BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT

Transcription

1 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT DAY 2 KEYNOTE Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Twitter: MLiebreich 5 TH APRIL 2011 MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

2 GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 30% $243bn 19% $180bn 4% $186bn 34% $151bn 48% $113bn 48% $76bn $52bn Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for reinvested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

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4 DRIVERS OF INVESTMENT GROWTH, ($BN) EUROPEAN ROOFTOP SOLAR +120% CHINA +30% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

5 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY STIMULUS SPENDING BY YEAR, ($BN) Global total = $193.9bn % 68 35% Spent = $94.8bn, 49% Unspent = $99.1bn, 51% 0.0 0% % % 9.7 5% e 2012e 2013e Note: according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance expectations Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

6 CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, ($BN) Fossil fuel Clean energy Note: Investment for new build fossil fuel calculated from EIA & IEA numbers, clean energy taken from Bloomberg New Energy Finance totals. Clean energy capacity includes small distributed capacity. Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

7 INDUSTRY SIZE COMPARISON ($BN) Clean energy investment Clean energy generation capacity investment Fossil-based generation capacity investment Total energy sector investment Earnings of Mexican drug cartels (spending) Video games (spending) Adventure travel (spending) Global luxury goods market (spending) Global advertising (spending) Oil (spending) Of which OECD oil imports (spending) $243bn $187bn $219bn $1,200bn $40bn $46bn $89bn $234bn $640bn $3,200bn $880bn Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Facebook, Bain & Co, PWC, George Washington Business School MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

8 POLICY BALANCE SHEET, NEGATIVES Regulatory pushback over smart grid programs in US No US climate or energy bill US midterms Retrospective changes to tariff regimes in Czech Republic & Spain Tariff reductions in other EU countries POSITIVES Brazilian wind tenders Italy tariffs remain in place Unexpected success of Cancun Indian Solar Mission programme CA victory over Proposition 23 EU/UK funding progress on CCS MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

9 THREE CURRENT ISSUES 1. Cost-competitive clean energy 2. Black swans 3. Regional rivalry MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

10 THREE CURRENT ISSUES 1. Cost-competitive clean energy 2. Black swans 3. Regional rivalry MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

11 THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices experience curve MW (log) Chinese c-si module prices First Solar thin-film module cost Thin-film experience curve Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FSLR filings MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

12 FORECAST LARGE PV PROJECT CAPITAL COST, ($/W) $3.02 $2.63 $2.32 $2.11 $1.98 $1.87 $1.77 $1.68 $1.6 $1.52 $ Module Inverter Balance of plant Engineering, procurement & construction other Note: Based on historical experience curves for crystalline silicon modules and other components, and the prices in the mature German market dollars. Assumes Bloomberg New Energy Finance short-term build forecasts to 2013, 20% new build growth after that. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

13 IRR OF GULF PV PROJECTS VS OIL PRICE (%) 12% 10% Burn oil Build PV 8% 6% 4% 2% Coupon on longest Saudi bonds Saudi Arabia generates 57% of electricity from oil Replacing 5% of this per year would be a 3.3GW PV market 0% Oil Price($/barrel) Note: Assumes PV project can be built for $3.14/W, capacity factor 20%, 1% capex/year O&M and 0.7%/year degradation, all oil replaced would have been burned in a plant with a heat rate of 10.85Btu/kWh. Instead it is sold at market price which changes linearly to 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

14 ASSET FINANCING FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY ASSETS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ($BN) Other renewables Solar 1.3 Wind Note: Includes estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes North Africa. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

15 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY 0.70 $/kwh 0.60 More sun Residential power market GW 0.40 Denmark Hawaii 50GW Netherlands Germany UK Slovakia Japan US excl. CA Italy France South Korea China Turkey Portugal Spain Greece CA South Africa 2010 LCOE 2015 LCOE ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Average residential power price kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. CA is California. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

16 WIND TURBINE PRICE INDEX, (EUR M/MW) Public data BNEF WTPI WTPI excl. comm ,600 12, ,400 log(mw) Note: WTPI is wind turbine price index, WTPI excl. comm. is adjusted for commodity prices Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Extool, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

17 TURBINE PRICES BY DELIVERY DATE, (EUR m/mw) PUBLIC DATA & BNEF WIND TURBINE PRICE INDEX (WTPI) Disclosed contracts WTPI -18% H H H H H H H H H H H H Disclosed contracts H Note: Prices include towers & transport, exclude civil engineering. Extract from H Bloomberg New Energy Finance WTPI participant report covering 150 contracts over the period. H H H H H Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

18 LEVELIZED COSTS: BEST NEW WIND VS NEW COAL ($/MWh) Perception: Wind 120 New coal must cover cost of capital Coal 30 New coal requires advanced pollution control Reality: Wind Coal Wind turbines back to 2005 prices, but now perform much better Wind bankability has driven down cost of capital Coal suffers from carbon price risk Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

19 WIND TARIFFS UNDER THE TENDER OPTION IN BRAZIL AND SELECTED FEED-IN TARIFF MARKETS ($/MWh) South Africa Brazil (PROINFA) 136 Canada Slovakia China - Shandong Spain France Germany Turkey % decrease India - Gujarat Brazil (tender) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

20 THREE CURRENT ISSUES 1. Cost-competitive clean energy 2. Black swans 3. Regional rivalry MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

21 BLACK SWANS Japan earthquake & Fukushima Deepwater Horizon North Africa MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

22 PRE-EARTHQUAKE PLANNED TOTAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY BY SOURCE, JAPAN, (TWh) LNG Nuclear Coal Hydro Petroleum New energy Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Electricity Supply Plan of 2010, 31 March 2010 MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

23 DEATHS PER TWh, Official (UNSCEAR) Wind Greenpeace 1.4 Solar 4 Hydro 10 Gas Nuclear (worst case) Bioenergy Coal USA Oil Coal China Source: Lifeboat Foundation/Nextbigfuture.com; UNSCEAR; Greenpeace MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

24 Increasing governance risk ---> NUCLEAR POWER: EARTHQUAKE & GOVERNANCE RISK Saudi Libya UAE Syria Yemen Tunisia Nigeria Algeria Russia Pakistan Iran China Key: Turkey Romania Philippines Mexico S.Africa India Indonesia 100 reactors Operating USA Japan Planned Europeans + Canada Increasing earthquake risk ---> Intended Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

25 NORTH AFRICA Egypt Syria Iran Straits of Hormuz 17mbpd - 17% of world oil transport Libya Kuwait Yemen Saudi Arabia 20% of world oil reserves Source: EIA; Picture credits, AFP, Getty, various MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

26 THREE CURRENT ISSUES 1. Cost-competitive clean energy 2. Black swans 3. Regional rivalry MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

27 ASSET FINANCE FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY TOP 15 COUNTRIES, 2010 ($BN) China United States Brazil Germany Italy Spain Canada India Belgium Mexico United Kingdom Australia Portugal Pakistan Poland ASOC AMER EMEA Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

28 WIND-GENERATING CAPACITY NET ADDITIONS, (GW) Asia & Oceania GW Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

29 WIND-GENERATING CAPACITY NET ADDITIONS, (GW) Asia & Oceania Population 2009 GDP 25GW Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

30 REGIONAL RIVALRY INCREMENTAL EMISSIONS, Asia & Oceania Emissions 25GW Europe, Middle East & Af rica 0.5 Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

31 TOP 10 GLOBAL WIND MANUFACTURERS 2005, 2010 (RANK ORDER BY PRODUCTION) % per year 2010 Company Country Production (GW) 1. Vestas Denmark 3.2 Company Country Production (GW) 1. Vestas Denmark Enercon Germany GE Wind US Gamesa Spain GE Wind US Siemens Denmark Suzlon India Repower Germany Goldwind China Nordex Germany Ecotecnica Spain Sinovel China Gamesa Spain Goldwind China Suzlon India Enercon Germany Dongfang China Repower Germany Siemens Denmark 2.9 Europe US China Other Asia Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

32 SOLAR MANUFACTURING CAPACITY ADDITIONS, (GW) Asia & Oceania GW 2006 GDP Population Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

33 TOP 10 GLOBAL PV CELL MANUFACTURERS 2006, 2010 (RANK ORDER BY CAPACITY) % per year 2010 Company Country Capacity (MW) 1. Sharp Japan Q-Cells Germany Suntech China Motech Taiwan Solarworld Germany China Sunergy China Kyocera Japan Isofoton Spain Schott Germany Sanyo Electric Japan 115 Company Country Capacity (MW) 1. JA Solar China 1, Suntech China 1, First Solar (TF) US 1, Yingli China 1, Trina Solar China 1, Q-Cells Germany 1, Canadian Solar China Motech Taiwan Gintech Taiwan JinkoSolar China 600 Note: Capacity counted as either crystalline silicon cell or thin film module. TF is thin film Europe US China Other Asia Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company announcements MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

34 INTERNATIONAL PATENTS WORLDWIDE, (NUMBER OF PATENTS, INDEXED) All technology Clean energy technologies Fossil & nuclear energy Note: Three-year moving average, normalised to 1.0 in 1978 Source: UNEP-EPO-ICTSD Report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

35 SPENDING ON NET IMPORTS OF OIL & GAS (% OF GDP, IEA WEO 2010 CENTRAL SCENARIO) 8% 7% India China 6% Japan 5% 4% European Union United States 3% 2% 1% 0% Note: Based on oil price rising to $120 ($2009) by 2030 Source: IEA WEO 2010 MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

36 INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERINGS, ($BN) Asia & Oceania 2010 $10bn GDP Population Europe, Middle East & Af rica Americas Note: Includes new equity raised only Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

37 WEIGHTED MARKET CAPITALISATION BY REGION & TYPE, 2006 ($BN) Total $171.1bn 61.3 (36%) 34.6 (20%) 75.3 (44%) Equipment providers (53%) Developers (47%) AMER ASOC EMEA Note: As at H Based on estimated proportion of clean energy contribution to market capitalisations. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

38 WEIGHTED MARKET CAPITALISATION BY REGION & TYPE, 2011 ($BN) (31%) (33%) (36%) Total $581.3bn 3.4 x Equipment providers (66%) Developers (34%) Note: As at Q Based on estimated proportion of clean energy contribution to market capitalisations. AMER ASOC EMEA 3.0 x 5.5 x 2.8 x Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

39 VENTURE CAPITAL & PRIVATE EQUITY, ($BN) Asia & Oceania $10bn GDP Population Europe, Middle East & 2004 Af rica 2010 Americas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

40 INTERNATIONAL CLEAN ENERGY PATENTS, TOP 15 COUNTRIES BY NO. PATENTS Japan US Germany South Korea France UK Italy Netherlands Canada Taiwan Switzerland Denmark Spain China Austria ,508 2,391 4, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Note: Patents ordered by country of invention Source: UNEP-EPO-ICTSD Report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

41 Innovate Generate Integrate MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

42 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg New Energy Finance accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Bloomberg New Energy Finance does not consider itself to undertake Regulated Activities as defined in Section 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not registered with the Financial Services Authority of the UK. MICHAEL LIEBREICH SUMMIT KEYNOTE, 5 APRIL

43 KEYNOTE DAY 2 Michael Liebreich Twitter: MLiebreich MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Water Nuclear SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets info@bnef.com