A Strategic Roadmap to the Market Development of Certified Heavy Duty Gaseous Fuel (methane/lpg)-diesel Engines

Transcription

1 A Strategic Roadmap to the Market Development of Certified Heavy Duty Gaseous Fuel (methane/lpg)-diesel Engines Based upon the results of the Critical Issues Workshop: Dual-Fuel (Gaseous/Diesel) Engines: Opportunities, Challenges & Strategies to Expand the Market 30 & 31 March 2010 Brussels Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler CEO

2 Purpose of Workshop Identify technical options: Strengths & weaknesses Challenges (technical, regulatory, marketing, etc.) Opportunities Customer experience Identify regulatory framework Develop a strategic approach to create a regulatory framework for gaseous/diesel engine certification

3 Participants at the Workshop 75 experts and stakeholders from 17 countries & 4 continents. OEMs National governments & European Commission Tier 1 & Tier 2 dual fuel system suppliers Emissions experts Customers Etc.

4 Current State of the Dual Fuel Sector CNG & LNG

5 Survey of Gaseous/Diesel Engine Developers & Suppliers* The challenge of sorting out who s who. Confused references between bi-fuel gaseous vehicles and dual fuel diesel systems must be determined. What stage of development or maketing are they at? Credible sales data is lacking. Relationship between various dual fuel system developers, engine manufacturers and vehicle producers further complicates the identification process *Overview Supplier Survey of the Dual Fuel/Gaseous-Diesel Engines, Clean Fuels Consulting, Brussels,

6 Principal Dual-Fuel Developers and Suppliers Company Fuel Technology Bosch Clean Air Power Hardstaff Westport CNG CNG & LNG CNG & LNG LNG

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8 Dual-Fuel Conversions and Suppliers Fuel Number Location LPG 7 Australia (2), UK (2), Germany, NL CNG 5 Pakistan, NZ, China, Argentina, USA, Italy LPG & CNG 6 Thailand (2), Australia, NL, Italy TOTAL 18 11

9 Engine & Vehicle Manufacturers Weichai Power

10 System Development Currently Underway China Automotive Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) (Chongqing, China) Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) (Puna, India) Propane Education & Research Council (w/ University of Mississippi, USA)

11 Major Non-Automotive CNG Dual-Fuel Suppliers Energy Conversions Inc: Locomotive, Electricity generation, Offshore drilling Greaves Cotton: Electricity generators MAN: marine applications Wartsila: Ships, CHP, Electricity production Woodward Governors: Electricity production

12 Framework of Dual Fuel Supply Chain Primary Relationship Secondary Relationship System Suppliers Tier 1 Engine Manufacturers Vehicle Manufacturers Engines Bodies DF Customers: - Buses - Trucks - Waste - Off-Road - Marine - Rail Tier 2 - Westport - Clean Air Power - Hardstaff System Developers & Conversions

13 How many D-F vehicles are on the road worldwide? Based on company claims, some 3000 DF road vehicles from various customer classes have been identified At this moment we do not know the total worldwide dual fuel vehicle population Indications are that the market is expanding (judging from survey identifying ~33 companies in the business)

14 FINDINGS FROM THE WORKSHOP

15 Emissions performance is critical to making dual-fuel engines a market success As more diesel is replaced, smoke and particulate emissions decrease significantly; to 90% by some claims. CO 2 reductions vary widely, particularly considering part-or-full-load operation, however, consistent claims of 9-25% reductions can be verified in some engines; others are significantly lower but still are improved over normal diesel operation.

16 Emissions performance is critical to making dual-fuel engines a market success Unburned hydrocarbons remains an issue for both LPG and methane-diesel engines. Regulatory treatment of total hydrocarbons (THC) versus non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) will be a critical factor affecting the emissions performance and costs of gaseousdiesel engines. Dual-fuel systems designed to be compatible with specific OEM diesel engines will tend to have better emissions performance than many retrofit dual-fuel systems.

17 Economics for truck operators is favorable but challenging Economics based on the cost differential of the DF system & the % diesel fuel is replaced & the price of natural gas or LPG versus diesel LPG customers using dual-fuel retrofit systems with up to 45% substitution of diesel found 8-13 months payback on investment in their DF systems. The longer payback was on urban waste trucks driving 50,000 km per year while the shorter paybacks came with vehicles driving 120, ,000 km/yr. 30% LPG substitution for a Dutch trucking company resulted in 15% savings on fuel costs per vehicle with an overall return on investment of 1.5 years.

18 Difficult regulatory challenges must be addressed to enhance market opportunities Should these engines be tested only as a diesel; as a diesel with multi-fuel capability; as a gaseous engine; or both, and under what conditions? What test cycles? ESC, ETC, other? Comply with diesel & gaseous fuel requirements (i.e. OBD, fuel quality, etc.)? ESC has a THC only; ETC (for positive ignition gaseous engines) includes NMHC. Applicable for CI & PI engines? PM regulations not applicable for gaseous engines but with diesel? What after-treatement now may be required?

19 CONCLUSIONS The best economics are for the high annual kilometre HDV segment using large amounts of fuel. Market potential of dual-fuel technologies increases significantly when the capital cost of the vehicles is reduced, vehicle and engine offerings expand, and fuelling availability is facilitated. Uncertainties re: maintenance, operations, fuelling present more challenges to customers Emissions reductions vary but will be improved with the entry of OEMs versus some of the less certain retrofit systems. In either case, the emissions performance must be substantiated by the system suppliers.

20 CONCLUSIONS Customer adoption of dual-fuel engines is more challenging than using dedicated diesel engines and vehicles due to initial uncertainty regarding engine durability, maintenance costs, operational aspects of new engines, and unfamiliarity of using different fuelling technologies and practices. Worldwide certification regulations at the UN for OEM and retrofit technologies provide a mandate or model for national certification and will significantly enhance availability of high quality dual-fuel systems.

21 CONCLUSIONS Support for certification regulations from UN Contracting Parties (member states) and dualfuel engine and vehicle manufacturers for both natural gas and LPG will be required to mainstream the technology. Future dual-fuel markets will depend upon a regulatory approach suited toward both dual-fuel OEM technologies and retrofit systems.

22 Regulatory Landscape to Develop Dual-Fuel Engine Certification Regulations European Commission DG Enterprise/Industry UN / ECE Inland Transport Committee Motor Vehicle Emissions Group (MVEG) Light Duty Heavy Duty GRPE Informal Group Gaseous Fuel Vehicles (GFV) WP29 Delegation of work to GRSG GRSG (CNG/LPG Retrofit & Safety) Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Links to R.115? Euro VI OEM-Related Gas RelatedSafety R 85 Power Measurement R 49 Emissions HDVs Retrofit R.115 CNG/LPG Systems, Emissions & Safety R-110 CNG Components & installation R-67 LPG Components & installation OEM & Retrofit Pathways: to-be-determined

23 A Strategic Roadmap to the Market Development of Certified Heavy Duty Gaseous Fuel (methane/lpg)-diesel Engines Based upon the results of the Critical Issues Workshop: Dual-Fuel (Gaseous/Diesel) Engines: Opportunities, Challenges & Strategies to Expand the Market 30 & 31 March 2010 Brussels Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler CEO