Solar PV Market in India

Transcription

1 Solar PV Market in India Market Potentials and Business Applications for Photovoltaic in India , Berlin, Germany Timon Herzog, Sandeep Goel, GIZ / ComSolar Seite 1

2 Implemented by Challenging Energy Future Growth assumptions for 20701: 1.7 Billion population (1.2 today) 2000 kwh per capita electricity consumption (625 KWh today) 2070 no more (economic feasible) fossil fuels available 3400 TWh electrical energy required (Germany 2012: 594,5 TWh) More than tripling todays demand (~ 1000 TWh) 1 own assumptions following aggregation of different sources e.g. CIA Worldfactbook, Census data, IEA projections 28/10/2013 Seite 2

3 Implemented by Scenario for 3400 TWh non-fossil supply? Exemplary calcualation1: 1200 TWh hydroelectric, wind, biomass & large scale PV PLUS: 2200 TWh in 540 nuclear power plants (1 reactor every 11 KM on the Indian coast) OR: One 3 kwp PV rooftop system on every 4th Indian household (~1275 GWp capacity / ~ 22 GWp annually from 2013) Theoretically enough to do for the PV-Sector! 1 28/10/2013 Atul H. Chokshi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore Seite 3

4 Pictures: GIZ, DMRC I. About ComSolar II. Electricity sector in India III. Playground for rooftop solar IV. Development of solar so far V. Challenges & market requirements Seite 4

5 Commercialisation of solar energy in urban and industrial areas (ComSolar) Around 15 activities for facilitation of solar thermal and PV applications on behalf of BMU / IKI Flagship activities: pathway for project finance and implementation Policy support for rooftop solar policy advisory for MNRE, states and cities Solar thermal in process heat applications for industries Solar Air Heating in the Himalaya with Solar-Institut Jülich & SWT Stuttgart Demo projects E.g. :PV metro, Green cricket, IndiaOne Capacity building - workshops, trainings, awareness building 28/10/2013 Seite 5

6 I. About ComSolar II. Electricity sector in India III. Playground for rooftop solar IV. Development of solar so far V. Challenges & market requirements Seite 6

7 India snapshot Population: 1.2 billion (Nearly 14 times of Germany) Area: about 10 times of Germany 69% population lives in rural areas About 350 million people still depend on kerosene for lighting 3 rd largest CO 2 emitting country but with very low per capita emissions 28 states and 7 union territories with strong federal character Seite 7

8 Grid Connected Installed Capacity 228 GW 1 Thermal; 153,8 ; 68% Large Hydro; 39.6 ; 17% Nuclear; 4,8 ; 2% Renewable energy; 28.9 ; 12% Wind Power; 19,7 ; 9% Small Hydro Power ; 3,7 ; 2% Cogenerationbagasse; 2,3 ; 1% Biomass Power; 1,3 ; 0% Solar Power; 1,8 ; 1% Waste to Energy; 0,1 ; 0% Thermal comprises of 87% coal, 12% Gas and 1% diesel power Captive Generation Capacity in Industries (as on )=34, MW 1 Source: Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (As on ) 28/10/2013 Seite 8

9 Electricity demand & supply gap in India ,0% The demand and supply represents only for grid connected households. Still, 350 million people have no / not sufficient access to electricity Electrical energy in TWh ,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% * Years 0,0% Electrical energy required Electrical energy supplied Shortage (%) Source: Central Electricity Authority, Census of India /10/2013 Seite 9

10 Electricity consumption pattern Huge potential for onsite generation through solar Apart from electricity, direct diesel engine drives are commonly used for agriculture pumping applications Industry, 53% Agriculture Pumping; 18% Commercial buildings; 2% Municipalities; 2% Domestic; 24% Source: Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) 28/10/2013 Seite 10

11 Summary India s biggest challenge is to supply electricity to 1.2 billion people Majority of electricity demand in India is met by Thermal power plants Renewable Energy (excluding large hydro) constitutes about 12% of supply mix The difference between demand and supply of electricity remains between 8-10% Domestic electricity supply is the 2nd largest demand segment after industrial sector for electricity huge potential for rooftop solar 28/10/2013 Seite 11

12 Pictures: GIZ, DMRC I. About ComSolar II. Electricity sector in India III. Playground for rooftop solar IV. Development of solar so far V. Challenges & market requirements Seite 12

13 Retail electricity costs in India (Euro/kWh*) (at 85 INR/EUR) 0,17 Commercial consumers pay more to subsidize domestic and agricultural consumers (almost free electricity) Consumers are facing abrupt tariff hikes. Commonly used diesel backup power (~ 30 GW) is too expensive and polluting 0,08 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,01 Domestic *Average of tariff from four main states Commercial LT Commercial HT Industrial Agriculture Diesel Backup 28/10/2013 Seite 13

14 High solar radiation in India kwh/m kwh/m 2 Seite 14

15 Results from kwp rooftop plant at German House, New Delhi 5.52 kwp (Multi-crystalline) and 4.95 kwp (Thin film) Specific yield: 1442 kwh/kwp/year Seite 15

16 Comparison of Transmission and Distribution losses Data represents technical and commercial losses Largest problem at the distribution level 20% 24% 14% 14% 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 11% 8% 6% 7% 8% 10% Korea Japan Germany Italy Australia South Africa Source: Central Electricity Authority 28/10/2013 France China USA Canada UK Russia Brazil India World Seite 16

17 Major market opportunities Large Ground Mounted: Central/State tariff/vgf PPA revenues Medium size ground/rooftop: REC mechanism REC+PPA revenues Small/Medium size rooftop: captive consumption & NME Electricity/diesel savings Diesel abatement telecom towers Diesel savings Rural applications (not covered in this presentation) Seite 17

18 1. Large Ground Mounted Parameters State policies Central policies Policy Diverse Plant size 5-50 MW MW National solar mission (20 GW till 2022) Average determined Tariffs Euro/kWh ( INR/kWh) VGF to be determined Current capacity allocations About 2 GW 750 MW (JNNSM II. B1) Time of procurement Ongoing till Q Q3/ Domestic content requirement No Yes, on 375 MW Seite 18

19 2. Medium size ground/rooftop based on REC mechanism OA / Trader Mutually Agreed Price REC Mechanism Renewable Energy Registered projects 180 MW Electricity REC Accreditated projects 200 MW Distribution Company Obligated Entity APPC by SERC Eur Rate at Exchange Platform (Euro /REC*) 1MWh=1 REC * Price fixed only till 2017 No domestic content requirement Source: OA Open Access Consumer SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission APPC Average pooled Purchase cost Seite 19

20 3. Rooftop PV for captive supply Key drivers of the market Retail electricity more expensive everyday (partial solar parity) Unreliable conventional grid power Expensive and polluting Diesel power MNRE Capital subsidy (30%) can be available Accelerated Depreciation (80% first year) available State Governments come up with additional incentives/subsidies Net/Gross metering is being developed in many states Seite 20

21 State policies focused on rooftop Net metering FIT Bidirectional metering Monthly credits Annual settlements States: Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, West Bengal Fixed levelized tariff for 25 years Eur /kWh (INR /kWh*) Applicable upto 1 MW States: *Gujarat 28/10/2013 Seite 21

22 4. Solarizing Telecom Towers 580,000 telecom towers; 5 billion litres diesel consumption/year 3 billion Euro diesel expenditure every year Diesel Euro 0.17/kWh vs Euro 0.09/kWh* Cell sites Grid availability Description 10% >20 hrs Mainly metro cities like Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai etc. 20% hrs Most cities and towns 30% hrs Semi-urban and small urban towns 25% 8-12 hrs Mostly rural areas 15% <8 hrs Off grid Source: Telecom Authority of India Mostly parts of Bihar and some towns of Assam, NE states, UP and J&K * Without battery Seite 22

23 I. About ComSolar II. Electricity sector in India III. Playground for rooftop solar IV. Development of solar so far V. Challenges & market requirements Seite 23

24 Market developments so far.. Majority of installations are ground mounted large power plants (>2-3 MW) Share of rooftops <10% (estimation) Long term plans of 20 GW till 2022 Solar PV installed capacity in India (GWs) 0,9 1,7 1,8 0, /10/2013 Seite 24

25 SCHOTT SOLAR PREMIER SOLAR JAIN IRRIGATION BHEL SOLAR WORLD SUNNER SOLAR T-SOLAR HANWHA LDK SOLAR MIASOLE AVANCIS ABOUND SOLAR SCHUCO WEBEL SOLAR/RENESOLA EMMVEE REC GROUP DUPONT APOLLO SUNTECH WAAREE ENERGIES LANCO SOLAR TATA POWER SOLAR MOSERBAER SOLAR SOLAR FRONTIER SUNWELL VIKRAM SOLAR NEX POWER C-SUN YINGLI SOLAR JINKO SOLAR CHINT SOLAR SHARP SOLAR TRINA SOLAR CANADIAN SOLAR FIRST SOLAR Market share of Module suppliers Share of German companies 2% Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% * This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ Seite 25

26 SUNBORNE ENERGY SOLAR SEMICONDUCTOR INSOLARE ENERGY ABB MADHAV POWER CHEMTROLS SOLAR PHOTON BHEL SUNTECHNICS PREMIER SOLAR ELECTROTHERM IMMODO ENFINITY SOLAR EMMVEE SOLAR RAYS EXPERTS MAHINDRA SOLAR INDU PROJECTS CIRUS SOLAR ARIES WAAAREE WAAREE ENERGIES WIPRO ECOENERGY TATA POWER SOLAR REFEX ENERGY MEGHA ENGINEERING VIKRAM SOLAR JUWI ENERGY STERLING AND WILSON LANCO SOLAR LARSEN AND TOUBRO MOSERBAER SOLAR Market share of third party EPCs Share of German companies 6.4% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0% Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA 28/10/2013 * This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ Seite 26

27 GAMESA BOSCH FRONIUS KACO HELOFAX INGETEAM IDS REFUSOL FECON HITACHI-HIREL DELTA ELECTRONICA SANTERING ELTEK VALERE SATCON SIEMENS SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC AEG POWERONE ABB BONGFIGLIOLI SMA Market share of Inverter suppliers* Share of German companies 33.3% 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 30,00% 35,00% Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA 28/10/2013 * This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ Seite 27

28 I. About ComSolar II. Electricity sector in India III. Playground for rooftop solar IV. Development of solar so far V. Challenges & market requirements Seite 28

29 Challenges Roofs are generally occupied Ownership structure is complicated Project debt financing is still developing High interest rates (12-14%) Insecurity in terms of building planning Land procurement is a tough task No strict quality assurance Price level / expectations are very low (e.g. SECI Tender EUR 1.02 / Wp) 28/10/2013 Seite 29

30 What is required in the Indian market? Highly cost driven market nothing gets sold if it does not make economic sense Robust equipments and good quality execution considering Indian conditions Innovative products e.g. portable, plug and play systems Integration with Diesel generators/ups systems Hybrid system low grid availability Innovative economic/financial solutions 28/10/2013 Seite 30

31 Requirement for bidirectional inverters Source: PI Experts / GIZ, Comsolar Frequent load shedding requires economic solution for: Grid feeding / net metering Off-grid / Island mode Pure captive use Back-up / DG integration Seite 31

32 Thank you! ComSolar - Indo German Energy Programme Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH GIZ Office New Delhi Seite 32

33 Annexures Seite 33

34 Policy framework in India 28/10/2013 Seite 34

35 28/10/2013 company presentation 2012 Seite 35