Housing NOW Ontario Region

Transcription

1 Housing Market Information Housing NOW Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Date Released: First Quarter 2008 New Home Market Ontario Home Starts Remain Resilient in Ontario new home construction edged lower in the fourth quarter and in. Ontario all area starts declined to 68,123 units last year, down from 73,417 units in. After peaking during the period, the longer-term trend for Figure 1 Ontario housing starts has been one of high starts levels gradually edging lower. Weakness in the multi-family home segment, led by the apartment sector, combined with inclement weather in the fourth quarter contributed to declining new construction activity last year. Meanwhile, single-detached home starts remained remarkably resilient in particularly in Ontario s more expensive markets. Tight resale markets, Ontario Housing Starts Decline Slightly in Table of Contents 1 New Home Market Ontario Home Starts Remain Resilient in 2 Resale Market Ontario Resale Market Posts New Record 2 Economic & Demographic Overview Ontario Economic Growth Slows in Back Half of Ontario Is Losing People 120, ,000 4 Tables 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Source: CMHC subscribe NOW! Access CMHC s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at View print, download or subscribe to get market information ed to you on the day it is released. New! CMHC s electronic suite of national standardized products is now available for free.

2 stable job growth and low mortgage carrying costs kept Ontario home starts above historical averages. The key story in was the resilience of the single-detached home segment. More expensive single-detached dwelling units remained on par with levels registered in. More recently, demand for single-detached homes has benefited from a household s ability to amortize a mortgage over longer periods of time. More home financing options along with rising incomes have helped temper the rising cost of single-detached homes providing more households with the opportunity to purchase. Ontario s more inexpensive multifamily home sector, led by apartment and town home units, remained the tightest segment of the residential housing market in. Rising home prices in recent years have encouraged price sensitive first-time buyers to increase demand for modestly priced housing. Furthermore, strong economic fundamentals along with a rising Canadian dollar encouraged international investor interest in Canadian residential real estate. Builders have responded by launching more apartment and town home projects into the market place and this translated into stronger sales. However, due to capacity constraints, fewer apartment projects were reaching the completion stage and a backlog of projects await construction moving into A closer look at Ontario s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) shows that strong starts activity last year occurred in Greater Sudbury, Ottawa, Kitchener and Hamilton while cooler construction activity prevailed in Windsor, St. Catharines- Niagara and Oshawa. Slower economic growth in the US combined with a rising Canadian dollar continue to have an adverse effect on centers such as Windsor and St. Catharines-Niagara centers that are more dependent on the US for business opportunities. Resale Market Ontario Resale Market Posts New Record Ontario existing home sales eclipsed all records in, finishing strongly in the fourth quarter. Ontario home sales reached 213,379 units last year, up 9.5 per cent from levels. Stable job growth, more choice in the resale market and lower mortgage carrying costs kept resale market activity buoyant. New listings were unable to keep pace with the robust pace in home sales during. Ontario s salesto-new-listings ratio, a leading indicator of future growth in home prices, edged higher through the year. Most major Ontario resale markets experienced tighter housing market conditions during the year. While the longer term trend in this indicator has pointed towards more balanced market conditions across Ontario, home prices in the interim have continued to outpace the general rate of inflation. This is particularly true for Hamilton, Sudbury, Kitchener and Brantford which boast the hottest resale markets across Ontario. Meanwhile, conditions in Windsor s housing market continued to cool as home prices moderated given the impact of a high Canadian dollar. Economic & Demographic Overview Ontario Economic Growth Slows in Back Half of Ontario economic growth likely slowed in the back half of following a solid pace of growth in the first half of the year. While demand for Ontario goods began to slow late last year, Ontario producers continued to add goods to inventory through the year likely resulting in slower output growth as came to an end. Ontario annual GDP growth was estimated to have marginally outpaced growth registered in. A rising Canadian dollar and slower US economic growth made Canadian exports less appealing. While the export sector maintained its drag on growth through much of last year, domestic demand remained strong fuelled by consumer spending and business spending on machinery and equipment. Ontario job growth and the cost of borrowing are two critical ingredients feeding into housing demand. Labor productivity growth across the province slowed as producers were slow to shed labor in the face of slowing output in the final months of the year. In fact job growth last year outpaced employment growth in but was still below the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 2

3 Figure 2 Bank Rate Falls in Fourth Quarter 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bank of Canada rose and the availability of credit became tighter. The rising cost of credit was evident as lenders refrained from dropping long term borrowing rates or offering deep discounts on posted rates despite declining long term bond yields. News was more favorable for borrowers at the short end of the market as the Bank of Canada dropped its overnight rates in the fourth quarter in a bid to ensure liquidity in the banking system. This led to a decline in prime lending rates and rates charged for variable rate mortgage products. annual average rate of growth registered in the past decade. With the exception of construction and the mining sector, goods-producing companies in the auto and forestry sector continue to shed labor as they adjust to a high dollar, high energy prices and increased global competition. By far, the bulk of job gains were registered in the service sector of the economy, with health care, education, finance, insurance and real estate leading the hiring parade. Ontario s domestic economy helped insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn. A high Canadian dollar and slower growth late last year in both Canada and the US dampened inflationary pressures. Canada s core consumer price index decelerated throughout the year, particularly during the fourth quarter as it dropped below the Bank of Canada s mid-point target level. US sub-prime mortgage concerns along with reports of easing inflationary pressures caused risk-averse investors to exit equity markets and park their investment funds in fixed income securities. Required rates of return on more risky securities backed by mortgages Ontario Is Losing People The story of booming commodity prices and a migratory pull to western Canada continued in. A very strong energy-based economy and low unemployment rates in Western Canada have continued to attract migrants from Ontario, albeit in smaller numbers vis-à-vis. On the international front, western Canada was a draw even among international migrants as Ontario s share and volume of new international migrants moderated in. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 3

4 HOUSING NOW REPORT TABLES Available in ALL reports: 1 Housing Activity Summary of Region 2 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Current Quarter 2.1 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 3 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Current Quarter 3.1 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 4 Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range 5 MLS Residential Activity 6 Economic Indicators Available in SELECTED Reports: 1.2 History of Housing Activity (once a year) 2.2 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Quarter 2.3 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 2.4 Starts by and by Intended Market Current Quarter 2.5 Starts by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.2 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Quarter 3.3 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.4 Completions by and by Intended Market Current Quarter 3.5 Completions by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date SYMBOLS n/a Not applicable * Totals may not add up due to co-operatives and unknown market types ** Percent change > 200% - Nil -- Amount too small to be expressed SA Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 4

5 Table 1: Housing Activity Summary of Fourth Quarter Urban Centres Single Freehold Semi Ownership Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row Rental Apt. & Other Rural Centres STARTS Q4 8, , , ,242 17,301 Q4 8,179 1,058 1, , ,278 17,626 % Change Year-to-date 33,198 3,936 8, ,789 11, ,859 5,348 68,123 Year-to-date 33,132 4,034 7, ,123 15, ,895 5,636 73,417 % Change UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q4 18,842 2,284 6, ,335 30, ,193 3,236 68,745 Q4 17,220 2,052 5, ,394 28, ,284 3,208 64,837 % Change COMPLETIONS Q4 8,923 1,012 2, , ,787 17,990 Q4 8,482 1,072 1, , ,169 17,101 % Change Year-to-date 31,633 3,606 7, ,813 9, ,847 5,274 64,139 Year-to-date 33,980 4,443 7, ,479 15, ,513 6,461 74,481 % Change COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q4 1, n/a 3,833 Q4 1, n/a 3,860 % Change n/a -0.7 ABSORBED Q4 7, , , n/a 14,729 Q4 7,355 1,008 1, , n/a 13,382 % Change n/a 10.1 Year-to-date 28,981 3,523 7, ,684 9, ,289 n/a 55,091 Year-to-date 30,671 4,377 7, ,307 14, ,997 n/a 63,009 % Change n/a Total* Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey, M arket Absorption Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 5

6 Table 1.2: History of Housing Starts of Single Freehold Semi Urban Centres Ownership Condominium Row, Apt. & Other Single Row and Semi Apt. & Other Rental Single, Semi, and Row Apt. & Other Rural Centres 33,198 3,936 8, ,789 11, ,859 5,348 68,123 % Change ,132 4,034 7, ,123 15, ,895 5,636 73,417 % Change ,475 4,520 8, ,420 16, ,203 5,618 78,795 % Change ,845 4,976 8, ,424 15, ,023 5,220 85,114 % Change ,449 6,262 9, ,361 14, ,226 4,247 85,180 % Change ,034 6,795 8, ,762 10, ,286 3,982 83,597 % Change ,568 6,931 6, ,846 13, ,283 3,020 73,282 % Change ,911 7,095 7, ,656 10, ,795 4,098 71,521 % Change ,077 6,282 6, ,429 9, ,064 4,310 67,235 % Change ,909 4,387 6, ,814 5, ,037 3,742 53,830 Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 6

7 Table 2: Starts by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa ,890 1, Peterborough ** St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 4,058 3, ,335 3,018 3,731 8,599 9, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 7

8 Table 2: Starts by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington n/a Cobourg Collingwood ** Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands ** Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock n/a Total Ontario (10,000+) 9,003 8, ,068 2,564 2,652 3,512 4,412 16,059 16, Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 8

9 Table 2.1: Starts by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie , Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 1,761 1, ,004 3, Kingston Kitchener 1,159 1, ,740 2, London 1,983 2, ,128 3,141 3, Oshawa 1,747 2, ,389 2, Ottawa 2,973 2, ,954 1,793 1,279 1,219 6,506 5, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara ,149 1, Thunder Bay Toronto 14,769 14,120 2,864 2,892 5,280 5,177 10,380 14,891 33,293 37, Windsor , Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 9

10 Table 2.1.1: Starts by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington n/a Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 33,365 33,331 3,994 4,178 10,882 10,826 14,534 19,446 62,775 67, So urce: CM HC (Starts and Completio ns Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 10

11 Table 2.2: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 861 1, ,932 3, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 11

12 Table 2.2: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 2,540 2, ,337 3, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 12

13 Table 2.3: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London ,128 Oshawa Ottawa 1,954 1, ,081 1, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 5,276 5, ,723 13, ,551 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 13

14 Table 2.3: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 10,779 10, ,675 15,551 2,859 3,895 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 14

15 Table 2.4: Starts by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,594 1, ,890 1,576 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 5,388 5,602 3,125 3, ,599 9,578 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 15

16 Table 2.4: Starts by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 11,769 11,181 4,084 4, ,059 16,348 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 16

17 Table 2.5: Starts by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Barrie 938 1, ,169 Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 2,264 2, ,004 3,043 Kingston Kitchener 1,902 2, ,740 2,599 London 1,912 2, ,161 3,141 3,674 Oshawa 1,945 2, ,389 2,995 Ottawa 5,144 4,395 1,156 1, ,506 5,875 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara 984 1, ,149 1,294 Thunder Bay Toronto 21,962 20,724 10,670 14, ,559 33,293 37,080 Windsor ,045 Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 17

18 Table 2.5: Starts by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 45,626 44,816 14,155 18,822 2,994 4,133 62,775 67,781 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 18

19 Table 3: Completions by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa ,455 1, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 3,828 3, ,578 1,177 2,105 2,346 8,261 7, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 19

20 Table 3: Completions by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington n/a Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford ** Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg ** Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 8,970 8,566 1,034 1,098 3,055 2,386 3,144 2,882 16,203 14, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 20

21 Table 3.1: Completions by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie ,068 1, Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 1,821 1, ,309 3, Kingston Kitchener 1,083 1, ,718 3, London 1,963 2, ,189 2, Oshawa 1,841 2, ,598 2, Ottawa 2,500 2, ,614 1,728 1, ,678 5, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara ,167 1, Thunder Bay Toronto 14,082 14,779 2,730 3,135 5,310 5,725 8,235 14,482 30,357 38, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 21

22 Table 3.1: Completions by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington n/a Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 31,838 34,201 3,736 4,535 10,493 11,295 12,798 17,989 58,865 68, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 22

23 Table 3.2: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 1,578 1, ,750 2, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Rental Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 23

24 Table 3.2: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 3,020 2, ,414 2, Rental Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 24

25 Table 3.3: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,535 1, , Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 5,310 5, ,530 13, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Rental Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 25

26 Table 3.3: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 10,269 10, ,951 15,418 2,847 2,513 Rental Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 26

27 Table 3.4: Completions by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,274 1, ,455 1,330 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 5,687 4,857 2,219 2, ,261 7,617 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 27

28 Table 3.4: Completions by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 12,142 11,205 3,293 3, ,203 14,932 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 28

29 Table 3.5: Completions by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Barrie 904 1, ,068 1,238 Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 2,407 2, ,309 3,347 Kingston Kitchener 1,758 2, ,718 3,176 London 1,877 2, ,189 2,787 Oshawa 2,041 2, ,598 2,583 Ottawa 4,279 4,115 1, ,678 5,301 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara 997 1, ,167 1,263 Thunder Bay Toronto 20,625 21,629 9,027 15, ,357 38,121 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie Source: CM HC (Starts and Completions Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 29

30 Table 3.5: Completions by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Georgian Highlands Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Lambton Shores Leamington Midland Mississippi Mills North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores South Huron Stratford Temiskaming Shores Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 42,809 45,917 12,928 19,084 3,128 2,936 58,865 68,020 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 30

31 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges $175,000 - $200,000 - $300,000 - < $175,000 $500,000 + Median Average $199,999 $299,999 $499,999 Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Share Share Share Share Units Units Units Units Units (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Belleville Q , ,866 Q , ,664 Year-to-date , ,725 Year-to-date , ,764 Chatham-Kent Q , ,267 Q , ,022 Year-to-date , ,090 Year-to-date , ,307 Cornwall Q , ,245 Q , ,072 Year-to-date , ,314 Year-to-date , ,983 Kawartha Lakes Q , ,572 Q , ,235 Year-to-date , ,605 Year-to-date , ,480 Norfolk Q , ,730 Q , ,261 Year-to-date , ,771 Year-to-date , ,040 North Bay Q , ,900 Q , ,414 Year-to-date , ,407 Year-to-date , ,580 Sarnia Q , ,783 Q , ,382 Year-to-date , ,357 Year-to-date , ,489 Sault Ste. Marie Q , ,742 Q , ,852 Year-to-date , ,873 Year-to-date , ,547 Barrie CMA Q , ,081 Q , ,975 Year-to-date , ,505 Year-to-date , ,948 Source: CM HC (M arket Absorption Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 31

32 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges $175,000 - $200,000 - $300,000 - < $175,000 $500,000 + Median Average $199,999 $299,999 $499,999 Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Share Share Share Share Units Units Units Units Units (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Brantford CMA Q , ,295 Q , ,976 Year-to-date , ,900 Year-to-date , ,810 Greater Sudbury CMA Q , ,927 Q , ,996 Year-to-date , ,314 Year-to-date , ,695 Guelph CMA Q , ,784 Q , ,780 Year-to-date , ,882 Year-to-date , ,330 Hamilton CMA Q , ,810 Q , ,395 Year-to-date , , , ,357 Year-to-date , , ,305 Kingston CMA Q , ,524 Q , ,286 Year-to-date , ,145 Year-to-date , ,964 Kitchener CMA Q , ,630 Q , ,599 Year-to-date , , ,819 Year-to-date , , , ,149 London CMA Q , ,592 Q , ,129 Year-to-date , , , ,342 Year-to-date , , , ,548 Oshawa CMA Q , ,511 Q , ,965 Year-to-date , , ,146 Year-to-date , , ,685 Ottawa CMA Q , ,608 Q , ,853 Year-to-date , , , ,762 Year-to-date , , , ,729 Source: CMHC (M arket Absorption Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 32

33 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges $175,000 - $200,000 - $300,000 - < $175,000 $500,000 + Median Average $199,999 $299,999 $499,999 Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Share Share Share Share Units Units Units Units Units (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Peterborough CMA Q , ,538 Q , ,505 Year-to-date , ,152 Year-to-date , ,272 St. Catharines-Niagara CMA Q , ,808 Q , ,945 Year-to-date , ,933 Year-to-date , ,359 Thunder Bay CMA Q , ,253 Q , ,960 Year-to-date , ,933 Year-to-date , ,633 Toronto CMA Q , , , , ,254 Q , , , ,961 Year-to-date , , , , ,325 Year-to-date , , , , , ,230 Windsor CMA Q , ,368 Q , ,624 Year-to-date , ,819 Year-to-date , ,302 Total Urban Centres in Ontario (50,000+) Q , , , , , ,083 Q , , , , , ,398 Year-to-date , , , , , ,785 Year-to-date , , , , , , ,261 Source: CM HC (M arket Absorption Survey) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 33

34 Table 5: MLS Residential Activity for Fourth Quarter Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 Sales-to- New New Listings SA 1 Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA January 10, ,518 26,769 29, , ,955 February 14, ,842 27,224 29, , ,706 March 19, ,474 35,512 29, , ,051 April 18, ,149 33,889 28, , ,917 May 21, ,811 39,435 28, , ,622 June 20, ,554 33,739 28, , ,908 July 17, ,725 28,916 28, , ,670 August 17, ,883 29,184 29, , ,172 September 15, ,087 31,903 29, , ,134 October 15, ,142 27,599 28, , ,228 November 13, ,064 21,737 28, , ,566 December 9, ,681 11,520 29, , ,748 January 11, ,891 28,218 29, , ,795 February 15, ,185 26,130 28, , ,137 March 18, ,053 34,051 28, , ,767 April 21, ,726 35,367 29, , ,206 May 25, ,358 39,334 29, , ,949 June 23, ,443 33,522 29, , ,970 July 20, ,851 29,971 29, , ,475 August 19, ,805 28,756 28, , ,887 September 15, ,280 29,356 28, , ,440 October 17, ,734 28,453 28, , ,467 November 15, ,824 22,306 29, , ,892 December 9, ,229 10,875 27, , ,829 Q4 39, , , Q4 42, , , , , , , , , , , M LS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CM HC, adapted from M LS data supplied by CREA Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 34

35 Table 6: Level of Economic Indicators for Fourth Quarter Interest Rates Consumer Average Exchange Migration Manufacturing Mortage Employment Unemployment Confidence Weekly Rate P & I Total Shipments Rates (%) SA (,000) Rate (%) SA Index Wages (U.S. Per Net ($,000) 1 Yr. 5 Yr. (1997=100) ($) cents) $100,000 Term Term January - March , , ,364, April - June , , ,287, July - September , , ,728, October - December , , ,284, January - March , , ,949, April - June , , ,912, July - September , , ,123, October - December , Table 6.1: Growth (1) of Economic Indicators for Fourth Quarter Interest Rates Migration Consumer Average Mortage Employment Unemployment Manufacturing Exchange P & I Total Confidence Weekly Rates SA Rate SA Shipments Rate Per Net Index Wages 1 Yr. 5 Yr. $100,000 Term Term January - March April - June July - September October - December January - March April - June July - September October - December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted (1) Growth year over year expressed in percentage Source: CM HC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM ), CREA (M LS ), Statistics Canada (CANSIM ) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 35

36 Methodology Starts & Completions Survey Methodology The Starts and Completions Survey is conducted by way of site visits which are used to confirm that new units have reached set stages in the construction process. Since most municipalities in the country issue building permits, these are used as an indication of where construction is likely to take place. In areas where there are no permits, reliance has to be placed either on local sources or searching procedures. The Starts and Completions Survey is carried out monthly in urban areas with population in excess of 50,000, as defined by the 2001 Census. In urban areas with populations of 10,000 to 49,999, all Starts are enumerated in the last month of the quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). In these centres with quarterly enumeration, Completion activity is modelled based on historical patterns. Monthly Starts and Completions activity in these quarterly locations are statistically estimated at a provincial level for single and multi categories. Centres with populations below 10,000 are enumerated on a sample basis, also in the last month of each quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). The Starts and Completions Survey enumerates dwelling units in new structures only, designed for non-transient and year-round occupancy. Mobile homes are included in the surveys. A mobile home is a type of manufactured house that is completely assembled in a factory and then moved to a foundation before it is occupied. Trailers or any other movable dwelling (the larger often referred to as a mobile home) with no permanent foundation are excluded from the survey. Conversions and/or alterations within an existing structure are excluded from the surveys as are seasonal dwellings, such as: summer cottages, hunting and ski cabins, trailers and boat houses; and hostel accommodations, such as: hospitals, nursing homes, penal institutions, convents, monasteries, military and industrial camps, and collective types of accommodation such as: hotels, clubs, and lodging homes. Market Absorption Survey Methodology The Market Absorption Survey is carried out in conjunction with the Starts and Completions Survey in urban areas with populations in excess of 50,000. When a structure is recorded as completed, an update is also made as units are sold or rented. The dwellings are then enumerated each month until such time as full absorption occurs. STARTS AND COMPLETIONS SURVEY AND MARKET ABSORPTION SURVEY DEFINITIONS A dwelling unit, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as a structurally separate set of self-contained living premises with a private entrance from outside the building or from a common hall, lobby, or stairway inside the building. Such an entrance must be one that can be used without passing through another separate dwelling unit. A start, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. The number of units under construction as at the end of the period shown, takes into account certain adjustments which are necessary for various reasons. For example, after a start on a dwelling has commenced construction may cease, or a structure, when completed, may contain more or fewer dwelling units than were reported at start. A completion, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. The term absorbed means that a housing unit is no longer on the market (i.e. has been sold or rented). This usually happens when a binding contract is secured by a non-refundable deposit and has been signed by a qualified purchaser. The purpose of the Market Absorption Survey is to measure the rate at which units are sold or rented after they are completed, as well as collect prices. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 36

37 DWELLING TYPES: A Single-Detached dwelling (also referred to as Single ) is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Includes link homes, where two units may share a common basement wall but are separated above grade. Also includes cluster-single developments. A Semi-Detached (Double) dwelling (also referred to as Semi ) is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. A Row (Townhouse) dwelling is a one family dwelling unit in a row of three or more attached dwellings separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. The term Apartment and other includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly known as stacked townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes. Intended market: The intended market is the tenure in which the unit is being marketed. This includes the following categories: Freehold: A residence where the owner owns the dwelling and lot outright. Condominium (including Strata-Titled): An individual dwelling which is privately owned, but where the building and/or the land are collectively owned by all dwelling unit owners. A condominium is a form of ownership rather than a type of house. Rental: Dwelling constructed for rental purposes regardless of who finances the structure. Geographical terms: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). The census population count of the urban core is at least 10,000 to form a census agglomeration and at least 100,000 to form a census metropolitan area. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree on integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs contain whole municipalities or Census Subdivisions. A Rural area, for the purposes of this publication, is a centre with a population less than 10,000. All data presented in this publication is based on Statistics Canada s 2001 Census area definitions. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 37

38 CMHC Home to Canadians Housing Now - - Date Released: First Quarter 2008 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 60 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is now available for free on CMHC s website. You can now view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at mailto:chic@cmhc.gc.ca; (613) or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 38

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