SUVs, CUVs, and STWs
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1 SUVs, CUVs, and STWs How and What Will Consumers Choose? Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director North American Sales Detroit, 6 October 2005 EVOLVING CONSUMER PREFERENCES Challenging Opportunities
2 Introduction Sport utility vehicles have been the hottest products in the U.S. market for more than 15 years. Because of this, auto manufacturers have flooded the marketplace with every conceivable size and style of SUV. Even consumers are now bewildered with the variety of choices of SUV available to them. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 2
3 The SUV Legacy: A Brief History Chevy Suburban, arguably the first SUV Jeep introduces civilian version, first SUV with 4WD IHC Compact Scout Jeep unveils Wagoneer, the first modern SUV Ford introduces the compact Bronco Chevy rolls out fullsize Blazer Blazer & Bronco become young male Baby Boomer s ride of choice Jeep Cherokee 4-Door makes SUV family friendly First midsize SUV: Ford Explorer First entry CUV: Toyota RAV4 & Honda CR-V First volume Premium CUV: Lexus RX300 First volume Premium SUV: Lincoln Navigator First Entry STW: PT Cruiser First mid CUV: Toyota Highlander First mid-stw: Chrysler Pacifica First Large CUV: GMC Acadia Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 3
4 Definitions Recognizing the wide variety of sport utility type vehicles on the market, Global Insight has divided the utility market into three primary segments: Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) Crossover Utility Vehicles (CUVs) Sport Touring Wagons (STWs) Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 4
5 SUV What Is It? An SUV is a Sport Utility Vehicle. Generally built using body on frame truck platforms. Heavy duty construction yields high curb weights. Most have low-gear ratios for off road performance. Rear-wheel-drive with 4x4 as an option. SUVs tend to have high towing capacity. Ride is firm and rugged. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 5
6 CUV What Is It? A CUV is a Crossover Utility Vehicle. To most consumers, CUVs and SUVs are the same thing. But, CUVs are built from car, rather than light truck platforms. CUVs trade off-road ruggedness for improved fuel economy, ride, handling, and ergonomics. CUVs are more truck-like in image than STWs. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 6
7 STW What Is It? The sport touring wagon (STW) is the modern interpretation of the classic station wagon. But, STWs differ from station wagons in several ways: Sportier image. Higher roofline for command seating position. Shorter rear overhang. Available AWD (in most cases). STWs are more car-like than CUVs. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 7
8 SUV Sales Forecast THOUSAND UNITS Between , SUV sales decline 23% as consumers shift to other vehicle concepts. Consumers will be hardpressed to give up the utility, driving position, and road presence to move back to sedans. But, towing capacity and need for 4x4 does support a foundation of sales for SUVs. The CUV and STW segments are likely to be the largest benefactors. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 8
9 Why Are SUVs Popular? SUVs are a nearly perfect fit with Baby Boomer me first values: Command seating position. Go anywhere, do anything capability. Get out of my way look in your rear view mirror. Bigger than you for safety. Because of this perfect fit, SUV sales will be more robust than some are forecasting, although they will decline. Generation X uses full size SUVs as family haulers: They purchase more SUVs per capita than any other group. They provide an alternative to embarrassing minivans. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 9
10 SUV Segment Shares PREMIUM SUV, 9.5% ENTRY SUV, 15.8% PREMIUM SUV, 10.2% ENTRY SUV, 20.8% FULLSIZE SUV, 23.9% FULLSIZE SUV, 24.3% million units MID SUV, 50.8% PREMIUM SUV, 11.6% 2015 ENTRY SUV, 22.1% MID SUV, 44.8% million units FULLSIZE SUV, 24.3% million units MID SUV, 42.0% Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 10
11 SUV Micro-Segments NUMBER OF SUV SEGMENTS PER YEAR The number of SUV micro-segments exhibited a steady growth, but peaks at 46 this year. After 2005, SUV microsegments began to decline as CUVs encroach and consumers buy due to need versus want. Also, there are very few models being added to this segment. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 11
12 CUV Sales THOUSAND UNITS Between , CUV sales are expected to bloom from less than 440,000 units to nearly 2.85 million units. Successful CUVs provide a near perfect combination of expressive, muscular design and AWD without the stiff ride and poor gas mileage of SUVs. New models and demographics drive the growth Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 12
13 Why Are CUVs Popular? Well-executed CUVs provide consumers with many of the benefits of an SUV, but minus the disadvantages: Better fuel economy. Better chassis dynamics. Better ergonomics. The most successful CUVs are indistinguishable visually from SUVs: Ford Escape. Chevrolet Equinox. Honda Pilot. Even Baby Boomers will make the switch to well-executed CUVs, thinking they are continuing to buy an SUV. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 13
14 CUV Segment Shares MID PREMIUM CUV, 17.7% 2005 LARGE PREMIUM CUV, 1.2% MID PREMIUM CUV, 13.9% 2010 LARGE PREMIUM CUV, 1.6% ENTRY PREMIUM CUV, 2.1% MID CUV, 24.9% million units ENTRY CUV, 54.2% MID PREMIUM CUV, 14.8% 2015 ENTRY PREMIUM CUV, 8.3% LARGE CUV, 8.7% LARGE PREMIUM CUV, 1.4% MID CUV, 22.1% ENTRY CUV, 45.3% million units ENTRY PREMIUM CUV, 8.4% ENTRY CUV, 46.1% LARGE CUV, 8.0% million units MID CUV, 21.4% Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 14
15 CUV Micro-Segments NUMBER OF CUV-SEGMENTS PER YEAR The number of CUV microsegments exhibited a steady increase as more and more models are added. Currently there are 28 microsegments (up from just 7 in 2000) with a forecast of 47 by Micro-segments are added more judiciously here SUVs peaked at 46 in 2005 but CUVs don t exceed that mark until Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 15
16 STW Sales Forecast Between , sport touring wagons grow from under 90,000 units to nearly 800,000 units. THOUSAND UNITS While the growth is impressive, it still is fairly limited for a truck sector. It s still a bit questionable whether this body style appeals to consumers Is it aggressive enough? Is the seating position high enough? Is it sexy? Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 16
17 Why Are STWs Popular? STWs are the classic station wagon brought up to date. STWs provide the comfort, dynamics, and economy of cars, with some of the functionality and style of a CUV. Ultimately, the STW could become the mommy mobile of Generation Y: Generation Y will not want the minivans their parents used when they were kids. Properly executed, the STW can provide Generation Y with a kid hauler tailored to their unique values. Entry STWs like the Dodge Caliber appear poised to substitute for compact sedans for other generations as well. Consumers used to the versatility of SUVs and minivans will appreciate the enhanced usability of an STW vs. a small coupe or sedan. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 17
18 STW Segment Shares PREMIUM STW, 5.5% PREMIUM STW, 8.2% MID STW, 49.0% ENTRY STW, 45.6% MID STW, 41.5% ENTRY STW, 50.3% 441,912 units PREMIUM STW, 9.0% ,913 units MID STW, 40.7% ENTRY STW, 50.3% 764,322 units Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 18
19 STW Micro-Segments NUMBER OF STW SEGMENTS PER YEAR The number of STW microsegments jumped from 9 to 15 in 2004, but the growth stabilizes at 23 by 2010, half of CUV micro-segments With a more limited potential market for this bodystyle, fewer micro-segments are required to reach the audience Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 19
20 Sales of Cars and Trucks in North America U.S. Car U.S. Truck 48.9% 51.1% 54.8% 45.2% 57.0% 43.0% Can Car Can Truck In 2010, Canada reaches same car truck split as U.S. had in % 55.0% 47.4% 52.6% 48.8% 51.2% Truck gain, but cars continue to dominate in Mexico throughout the forecast Mex Car Mex Truck 37.5% 38.8% 31.0% 69.0% 62.5% 61.2% Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 20
21 Share Evolution Light Truck Segments MID VANS, 12.1% 2005 FULL VANS, 3.2% CUV, 20.1% MID VANS, 10.1% 2010 FULL VANS, 3.1% CUV, 27.2% SUV, 21.7% SUV, 25.7% STW, 4.8% PICKUPS, 33.6% MID VANS, 10.1% 2015 FULL VANS, 3.0% CUV, 27.1% STW, 7.5% PICKUPS, 30.3% million units million units SUV, 22.0% million units STW, 7.3% PICKUPS, 30.6% Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 21
22 Summary While the combined total of SUVs, CUVs, STWs, and vans will increase only slightly between now and 2015, the share of CUVs and STWs will increase, at the expense of vans and SUVs. Consumers will gravitate to these more efficient carbased vehicles as long as CUVs and STWs provide the right visual image. Gas prices fuel the fire for CUVs and STWs, but consumers started to show a preference for CUVs even before the current energy situation. Copyright 2005 Global Insight, Inc GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE DETROIT 22
23 Rebecca A. Lindland Associate Director North American Sales Tel:
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