California Regional Travel & Tourism Outlook. September 2016

Transcription

1 California Regional Travel & Tourism Outlook September 2016

2 California regional & seasonal travel trends The number of visits to California regions surpasses that of total California visits in a given year. This is because visitors to the state tend to visit more than one region while on their trip. 2 In aggregate, California s twelve primary regions received approximately 1.3 trips to every California trip in The San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, Orange County, and San Diego County regions remain the top regional California destinations, accounting for over 65% of total visits to California regions in The most robust growth in visits occurred in the Gold Country, Central Valley, Deserts, and Inland Empire regions, all posting growth at or above 5.0%. The High Sierra and Orange Country regions also grew markedly in Spring Break and the summer months are the most popular travel seasons for coastal regions, while the Deserts region reaches peak travel demand in the first half of the year. Recently, the seasonal pattern of travel to the Inland Empire region has resembled that of the coast.

3 Regional trips forecast growth Annual Trips to California Regions (Annual % Change) California Total 9.0% 4.9% 3.1% 5.6% 3.5% 4.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% Sum of CA Regions 8.7% 4.9% 3.1% 5.4% 3.5% 4.7% 2.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% Central Coast 5.9% 5.4% 3.0% 5.6% 4.5% 4.6% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% Central Valley 8.3% 5.5% 2.6% -9.5% 2.0% 5.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% Deserts 11.4% 4.7% 3.6% 4.8% 2.2% 5.1% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% Gold Country 9.1% 4.5% 2.6% -1.9% 0.9% 6.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% High Sierra 10.6% 3.8% 2.5% -4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% Inland Empire 10.5% 4.8% 3.5% -2.8% 5.8% 5.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% Los Angeles County 9.0% 5.3% 3.2% 14.6% 3.5% 3.9% 2.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.9% North Coast 7.8% 2.5% 0.6% -1.0% 6.4% 3.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% Orange County 7.9% 4.6% 3.0% 6.6% 3.9% 4.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% Shasta Cascade 8.4% 3.3% 3.2% -0.2% 5.8% 3.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% San Diego County 8.4% 4.4% 2.7% 5.5% 3.5% 4.7% 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% San Francisco Bay Area 8.1% 5.2% 3.4% 7.8% 3.1% 4.7% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 3

4 Regional trips forecast Annual Trips to California Regions (Millions) California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 4

5 Seasonal trips forecast Quarterly Trips to California Regions (Millions) 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 5

6 Seasonal trips forecast Quarterly Trips to California Regions (Millions) 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 6

7 Seasonal trips forecast Quarterly Trips to California Regions (Millions) 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 7

8 Seasonal trips forecast Quarterly Trips to California Regions (Millions) 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Source: Tourism Economics, DKSA 8

9 California regional & seasonal travel spending The sum of all travel spending in California regions equates to the total amount of travel spending in California for a given year. Travel spending growth was highest in the North Coast, High Sierra, and Gold Country regions in 2015, with each posting growth of over 4.0%. Orange County and Deserts regional travel growth came in just under 4.0%. In terms of spending levels, the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, San Diego County, and Orange County regions remain on top. Similarly to the trends in visits, travel spending is highest during the second and third quarters of the year along California s coast, while most rural areas to the east and north see more inbound travel spending in the first half of the year though, the Inland Empire and Gold Country regions have started to more closely resemble the coastal spending patterns. 9

10 Regional travel spending forecast growth Annual Travel Spending in California Regions (Annual % Change) California Total 8.9% 7.0% 3.0% 2.5% 4.5% 3.4% 3.6% 4.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.7% Sum of CA Regions 7.9% 6.9% 3.1% 2.6% 4.4% 3.5% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% Central Coast 5.8% 6.6% 4.6% 2.9% 4.3% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% Central Valley 10.5% 7.3% 1.8% -0.1% 2.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% Deserts 7.0% 7.7% 3.6% -0.2% 2.8% 3.9% 3.2% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% Gold Country 7.1% 5.6% 2.9% 1.9% 3.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7% High Sierra 2.2% 0.0% 8.3% 1.7% 2.9% 4.7% 3.1% 3.5% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% Inland Empire 8.7% 5.9% 1.2% -0.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% Los Angeles County 8.8% 7.8% 2.4% 2.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.7% 4.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% North Coast -1.0% 3.3% 7.6% 0.0% 1.1% 6.4% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% Orange County 6.7% 7.1% 1.4% 3.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.9% 4.4% 4.3% 4.5% Shasta Cascade 5.0% 4.3% 2.6% -1.2% 1.9% 3.6% 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.7% San Diego County 10.9% 6.8% 2.4% 2.1% 5.8% 3.2% 3.8% 4.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% San Francisco Bay Area 7.2% 7.2% 4.1% 5.2% 5.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 10

11 Regional travel spending forecast Annual Travel Spending in California Regions ($ Billions) California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 11

12 Seasonal travel spending forecast Quarterly Travel Spending in California Regions ($ Billions) 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 12

13 Seasonal travel spending forecast Quarterly Travel Spending in California Regions ($ Billions) 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 13

14 Seasonal travel spending forecast Quarterly Travel Spending in California Regions ($ Billions) 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Q Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 14

15 Seasonal travel spending forecast Quarterly Travel Spending in California Regions ($ Billions) 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 California Total Sum of CA Regions Central Coast Central Valley Deserts Gold Country High Sierra Inland Empire Los Angeles County North Coast Orange County Shasta Cascade San Diego County San Francisco Bay Area Source: Tourism Economics, Dean Runyan 15

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