The Development of Renewables

Transcription

1 Industrial learning by experience The Development of Renewables Collège de France Tomas Kåberger Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation Professor Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2 Global Wind power capacity GW Data från GWEC Wind power in leading countries GW China USA Germany Spain India Data GWEC, EWEA

2 Experience of Onshore Wind Turbines Electricity 7,5 m/s /MW 1% 127% 145% SWT 2,3 SWT 2, SWT 2,3 DD -113 DD 2,3 2,3 By courtesy 7 8

3 212 4 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,7 cent/kwh cent/kwh ,35 cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 1 1

4 212 4 cent/kwh ,35 cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh cent/kwh ,35 cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh cent/kwh ,35 cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh cent/kwh ,35 cent/kwh ,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 1 1

5 2 GW 4 Solar PV Capacity, Globally 18 Germany China Italy Japan US France GWp Solar PVinstallations leading 2 countries GW Data: BP statistical review, Data BP stat rev 214, IEA for 214 PV module Experience curve c /kwh Solar FIT in Germany jan jan jan jan jan 21 1 jan 29 1 jan 28 1 jan 27 1 jan 26 1 jan 25 1 jan 24 Rooftop Groud mounted

6 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 15

7 OECD joint effort to make PV competitive A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25)

8 OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh German consumers pay 4 US cent/kwh extra for PV OECD joint effort to make PV competitive German electricity consumption 1/2 of OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh German consumers pay 4 US cent/kwh extra for PV 4 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh + profit + speed cost B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) In the US, one solar roof-top is installed every 3 minutes! & &

9 In the Japan, US, one solar roof-top is is installed every 23 minutes! In Bangladesh, the Japan, US, one solar one roof-top solar rooftop installed is installed every every 23 minutes! is is minute! & & JPY/kWh Japan s solar progress Cost of solar PV rooftop electricity Average residential electricity rate Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Assumptions for cost calculations: Capacity factor: 12% cost of capital: 1,7% (38 % equity,32 % rest 2,475%) Fixed O&M is 1% of the initial capital cost Dismantling cost is 5% of the initial capital cost. Increased electricity production in China TWh Fossil Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Data: (uncertainties fossil biomass remains) 19

10 TWh German change electricity generation Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Fossil Gas Wind Solar Biomass Hydro,3 4,2 11,5 6,2,6 1,8 6,3 2 2 UK electricity generation TWh Fossil Nuclear Renewable Imports 21 Change in Japan s Electricity Generation (fiscal year) TWh Renewables Nuclear Fossil fuel Data: METI Electricity Research Statistics New net electricity generation capacity in the EU 214 GW 12 Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Geothermal Ocean Nuclear Coal Oil Fossil Gas 23 Data: EWEA 215

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15 The Development of Renewables Collège de France Tomas Kåberger Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Japan Renewable Energy Foundation 33 Disruptive innovations Solar and wind power are too expensive Intermittent power is not sufficient... Solar and wind do not fit our business model... 34

16 Die Zeit, July 3, 1993 Die Zeit, July 3, 1993 Renewable energy, such as solar, hydro or wind in the long run cannot provide more than 4% of our electricity demand. 36 Renewable energy, such as solar, hydro or wind in the long run cannot provide more than 4% of our electricity demand. 213: Renewable energy provided 25% of electricity demand in Germany. (Solar alone: 5%.) 36 Windpower in Denmark Share of total Electricity consumption % 3 % 2 % Windpower in Denmark Share of total Electricity consumption % 3 % 2 % 1 % 1 % Data from Danish Energy Agency & Energinet % Data from Danish Energy Agency & Energinet %