All eyes are focused on Central Warsaw
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- Geoffrey West
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1 Warsaw Offices, Q All eyes are focused on Central Warsaw 4,99 mln sq m 15.4% 217,800 sq m 141,400 sq m Figure 1. Chosen office buildings completed in Q *Arrows indicate change from the corresponding quarter in the previous year.. Proximo Hines Q22 Echo Warsaw Spire A Ghelamco The volume of buildings completed in H alone surpassed the completion volumes recorded in the previous years. A high take-up level was maintained throughout H and is a comparable result to the figure registered in H1. Table 1. Office market statistics Summary Stock Q completions 4,988,400 sq m 237,000 sq m Due to the substantial supply of new buildings, the vacancy ratio is growing and reached 15.4% at the end of H The absorption of office space in H reached over 154,300 sq m and to date is the highest recorded H1 absorption. Prime headline rents saw a decrease to the level of 23 EUR sq m/month; this level is anticipated to continue throughout the second half of forecasted completions 454,500 sq m Space under construction 532,400 sq m Vacancy rate 15.4% Q take-up 217,800 sq m Source: CBRE / PORF, Q Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE sp. z o.o. 1
2 Chart 1. Warsaw office completions (in sq m) City Centre Non Central City Centre Planned Non Central Planned 500, , , , , F 2018 F 2017 F 2016 F Source: CBRE / PORF, Q2 2016, F forecast Chart 2. Warsaw take-up by sectors (H1 2016, in % sq m) 8% 3% 22% Manufacturing Industrial & Energy Professional Services 14% Computers / Hi-Tech 14% 21% Business services Financial Services 18% Source: CBRE/ PORF, Q Consumer Services & Leisure Other Public Sector / Regulatory Body Chart 3. Vacancy level in Warsaw (%) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Source: CBRE/ PORF, Q Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE sp. z o.o. 2
3 Chart 4. Absorption versus completions in Warsaw (sq m) 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 Completions Absorption H Source: CBRE / PORF, Q2 2016, F forecast Chart 5. Warsaw gross take-up Central Non Central Forecast 900, , , , , , , , , Source: CBRE / PORF, Q2 2016, F forecast 2016F 2017F Table 2. Selected office lease transactions in Warsaw H Q ZONE BUILDING TENANT SIZE (SQ M) TYPE 1 CBD Q22 Allegro 7,600 pre-let 2 SE Canal+ NC+ 7,500 renewal 2 W Skierniewicka Budimex 7,400 pre-let 2 CBD Atrium Centrum UPC 5,300 renewal 1 LS Platan Park I Mettler Toledo 4,500 renewal + expansion 1 W Proximo I Stanley Black & Decker 4,400 pre-let 2 US Mokotow Nova BMW 4,400 renewal 1 W Proximo I Grupa Pracuj 4,300 pre-let 2 SW Jutrzenki Business Park Comp SA 4,200 renewal + expansion 2 CC Bliski Centrum EUROZET / Radio Zet 4,000 renewal 1 SW Astrum Business Park I Prochem 4,000 owner occupation 1 N Gdanski Business Center D Philip Morris Polska 3,500 pre-let 1 CC Norway House Clifford Chance 3,500 renewal Source: CBRE / PORF, Q Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE sp. z o.o. 3
4 Figure 2. Warsaw office zones selected data NORTH (N) 254,200 6, % 17.5 EUR FRINGE OF CC 975, , % 18.5 EUR PRAGA (E) 198,100 37, % 15.0 EUR WILANOW (SE) 241,700 28, % 14.5 EUR CBD 571,800 16, % 23.0 EUR WOLA (W) 367,100 20, % 16.5 EUR OCHOTA (SW) 865, , % 15.5 EUR MOKOTOW (US) 1,327,600 66, % 14.5 EUR PULAWSKA (LS) 186,600 3, % 13.5 EUR ZONE OFFICE STOCK (SQ M) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SQ M) VACANCY RATE PRIME HEADLINE RENT (EUR/SQ M/MONTH) Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE sp. z o.o. 4
5 Figure 3. Map of selected completed and under construction office schemes in Central Warsaw Source: maps.cbre.com NO. BUILDING ADDRESS DEVELOPER COMPLETED Source: CBRE, 2016 OFFICE AREA COMPLETION 1 Warsaw Spire A (Tower) Plac Europejski 1 Ghelamco Q Q22 Jana Pawla II 22 Echo BV Q Atrium 2 Pereca 1 Skanska Property Poland Q Prime Corporate Center Grzybowska 78 Golub Gethouse Q Astoria Przeskok 2 Strabag Q Grzybowska 43 Grzybowska 43 Wisher Enterprise Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION 7 Sienna Towers Sienna Ghelamco Generation Park X Rondo Daszynskiego Skanska Property Poland Wronia 31 Wronia 31 Ghelamco CEDET Krucza 50 Immobel Nowe Koszyki Koszykowa Griffin Group Centrum Marszalkowska Swietokrzyska WSS Spolem Srodmiescie / BBI Ethos Plac Trzech Krzyzy 10/14 ING RE Spark A Wolska 6 Skanska Property Poland The Tides Wioslarska 6 Warszawskie Towarzystwo Wioslarskie / Agmet Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE sp. z o.o. 5
6 CONTACTS CBRE OFFICE FOLLOW US ON. Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
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