifying, practical purposes as selection criteria on-demand mobility Engine concepts are diversified Vehicles will become more intelligent and seamlessly connected Border between personal and public transportation is getting blurry Mobile devices are the gateway to mobility Page 28, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

29 Thank you! Spiegel Institut Mannheim GmbH & Co. KG Yuwei Jin, Office Shanghai 25/F China Fortune Tower, 1568 Century Ave. Pudong District, Shanghai Phone URL Page 29, Future Mobility - Spiegel Institut Mannheim,

2016 Car Tech Impact Study. January 2016

2016 Car Tech Impact Study. January 2016 2016 Car Tech Impact Study January 2016 Objectives & Methodology Objectives Identify vehicle technologies that are currently being used and that are must haves for future vehicle purchases Determine how