HOUSING NOW Ontario Region

Transcription

1 Housing Market Information HOUSING NOW Date Released: First Quarter 2011 Resale Market Existing home sales bounce back in Q4 Ontario existing home sales bounced back in the fourth quarter of. Sales on a seasonally adjusted basis grew by almost 14 per cent during the quarter. Improved affordability was the main factor encouraging more buying after home prices and mortgage rates drifted to lower levels compared to early. This strength helped support annual sales last year, which registered volumes that were just shy of levels but still the fifth best on record. Much of the strength in sales, however, was driven by early year activity. A recovering provincial economy laid the foundation for stronger housing demand. Prospective buyers also wanted to get a head start on the buying season, hoping to beat imminent mortgage rule changes, interest rate increases and higher costs associated with the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). The bringing forward of demand helped moderate activity later in the year. Table of Contents 1 Resale Market 2 New Home Market 3 Ontario Apartment Sales Growing in Share 4 Tables Figure 1 Ontario Sales Rebound in Q4 MLS 1 Sales 240, , , , , , , ,000 SUBSCRIBE NOW! Access CMHC s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at View, print, download or subscribe to get market information ed to you on the day it is released. CMHC s electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free. Source: CREA 1 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 Listings remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter as home prices remained below fi rst-quarter levels. With home sales growing faster than listings in the final quarter, the gap between sales and listings grew for the fi rst time since the economic and housing recovery began indicating slightly less choice for prospective home buyers. Tighter resale market conditions encouraged a partial recovery in home prices during the fourth quarter. Despite some moderation in home prices since the fi rst quarter of, prices for the year were still up a strong 7.5 per cent on the strength of fi rst-half activity. Based on the balance between demand and supply as per the salesto-new-listings ratio, Thunder Bay, Toronto and Kitchener were the tightest markets across the province in the fourth quarter. Toronto and Kitchener were likely benefi tting from improving population and migration growth in southern Ontario, while Thunder Bay continued to experience scarce listings. Meanwhile, Windsor, Kingston and St. Catharines-Niagara were the coolest markets in the fourth quarter as they are urban centres that depend more on US business prospects. While confi dence was restored in Ontario s goodsproducing industry in, an uncertain profi le for the US recovery, a high Canadian dollar and belowaverage rate of job growth in these centres during prompted more cautionary spending. New Home Market Ontario housing construction grows in Ontario residential construction activity moderated in the fourth quarter. Ontario all-area home starts declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate estimate of 58,300 units, down by four per cent from the previous quarter. For the year, home starts across the province of Ontario grew to 60,433 units in, up nearly 20 per cent from. While single-detached construction activity contributed most to the strength in home starts last year, multi-family home construction, which includes semi-detached, townhome and apartment units, posted increases in activity as well. Communities that are home to lower density construction fared relatively better, with Hamilton, Barrie and Oshawa growing most. With the exception of London and Kingston, all other urban centres posted increases in. An improving provincial economy, buoyant resale markets and the threat of higher home costs encouraged strong home buying activity since the second quarter of. However, new home construction activity has slowed in the second half of the result of less pent-up demand, fewer fi rst time buyers and more choice in resale markets in relation to early. Figure 2 Annual Starts 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: CMHC Ontario Starts Grow in Despite a third consecutive quarterly decline in single-detached home construction in the fourth quarter, Ontario detached home starts grew by over 25 per cent in. This was on the strength of late- /early- activity. Singledetached home construction grew the fastest in traditional low-density communities. Record low interest rates, tighter resale markets and low unsold inventories prompted more production among builders early in the year. Furthermore, the threat of new taxes on new housing also prompted home buyers and builders to get a step ahead of that tax to ensure a closing before July 1st, and this likely infl ated construction activity in earlier quarters. While soft demand will keep detached starts low for now, stronger demand, particularly among repeat buyers, and lower unsold inventories will translate into more production by mid Although modest declines were registered during the fourth quarter, multi-family home construction posted relatively modest gains during

3 . Despite significant strength in single-detached home construction, multi-family home construction captured over half of all starts activity in. Row housing, apartment ownership and rental construction led the gains. Activity was particularly strong in Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton and Kitchener. Rising housing costs, fewer lots available for low-rise construction and stronger investment activity has boosted demand for higher density housing. While there are still some projects that sold yesterday that are in the pipeline awaiting the start of construction, unsold inventories have grown and will likely keep construction of higher density units in check. Ontario new home prices have been trending higher since the fourth quarter of due to both demand and supply factors. On the demand side, stronger housing starts owing to a stronger economy combined with recovering resale home prices enabled builders to raise prices. This was in stark contrast to conditions in, which saw builders cutting prices to clear inventories in response to slowing economic conditions. On the supply side, higher construction costs in recent quarters have also put upward pressure on new home prices. Ontario Apartment Sales Growing in Share Demand for resale and new apartment units grew in recent years. For example, Ontario apartment starts have tripled as a share of total starts since the mid-1990s. A number of demand and supply factors explain this growing trend. First, growth in non-family households has driven population and household growth over the past decade. Non-family households generally comprise one person households, which can include younger individuals Figure 3 but also ageing persons who need less space. Second, females 45% have comprised a growing share 40% of the labour market over the past decade and by extension 35% have gained new purchasing 30% power. Round-the-clock security, 25% modern finishings and other condo apartment amenities have 20% proven to be popular among 15% female professionals. Third, less 10% land available for low-density residential development has 5% meant more builders have opted 0% for higher density construction. Recent policy changes favouring intensification have contributed Source: CMHC Apa artment Share of Total Starts to this new building trend. Finally, interest rates at generational lows, lower vacancies and volatility in financial markets in recent years have encouraged investors to search for alternative income producing assets. Residential real estate has proven to deliver comparable returns with a fraction of the risk associated with other investment vehicles. 3

4 HOUSING NOW REPORT TABLES Available in ALL reports: 1 Housing Activity Summary of Region 2 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Current Quarter 2.1 Starts by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 3 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Current Quarter 3.1 Completions by and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 4 Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range 5 MLS Residential Activity 6 Economic Indicators 6.1 Growth of Economic Indicators Available in SELECTED Reports: 1.2 History of Housing Activity (once a year) 2.2 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Quarter 2.3 Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 2.4 Starts by and by Intended Market Current Quarter 2.5 Starts by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.2 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Quarter 3.3 Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.4 Completions by and by Intended Market Current Quarter 3.5 Completions by and by Intended Market Year-to-Date SYMBOLS n/a Not applicable * Totals may not add up due to co-operatives and unknown market types ** Percent change > 200% - Nil -- Amount too small to be expressed SA Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation 4

5 Table 1: Housing Activity Summary of Fourth Quarter Urban Centres Ownership Freehold Condominium Single Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q4 6, , , ,001 15,498 Q4 7, , , , ,782 % Change Year-to-date 25,350 2,765 7, ,816 14, ,575 3,329 60,433 Year-to-date 20,186 2,835 5, ,596 12, ,580 2,431 50,370 % Change UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q4 13,749 1,740 6, ,366 35, ,303 2,172 67,873 Q4 13,343 1,936 5, ,246 38, ,105 1,688 68,923 % Change COMPLETIONS Q4 6, , , ,068 1,052 15,589 Q4 5, , , ,148 % Change Year-to-date 24,890 2,911 5, ,802 17, ,493 2,844 61,867 Year-to-date 22,021 3,241 6, ,724 14, ,063 2,535 54,900 % Change COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q , ,427 n/a 3,792 Q4 1, n/a 3,072 % Change n/a 23.4 ABSORBED Q4 5, , , n/a 13,150 Q4 5, , , n/a 12,164 % Change n/a 8.1 Year-to-date 22,773 2,728 5, ,618 16, ,757 n/a 53,014 Year-to-date 20,574 3,171 5, ,621 14, ,751 n/a 48,720 % Change n/a 8.8 Rental Apt. & Other Rural Centres Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 5

6 Table 1.2: History of Housing Starts of Urban Centres Ownership Freehold Condominium Single Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row 25,350 2,765 7, ,816 14, ,575 3,329 60,433 % Change ,186 2,835 5, ,596 12, ,580 2,431 50,370 % Change ,109 3,213 7, ,648 25, ,688 3,153 75,076 % Change ,198 3,936 8, ,789 11, ,859 5,348 68,123 % Change ,132 4,034 7, ,123 15, ,895 5,636 73,417 % Change ,475 4,520 8, ,420 16, ,203 5,618 78,795 % Change ,845 4,976 8, ,424 15, ,023 5,220 85,114 % Change ,449 6,262 9, ,361 14, ,226 4,247 85,180 % Change ,034 6,795 8, ,762 10, ,286 3,982 83,597 % Change ,568 6,931 6, ,846 13, ,283 3,020 73,282 Rental Apt. & Other Rural Centres Total* 6

7 Table 2: Starts by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa ,884 2, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 2,515 3, ,158 1,031 3,554 3,044 7,719 7, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

8 Table 2: Starts by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 % Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a n/a Lambton Shores n/a Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a n/a ** North Perth Orillia ** Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores n/a The Nation M n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills n/a Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 6,310 7, ,545 2,401 4,874 4,466 14,497 14,

9 Table 2.1: Starts by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph , Hamilton 1, ,562 1, Kingston Kitchener 1,255 1, ,815 2, London 1,461 1, ,079 2, Oshawa 1, , Ottawa 2,302 2, ,928 1,909 1,854 1,135 6,446 5, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara , Thunder Bay Toronto 9,936 8,130 1,654 2,032 4,365 2,918 13,240 12,869 29,195 25, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

10 Table 2.1: Starts by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a n/a Brock Tp n/a n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 4 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a n/a Lambton Shores n/a Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a North Perth Orillia ** Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 25,551 20,397 2,813 2,881 10,075 7,063 18,665 17,598 57,104 47,

11 Table 2.2: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 1,152 1, ,327 2, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

12 Table 2.2: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 46 n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M 4 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 2,490 2, ,129 2, ,488 12

13 Table 2.3: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,911 1, , Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 4,337 2, ,930 11,032 1,310 1,808 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

14 Table 2.3: Starts by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T 4 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 46 n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M 4 n/a 4 n/a 11 n/a 0 6 Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 9,907 6, ,088 12,989 3,575 4,580 14

15 Table 2.4: Starts by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,241 1, ,884 2,229 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 4,201 4,614 3,285 2, ,719 7,694 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

16 Table 2.4: Starts by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a 3 12 Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 0 n/a 9 4 Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a 3 1 Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 9,211 10,115 4,482 3, ,535 14,497 14,997 16

17 Table 2.5: Starts by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph , Hamilton 2,731 1, ,562 1,860 Kingston Kitchener 1,624 1, ,815 2,298 London 1, ,079 2,168 Oshawa 1, , Ottawa 4,590 4,659 1, ,446 5,814 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara , Thunder Bay Toronto 14,850 12,477 13,007 11,626 1,338 1,816 29,195 25,949 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

18 Table 2.5: Starts by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 35,650 28,460 17,693 14,637 3,743 4,811 57,104 47,939 18

19 Table 3: Completions by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa ,731 1, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 2,308 1, ,017 3,597 3,517 7,293 7, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

20 Table 3: Completions by and by Dwelling Type Fourth Quarter Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a n/a Brock Tp n/a 8 n/a 0 n/a 20 5 ** Brockville ** Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin n/a Essex T n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 5 n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores n/a Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 6 n/a 0 n/a North Perth ** Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa ** Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford ** Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills ** Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing ** Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 6,318 5, ,420 2,205 5,060 4,808 14,537 13,

21 Table 3.1: Completions by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 1,392 1, , ,178 2, Kingston Kitchener 1,348 1, ,440 2, London 1, , ,707 1, Oshawa 1,366 1, ,560 1, Ottawa 2,749 2, ,061 1,747 1,590 1,180 6,784 5, Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara , Thunder Bay Toronto 9,804 8,852 1,784 2,486 3,344 3,812 16,461 13,206 31,393 28, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

22 Table 3.1: Completions by and by Dwelling Type January - December Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total % Change Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a Brock Tp n/a n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin ** Essex T n/a n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford ** Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a 6 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 25,138 22,254 3,005 3,284 8,803 8,957 22,077 17,870 59,023 52,

23 Table 3.2: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 980 1, ,449 2, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

24 Table 3.2: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp 8 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU 5 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU 6 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 2,385 2, ,992 3,872 1,

25 Table 3.3: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 961 1, Kingston Kitchener London , Oshawa Ottawa 2,028 1, , Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 3,340 3, ,008 12,214 1, Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

26 Table 3.3: Completions by, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - December Row Apt. & Other Freehold and Condominium Rental Freehold and Condominium Rental Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU 12 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 6 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 8,621 8, ,584 14,807 4,493 3,063 26

27 Table 3.4: Completions by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton Kingston Kitchener London Oshawa Ottawa 1,183 1, ,731 1,457 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara Thunder Bay Toronto 3,381 3,234 3,760 3, ,293 7,106 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

28 Table 3.4: Completions by and by Intended Market Fourth Quarter Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a 20 5 Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a 0 n/a 5 6 Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a 14 5 Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a 5 4 Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a 0 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 8,642 7,793 4,777 4,651 1, ,537 13,427 28

29 Table 3.5: Completions by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 100,000+ Barrie Brantford Greater Sudbury Guelph Hamilton 2,073 1, ,178 2,721 Kingston Kitchener 1,742 1, ,440 2,854 London 1, , ,707 1,510 Oshawa 1,484 1, ,560 1,563 Ottawa 5,116 4,690 1, ,784 5,887 Peterborough St. Catharines-Niagara , Thunder Bay Toronto 13,863 13,765 16,073 13,581 1,457 1,010 31,393 28,356 Windsor Centres 50,000-99,999 Belleville Chatham-Kent Cornwall Kawartha Lakes Norfolk North Bay Sarnia Sault Ste. Marie

30 Table 3.5: Completions by and by Intended Market January - December Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Centres 10,000-49,999 Bracebridge Brighton MU n/a 0 n/a Brock Tp n/a 0 n/a Brockville Centre Wellington Cobourg Collingwood Elliot Lake Erin Essex T n/a Gravenhurst Greater Napanee Haldimand County CY Hunstville Ingersoll Kenora Kincardine MU n/a 0 n/a Lambton Shores Leamington Meaford Midland Mississippi Mills North Grenville MU n/a 0 n/a North Perth Orillia Owen Sound Petawawa Port Hope Prince Edward County Saugeen Shores Scugog Tp n/a 0 n/a Stratford Temiskaming Shores The Nation M n/a 6 n/a Tillsonburg Timmins Trent Hills Wasaga Beach West Grey MU West Nipissing Woodstock Total Ontario (10,000+) 33,749 31,352 20,552 17,706 4,722 3,307 59,023 52,365 30

31 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges < $175,000 Units Share (%) $175,000 - $199,999 Share Units (%) $200,000 - $299,999 Share Units (%) $300,000 - $499,999 Share Units (%) $500,000 + Belleville Q , ,144 Q , ,054 Year-to-date , ,103 Year-to-date , ,645 Chatham-Kent Q , ,787 Q , ,132 Year-to-date , ,213 Year-to-date , ,251 Cornwall Q , ,538 Q Year-to-date , ,497 Year-to-date , ,747 Kawartha Lakes Q , ,972 Q , ,764 Year-to-date , ,396 Year-to-date , ,410 Norfolk Q , ,484 Q , ,597 Year-to-date , ,654 Year-to-date , ,178 North Bay Q , ,124 Q Year-to-date , ,470 Year-to-date , ,168 Sarnia Q , ,676 Q , ,024 Year-to-date , ,607 Year-to-date , ,910 Sault Ste. Marie Q , ,750 Q , ,310 Year-to-date , ,978 Year-to-date , ,272 Barrie CMA Q , ,874 Q , ,589 Year-to-date , ,200 Year-to-date , ,237 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 31

32 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges < $175,000 Units Share (%) $175,000 - $199,999 Share Units (%) $200,000 - $299,999 Share Units (%) $300,000 - $499,999 Share Units (%) $500,000 + Brantford CMA Q , ,908 Q , ,131 Year-to-date , ,660 Year-to-date , ,081 Greater Sudbury CMA Q , ,982 Q , ,789 Year-to-date , ,289 Year-to-date , ,755 Guelph CMA Q , ,919 Q , ,606 Year-to-date , ,227 Year-to-date , ,011 Hamilton CMA Q , ,154 Q , ,504 Year-to-date , , , ,563 Year-to-date , , ,600 Kingston CMA Q , ,443 Q , ,725 Year-to-date , ,517 Year-to-date , ,153 Kitchener CMA Q , ,308 Q , ,414 Year-to-date , , ,811 Year-to-date , , ,289 London CMA Q , ,465 Q , ,280 Year-to-date , , ,634 Year-to-date , ,898 Oshawa CMA Q , ,695 Q , ,283 Year-to-date , , ,405 Year-to-date , , ,513 Ottawa CMA Q , ,022 Q , ,896 Year-to-date , , , ,729 Year-to-date , , , ,647 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 32

33 Table 4: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range in Fourth Quarter Price Ranges < $175,000 Units Share (%) $175,000 - $199,999 Share Units (%) $200,000 - $299,999 Share Units (%) $300,000 - $499,999 Share Units (%) $500,000 + Peterborough CMA Q , ,876 Q , ,649 Year-to-date , ,278 Year-to-date , ,765 St. Catharines-Niagara CMA Q , ,263 Q , ,271 Year-to-date , ,640 Year-to-date , ,423 Thunder Bay CMA Q , ,025 Q , ,365 Year-to-date , ,582 Year-to-date , ,513 Toronto CMA Q , , , , ,543 Q , , , ,399 Year-to-date , , , , ,617 Year-to-date , , , , ,123 Windsor CMA Q , ,844 Q , ,112 Year-to-date , ,173 Year-to-date , ,030 Total Urban Centres in Ontario (50,000+) Q , , , , ,528 Q , , , , ,943 Year-to-date , , , , , ,918 Year-to-date , , , , , ,661 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 33

34 Table 5: MLS Residential Activity for Fourth Quarter Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA January 6, ,271 24,894 27, , ,358 February 9, ,275 24,659 26, , ,079 March 14, ,338 31,977 26, , ,195 April 18, ,560 31,971 24, , ,250 May 21, ,112 32,423 24, , ,212 June 23, ,893 31,518 25, , ,868 July 21, ,038 29,181 26, , ,708 August 18, ,262 25,504 27, , ,041 September 18, ,058 28,230 25, , ,411 October 17, ,495 25,301 26, , ,422 November 15, ,626 21,726 28, , ,785 December 11, ,913 12,585 29, , ,480 January 10, ,276 24,266 28, , ,026 February 15, ,481 27,686 30, , ,428 March 21, ,357 40,842 33, , ,296 April 23, ,216 43,585 32, , ,739 May 21, ,032 40,443 31, , ,444 June 19, ,365 34,546 29, , ,748 July 15, ,329 26,806 26, , ,743 August 15, ,361 25,976 27, , ,130 September 14, ,835 29,484 27, , ,871 October 14, ,741 24,830 28, , ,702 November 14, ,383 20,925 27, , ,995 December 9, ,210 10,889 26, , ,821 Q4 44, ,034 59,612 85, , ,600 Q4 38, ,334 56,644 82, , , , , , , , , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 34

35 Table 6: Level of Economic Indicators for Fourth Quarter Interest Rates Consumer Average Manufacturing Exchange Mortage Rates Employment Unemployment Migration Confidence Weekly Shipments Rate (U.S. P & I Per (%) SA (,000) Rate (%) SA Total Net Index Wages ($,000) cents) $100,000 1 Yr. 5 Yr. (2002=100) ($) Term Term January - March , , ,277, April - June , , ,555, July - September , , ,037, October - December , , ,438, January - March , , ,936, April - June , , ,174, July - September , , ,981, October - December , Table 6.1: Growth (1) of Economic Indicators for Fourth Quarter P & I Per $100,000 Interest Rates Mortage Rates Employment SA Unemployment Rate SA Migration Total Net Consumer Confidence Index Average Weekly Wages Manufacturing Shipments Exchange Rate 1 Yr. Term 5 Yr. Term January - March April - June July - September October - December January - March April - June July - September October - December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted (1) Growth year over year expressed in percentage Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Conference Board of Canada 35

36 Methodology Starts & Completions Survey Methodology The Starts and Completions Survey is conducted by way of site visits which are used to confirm that new units have reached set stages in the construction process. Since most municipalities in the country issue building permits, these are used as an indication of where construction is likely to take place. In areas where there are no permits, reliance has to be placed either on local sources or searching procedures. The Starts and Completions Survey is carried out monthly in urban areas with population in excess of 50,000, as defined by the 2006 Census. In urban areas with populations of 10,000 to 49,999, all Starts are enumerated in the last month of the quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). In these centres with quarterly enumeration, Completion activity is modelled based on historical patterns. Monthly Starts and Completions activity in these quarterly locations are statistically estimated at a provincial level for single and multi categories. Centres with populations below 10,000 are enumerated on a sample basis, also in the last month of each quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). The Starts and Completions Survey enumerates dwelling units in new structures only, designed for non-transient and year-round occupancy. Mobile homes are included in the surveys. A mobile home is a type of manufactured house that is completely assembled in a factory and then moved to a foundation before it is occupied. Trailers or any other movable dwelling (the larger often referred to as a mobile home) with no permanent foundation are excluded from the survey. Conversions and/or alterations within an existing structure are excluded from the surveys as are seasonal dwellings, such as: summer cottages, hunting and ski cabins, trailers and boat houses; and hostel accommodations, such as: hospitals, nursing homes, penal institutions, convents, monasteries, military and industrial camps, and collective types of accommodation such as: hotels, clubs, and lodging homes. Market Absorption Survey Methodology The Market Absorption Survey is carried out in conjunction with the Starts and Completions Survey in urban areas with populations in excess of 50,000. When a structure is recorded as completed, an update is also made as units are sold or rented. The dwellings are then enumerated each month until such time as full absorption occurs. STARTS AND COMPLETIONS SURVEY AND MARKET ABSORPTION SURVEY DEFINITIONS A dwelling unit, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as a structurally separate set of self-contained living premises with a private entrance from outside the building or from a common hall, lobby, or stairway inside the building. Such an entrance must be one that can be used without passing through another separate dwelling unit. A start, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. The number of units under construction as at the end of the period shown, takes into account certain adjustments which are necessary for various reasons. For example, after a start on a dwelling has commenced construction may cease, or a structure, when completed, may contain more or fewer dwelling units than were reported at start. A completion, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. The term absorbed means that a housing unit is no longer on the market (i.e. has been sold or rented). This usually happens when a binding contract is secured by a non-refundable deposit and has been signed by a qualified purchaser. The purpose of the Market Absorption Survey is to measure the rate at which units are sold or rented after they are completed, as well as collect prices. 36

37 DWELLING TYPES: A Single-Detached dwelling (also referred to as Single ) is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Includes link homes, where two units may share a common basement wall but are separated above grade. Also includes cluster-single developments. A Semi-Detached (Double) dwelling (also referred to as Semi ) is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. A Row (Townhouse) dwelling is a one family dwelling unit in a row of three or more attached dwellings separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. The term Apartment and other includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly known as stacked townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes. Intended market: The intended market is the tenure in which the unit is being marketed. This includes the following categories: Freehold: A residence where the owner owns the dwelling and lot outright. Condominium (including Strata-Titled): An individual dwelling which is privately owned, but where the building and/or the land are collectively owned by all dwelling unit owners. A condominium is a form of ownership rather than a type of house. Rental: Dwelling constructed for rental purposes regardless of who finances the structure. Geographical terms: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). The census population count of the urban core is at least 10,000 to form a census agglomeration and at least 100,000 to form a census metropolitan area. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree on integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs contain whole municipalities or Census Subdivisions. A Rural area, for the purposes of this publication, is a centre with a population less than 10,000. All data presented in this publication is based on Statistics Canada s 2006 Census area definitions, except the Economic Indicators data (Table 6) which is based on Statistics Canada s 2001 Census area definitions. 37

38 CMHC Home to Canadians (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 60 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at mailto:chic@cmhc.gc.ca; or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. 38

39 Housing market intelligence you can count on FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE n Canadian Housing Statistics n Housing Information Monthly n Housing Market Outlook, Canada n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional n Monthly Housing Statistics n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data n Renovation and Home Purchase Report n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports Now semi-annual! n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres n Rental Market Statistics Now semi-annual! n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors Housing Reports n Seniors Housing Reports - Supplementary Tables, Regional CMHC s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information. Forecasts and Analysis Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends. Statistics and Data Information on current housing market activities starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more. Get the market intelligence you need today! Click to view, download or subscribe. Housing Market Information - Monthly Housing Starts Tool A tool to help you access monthly housing start data quickly and easily. Share this tool or host it on your website. Information at your fingertips!