Silver Usage in the Photovoltaic Business - Electrifying Demand Heraeus Andy London PV TECHNOLOGY SHARES 2010E. Kc b-ph-pvtech10.
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1 Silver Usage in the Photovoltaic Business Electrifying Demand Andy London, Global Manager Photovoltaic Business Unit Page 1 PV TECHNOLOGY SHARES 2010E CdTe 6% Si-TF 8% Thin Film 17% Standard Crystalline Silicon 78% CIGS 2% Others < 1% IBC 3% HIT 2% SR 1% Non-Standard c-si 5% Kc b-ph-pvtech10 24 GWp TOTAL: 21GWp (est.) Page 2 1
2 FRONT SIDE SILVER PATTERN Page 3 Cross Section of Ag film Page 4 2
3 BACK SIDE SILVER BUS BARS Page 5 Why Silver? 1: Ag directly contacts Si without poisoning the junction Ni cannot contact Si without annealing to form 2nd phase. Cu is possible, but will damage the junction. 2: Ag has the best conductivity Cu is the closest 2nd, provided it remains in pure metal phase. 3: Ag has the best solderability Cu is the close one, if no oxidation. 4: High reliability under severe environment. Page 6 3
4 Other Comments about Silver 1: Well known powder technology 2: Good Aesthetics 3: Relatively stable price No longer applicable Page 7 Page 8 4
5 Silver Usage Forecast 2010 Prior to the run up of Ag price Page 9 New Silver Usage Forecast Page 10 5
6 Silver Usage grams/wp Forecast Optimistic Realistic Pesimistic Base Assumption from 2010: Front side = 0.065g/Wp Back Side = 0.042g/Wp Page 11 Policy in Major European PV Markets Country Growth Germany Italy Czech Republic France Spain Comments Subsidy reductions in 2011 and Est. 3-5 GWp/yr to Reduction in FiT rates every 4 months in 2011, but still generous rates. Target 3.3 GWp to Reducing FiT rates and terminating subsidies for mediumand large- size systems. Proposed 4.5.MWp annual cap on new systems. Strong proponent of Nuclear Power. Surpassed 2010 PV Goal. Formulating plans to limit growth. 1 GWp growth in 2011 and Government plans to reduce solar power subsidies in order to help move Country out of the red. In 2011, with the exception of Italy, the major European PV markets are facing recessions following significant downward adjustments of their solar subsidies. Source: Digitimes Research: Special report, 2011 Global PV market.2011, May 18, 2011 Page 12 6
7 N e-geo Policy in Other Major PV Markets Country Growth Japan China India Australia United States Comments Reduction in subsidies to manage growth. Expected demand in 2011 to grow to 1.6GWp and double to 3.2GWp in No single uniform subsidy program. Incentives have generated growth. Installation Forecast: 1GWp in 2011; 5GWp by 2015; 20GWp by Government has the following Solar Targets. Phase 1: 1.3GWp by 3/2013; Phase 2: 5GWp by 3/2015; Phase 3: 22GWp by 2022 Government to use 3 incentive programs to increase renewable energy from 8% to 20% of its energy portfolio by Growth from 0.2GWp in 2010 to 1.0GWp in 2012 is expected. Numerous and complex subsidy programs. But incentive for large power plants will increase demand from 1GWp in 2011 to 2GWp in PV markets of India, the US, Canada, Australia and other counties have a great deal of growth momentum/potential to offset weakening European Demand. Source: Digitimes Research: Special report, 2011 Global PV market.2011, May 18, 2011 Page 13 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS 2009E S. Korea 2% Czech Republic 2% Spain 2% China 2% Greece 2% Other 6% Germany 47% Europe = 75% France 5% Benelux 5% Italy 9% US 9% Japan 9% To TOTAL: be revised 6.4GWp in (Preliminary) Q Page 14 7
8 Page 15 Cell Conversion Costs EUR/US/JP vs. Low Cost US$0.40 US$0.35 US$0.30 US$0.25 US$0.20 US$0.15 US$0.10 US$0.05 US$0.00 $0.36 $0.24 $0.33 $0.23 $0.31 $0.22 $0.30 $0.21 $0.28 $0.20 $0.26 $ E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E EUR/US/JP Low-Cost Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: by GTM Research Page 16 8
9 C-Si Solar Cell Capacity - GWp GWp Production Capacity JA Solar Suntech Trina Solar Motech - Taiwan Neo Soloar (NSP) - Taiwan Yingli Gintech - Taiwan Hareon Solar Jinko Solar Hanwha SolarOne Canadian Solar LDK Solar Q-Cells - Germany Eging PV Tiawei Solartech Energy - Taiwan Global c-si Solar Cell Manufacturers whose Capacity will Exceed 1 GW in Capacity EOY 2010 Capacity EOY 2011 Source: Global PV Market, 2011 by DIGITIMES Research Page 17 Global c-si Solar Cell Production Capacity Europe US Japan Other Asia Taiwan China 0 Q Q Q By the end of the 4 th Quarter in 2011, Asia will account for 89% of Worldwide cell production capacity. Source: Global PV Market, 2011 by DIGITIMES Research 9
10 Global c-si Solar Cell Production Capacity: 60.6 GWp Total China % Taiwan % Europe 5.0 8% US 1.6 3% Japan 2.8 4% By the end of the 4 th Quarter in 2011, Asia will account for 89% of Worldwide cell production capacity. Other Asia 2.8 5% Source: Global PV Market, 2011 by DIGITIMES Research Conclusions 1: Cellular business will continue double digit growth 2: Ag is the metal of choice BUT is under pressure 3: The US and China will pass Germany as #1 installer soon 3: Metal usage will drop per watt Unless Ag price is greatly reduced Page 20 10
11 THANK YOU Page 21 11
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