BC Region. New Home Market. Subscribe Now! Table of Contents. Housing market intelligence you can count on

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1 H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n Housing Now BC Region C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n Date Released: Third Quarter 2011 Table of Contents 1 New Home Market New Home Market Housing starts in urban centres across British Columbia 1 increased slightly in the second quarter of There were 6,274 total housing starts this quarter, an increase of two per cent over the same quarter of last year. Despite the increase, new home construction in urban centres in the first half of 2011 remained relatively unchanged. There were 11,405 urban housing starts in the province, a slight decline compared to the 11,475 homes started during the same time period in Total housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) accounted for close to three- 2 Resale Market 3 Economic Factors 5 Report Tables 24 Methodology 1 Urban centres are classified as centres in British Columbia with a population base of 10,000 people or more. Figure 1 Units 40,000 British Columbia Housing Starts (Urban Centres) Single Detached Semi-Detached Row Apartment 30,000 20,000 10, (ytd) Source: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey 2011 (ytd) Subscribe Now! Access CMHC s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at View, print, download or subscribe to get market information ed to you on the day it is released. CMHC s electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free. Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 quarters of all housing starts in British Columbia. At the same time last year Vancouver CMA housing starts made up sixty per cent of the province s total housing starts. Overall, housing starts are up 17 per cent year over year in the Southwest Mainland region of British Columbia 2, with the Vancouver CMA and Abbotsford CMA recording increases compared to last year s totals. Conversely, the majority of the centres in the rest of the province counted year-over-year declines in housing starts in the second quarter. Lower levels of new home construction in these areas of the province can be attributed to weaker housing demand, which has resulted in builders bringing on less new supply. In terms of percentages, housing starts were the lowest in centres located in the interior of British Columbia (Salmon Arm, Penticton and Cranbrook). The declines were smaller in urban centres in the northern parts of the province (Prince George). future developments. With the pick-up in multiple family home starts in the Vancouver CMA, the total number of homes under construction at the end of June 2011 in British Columbia was up twelve per cent from last year s totals. In particular, construction of apartment buildings was up by 28 per cent in the province. Consequently, ground oriented construction (single detached, semi-detached and row) was down from last year s level by six per cent. Rural housing starts 3 trended lower. For the second quarter of 2011 there were an estimated 544 rural home starts in British Columbia, down from the 914 home starts recorded last year. As a result, total rural housing starts for the province in the first half of 2011 were 824 units, a 41 per cent decline from the first half of Resale Market Residential home sales in British Columbia were on par with last year s sales figures with 42,095 transactions, less than one per cent below the first half of For the second quarter, there were 22,948 MLS 4 resales in British Columbia, a five per cent decline from the second quarter of New listings (the number of homes put on the market for sale) increased by ten per cent over first quarter totals, to reach 48,987 homes. Historically in British Columbia, the second quarter is usually when new listings reach the highest for the year. New listings in the second quarter of 2011 were the third highest on record since 1980, surpassed only by the second quarters of 2008 and With higher listings and a slight downward movement in sales, the seasonally adjusted sales to new In the Vancouver CMA, developers have concentrated their efforts on higher density multiple family homes (semi-detached, row and apartment). Multiple family home starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 50 per cent compared to last year s totals, with the Cities of Vancouver, Surrey and Richmond surpassing one thousand units during the first half of this year. Developers starting construction on larger scale multiple family homes that were approved during the latter half of 2010 will bring new supply to the market when completed. Further, improving pre-sales in various projects and neighbourhoods in the CMA have encouraged developers to look at Figure 2 MLS Sales to New Listings Ratio - British Columbia Ratio 100% Seller s 80% 60% Balanced 40% Buyer s 20% 0% Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) 2 Southwest-Mainland of British Columbia includes the following centres; Vancouver CMA, Abbotsford CMA, Chilliwack CA and Squamish CA. 3 Rural areas are centres with a population base of less than 10,000 people. 4 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) 2

3 listings ratio has moved the resale market closer to buyer s market conditions. The sales to new listings ratio moved downward to 47 per cent in the second quarter from 52 per cent in the first quarter of Overall, the resale market in British Columbia is well supplied, with buyer s having both choice and time to make their home purchasing decision. Figure 3 10% 8% 6% British Columbia Labour Markets With the sales to new listings ratio moving towards buyer s market conditions, average prices in the province remained stable. The seasonally adjusted average price for the second quarter was $579,899, a minimal increase from the first quarter. In year over-year comparison, the average price for the province increased 16 per cent increase based Unemployment Rate Employment ( 000) 2,375 2,250 2,125 on strong upward price movement in the first quarter of this year. At the regional level, only the Greater Vancouver and Powell River real estate boards had higher MLS sales in the first half of 2011 than in the first half of In terms of price growth, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley saw double digit percentage gains in year-over-year comparisons. Continuing from the first quarter of 2011, strong demand for higher priced single detached properties in specific neighbourhoods has been the major factor underlying higher existing home prices in both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Average prices for the rest of the real estate boards have been flat or declining during the same time period. 4% 2% Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey Figure 4 Posted 1 and 5 Year Mortgage Rates Per Cent 8% 6% 4% 2% Year Fixed 1-Year Fixed Source: Bank of Canada 2,000 1,875 Economic Factors Economic indicators were mixed during the second quarter of While indicators, such as employment and building permits grew, total net migration was down. Mortgage rates remained favourable for buyers. Employment levels increased during the second quarter of Full-time employment grew during the second quarter over first quarter figures, while part-time employment declined slightly during the same time period. With job growth outpacing growth in the labour force, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate moved lower to 7.6 per cent in June, from 8.4 per cent in March. Migration figures were down in the first quarter in Interprovincial migration, the movement of people between provinces, was in negative territory for the first time since the second quarter of More people moved to Alberta and Ontario 3

4 than moved into British Columbia from these provinces. International migration, which accounts for a larger share of people coming to British Columbia, remained positive during the first quarter of this year, but was not as strong as in past quarters. First quarter net international migration for the province was estimated at 7,049 people. Residential building permit activity was up, both in value and the number of units for the first five months of this year over last year s time frame. The seasonally adjusted value of residential permits was up six per cent, while the actual number of units was up by eleven per cent. The increase in residential building permits signals that housing starts should remain stable for the rest of the year. Longer term fixed rate mortgage rates remain at historical lows. At the end of the second quarter of 2011, the five year posted mortgage rate was 5.39 per cent, just slightly above the 5.34 per cent rate at the end of the first quarter. Bond yields, which influence longer term mortgage rates, moved slightly lower during the second quarter. However, the spread between longer term mortgage rates and bond yields held firm, keeping rates at first quarter levels. Despite upward inflationary pressures during the second quarter, the Bank of Canada held steady on the target for the overnight rate, which affects short term and variable mortgage rates. Although some fluctuations did occur, one year fixed posted mortgage rates ended both the first and second quarters at 3.5 per cent. The target for the overnight rate set by the Bank of Canada has been unchanged since the third quarter of 2010, at one per cent. 4

5 HOUSING NOW REPORT TABLES Available in ALL reports: 1 Housing Activity Summary of CMA 2 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 2.1 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 3 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 3.1 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 4 Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range 5 MLS Residential Activity 6 Economic Indicators Available in SELECTED Reports: 1.1 Housing Activity Summary by 1.2 History of Housing Activity (once a year) 2.2 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.3 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 2.4 Starts by and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.5 Starts by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.2 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.3 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.4 Completions by and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.5 Completions by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 4.1 Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-Detached Units SYMBOLS n/a Not applicable * Totals may not add up due to co-operatives and unknown market types ** Percent change > 200% - Nil -- Amount too small to be expressed SA Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation 5

6 Table 1: Housing Activity Summary of British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Urban Centres Single Freehold Semi Ownership Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q , ,084 1, ,818 Q , , ,052 % Change ** Year-to-date , ,838 3, , ,229 Year-to-date , ,403 2, ,401 12,876 % Change UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q , , ,082 11, ,016 3,327 27,450 Q , , ,575 8, ,454 4,094 25,644 % Change COMPLETIONS Q , , ,528 Q , ,103 2, ,152 % Change ** Year-to-date , ,465 2, , ,020 Year-to-date , ,696 6, ,078 14,521 % Change COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q , , n/a 4,776 Q , n/a 4,208 % Change ** n/a 13.5 ABSORBED Q , , n/a 5,177 Q , ,028 2, n/a 5,960 % Change n/a Year-to-date , ,366 3, n/a 9,348 Year-to-date , ,673 5, n/a 11,539 % Change n/a Rental Apt. & Other Rural Centres Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 6

7 Table 1.2: History of Housing Starts of British Columbia Region Urban Centres Single Freehold Semi Ownership Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row , , ,277 7, ,397 2,879 26,479 % Change , ,311 3, ,244 16,077 % Change , ,383 15, ,464 34,321 % Change , ,681 16, ,833 39,195 % Change , ,211 13, ,872 36,443 % Change , ,993 12, ,039 3,548 34,667 % Change , ,163 10, ,217 2,051 32,925 % Change , ,433 7, ,227 1,454 26,174 % Change , ,481 4, ,837 1,311 21,625 % Change , ,234 3, ,405 1,545 17,234 Rental Apt. & Other Rural Centres Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 7

8 Table 2: Starts by and by Dwelling Type British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,034 1, ,599 1,686 4,664 3, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert n/a Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace ** Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 2,022 2, , ,935 2,224 6,274 6, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 8

9 Table 2.1: Starts by and by Dwelling Type British Columbia Region January - June Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,659 2, , ,060 3,346 8,472 6, Victoria , Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert n/a Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace ** Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 3,191 4, ,762 1,309 5,965 4,552 11,405 11, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 9

10 Table 2.2: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver ,946 1, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 1, ,101 1, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 10

11 Table 2.3: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market British Columbia Region January - June 2011 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1, ,042 2,871 1, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 1,701 1, ,503 3,682 1, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 11

12 Table 2.4: Starts by and by Intended Market British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,620 1,581 2,329 1, ,664 3,683 Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 2,720 3,097 2,608 2, ,274 6,138 Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 12

13 Table 2.5: Starts by and by Intended Market British Columbia Region January - June 2011 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 2,491 3,069 4,833 3,273 1, ,472 6,881 Victoria ,152 Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 4,167 5,751 5,541 4,500 1,697 1,224 11,405 11,475 Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 13

14 Table 3: Completions by and by Dwelling Type British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver ,202 2,830 4,009 4, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat n/a Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert n/a Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace ** Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 1,891 1, ,958 3,268 6,074 6, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 14

15 Table 3.1: Completions by and by Dwelling Type British Columbia Region January - June Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,797 1, ,123 1,137 3,275 6,387 6,353 9, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert n/a Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace ** Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 3,672 3, ,469 1,473 4,387 7,593 10,048 13, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 15

16 Table 3.2: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver ,866 2, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) ,249 3, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 16

17 Table 3.3: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market British Columbia Region January - June 2011 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,120 1, ,726 6, Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 1,369 1, ,356 7,084 1, Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 17

18 Table 3.4: Completions by and by Intended Market British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 1,232 1,162 2,407 3, ,009 4,592 Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 2,249 2,302 2,956 3, ,074 6,624 Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 18

19 Table 3.5: Completions by and by Intended Market British Columbia Region January - June 2011 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Abbotsford Kelowna Vancouver 2,227 2,114 3,496 6, ,353 9,388 Victoria Centres 50,000-99,999 Chilliwack Kamloops Nanaimo Prince George Vernon Centres 10,000-49,999 Campbell River Courtenay Cranbrook Dawson Creek Duncan Fort St. John Kitimat Parksville-Qualicum Beach Penticton Port Alberni Powell River Prince Rupert Quesnel Salmon Arm DM Squamish Summerland DM Terrace Williams Lake Total British Columbia (10,000+) 4,242 4,246 4,424 8,465 1, ,048 13,443 Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 19

20 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Price Ranges < $300,000 Units Share (%) $300,000 - $399,999 Share Units (%) $400,000 - $499,999 Share Units (%) $500,000 - $649,999 Share Units (%) $650,000 + Chilliwack Q , ,952 Q , ,683 Year-to-date , ,896 Year-to-date , ,531 Kamloops Q , ,926 Q , ,483 Year-to-date , ,163 Year-to-date , ,337 Nanaimo Q , ,057 Q , ,208 Year-to-date , ,324 Year-to-date , ,835 Prince George Q , ,094 Q , ,224 Year-to-date , ,317 Year-to-date , ,711 Vernon Q , ,971 Q , ,594 Year-to-date , ,526 Year-to-date , ,378 Abbotsford CMA Q , ,892 Q , ,171 Year-to-date , ,464 Year-to-date , ,613 Kelowna CMA Q , ,127 Q , ,856 Year-to-date , ,756 Year-to-date , ,480 Vancouver CMA Q ,907 1,074,868 Q , ,641 Year-to-date , , ,331 1,059,372 Year-to-date , , ,210 Victoria CMA Q , ,895 Q , ,066 Year-to-date , ,531 Year-to-date , ,490 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 20

21 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Price Ranges $300,000 - $400,000 - $500,000 - < $300,000 $650,000 + Median Average $399,999 $499,999 $649,999 Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Share Share Share Share Units Units Units Units Units (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Total Urban Centres in British Columbia (50,000+) Q , , ,168 Q , , ,305 Year-to-date , , , ,541 Year-to-date , , , , ,210 Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 21

22 Table 5: MLS Residential Activity for British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2010 January 4, ,007 13,541 15, , ,959 February 5, ,877 14,043 14, , ,511 March 7, ,719 18,699 14, , ,381 April 8, ,752 20,117 16, , ,617 May 7, ,263 18,266 14, , ,237 June 7, ,722 16,080 13, , ,233 July 5, ,931 12,629 11, , ,647 August 5, ,207 11,391 12, , ,274 September 5, ,448 12,347 12, , ,957 October 5, ,890 10,338 12, , ,108 November 5, ,417 8,514 12, , ,614 December 4, ,413 5,139 12, , , January 4, ,130 12,442 13, , ,191 February 6, ,345 14,796 14, , ,379 March 8, ,171 17,166 13, , ,793 April 7, ,332 16,151 13, , ,083 May 7, ,072 16,697 12, , ,674 June 7, ,097 16,139 13, , ,742 July August September October November December Q , ,737 54,463 43, , ,188 Q , ,501 48,987 39, , ,899 36, , , , , , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 22

23 Table 6: Level of Economic Indicators for British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 Interest Rates Consumer Average Manufacturing Exchange Mortage Rates Employment Unemployment Migration Confidence Weekly Shipments Rate (U.S. P & I Per (%) SA (,000) Rate (%) SA Total Net Index Wages ($,000) cents) $100,000 1 Yr. 5 Yr. (2002=100) ($) Term Term 2010 January - March , , ,202, April - June , , ,216, July - September , , ,174, October - December , ,947, January - March , , ,925, April - June , July - September October - December Table 6.1: Growth (1) of Economic Indicators for British Columbia Region Second Quarter 2011 P & I Per $100,000 Interest Rates Mortage Rates Employment SA Unemployment Rate SA Migration Total Net Consumer Confidence Index Average Weekly Wages Manufacturing Shipments Exchange Rate 1 Yr. Term 5 Yr. Term 2010 January - March April - June July - September October - December January - March April - June July - September October - December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted (1) Growth year over year expressed in percentage Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Conference Board of Canada 23

24 Methodology Starts & Completions Survey Methodology The Starts and Completions Survey is conducted by way of site visits which are used to confirm that new units have reached set stages in the construction process. Since most municipalities in the country issue building permits, these are used as an indication of where construction is likely to take place. In areas where there are no permits, reliance has to be placed either on local sources or searching procedures. The Starts and Completions Survey is carried out monthly in urban areas with population in excess of 50,000, as defined by the 2006 Census. In urban areas with populations of 10,000 to 49,999, all Starts are enumerated in the last month of the quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). In these centres with quarterly enumeration, Completion activity is modelled based on historical patterns. Monthly Starts and Completions activity in these quarterly locations are statistically estimated at a provincial level for single and multi categories. Centres with populations below 10,000 are enumerated on a sample basis, also in the last month of each quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). The Starts and Completions Survey enumerates dwelling units in new structures only, designed for non-transient and year-round occupancy. Mobile homes are included in the surveys. A mobile home is a type of manufactured house that is completely assembled in a factory and then moved to a foundation before it is occupied. Trailers or any other movable dwelling (the larger often referred to as a mobile home) with no permanent foundation are excluded from the survey. Conversions and/or alterations within an existing structure are excluded from the surveys as are seasonal dwellings, such as: summer cottages, hunting and ski cabins, trailers and boat houses; and hostel accommodations, such as: hospitals, nursing homes, penal institutions, convents, monasteries, military and industrial camps, and collective types of accommodation such as: hotels, clubs, and lodging homes. Market Absorption Survey Methodology The Market Absorption Survey is carried out in conjunction with the Starts and Completions Survey in urban areas with populations in excess of 50,000. When a structure is recorded as completed, an update is also made as units are sold or rented. The dwellings are then enumerated each month until such time as full absorption occurs. STARTS AND COMPLETIONS SURVEY AND MARKET ABSORPTION SURVEY DEFINITIONS A dwelling unit, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as a structurally separate set of self-contained living premises with a private entrance from outside the building or from a common hall, lobby, or stairway inside the building. Such an entrance must be one that can be used without passing through another separate dwelling unit. A start, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. The number of units under construction as at the end of the period shown, takes into account certain adjustments which are necessary for various reasons. For example, after a start on a dwelling has commenced construction may cease, or a structure, when completed, may contain more or fewer dwelling units than were reported at start. A completion, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. The term absorbed means that a housing unit is no longer on the market (i.e. has been sold or rented). This usually happens when a binding contract is secured by a non-refundable deposit and has been signed by a qualified purchaser. The purpose of the Market Absorption Survey is to measure the rate at which units are sold or rented after they are completed, as well as collect prices. 24

25 DWELLING TYPES: A Single-Detached dwelling (also referred to as Single ) is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Includes link homes, where two units may share a common basement wall but are separated above grade. Also includes cluster-single developments. A Semi-Detached (Double) dwelling (also referred to as Semi ) is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. A Row (Townhouse) dwelling is a one family dwelling unit in a row of three or more attached dwellings separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. The term Apartment and other includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly known as stacked townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes. Intended market: The intended market is the tenure in which the unit is being marketed. This includes the following categories: Freehold: A residence where the owner owns the dwelling and lot outright. Condominium (including Strata-Titled): An individual dwelling which is privately owned, but where the building and/or the land are collectively owned by all dwelling unit owners. A condominium is a form of ownership rather than a type of house. Rental: Dwelling constructed for rental purposes regardless of who finances the structure. Geographical terms: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). The census population count of the urban core is at least 10,000 to form a census agglomeration and at least 100,000 to form a census metropolitan area. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree on integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs contain whole municipalities or Census Subdivisions. A Rural area, for the purposes of this publication, is a centre with a population less than 10,000. All data presented in this publication is based on Statistics Canada s 2006 Census area definitions. 25

26 CMHC Home to Canadians (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 65 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at mailto:chic@cmhc.gc.ca; or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. 26

27 Housing market intelligence you can count on FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE n Canadian Housing Statistics n Housing Information Monthly n Housing Market Outlook, Canada n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional n Monthly Housing Statistics n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data n Renovation and Home Purchase Report n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Now semi-annual! n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres n Rental Market Statistics Now semi-annual! n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors Housing Reports CMHC s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information. Forecasts and Analysis Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends. Statistics and Data Information on current housing market activities starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more. Get the market intelligence you need today! Click to view, download or subscribe. CMHC s 2011 Mortgage Consumer Survey The 2011 survey results offer a unique perspective on attitudes and behaviours of recent mortgage consumers. Use these findings to identify opportunities and build stronger relationships with your clients. Visit for results and find out how

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