Operational Opportunities to Minimize Renewables Curtailments

Transcription

1 Operational Opportunities to Minimize Renewables Curtailments Clyde Loutan Principal, Renewable Energy Integration July 24, CAISO - Public Page 1

2 Agenda Background Real-time control performance standards Operational observations Potential solutions & opportunities Questions & next steps 2017 CAISO - Public Page 2

3 ISO Resource Mix - Good progress toward State's RPS goals 2017 CAISO - Public Page 3

4 Power industry transformation Wind Unpredictable Output 4,985 MW Peak May 16, ,000 MW Installed Capacity Solar Thermal / Photo Voltaic Semi Predictable Output 9,914 MW Peak June 17, ,000 MW Installed Capacity * Solar & wind served 58.7% of load on 2:55 p.m. Roof Top Solar Semi Predictable Output Behind the meter Residential 5,000+ MW Estimated Capacity Main Drivers: California RPS GHG reduction Once-through-Cooled plants retirement Goals: Higher expectation of reliability Higher expectation of security Smart Grid Situational awareness through Visualization 2017 CAISO - Public Page 4

5 Approximately 4,000 MW of additional transmissionconnected renewables by 2020 and an additional 10,000 to 15,000 MW by ,000 Renewable Capacity (MW) 36,000 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 Biofuel Small Hydro Solar PV Renewables ( ) Geothermal Wind Solar Thermal 8,000 4, YTD* CAISO - Public Page 5

6 Expected behind-the-meter solar PV build-out through 2020 The ISO has no real-time telemetry for behind-the-meter solar PV, but these resources impact control performance 2017 CAISO - Public Page 6

7 Actual net-load and 3-hour ramps are about four years ahead of ISO s original estimate Typical Spring Day Steeper Ramps Deeper Belly Actual 3-hour ramp of 12,960 MW on December 18, 2016 Net Load of 8,493 MW on May 14, CAISO - Public Page 7

8 Solar production varies from one day to the next --- one week of March ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 MW 5,000 4,000 Average 3,000 2,000 1, :00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average 2017 CAISO - Public Page 8

9 Wind production varies from one day to the next --- one week of March ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Average 1, Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average 2017 CAISO - Public Page 9

10 Net Load varies from one day to the next --- one week of March ,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average 2017 CAISO - Public Page 10

11 Actual monthly 1-hour upward ramp could be about 50% of the 3-hour upward ramps for 2016 Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Upward Monthly Ramps ,000 12,000 10,000 MW 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Act. 1Hr_Up_Ramp 4,144 4,929 4,260 3,870 3,585 3,265 2,688 3,118 4,453 4,889 5,512 5,676 Act. 3Hr_Up_Ramp 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 8,411 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12, CAISO - Public Page 11

12 Actual monthly 1-hour and 3-hour downward ramps for 2016 were greater than during the summer months Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Downward Monthly Ramps ,000-4,000 MW -6,000-8,000-10,000-12,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Act. 3Hr_Dn_Ramp -6,899-7,681-7,365-7,677-8,382-10,63-10,83-10,95-10,31-7,327-7,705-8,028 Act 1Hr_Dn_Ramp -3,355-3,917-3,537-3,774-3,387-4,070-4,265-4,089-3,915-4,035-5,274-4, CAISO - Public Page 12

13 Expected monthly 3-hour upward ramps for 2017 through ,000 Monthly 3-Hour Upward Ramps 16,000 14,000 12,000 MW 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 (Actual) 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 9,263 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12, ,342 12,465 11,253 9,973 10,878 8,996 8,379 8,768 11,575 11,900 12,391 14, ,282 13,313 12,352 11,111 11,803 10,039 9,326 9,617 12,660 12,954 13,376 14, ,595 14,543 13,574 12,672 12,631 11,350 10,616 10,982 13,981 14,199 14,553 15, ,439 15,984 15,089 14,572 13,859 13,181 12,391 12,821 16,061 16,169 16,293 16, CAISO - Public Page 13

14 Control Performance Standards & Operational Observations 2017 CAISO - Public Page 14

15 The assessment of a Balancing Authority control performance is based on the following components Balancing Authority Ace Limit (BAAL) - is a real-time measure of area control error and system frequency which cannot exceed predefined limits for more than 30-minutes Control Performance Standard (CPS1) - measures how well a BA s ACE performs in conjunction with the frequency error of the Interconnection Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) - is the responsibility of a BA to recover its ACE to zero if its ACE just prior to the disturbance was greater than zero or to its pre-disturbance level if ACE was less than zero within 15 minutes Frequency Response BAAL Limit 30 minutes CPS1 Pass 100% over rolling 12 months DCS = 100% All BAs to support the interconnection frequency within 52 seconds following a disturbance greater than 500 MW anywhere within the interconnection 2017 CAISO - Public Page 15

16 Balancing Authority ACE Limits (BAAL) cannot be exceeded for more than 30 consecutive minutes BAAL Exceedance (minutes) /19/ BAAL is designed to replace CPS Control opposes frequency deviation BAAL relaxes area regulation needs ACE is allowed to be outside BAAL for up to 30 minutes ACE (MW) Frequency (Hz) Operating Statistics indicate we are driving system to high Frequency and high ACE NERC_ACE BAALLow BAALHigh CPS1Bounds CPS1Bounds 2017 CAISO - Public Page 16

17 Operational Statistics for January through March 2017 CAISO's ACE Distribution January through March 2017 System Frequency Distribution January through March ,000 16,000 18,000 14,000 16,000 12,000 Occurrences 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Occurrences 10,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2, ACE (MW) The Western Interconnection implemented 23 fast manual time error correction from January through March 2017 and no manual slow time error correction Fast manual time error correction requires the Western Interconnection to operate at a scheduled frequency of Hz instead 60 Hz During the hours when fast manual time error correction takes place, the system frequency is.02hz closer to the relay settings of the first block of under-frequency load shedding 2017 CAISO - Public Page 17

18 ISO tracks real-time supply and demand balance as a measure of operational effectiveness Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load /31/ % 200% ISO supports the Western Grid when the blue bars are above 100% (green line) Performance Target 26,000 24,000 0% Hourly CPS1 (%) -200% -400% ISO leans on other BAs when the red bars are less than 100% 22,000 20,000 Net Load (MW) -600% 18, % -1000% ,000 CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load 2017 CAISO - Public Page 18

19 Intra-hour variability and uncertainty could result in inability to control the interconnection frequency in real-time 3,500 Wind/Solar vs. CPS /31/ % 3, % Wind/Solar (MW) 2,500 2,000 1,500 0% -200% -400% Hourly CPS1 (%) 1, % % % CPS1<100% CPS1>=100% Wind Solar CPS1 (Pass) CPS1 is evaluated on a rolling 12-month average. Over the past few years, the rolling average has been declining as a result of some poor daily performances. Thus, the CAISO needs to take measures to improve daily performance on days with higher variability CAISO - Public Page 19

20 Load, net-load and solar ramps during sunrise and sunset for March 6, 2017 (Weekday) Load & Net Load (MW) 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load ---March 6, ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Wind & Solar (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%) 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load /06/ ,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Net Load (MW) Load Net_Load Wind Solar CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load Sunrise Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 7:00 10:00 Load Solar Net Load MW Change -1,023 5,529-6,724 Sunset Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 16:00 19: MW Change 4,801-6,703 11,049 ACE (MW) ACE vs. Frequency --- March 6, Frequency (Hz) ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency 2017 CAISO - Public Page 20

21 Load, net-load and solar ramps during sunrise and sunset for March 26, 2017 (Weekend) Load & Net Load (MW) 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load --- March 26, ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Wind & Solar (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%) 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% -300% -400% -500% Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load /26/ ,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Net Load (MW) Load Net_Load Wind Solar CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load Load Solar Net Load ACE vs. Frequency --- March 26, 2017 Sunrise Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 7:00 10: MW Change 1,612 7,947-5,489 Sunset Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 16:00 19: ACE (MW) Frequency (Hz) MW Change 2,908-6,575 9, ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency 2017 CAISO - Public Page 21

22 ACE * Delta Frequency vs. solar production for January through March ACE * Delta Frequency --- January through March 2017 CAISO Leans on the Interconnection 7,000 6, ,000 4, CAISO Supports the Interconnection Frequency 3,000 2,000 1, Average of ACE*del_freq ACE*Delta_Freq_limit Solar CAISO - Public Page 22

23 Hourly CPS1 for January through April % 180% 160% January, CPS1 (116.9%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production 30,000 28,000 26, % 160% 140% February, CPS1 (107.8%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production 28,000 26,000 24,000 CPS1 (%) 140% 120% 100% 80% 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%) 120% 100% 80% 60% 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 Net Load (MW) 60% 16,000 40% 14,000 40% 14,000 20% 12,000 20% 0% ,000 10,000 0% CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 10,000 CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 200% March, CPS1 (112.3%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production 28, % April, CPS1 (115.4%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production 26,000 CPS1 (%) 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%) 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% ,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Net Load (MW) 0% CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 10,000-50% 10,000 CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 2017 CAISO - Public Page 23

24 Potential Solutions & Opportunities 2017 CAISO - Public Page 24

25 A suite of solutions are necessary to maintain reliability Storage increase the effective participation by energy storage resources. Western EIM expansion expand the western Energy Imbalance Market. Demand response enhance DR initiatives to enable adjustments in consumer demand, both up and down, when warranted by grid conditions. Regional coordination offers more diversified set of clean energy resources through a cost effective and reliable regional market. Time-of-use rates implement time-of-use rates that match consumption with efficient use of clean energy supplies. Electric vehicles incorporate electric vehicle charging systems that are responsive to changing grid conditions. Minimum generation explore policies to reduce minimum operating levels for existing generators, thus making room for more renewable production. Flexible resources invest in modern, fast-responding resources that can follow sudden increases and decreases in demand. Dispatchable VER VERS with active power management capability can participate in the ISO s markets for energy and Ancillary Services CAISO - Public Page 25

26 Certified generation fleet ramp rate per minute 12,000 Certified Capacity of the CAISO's Generation Fleet by Ramp Rate ,000 8,000 MW 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 CCYC GTUR HYDR OTHR PHOT PTUR RECP STUR WIND RR<5 5 RR<10 10 RR<20 20 RR 2017 CAISO - Public Page 26

27 Renewables and imports can provide more real-time flexibility via bids Source: DMM 2016 Annual Report 2017 CAISO - Public Page 27

28 Can variable energy resources provide essential reliability services to reliably operate the grid? NERC has identified three essential reliability services to reliably integrate higher levels of renewable resources Frequency control Voltage control Active power management such as ramping capability or flexible capacity ISO has demonstrated how advancement in smart inverter technology allows VERs to provide services similar to conventional resources Need to leverage VER resource s operating characteristics to decarbonize the grid 2017 CAISO - Public Page 28

29 The CAISO would like to start a conversation on how renewable resources can support control performance Active power controls: When resourced dispatched they ramp at expected ramp-rate During sunrise or wind upward ramps resources ramp at maximum ramp-rate Enable and Incentivize VER resources to provide: Frequency response Regulation Flex ramp Voltage support 2017 CAISO - Public Page 29

30 Appendix 2017 CAISO - Public Page 30

31 Increased occurrences of negative prices during the middle of the day # of Occurrences RTD Prices < Zero Distribution of Negative Prices - March, April & May 2012 through 2017 Increasing real-time negative energy price frequency indicates overgeneration risk in the middle of the day CAISO - Public Page 31

32 Renewable curtailment in 2024 at 40% RPS is significant 2017 CAISO - Public Page 32

33 2017 CAISO - Public Page 33

34 Next steps Request stakeholders to submit written comments by close of business August 7 Comments template available at: BasedGenerationIssuesWorkshop.docx Submit to comments mailbox: initiativecomments@caiso.com Thank you! 2017 CAISO - Public Page 34