Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market

Transcription

1 July 4 th, AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 217 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion Battery market Forecasts

2 July 4 th, THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Tons Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 3 Li-ion 2 NiMH Tons of cathode active materials 7 > Million Units/Year $/Wh Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 165 M Tablets 165 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 2.6 <, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 218 2

3 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 14, 12, CAGR Li-ion : +27% July 4 th, 218 MWh 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

4 July 4 th, THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (75% market share) MWh 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid MWh 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

5 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET >75 BILLION US$ in 217 Pack level 1 9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (21-217) July 4 th, 218 Billion US $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Billion US$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen DC converters, invertors ) not included concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 218 5

6 LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS July 4 th, >12 MWh - 28 B$ (1) CAGR 27/ % per year in Volume M Wh 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, (1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 218 Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices Auto, E-bus Excl. China 2% Portable Electronics 17% Electronic devices 26% 2: < 2GWh Portable PC 66% Phones 17% 217: >12 GWh Auto, E-bus China 37% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 12% 6

7 LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS +12 MWh - 27 B$ (1) 7 3 M small cells CAGR 27/ % per year in Volume Cell: +16% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value 3, Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, , Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, July 4 th, M$ 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 218 Others Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China M$ 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Auto, e-bus 1, Excl. China 5, Electronic devices

8 July 4 th, LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 6 TO 7% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT Production cost LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 4 Ah EV pouch cell NMC 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Direct labor 1% Average cost structure of Li-ion cell Overheads 3% Sales & Adm 3% R&D 5% Energy, utilities 4% Depreciation 16% Warranty 5% Margin 3% Other materials 11% Scraps 3% Cathode cost 27% Separator 8% Anode cost 5% Electrolyte 6% 8

9 LIB CATHODE MATERIAL July 4 th, 218 Cathode raw materials market (1) M= Fe or Mn LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4 (1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 NCA Source: SANYO, March 211 $/kg Ni & Co price Ni Co Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 212 Nice Source: LME 9

10 July 4 th, CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, (Demand) Tons 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: > LFP ( ) LMO NCA NMC LCO Rationales In 217, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs NMC is used in other electronic devices & xev NCA is used by 1865 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xev LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xev LFP is used in xev, e-buses in China and for industrial applications 1

11 July 4 th, CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS Cathode active materials Tons Tons 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%) ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: : +5-6% per year in volume HEV: 3 M HEV/year in 22, 4,2 M HEV in 225 P-HEV:,65 M P-HEV/year in 22, 1,4 M in 225 EV: 1,9 M EV/year in 22 (1,3 M in China) / 4 M/year in 225 (2,8 M in China) 1% LIB Industrial, stationary & other applications : +16% per year % Cathode active materials in 217 > 275 Tons LFP 38% LMO 6% NCA 9% LCO 14% NMC 33% Cathode active materials in Tons LMO 1% NCA 8% LFP 15% LCO 6% NMC 7% Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+35 EV sold per year in 225 TESLA forecast 5 ) Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

12 METAL NEEDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY Cobalt Nickel Lithium 14 7% 35 14% 45 9% July 4 th, 218 Tons % 5% 4% 3% 2% % of the Global production Tons % 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% % of the Global production Tons (LCE) % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % of the Global production 3% 1 2% 2 1% 5 2% 1% 5 1% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 218 % % % 12

13 July 4 th, LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) MWh CAGR 17-25: + 5% Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) M cells/year Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 13

14 X-EV MARKET Why x-ev? Definition & segmentation 45, 4, CAGR :+ 24% 39 GWh X-EV worldwide in , E-buses July 4 th, By country By car makers By battery chemistry X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts X-EV battery forecasts MWh for Auto & E-buses 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - 71 GWh 17 GWh PHEV & EV in China EV PHEV HEV Micro HEV 14

15 July 4 th, HEV WORLDWIDE IN 217 2,3 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, TOYOTA OTHERS Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, JAPON USA EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included HEV sales per year Penetration of HEV 3% 2% 1% % Growth : +2% From 1,9 M to 2,3 M HEV Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US Gasoline $ / Gallon 15

16 PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 37 IN 217 July 4 th, World excl. China growth +32% Chinese Growth + 26% P-HEV (units) % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, OTHERS CHINA SAIC BYD OTHERS CHRYSLER AUDI PORSCHE HYUNDAI VOLVO DAIMLER BMW HONDA MITSUBISHI VW FORD TOYOTA GM P-HEV (units) China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Others 5% CHINA 26% EUROPE 37% US 24% JAPAN 8% Europe (+26%) China (+26%) USA (+15%) Japan Others 16

17 July 4 th, EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 8 IN 217 World excl. China growth >26% Chinese Growth > 8% EV (units) > 55% Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, Other China HAWTAI SAIC GAC DongFeng Nissan Chana JMC CHERY JAC Geely BAIC Zhidou Zotye Kandi BYD Others BOLLORE PSA Honda MITSUBISHI DAIMLER FIAT GM Ford KIA VW SMART BMW Toyota EV (units) China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - CHINA 63% Others 3% US 12% JAPAN 2% EUROPE 2% China (+8%) Europe (+42%) USA (+12%) Others Japan 17

18 NEV* DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA >6 PHEV & EV sold in China in 217 PHEV 16% PHEV & EV evolution July 4 th, JMC 5% Tesla 2% HAWTAI 2% CHERY 4% Other China 27% JAC 5% Geely 4% EV 84% *NEV=PHEV+EV (New Energy Vehicles) BYD 15% BAIC 16% Zhidou 8% SAIC 5% Kandi 2% Zotye 5% PHEV & EV sales (Units) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aou Sep Oct Nov Dec

19 LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US July 4 th, 218 $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 217 USA 2% LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 218 $ 36 M 2-3 GWh 218 $ 5 M(2) 34 GWh 228 EU -<1% SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE $ 5 M (2) 32 GWh M$ 7,5 GWh 22 China 6% BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) Others* 5% SAMSUNG LG Korea 15% SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam Japan 17% Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA Source: AVICENNE 217 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only (2) AVICENNE Estimation Prod. Capacity MWh

20 SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns July 4 th, 218 Background Mobile Automotive In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Aircraft Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 2

21 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues July 4 th, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

22 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY July 4 th, The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF 6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 2 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (2 years ago). So, it takes between 1 & 2 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. 22

23 July 4 th, LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (4 Ah pouch) (EV design ; NMC cathode) $ / kwh (1) Active materials only Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 218 Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Others Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV Cell Pack 217 Cell Pack Cell Pack * For Production > 1 packs/year Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 23

24 HEV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured % 9% 8% , ,9 7 6 July 4 th, Million cars World Excl. China HEV: 1kWh battery / car 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % % Li-ion HEV Million cars ,8.8.6, PHEV: 12 kwh battery / car World Excl. China China Million cars , World Excl. China China kwh / EV

25 BATTERY DEMAND - XEV 225 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +24% 45 4 Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR : +17% July 4 th, 218 M Wh M $ volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China E-bus excl. China volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 25

26 LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 12 GWh in 217 to 52 GWh CAGR 217/ % per year in Volume M Wh 6, 5, 4, 3, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, Others Industrial, ESS CAGR 15/25 (Realistic) 18% 23% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 2% 217: >12 GWh Electronic devices 26% Auto, E-bus China 37% Industrial, ESS 5% Others 12% July 4 th, , 1, Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 218 Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices 31% 25% 5% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 23% 225: 52 GWh Electronic devices 9% Auto, E-bus China 52% Others 11% Industrial, ESS 5% 26

27 July 4 th, TAKEAWAYS CAGR = +9% / Li-ion>+13% Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 18 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 65 B$ in 225 with high numbers in China (217: US$6 Billion for xev and US$ 5 Billion for xe-buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for 3% of the auto sales in 22 P-HEV & EV for 2% to 3% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% in 22/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid in value from 218. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 1% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial ) will reach 1 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 15 $/kwh MWh RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 44 GWh 325 GWh 21 GWh B$ 3B$ > 1 GWh 65 B$ 11 B$ Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard 27 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid >15 B$ (Pack level) 3 43B$ Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%) LIB for xev (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%) (CAGR )

28 THANK YOU AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile: July 4 th,