Market Shifts: Infrastructure in the Northeast

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1 Market Shifts: Infrastructure in the Northeast Colette Breshears, Natural Gas & Infrastructure Intelligence October 19, 2017 US: EU:

2 Agenda Genscape who are we & who am I Where we ve been Legacy Infrastructure Swelling production in new areas of the country Where we are and where we re going Pipeline reversals Build-out shifting supply/demand balances What does this mean for the Northeast? Rover, Leach XPress, NEXUS, Atlantic Sunrise Export/Regional 2

Genscape: Data and Intelligence for Global Commodity and Energy Markets Genscape is the originator of independently measured oil storage volumes, pipeline flows, refinery operations, and power plant

3 Genscape: Data and Intelligence for Global Commodity and Energy Markets Genscape is the originator of independently measured oil storage volumes, pipeline flows, refinery operations, and power plant electricity output Provides fundamentals-driven market intelligence Subscribers have access to critical market data - Cushing Volumes 48 hours before EIA data Spring Rock Production Forward Analytics - 30-min flow updates and real-time alerts on key pipelines Oil, Natural Gas & NGL Genscape s analytical forecasting arm Founded in 2011, acquired by Genscape in April 2012 Detailed 5-year Natural Gas, Oil and NGL Production forecasts for the U.S. and Canada Rapidly growing Various industry backgrounds ranging from petroleum engineers to traders Constantly working on integrating new approaches and products Infrastructure Intelligence 3

5 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Historically Winter 2008/2009 Production (Bcf/d) ~60 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 5

6 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Historically Winter 2008/2009 Production (Bcf/d) ~60 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 6

7 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now Winter 2016/2017 Production (Bcf/d) ~79 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 7

8 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply Basins, Now Winter 2016/2017 Production (Bcf/d) ~79 Bcf/d Oil Source: Spring Rock 8

9 With Production and Demand Shifts, Infrastructure Shifts US: EU:

10 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply, 2008 EIA, 2008

11 Infrastructure Shifts: Supply, Now and Future Infrastructure is the balancing force between supply and demand Reversals: low-hanging fruit - almost all complete New Projects: greenfield pipelines and laterals Supplement reversals Development of new markets EPP, Oct

13 Northeast Production Growth (Year on Year Changes) 4,500 4,000 +3,769 +4,086 3,500 3,000 +2,975 +3,048 +2,960 mmcfd 2,500 2,000 1,500 +2,046 +2,367 +1,789 1, Source: Spring Rock September Forecast 13

14 Northeast Production: NE PA Dry Production Constrained 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 8,200 8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400 7,200 Total NE PA Production TGP-Z4 Marcellus Price $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $3.00 $2.80 $2.60 $2.40 $2.20 $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $ COG Production strongly related to price signals $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 $0.75 $0.50 $0.25 $ /1/14 12/22/14 1/12/15 2/2/15 2/23/15 3/16/15 4/6/15 4/27/15 5/18/15 6/8/15 6/29/15 7/20/15 8/10/15 8/31/15 9/21/15 10/12/15 11/2/15 11/23/15 12/14/15 1/4/16 1/25/16 2/15/16 3/7/16 3/28/16 4/18/16 5/9/16 5/30/16 6/20/16 7/11/16 8/1/16 8/22/16 9/12/16 10/3/16 10/24/16 11/14/16 12/5/16 12/26/16 1/16/17 2/6/17 2/27/17 3/20/17 4/10/17 5/1/17 5/22/17 6/12/17 7/3/17 7/24/17 8/14/17 9/4/17 COG TGP-Z4 Marcellus Leidy Transco 14

15 Infrastructure Shifts: Integration with Production Northeast production has been extremely dependent on infrastructure export capacity for several years - So much supply it can t escape However, production is still independent of capacity and has been gaining more independence as infra comes online Production levels are closely linked to local hub prices and E&P company behavior; ease of shut-in can cause wells to act as storage Incremental MMcf/d since mid ,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 Large deconstraints are 4,000 expected in late 2017/2018 TEAM Jul-14 Leidy Southeast Full Leidy Southeast Partial Sep-14 OPEN Phase I Nov-14 Jan-15 Production Forecast vs. Pipeline Expansions callouts represent significant projects *high risk for delay beyond date Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 REX Z3 Expansion Nov-15 Lebanon West II AIM Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Rover Phase 2* Rover Phase 1B* Leach XPress Adair SW, Access South Rover Phase 1A Atlantic Sunrise P1 Gibraltar Ohio Valley Connector Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Atlantic Bridge Broad Run May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Mountaineer*/WB XPress* NEXUS Eastern Market Access Atlantic Sunrise P2 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 TEAL PennEast*, Appalachia to Market* Export, no demand Export + Demand Regional Production Growth Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 15

16 Infrastructure Shifts: Export by Corridor West: 5.4 Bcf/d Grand Total: 19.1 Bcf/d 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Incremental MMcf/d since mid 2014 Incremental Capacity 2017 through 2020 West East/Northeast Canada South via Ohio South via Atlantic Coast 16

17 Infrastructure Shifts: Upcoming Export Projects for Whole NE Project Name Pipeline Pipeline Corridor Status Stated Capacity Stated Start Date Algonquin Incremental Market - Full Capacity Algonquin East/Northeast Operating 97 1/1/2017 East-to-West Zone 3 Expansion Phase 2 REX West Operating 350 1/1/2017 Northern Supply Access Project TGT South Ohio Operating 284 4/1/2017 REX Zone 3 Additional Capacity REX West Operating 150 6/1/2017 Gulf Markets Expansion Phase 2 TETCO South Ohio Operating - 8/1/2017 Lebanon Extension Project TETCO West Operating 102 8/1/2017 ET Rover Pipeline Phase I - Partial Service - Cadiz to Defiance Rover West Operating 850 9/1/2017 Atlantic Sunrise / Central Penn Pipeline - Partial Service TRANSCO South Atlantic Operating 400 9/1/2017 New Market Project DTI East/Northeast In-Service Notification Submitted /1/2017 Access South TETCO South Ohio Under Late Construction /1/2017 Adair Southwest Project TETCO South Ohio Under Late Construction /1/2017 Connecticut Expansion Project TGP East/Northeast Under Late Construction 72 11/1/2017 Leach XPress TCO South Ohio Under Late Construction 1,500 11/1/2017 Atlantic Bridge Service Algonquin East/Northeast Under Late Construction 34 11/1/2017 ET Rover Pipeline Phase I - Full Service - Berne to Defiance Rover West Under Late Construction /1/2017 ET Rover Pipeline Phase 2 - Defiance to Vector Rover West Under Early Construction 1,625 3/1/2018 Atlantic Bridge Service Algonquin East/Northeast Certificate Issued 98 6/1/2018 Broad Run Expansion TGP South Ohio Under Early Construction 200 6/1/2018 Atlantic Sunrise / Central Penn Pipeline TRANSCO South Atlantic Under Early Construction 1,300 7/1/2018 NEXUS Gas Transmission NEXUS West Certificate Issued 1,500 9/1/2018 Appalachian Connector (prev. Western Marcellus Pipeline Project) TRANSCO South Atlantic Open Season Completed 2,000 9/1/2018 Eastern System Upgrade Millennium East/Northeast EA/EIS Issued 233 9/1/2018 Mountaineer Xpress TCO South Ohio EA/EIS Issued 2,700 11/1/2018 WB Xpress TCO South Ohio EA/EIS Issued 1,300 11/1/2018 ANR East Project ANR West Announced 2,000 11/1/2018 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - SEML Modification ANR South Ohio Open Season Completed /1/2018 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - Tie-Line Expansion ANR South Ohio Open Season Completed /1/2018 Gulf Coast and Midwest Market Access - Willow Run Horsepower Expansion ANR South Ohio Open Season Completed /1/2018 Wright Interconnect Project Constitution East/Northeast Certificate Issued /1/2018 Mountain Valley Pipeline EQT South Atlantic Certificate Issued 2,000 12/1/2018 Constitution Pipeline Constitution East/Northeast Under Early Construction 650 6/1/2019 Empire North Expansion NFG Canada Open Season Completed /1/2019 Lambertville East TETCO South Ohio Open Season Completed 60 11/1/2019 Northern Access Replacement (Empire) Empire Canada Certificate Issued /1/2019 Northern Access Mainline (NFG) NFG Canada Certificate Issued /1/

18 Infrastructure Shifts: The Ohio Three REX Zone 3 (online) Rover (Phase 1 & Phase 2) Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: Sep 2017/ Q / Q (our EISDs: Partial Phase 1 in Sep 17, Full Phase 1 in Dec 17, Phase 2 in Mar/Apr 18) Risk to stated date: High HDD moratorium, dispute with OH EPA Capacity: 3,250 MMcf/d overall (our phases: Partial Phase 1,.85 Bcf/d; Full Phase 1, Bcf/d; Phase 2, Bcf/d) Shippers: Ascent (1100), Antero (800), Range (400), Southwestern (200), Gulfport (150), EQT (150), Rice (100), Eclipse (100), EdgeMarc (100), uncontracted (100) NEXUS & TEAL (TETCO) Has Certificate Under Construction in October 2017 Stated In Service: 2018 (EISD: September 2018) Risk to stated date: Low Capacity: 1,500 MMcf/d (885 MMcf/d contracted) Shippers: Union Gas (150), Enbridge (150), Columbia Gas of Ohio (50), DTE Gas (75), DTE Electric (75), CNX (150), Noble (75), Chesapeake (200), uncontracted/unknown (565) Leach XPress (TCO) Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: November 2017 (EISD: Agrees on November 2017) Risk to stated date: Medium-Low under construction but going smoothly Capacity: 1,500 MMcf/d Shippers: Kaiser Francis (400), Ascent (400), Range (300), Noble (200), Gulfport (100), uncontracted (100) 18

Infrastructure Shifts: TETCO and Atlantic Sunrise Atlantic Sunrise (TRANSCO) Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: July

full) Shippers: Cabot (850), Chief O&G (420), Seneca Resources (190), Southern Company Services (60), Anadarko (44), Southwestern (44),

Construction ONLINE IN Stated In Service: November 2017 AUGUST 2017 Risk to stated date: Low Capacity: 622 MMcf/d (200, 320 and 102

19 Infrastructure Shifts: TETCO and Atlantic Sunrise Atlantic Sunrise (TRANSCO) Has Certificate Under Construction Stated In Service: July 2018 (partial service in September 2017) Risk to stated date: Low Capacity: 1,700 MMcf/d (400 MMcf/d for partial service, for full) Shippers: Cabot (850), Chief O&G (420), Seneca Resources (190), Southern Company Services (60), Anadarko (44), Southwestern (44), WGL Midstream (44), Inflection Energy (26), MMGS (22) Adair Southwest, Access South & Lebanon Extension (TETCO) Has Certificate Under Construction ONLINE IN Stated In Service: November 2017 AUGUST 2017 Risk to stated date: Low Capacity: 622 MMcf/d (200, 320 and 102 MMcf/d, respectively) Shippers: Range Resources (Adair Southwest), Rice Energy (Access South), Gulfport & City of Hamilton (Lebanon Extension) 19

20 Infrastructure Shifts: Recent/Upcoming Pennsylvanian Pipes 20 Project Name Pipeline FERC Docket State Status Stated Start Date Stated Capacity Sunbury Pipeline Sunbury CP PA Operating 1/1/ White Oak Mainline Expansion Project Eastern Shore CP15-18 DE/PA Operating 3/1/ TP-371 Pipeline Replacement Project EQT CP PA Operating 6/1/ Lebanon Extension Project TETCO CP16-3 OH/PA Operating 8/1/ Line 138 Abandonment/ Line 138 Lateral TCO CP PA Operating 8/1/2017 Susquehanna West Project TGP CP PA Operating 9/1/ Atlantic Sunrise / Central Penn Pipeline - Partial Service Transco CP PA/WV Operating 9/1/ Leidy South Expansion DTI CP PA/MD/VA Operating 10/1/ New York Bay Expansion Project Transco CP NY/NJ/PA Operating 10/1/ Expansion Project Eastern Shore CP17-28 PA/MD/DE Certificate Issued 11/1/ New Market Project DTI CP PA/NY In-Service Notification Submitted 11/1/ Leach XPress TCO CP PA/OH/WV Under Late Construction 11/1/ Orion (Formerly known as Marcellus to Milford) TGP CP16-4 PA Under Late Construction 11/1/ Triad Expansion Project TGP CP PA Under Late Construction 11/1/ Tri-County Bare Steel Replacement: Segment II and III TCO CP15-95 PA Under Late Construction 11/1/ Line D Expansion NFG CP16-37 PA Under Late Construction 2/1/ Montour Plant Lateral PA Announced 6/1/2018 Atlantic Bridge Full Service Algonquin CP16-9 PA/NY/CT/RI/NH/ME Certificate Issued 6/1/ Birdsboro Pipeline TETCO CP PA Filed 6/1/ Diamond East Transco PA Open Season Completed 6/1/ Atlantic Sunrise / Central Penn Pipeline - Full Service Transco CP PA/WV Under Early Construction 7/1/ PennEast Pipeline PennEast CP PA/NJ EA/EIS Issued 10/1/ Appalachia to Market (A2M) TETCO PA Announced 11/1/ Mountaineer Xpress TCO CP OH/PA/WV EA/EIS Issued 11/1/ Eastern Panhandle Market Expansion Supply Lateral TCO CP17-80 PA/MD/WV Filed 11/1/ Greater Philadelphia Expansion TETCO PA Open Season Completed 11/1/ Expansion Project Eastern Shore PA/MD/DE Open Season Completed 11/1/2018 Equitrans Expansion Project EQT CP16-13 PA/WV Certificate Issued 12/1/ MARC II MARC PA Announced 1/1/ Grand Passage Project Transco PA Open Season Completed 3/1/2019 Constitution Pipeline Constitution CP PA/NY Under Early Construction 6/1/ Line N Expansion NFG PA Open Season Completed 7/1/ Empire North Expansion Empire PA/NY Open Season Completed 11/1/ Expansion Project Eastern Shore PA/MD/DE Open Season Completed 11/1/2019 Sweden Valley DTI OH/PA Announced 12/1/ DTI Supply Header DTI CP PA/WV Certificate Issued 12/1/ Northern Access Mainline (NFG) NFG CP NY/PA Certificate Issued 12/1/ Northeast Supply Enhancement Project Transco CP PA/NJ Filed 12/1/ FM 100 Modernization NFG PF17-10 PA Pre-Filed 4/1/ Line N Expansion NFG PA Open Season Completed 7/1/ Expansion Project Eastern Shore PA/MD/DE Open Season Completed 11/1/2020

21 New York Projects: Stalled but FERC is starting to take action 21

22 Infrastructure Shifts: Challenges for Pipelines Permitting Federal: FERC, USACE State: DEQ, DEP, etc. County: Township City Landowner Protest and Legal Action Local opinion Construction Eminent Domain Weather Supplies Protest and Legal Action Local opinion $$ Source: FERC filings 22

23 Bonus Pipeline Construction Photos from our recon flights this summer Rover Mainline Rover Mainline Rover Seneca CS Leach Mainline 23

24 Closing Slide To follow up, request a free trial or learn more, visit: genscape.com/natural-gas-infrastructure-intelligence Contact Me: Colette Breshears Natural Gas & Infrastructure Intelligence cbreshears@genscape.com Skype: cbreshears_1 AIM: colettebreshears@gmail.com USA Louisville Genscape, Inc Garvin Place Louisville, KY Europe Amsterdam Genscape International, Inc. Damrak 20A 1012 LH Amsterdam The Netherlands info@genscape.com US: EU:

Association of Energy Engineers January 9, Michael Dirrane Director, Northeast Marketing

Association of Energy Engineers January 9, 2013 Michael Dirrane Director, Northeast Marketing Spectra Energy U.S. Transmission Map Miles of Pipe 13,297 Number of Compressor Stations 129 Total Horsepower