2016 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 2016 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK Stefan Linder Sunrun 1/18/2016 San Diego, CA

2 TOP 5 THINGS TO EXPECT IN RESIDENTIAL SOLAR IN ) The ITC extension brings certainty into the market creates an extra 6GW, 1M systems, and ~$15bn in investment 2) Utilities double down to battle net metering but we will be up for the fight 3) Cost structures will fall due to industry maturation and competition 4) Major players will focus on smart growth rather than growth at any cost 5) Batteries will be deployed because it makes economic sense in Hawaii. The mainland will be a couple years behind.

3 GOOGLE SEARCH TRENDS, Go Solar Solar Tesla President Trump

4 GOOGLE SEARCH TRENDS, Go Solar Solar Tesla President Trump

5 GOOGLE SEARCH TRENDS, Go Solar Solar Tesla President Trump

6 AGENDA Sizing the market Market shares Pricing trends

7 RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PENETRATION IN KEY MARKETS 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - CA NY NJ AZ MA CO HI Single-unit, detached, owned-occupied homes Residential solar projects Source: GTM Research, US Census

8 THE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY MARKET IS ONE OF THE LARGEST Listed companies are representative of sectors. Revenue totals listed are 2014 totals or most recent 2014 estimated revenue. See appendix for sources

9 EVEN WITH SIGNIFICANT GROWTH, NATIONAL PENETRATION REMAINS LOW (11) Current market penetration calculation uses GTM residential cumulative MW installation data, an assumed industry-wide residential system size of 6.5 kw, 2013 census data for total housing units, and EIA data for residential electricity revenue to calculate penetration (12) Estimated 2020 market penetration assumes housing units remain flat at 2013 levels (Census data), and uses kwh pricing and consumption data from EIA s 2020 U.S. Electricity Spend as per EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2015 report to calculate total residential electricity revenue in 2020

10 NATIONAL FORECAST BEFORE AND AFTER THE ITC EXTENSION (MW) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Before ITC extension After ITC extension = ~6GW, 1M systems 3,000 2,000 1, , E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

11 NATIONAL FORECAST BEFORE AND AFTER THE ITC EXTENSION (MW) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Before ITC extension After ITC extension = ~6GW, 1M systems 3,000 2,000 1, , E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

12 KEY STATE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST (MW) NY MA NJ AZ MD CT Source: GTM Research

13 AGENDA Sizing the market Market shares Pricing trends

14 THE LARGEST MARKET PLAYERS ARE HOLDING SHARE % OF MW INSTALLED 100% 90% 80% 70% 63% 55% 48% 55% 52% 40% 35% 43% 42% 40% 40% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 11% 6% 20% 12% 8% 25% 12% 11% 13% 8% 7% 8% 31% 27% 27% 15% 13% 32% 14% 12% 14% 13% 12% 15% 12% 11% 13% 11% 37% 34% 33% 34% 37% Other Next 10 Vivint Solar SolarCity 0% Source: GTM Research

15 AS MARKET GROWTH RAPIDLY PICKS UP TOTAL MW INSTALLED 70% Y/Y Growth Source: GTM Research

16 MEANING BOTH LARGE AND SMALL INSTALLERS ARE EXPERIENCING GROWTH TOTAL MW INSTALLED Other Next 10 Vivint Solar SolarCity Source: GTM Research

17 RESIDENTIAL MARKET SHARE Q1-Q SCE AND AZ PG&E 253MW SCE 212MW Other, 35.6% SolarCity, 38.7% Other, 36% SolarCity, 25% Vivint Solar, 9% SunWork, 0.8% Westhaven, 0.8% Alternative Energy Systems, 0.9% Sun Solar Energy Solutions, 1.3% The Solar Company, 1.1% REPOWER by Solar Universe, 1.4% Sungevity, 2.0% PetersenDean, 2.5% Vivint Solar, 10.0% Sunrun, 4.9% Sunstreet Energy, 2% SolarMax Technology, 2% Suncrest Solar, 2% Sungevity, 2% Solcius, 2% Solar Electric Service Center, 3% PetersenDean, 3% Verengo, 5% Horizon Solar Power, 5% Sunrun, 5% Source: GTM Research

18 RESIDENTIAL MARKET SHARE Q1-Q CO AND HI SDG&E 82MW AZ 84MW SolarCity, 22% American Solar Electric, 1.4% Other, 19% Other, 39% Harmon Solar, 1.6% Baker Electric Solar, 6% Arcadia Solar, 1.7% Streamline Solar Power Systems, 2.0% SolarCity, 47.7% Sunrun, 6% Arizona Solar Solutions, 2.1% American Solar Direct, 1% Solare Energy, 2% Brite Energy, 1% Asi Hastings, 2% T & M Solar, 1% Sungevity, 2% Stellar Energy, 3% Sullivan Solar Power, 5% Vivint Solar, 5% Semper Solaris, 3% Solar Topps, 3.5% Sun Valley Solar Solutions, 4.3% Sunrun, 5.3% Vivint Solar, 11.8% Source: GTM Research

19 THIRD-PARTY OWNED (TPO) MARKET SHARE, Q % 23% 59% 31% 9% 47% 53% 77% 41% 69% 91% 53% Non-TPO TPO CA AZ CO MA NJ NY Source: GTM Research

20 Source: EnergySage LOAN PROVIDER MARKET SHARE (H1 2015)

21 AGENDA Sizing the market Market shares Pricing trends

22 CA: $4.79 AZ: $3.90 MA: $4.69 NY: $4.44 TX: $3.09 REPORTED CAPACITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICES

23 SYSTEM COSTS ($/W) $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $ $2.00 $ G&A S&M Install $1.50 Total $ $0.50 $0.00 GTM ResearchSolarCity costs - modeled cost Vivint Solar costs Source: GTM Research, SolarCity, Vivint Solar

24 AVERAGE SYSTEM COST, Q Q ($/W) Direct hard costs down 14% Y/Y Soft costs & margin UP 14% Y/Y Total system costs stay about flat $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $1.48 $0.28 $0.36 $0.20 $0.18 $1.49 $1.59 $0.26 $0.25 $1.58 $1.68 $0.24 $0.23 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.34 $0.18 $0.14 $0.12 $0.19 $0.12 $0.21 $0.21 $0.21 $0.35 $0.30 $0.29 $0.27 $0.29 Supply Chain, Overhead, Margin Engineering and PII Direct Labor Structural BOS Electrical BOS Inverter Modules $0.50 $0.00 $0.79 $0.77 $0.75 $0.73 $0.68 Q Q Q Q Q3 2015

25 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS?