U.S. Solar Market Insight 2012 Year-In-Review

Transcription

1 2012 SEIA 2012 SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 2012 Year-In-Review Justin Baca Director of Research Solar Energy Industries Association Andrew Krulewitz Solar Analyst GTM Research

2 2012 SEIA About SEIA Founded in 1974 U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy 1,000 member companies from around the world Members from across 50 states Largest companies in the world as well as small installers Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015

3 2012 SEIA Solar Market Insight: 2012 Year-In-Review Detailed data on markets in top 25 states plus DC available in full report. Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts. Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes quarterly forecasts as well as detailed market segment and state data.

4 Billions ($) 2012 SEIA Solar Is an Economic Engine The value of U.S. solar installations was $11.5 billion in 2012, up from $8.6 billion in 2011 There are now over 119,000 solar workers in the U.S., a 13% increase over 2011 employment totals* Value of U.S. Solar Installations U.S. Solar Workforce $14.0 $12.0 $ $ $ $ $ $ SEIA Estimate SEIA/GTM Research SEIA Estimate The Solar Foundation *(The Solar Foundation 2012 National Solar Jobs Census)

5 Installed Capacity (MW) 2012 SEIA Solar Continues to Boom- 3,313 MW Installed in 2012 Record Q4 with 1,300 MW deployed 3500 New U.S. Solar Electric Installations Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

6 Record Quarter for Utility and Residential Markets Installed Capacity (MW) 2012 SEIA MW MW MW Residential Commercial Utility Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 2012

7 Blended Average System Price ($/W) 2012 SEIA Solar More Affordable Than Ever Average system prices declined 27% over the past year $12.00 Blended Average System Prices $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $ LBNL "Tracking the Sun IV" SEIA/GTM Research

8 2012 SEIA State 2012 Performance 11 states installed 50 MW or more in 2012 The Massachusetts market more than quadrupled in new PV capacity from 2011 to 2012 California s residential and commercial markets led the nation 1. California 2. Arizona 3. New Jersey 4. Nevada 5. North Carolina 6. Massachusetts 7. Hawaii 8. Maryland 9. Texas Residential Commercial Utility Hawaii s market grew 10. New York 169% in 2012 over ,000 1, MW 132 MW 415 MW 710 MW 1,033 MW

9 2012 SEIA Fun With Rankings Cumulative Solar Electric Capacity Installed Solar Electric Watts/Capita Number of Homes Powered by Installed Solar Capacity California 1,033 Arizona 167 California 547,085 Arizona 710 Nevada 146 New Jersey 138,951 New Jersey 415 Hawaii 137 Arizona 138,731 Nevada 198 New Jersey 110 Nevada 48,641 North Carolina 132 New Mexico 91 Colorado 43,049 Massachusetts 129 California 76 New Mexico 37,463 Hawaii 109 Colorado 52 Hawaii 37,269 Maryland 74 Delaware 48 Massachusetts 32,075 Texas 64 Vermont 34 New York 27,035 New York 61 Massachusetts 30 North Carolina 21, , , , ,000

10 Installed Capacity (MW) 2012 SEIA What to Expect in ,300 MW of PV and 940 MW of CSP expected to come online in 2013 Residential market to show most significant growth Utility market projected to grow 31% in 2013, compared to 134% in ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, vs. 2013E PV Installations E

11 2012 SEIA PV Installations By Major Markets E All Others 16% All Others 17% California 31% Next 5 States 19% Next 5 States 16% California 48% New Jersey 13% Arizona 21% New Jersey 8% Arizona 11%

12 Installed Capacity (MW) 2012 SEIA Another Record Year of Installations U.S. PV market expected to grow 29% in 2013, significantly higher than the global rate PV Installation Forecast , , ,269 5, E 2014E 2015E 2016E Residential Commercial Utility

13 Installed Capacity (MW) 2012 SEIA Significant CSP To Come Online in 2013 The current CSP pipeline contains 2,700 MW of projects with signed PPAs 1,000 U.S. CSP Installations and Forecast Installations Forecast

14 2012 SEIA SEIA s 10 GW Goal Within Reach SEIA s goal of 10 GW annually by 2015 is achievable, but additional policies are needed, including: Policies to support financing of solar projects Removal of barriers to solar deployment Development of alternative financing mechanisms Interconnection Standards Efficient Permitting Processes

15 U.S. PV Market Growth,

16 With growth comes cost reductions Source: U.S. Solar Market Insight, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

17 Installations by Market Segment 488 MWdc of new residential capacity came online in 2012, representing 63% growth over ,043 MWdc of new non-residential capacity came online in 2012, representing 8% growth over ,782 MWdc of new utility capacity came online in 2012, representing 97% growth over 2011

18 Residential Installations by State California continues on as the largest residential market by far, installing 196 MWdc of new residential capacity in 2012, more than the next four largest state residential markets combined Hawaii s market showed strong growth throughout 2012, peaking in Q4; in total, 57 MWdc of new residential capacity was installed there

19 Residential Third-Party Ownership Third-party owned market share broke 90% in Arizona and neared 90% in Colorado TPO market share fell in California in Q4 2012, but this doesn t mean fewer systems were financed. Debt products are becoming increasingly prevalent in mature state markets.

20 Residential Market Forecast by State California will remain the largest residential market in the next four years even as the state s primary rebate, the CSI, comes to a close. Arizona will also continue to grow despite the likelihood that incentives will be exhausted in 2013 New York and Texas will become increasingly important in the out years

21 Non-Residential Installations by State New Jersey was the largest non-residential market in 2011, and while new capacity increased in 2012, installations rates fell throughout the year. California was the leading non-residential market, with 307 MWdc of new capacity installed in 2012, driven by municipal installations. Massachusetts grew substantially in 2012, though growth is expected to slow in 2013 due to SREC oversupply.

22 Non-Residential Forecasts by State The non-residential market will experience slowed growth in 2013, but will continue to comprise an increasingly significant portion of all U.S. installations, especially in the out years California will remain the largest market in 2013 while New Jersey suffers from SREC oversupply; Massachusetts and New York will account for an increasing share of the market in the near term.

23 Completed Utility Installations Utility installations accounted for 1,782 MWdc of new generating capacity in 2012, with 874 MWdc coming online in Q Unlike commercial and residential markets, quarterly installations are not as telling about the strength of the market; one or two large projects can significantly alter quarter-over-quarter growth rates

24 Largest Operating Utility Installations Of the ten largest operating utility PV installations in the U.S., eight came online in 2012: Project Name Developer Capacity (MWdc) State Offtaker Online Agua Caliente: Phase I-IV First Solar AZ Pacific Gas & Electric 2012 Mesquite Solar I: Phase 1-3 Sempra Generation AZ Pacific Gas & Electric 2012 California Valley Solar Ranch: Phase I & II SunPower CA Pacific Gas & Electric 2012 Sempra Copper Mountain II: Phase 1 Sempra Generation NV Pacific Gas & Electric 2012 SPS Alpaugh GCL Solar Energy 65.0 CA Pacific Gas & Electric 2012 Silver State North Solar Project First Solar 60.0 NV Enbridge 2012 Sempra Copper Mountain I: Phase 1 & 2 Sempra Generation 55.2 NV Pacific Gas & Electric 2010 San Luis Valley Solar Ranch Iberdrola 38.0 CO Xcel Energy - Colorado 2011 SMUD FiT McKenzie Recurrent Energy 37.9 CA SMUD 2012 The Long Island Solar Farm BP Solar 37.0 NY LIPA 2011

25 U.S. Utility Pipeline Currently, more than 3,000 MWdc of utility PV is operating in the U.S. Of the 10.5 GW worth of PV projects with signed offtake agreements, 3,400 MWdc is under construction, most of which will come on-line in 2013 and There are nearly 25 GW worth of announced projects that have yet to secure a power offtaker.

26 Installed Prices Pricing by Market Segment Pricing by Project Size On the whole, installed prices fell steadily in 2012 across all market segments. However, a trend of price stabilization was witnessed in Q4 2012, particularly among larger projects. This coincided with a slowdown in module price declines.

27 U.S. PV Market Forecast The U.S. market is set to grow in 2013, to nearly 4.3 GW The utility PV market will continue to account for the most new capacity installed. Development of new projects has slowed, but effects of this will not be felt until the out years. Residential will continue its steady growth, particularly in states where retail rate parity has been reached. Growth will slow in the non-residential market, due primarily to a weak New Jersey market.

28 Manufacturing With the exception of polysilicon, PV equipment manufacturing continued to fall in 2012 to a point that is now lower than in Increased global competition and steady price declines have forced consolidation in the upstream industry around the world.

29 PV Component Pricing Prices fell at all points of the PV manufacturing value chain, which ultimately saw the average price for modules come to rest at just less than $0.70/Wdc in Q

30 Inverter Production Rises While the manufacturing of PV modules and related components has been a steady decline, U.S. inverter manufacturers continued to increase production and shipments throughout 2012.

31 CSP Set for Growth in 2013

32 Thank You & Contact Info Justin Baca, Director of Research Contact: Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst Contact: For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight Q report, please visit or Justin Freedman