EBRD Sustainable Energy Finance Facilities

Transcription

1 EBRD Sustainable Energy Finance Facilities London, 20 th June 2011 Michael Liebreich Chief Executive MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

2 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. EBRD Countries 2

3 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. EBRD Countries 3

4 DEEPWATER HORIZON 4

5 NORTH AFRICA & THE GULF Source: AFP 5

6 FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI 6

7 PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNED TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY BY SOURCE, JAPAN, (TWh) LNG Nuclear Coal Hydro Petroleum New energy Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Electricity Supply Plan of 2010, 31 March

8 EUROPE Source: AP 8

9 COST OF DEBT, TYPICAL EUROPEAN ONSHORE WIND FARM 7% 6% 5% Project spread 4% 3% 2% 1% Credit insurance Term swap 6M Euribor ECB rate 0% Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Note: Data as of 01 June 2011; term swap: eight-year euro swap rate. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9

10 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. EBRD Countries 10

11 GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 30% $243bn 19% $180bn 4% $186bn 34% $151bn 48% $113bn 48% $76bn $52bn Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for reinvested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11

12 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) Four quarter running average Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12

13 CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, ($BN) Fossil fuel Clean energy Note: Investment for new build fossil fuel calculated from EIA & IEA numbers, clean energy taken from Bloomberg New Energy Finance totals. Clean energy capacity includes small distributed capacity. Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13

14 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY STIMULUS SPENDING BY YEAR, ($BN) Global total = $193.9bn % 68 35% Spent = $94.8bn, 49% Unspent = $99.1bn, 51% 0.0 0% % % 9.7 5% e 2012e 2013e Note: according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance expectations Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14

15 DEVELOPMENT BANK FINANCING OF CLEAN ENERGY PROJECTS: ($BN) Other China Development Bank Asian Development Bank KfW EIB BNDES Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, development banks 15

16 DRIVERS OF INVESTMENT GROWTH, ($BN) EUROPEAN ROOFTOP SOLAR +120% CHINA +30% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 16

17 ASSET FINANCE FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY TOP 15 COUNTRIES, 2010 ($BN) China United States Brazil Germany Italy Spain Canada India Belgium Mexico United Kingdom Australia Portugal Pakistan Poland ASOC AMER EMEA Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 17

18 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. EBRD Countries 18

19 GLOBAL ENERGY & EMISSION-RELATED POLICIES, Total: Energy efficiency Renewable energy Climate change Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 19

20 SELECTED POLICY BALANCE SHEET, NEGATIVES Regulatory pushback over smart grid programs in US No US climate or energy bill US midterms Retrospective changes to tariff regimes in Czech Republic & Spain Tariff reductions in other EU countries POSITIVES Brazilian wind tenders Italy tariffs remain in place Unexpected success of Cancun Indian Solar Mission programme CA victory over Proposition 23 EU funding progress on CCS UK confirms Climate Bill / Green Bank 20

21 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Note: Values as of 27 May 2011; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 21

22 DURBAN 22

23 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. Spain 23

24 THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve MW (log) Chinese c-si module prices First Solar thin-film module cost Thin-film experience curve Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FSLR filings 24

25 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY 0.70 $/kwh 0.60 More sun Residential power market GW 0.40 Denmark Hawaii 50GW Netherlands Germany UK Slovakia Japan US excl. CA Italy France South Korea China Turkey Portugal Spain Greece CA South Africa 2010 LCOE 2015 LCOE ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Average residential power price kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. CA is California. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 25

26 LEVELIZED COSTS: BEST NEW WIND VS NEW COAL ($/MWh) Perception: Wind 120 New coal must cover cost of capital Coal 30 New coal requires advanced pollution control Reality: Wind Coal Wind turbines back to 2005 prices, but now perform much better Wind bankability has driven down cost of capital Coal suffers from carbon price risk Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 26

27 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PACK COST, TRACTION BATTERY PRODUCTION, Annual production (GWh) 350 Total pack cost ($/kwh) 1, , Total capacity of batteries manufactured per year (GWh) Note: Total pack cost includes the battery management system Total cost of pack ($/kwh) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 27

28 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 5. EBRD Countries 28

29 TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION ($BN) EMEA AMER ASOC Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29

30 WIND-GENERATING CAPACITY NET ADDITIONS (GW) Asia & Oceania GW Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 30

31 TOP 10 GLOBAL WIND MANUFACTURERS 2005, 2010 (RANK ORDER BY PRODUCTION) % per year 2010 Company Country Production (GW) 1. Vestas Denmark 3.2 Company Country Production (GW) 1. Vestas Denmark Enercon Germany GE Wind US Gamesa Spain GE Wind US Siemens Denmark Suzlon India Repower Germany Goldwind China Nordex Germany Ecotecnica Spain Sinovel China Gamesa Spain Goldwind China Suzlon India Enercon Germany Dongfang China Repower Germany Siemens Denmark 2.9 Europe US China Other Asia Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 31

32 SOLAR MANUFACTURING CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) Asia & Oceania GW Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32

33 TOP 10 GLOBAL PV CELL MANUFACTURERS 2006, 2010 (RANK ORDER BY CAPACITY) % per year 2010 Company Country Capacity (MW) Sharp Japan 500 Q-Cells Germany 420 Suntech China 270 Motech Taiwan 240 Solarworld Germany 200 China Sunergy China 180 Kyocera Japan 180 Isofoton Spain 130 Schott Germany 121 Sanyo Electric Japan 115 Company Country Capacity (MW) JA Solar China 1,900 Suntech China 1,620 First Solar (TF) US 1,502 Yingli China 1,100 Trina Solar China 1,000 Q-Cells Germany 1,000 Canadian Solar China 800 Motech Taiwan 600 Gintech Taiwan 600 JinkoSolar China 600 Europe US China Other Asia Note: Capacity counted as either crystalline silicon cell or thin film module. TF is thin film Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company announcements 33

34 AGENDA 1. Background 2. Investment activity 3. Policy 4. Cost trends 5. Regional Rivalry 6. EBRD Countries 34

35 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY: EBRD COUNTRIES, 2010 ($M) Poland 1,542 Turkey 1,203 Bulgaria 561 Romania Hungary Croatia Lithuania Belarus Ukraine Azerbaijan 6 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35

36 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY: EBRD COUNTRIES, ($BN) Four quarter running average Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 36

37 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY: EBRD COUNTRIES AS % TOTAL, ($BN) 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% 7% 3% 3% 2% 3% 5% 2% 1% 0.2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% Other regions EBRD Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37

38 ASSET FINANCE FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY ASSETS: TOP 15 COUNTRIES, 2010 ($BN) China 47.3 United States 20.7 Brazil Germany Italy Spain Canada India Belgium Mexico United Kingdom Australia Portugal Pakistan Poland Wind Solar Other renewables Biofuels Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. EBRD country Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 38

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