The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends

Transcription

1 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends Mike Sanders AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 216 The Li-ion battery value chain xev & ESS battery market Forecasts & conclusions

2 THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Tons Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 3 Li-ion 2 NiMH Tons of cathode active materials Million Units/Year $/Wh Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 195 M Tablets 165 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 2,6, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 2

3 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 12 1 CAGR Li-ion : +25% 8 (Flow battery, NAS, ) MWh 6 4 Li-ion NiMH NiCD 2 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

4 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) MWh (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid MWh Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 4

5 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 216 Pack level 1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (26-216) Billion US $ (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen DC converters, invertors ) not included concentrators Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 5

6 LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS 9 MWh - 23 B$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume 1 9 Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : < 2GWh Portable Electronics 17% Phones 17% M Wh (1) Cell level : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus Auto, e-bus Excl. Electronic devices Auto, E-bus Excl. 17% Electronic devices 35% Portable PC 66% 216: 9 GWh Auto, E-bus 33% Industrial, ESS 5% 1% 6

7 LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 216 WORLDWIDE The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 216 in volume (small cells only) 6,4 B cells 3% 9% 24% The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 216 in value (1) Estimated at B$ 31 in 216 OTHERS 31% 8% 9% 9% 5% 9% 19% for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG (1) LIB battery pack market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 217 8% 7% Zhuoneng 2% Optimum 2% A123 Wanxiang 1% CALB 2% Microvast 2% COSLIGHT 1% BYD 7% YUASA 1% AESC 2% First New Energy 3% 5% 4% 4% BAK 1% 7

8 LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 5 TO 7% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT Production cost LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 4 Ah EV pouch cell NMC 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 216 Overheads 3% Sales & Adm 3% R&D 6% Direct labor 4% Energy, utilities 4% Warranty 3% Depreciation 14% Margin 7% Other materials 11% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4% Cathode cost 22% Separator 7% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% 8

9 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 211 OOO T in 216 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 6/16: +14% CELL MANUFACTURERS PACK MANUFACTURERS ANODE 14 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 6/16: +13% ELECTROLYTE 13 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 19% Revenues: 22,5 B$ Gross margin: <1% Revenues: 31 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR 1 5 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 9

10 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) MWh CAGR 16-25: + 6% Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) M cells/year Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 1

11 X-EV MARKET Why x-ev? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 216 By country By car makers By battery chemistry X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts X-EV battery forecasts MWh for Auto & E-buses GWh CAGR :+ 17% 11 GWh 185 GWh E-buses PHEV & EV in EV PHEV HEV 11

12 HEV WORLDWIDE IN 216 1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, TOYOTA OTHERS Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, JAPON USA EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included HEV sales per year Penetration of HEV 3% 2% 1% % Growth : +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US Gasoline $ / Gallon 12

13 PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE World excl. growth +14% Chinese Growth + 21% P-HEV (units) 3 +16% Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 OTHERS CHINA SAIC BYD OTHERS AUDI PORSCHE HYUNDAI VOLVO DAIMLER BMW HONDA MITSUBISHI VW FORD TOYOTA GM is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives P-HEV (units) CHINA 3% 6% US 24% EUROPE 38% JAPAN 2% Europe USA Japan 13

14 EV SOLD WORLDWIDE World excl. growth +14% Chinese Growth + 68% EV (units) % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 Other GAC DongFeng Nissan Chana JMC CHERY JAC Geely BAIC Zhidou Zotye Kandi BYD BOLLORE PSA Honda MITSUBISHI DAIMLER FIAT GM Ford KIA VW SMART BMW Toyota Renault NISSAN is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives EV (units) CHINA 55% 4% US 16% JAPAN 4% EUROPE 21% Europe USA Japan 14

15 XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA xev buses market in : 132 xev Buses sold in EV Bus 6 PHEV Bus 4 2 Rationales The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 22, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 215, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after

16 XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA xev buses market in : 112 xev Buses sold in 215 ASIASTAR 1% ANKAI 1% FOTON 3% GOLDEN DRAGON 4% OTHERS 33% DONGFENG 5% YUTONG 18% ZHONGTONG 12% BYD 5% KINGLONG 21% 132 xev Buses sold in 216 OTHERS 53% ASIASTAR 1% ANKAI 4% YUTONG 15% FOTON 3% KINGLONG 6% ZHONGTONG 12% BYD 3% DONGFENG 1% GOLDEN DRAGON 2% The new energy bus market in is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV. As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 215, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including King Long have significantly reduced their market share in 216, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their market shares. 16

17 LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 217 USA 2% LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 218 $ 562 M $ 36 M 3-5 GWh 2-3 GWh EU -<1% SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE $ 6 M 1 GWh 219 $ 1 7 M (1) 25 GWh % BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) * 7% SAMSUNG LG Korea 17% SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam Japan 2% Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA Source: AVICENNE 217 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only 17

18 THE LITHIUM ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 3 major limiters on batteries, for the development of electric vehicle 1- SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON CRITERIA 2- TIME TO MARKET The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF 6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 2 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (2 years ago). So, it takes between 1 & 2 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. (1) Active material only 3- BATTERY COST $ / kwh $ / kwh Average Cell price Average Pack price Cell Pack Cell Pack CellPack Pack Cost Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 2 18

19 HEV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured 5 1% 1,2 2,5 7 4,5 4 9% 8% 1 1, Million cars 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 1,1 2,1 World Excl. 3, 3, HEV: 1kWh battery / car 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % Li-ion HEV Million cars,8,6,4,2,35,3,8,65,5,1,8, PHEV: 12 kwh battery / car World Excl. Million cars 1,5 1,5,2,45,24,18 1,25,45,8,8 1, World Excl kwh / EV

20 TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +17% Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR : +12% M Wh M $ volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV E-bus volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV E-bus 2

21 X-EV BATTERY MARKET IN M$ Cell Level Pack Level CAGR : +12% CAGR : +11% M $ 1 5 M $ volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV E-bus volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV E-bus 21

22 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET In volume (MWh) Lead Acid Batteries GWh for > US $ 33,4 Billion (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid GWh % 26% 22% 79% % In volume 8% SLI Telecom UPS Industry, ESS E-bikes medical, marine, others Industrial Batteries Lead acid batteries 58 GWh for US $ 1,4 Billion Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, % % In volume Other Stationary, ESS Motive 22

23 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 216: US $ 69 BILLION EV, E-Bus Portable SLI ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes US $ 23 Billion for other applications 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Lead Acid LIB ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, E-Bikes

24 TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL 1 ) Application details US$ 22,8 Billion in 216 (1) 24% E-Bikes 13% Power Tools 8% ESS 13% Forklift 15% Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 UPS 12% Telecom 14% Other Motive 1% Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering, 24

25 ESS SEGMENTATION Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS) On grid services Regulation Arbitrage Back-up and reserves Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 Reconcile momentary differences caused by fluctuations in generation and/ or loads Frequency regulation Voltage support Load following/ ramping support Power quality Store energy when the price of electricity is low and releases it on the grid when prices are high Provide emergency power when utility power is not available UPS (Uninterruptible power supply) Power continuity Reserves to face lose of one generator Black start Investment deferral Grid independent power supply Off grid services Provide an active reserve of power and energy to (re)start power generator Enable deferral of utility investments by using relatively small amounts of storage Congestion relief Avoid infrastructure investment Provide electricity power supply in an area not connected to the grid e.g. Rural community Based stations powered by Solar energy 25

26 ESS SEGMENTATION Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

27 ESS REQUIREMENTS On structuring parameters: discharge time and average power, segments highlight different patterns Source : AVICENNE Energy,

28 ENERGY STORAGE SOLUTIONS Mapped on discharge time and power, technologies will appear suitable for certain segments only Source: AVICENNE Energy,

29 ESS MARKET & FORECASTS From 36 GWh to 65 GWh in 225 CAGR: +6% ESS (1) excl Telecom & UPS CAGR: +13 to 15% % Li-ion 52% MWH MWH % Li-ion 28% Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, 11, 12) UPS (18) Power continuity, Telecom (17) ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 2) Source: AVICENNE Energy, Opt(1) Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, 11, 12) ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 2) (1) If LIB cost is < 15$/kWh, the market could be much more important 29

30 LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 9 GWh in 216 to 3 GWh CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume M Wh Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 216 Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus Auto, e-bus Excl. Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 (Realistic) 16% 22% 22% 17% 6% Auto, E-bus Excl. 13% Auto, E-bus Excl. 21% 216: 9 GWh Electronic devices 4% 225: 3 GWh Electronic devices 18% Auto, E-bus 3% Industrial, ESS 6% 11% Auto, E-bus 43% Industrial, ESS 7% 11% 3

31 TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Liion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 38 B$ in 225 with high numbers in (216: US$ 3,6 Billion for xev and US$ 4,8 Billion for xe-buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% in 22/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 22. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 1% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial ) will reach 1 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 15 $/kwh MWh RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 325 GWh 21 GWh B$ (Pack level) 3B$ 43B$ 628 GWh 63 B$ 847GWh 94 B$ (CAGR ) : Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 31 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 115 B$ 2, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+%) LIB for xev (+13%) LIB for * (+12%)

32 THANK YOU Mike SANDERS Senior Advisor Avicenne Energy US Mobile:

33 1- E-BIKES LIB: FROM US$ 1,9 BILLION IN 216 TO 6,5 IN CAGR : +15% Market (US $, Million) CAGR: 1% Main drivers Main Limiters ASP 1 : 216: 48 $/Kwh 225: 33 $/kwh LIB Lead Acid ASP : 216: 77 $/kwh 225: 7 $/kwh E-bike in : Banning of gasoline powered motorcycles in china boost e-bikes: Necessary In US, Europe and Japan, Green image, sport, leisure, transportation: Environment & Health LIB penetration in from 6 to 14% In Japan, US and Europe, E-bikes are already equipped by Li-ion In the only parameter to choose a battery is the cost Chinese E-bike ASP: 32 $/kwh: very difficult to penetrate this market LIB 216 by Area US 11% 6% 16% Europe 67% LIB Penetration (% device) 1% 5% % US, EU, Jap Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses LIB 225 by Area US 4% 2% 8% Europe 86% LIB market (M$) CHINA Competitors BMZ (Germany) AXEON 2 (UK) HITECH (Taiwan) Phylion () Battery needs Performances characteristic 1- Cycle life 2-Energy density 3- Low cost Average Capacity:3 Wh Customers Bosch, Panasonic Bion-X TranX-Z LIB needs Most valuable improvements 1- Price decrease 2- Cycle life 3- Fast charge Form factor: from cylindrical to Laminate No standardization Note: 1- Pack level 2- A Johnson Matthey affiliate + > 5 e-bike mfg. 33

34 2- POWER TOOLS LIB: FROM US$ 1,4 BILLION IN 216 TO 2,2 B IN CAGR:+6% Market (US $, Million) CAGR:+4% LIB Main drivers LIB main Limiters ASP 1 212:56 $/Kwh 22: 39 $/Kwh Li-ion NICd ASP: 212: 335 $/kwh 22: 275 $/kwh Higher voltage NiCd substitution NiCd regulation Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year) Higher energy density, less weight LIB average sales price Reliability High rate discharge Fast charge Life time Battery 213 by Area >75% of the power tools are made in But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch Axeon Poland) LIB 22 by Area Power tools will be made in Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg. Competitors Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%) Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch), Customers Bosch B&D TTI Makita Jingding Hilti 8% 6% 4% 2% % LIB Penetration Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses - LIB market (M$) Battery needs Important characteristic: 1- Higher power & capacity 2-Fast recharge 212 ASP NiCd: 35 $/kwh 212 ASP LIB: 55 $/kwh Average Capacity: 6 Wh Note: : 1- Pack level LIB needs Most valuable improvements 1- Price decrease 2- Fast charge 3- High rate discharge Form factor: Cylindrical No standardization 34

35 3- MOTIVE INDUSTRIAL: FORKLIFTS 2 LIB: FROM US$,56 BILLION IN 216 TO 2,4 IN CAGR : 18% Market (US $, Million) CAGR:7% Main drivers Main Limiters Battery 216 by Area Europe largest producer of motive power batteries has higher percentage of electric vs. gas trucks (75%) than in N. America (64%) : High % of Gas/propane trucks (> 8%) 2% 1% LIB Penetration % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses LIB 225 by Area 18% 16% 32% 34% LIB LIB market (M$) ASP 216: 5 $/kwh 225: 3 $/kwh Lead Acid ASP 216:12 $/kwh 225: 1 $/kwh US Europe Where economies are healthy, they reflect strong motive power production Europe & US got high E-forklift ratio compare to Asia LIB higher life time (* 3 to 5) Multiple shift operation where battery change is required (time consuming) Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (1%), East Penn (1%), Hoppecke (1%), Crown (1%) LIB systems: BMZ, Lithium Balance, Battery needs important characteristic 1-high charge/discharge rates and capacity 2-high life time, range, Average Capacity: 22 kwh Low penetration of E-forklift in Asia High LIB capital price (x 5 compare to lead acid) Safety concerns in two of the lift truck types, sitdown rider and high reach, the counterbalance for the lift truck is supplied mainly by a lead acid battery LIB needs Note: : 1- Pack level 2- Including all kind of Material handling equipment Customers For lead acid, After market represent 6% of the market: lot of different customers (industrials) For LIB, OEM Forklift: TOYOTA, Kion, Jungheinrich, NACCO, Crown, Mitsubishi Caterpillar Most valuable improvements 1- Price 2- Convince customers on total cost of ownership Form factor: large format prismatic size standardization 35

36 4- STATIONARY: TELECOM MARKET LIB: FROM US$,4 BILLION IN 216 TO 1,2 IN CAGR : 13% Market (US $, Million) CAGR: +2% Main drivers main Limiters ASP 216: 49 $/kwh 225: 31 $/kwh LIB Lead Acid ASP 216: 18 $/kwh 225: 155 $/kwh LIB developed for new equipment Increased Bandwidth requirements Wireless Market driving growth Strong Network Growth in, India, E. Europe & S. America 2G-> 3G -> 4G need new equipment's LIB: Specially in Hot climate Lead Acid Vs. Li-ion Lead Acid capital cost 5 times cheaper Total cost of ownership could be compare with Lead acid 2% 1% Battery 216 by Area 16% 14% 8% 2% 14% 28% LIB Penetration Europe US India % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Battery 22 by Area 2% 19% 5-5% 16% 19% 21% LIB market (M$) Europe US India Japan Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (1%), and local suppliers in each countries LIB systems: large companies : SAFT, others? Battery needs Most important performances characteristic 1- Hot T C performances 2- Customized for the new Equipment network Average Capacity: 5-1 kwh modules (1 Ah) Note: : 1- Pack level LIB needs Customers Not so many customers; big telecom carriers in each countries Most valuable improvements 1- Capital costs 2- Safety Proof 3- Reliability Customized battery developed for new equipment 36

37 5- STATIONARY: UPS MARKET LIB: FROM US$,27 BILLION IN 216 TO,9 IN CAGR : : 14% Market (US $, Million) CAGR: +3% Main drivers main Limiters % 1% 5% % 14% Battery 216 by Area 8% 2% 14% 28% LIB Penetration Europe US India Japan % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses ASP 216:49 $/kwh 225: 3 $/kwh LIB LIB market (M$) Lead Acid ASP 216: 185 $/kwh 225: 155 $/kwh Battery 22 by Area 2% 19% 5% 19% 16% 21% Europe US India Japan UPS Drivers: New Data Storage Centers Mobile Society LIB drivers: Less volume, less place > Life time LIB is more needed where data are sensitive Li-ion battery could also help to save electricity during peak time Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (1%), and local suppliers in each countries LIB systems: local companies providing > services Battery needs Most important performances characteristic 1- Back-up at high current 2- weight, volume 3- life time Average Capacity: 3-5 kwh modules Note: UPS: Uninterruptible Power Supply APC: American Power Conversion Safety could be an important issue here Customers Few leaders/many products: Emerson/Liebert, Schneider/APC, Eaton Powerware, Gamatronic, Riello LIB needs Most valuable improvements 1- Convince on Safety 2- Capital Cost 3- Reliability Form factor: Cylindrical New development for new equipment 37

38 LEAD ACID BATTERY SUPPLIERS 216 Lead Acid battery Market share : JCI is leading the SLI market (B$ 2,7) JCI 36% OTHERS 29% FIAMM 3% YUASA 9% EXIDE 1% FENGFAN 3% EASTPENN 7% Camel 3% Lead Acid battery Market share : Enersys is leading the Industrial market (B$ 11,7) YUASA 11% JCI 4% EXIDE 11% OTHERS 37% EASTPENN 6% C&D 8% ENERSYS 19% FIAMM 4% Over the past 15 th years, the global lead-acid battery industry has experienced significant consolidation and currently the main international players are EnerSys, Exide Technologies, Johnson Controls, Inc., and GS Yuasa Corporation ( GS Yuasa ). Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

39 THE LEAD ACID BATTERY MARKET BY APPLICATION AND TECHNOLOGY IN 216 Lead acid battery market in 216: 367 GWH 4% 1% 7% 9% Lead acid battery market in 216: 367 GWH 16% 79% SLI Stationary Motive E-bikes Flooded 84% VRLA The rechargeable battery market SEPTEMBER th Edition Lead acid battery market in 216: US $ 33 Billions 1% 22% 3% 4% 61% Lead acid battery market in 216: US $ 33 Billions 25% 75% SLI Stationary Motive E-bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 Flooded VRLA 39

40 LEAD ACID MARKET FORECASTS BY APPLICATION Lead acid battery demand (21-225) MWh CAGR : +4% E-Bikes Stationary (UPS, Telecom, ESS) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, % +5% -5% +5% Motive Rationales SLI: CAGR : +5% thanks to After market (8% of the market) Micro-hybrid growth In development countries Motive (85% Forklift): CAGR : +5% Forklift market increase is small (+2%) But more and more electrical forklift (8% in Europe, 65% in the US and 35% in Asia) In development countries UPS & Telecom: CAGR : +3% Big data Mobile communications Energy Storage systems growth E-bike 1% of the market in Lead acid replaced by Li-ion (15% LIB e-bike sold in 216 to 6% in 225) 4

41 LEAD ACID MARKET FORECASTS BY TECHNOLOGY Lead acid battery demand (21-225) MWh CAGR : +4% % +21% +4% Rationales Motive Battery technology 1% 5% % Stationary Battery technology 1% 5% % E-bikes: almost 1% AGM batteries Motorcycles: almost 1% GEL batteries Flooded AGM Flooded AGM EFB AGM Flooded batteries GEL Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,