PV GENERATION. Richard Perez, ASRC. Recovery Long term resiliency sustainability Can we think big?

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1 PV GENERATION The Value Proposition Richard Perez, ASRC Recovery Long term resiliency sustainability Can we think big?

2 Vast resource Energy breeder R. Perez & T. Hoff.

3 renewable finite per year WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, total SOLAR 10 23,000 per year 2013 World energy use 17 TWy per year 3 11 per year OTEC 1,4 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Natural Gas 1,8 240 Petroleum 1,8 total 2050: 28 TW TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

4 renewable finite per year WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, total SOLAR 10 23,000 per year 2013 World energy use 17 TWy per year 3 11 per year OTEC 1,4 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Natural Gas 1,8 240 Petroleum 1,8 total 2050: 28 TW TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

5 renewable finite per year WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, total SOLAR 10 23,000 per year 2013 World energy use 17 TWy per year 3 11 per year OTEC 1,4 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Natural Gas 1,8 240 Petroleum 1,8 total 2050: 28 TW 3 4 per year HYDRO 1,6 TIDES per year Geothermal 1,7 0.3 per year Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

6 renewable finite per year WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, total SOLAR 10 23,000 per year 2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year 3 11 per year OTEC 1,4 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Natural Gas 1,8 310 Petroleum 1,8 total 2050: 28 TW TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

7 Vast resource Built in smart grid capability Energy breeder R. Perez et al.

8 Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak Richard Perez, ASRC

9 Heat wave A/C electrical demand peak Richard Perez, ASRC

10 100 o F 80 o F 60 o F 40 o F 20 o F Richard Perez, ASRC

11 Vast resource Built in smart grid capability Energy breeder R. Perez et al.

12 30 yr life Richard Perez, et al.

13 Vast resource Built in smart grid capability Energy breeder Industry & markets grow fast R. Perez & T. Hoff.

14 PHOTOVOLTAIC TENDENCIES - PRODUCTION -COST - EFFICIENCY R. Perez & et al.

15 PHOTOVOLTAIC TENDENCIES - PRODUCTION -COST - EFFICIENCY R. Perez & et al.

16 PHOTOVOLTAIC TENDENCIES - PRODUCTION -COST - EFFICIENCY R. Perez & et al.

17 R. Perez & et al.

18 R. Perez & et al.

19 R. Perez & et al.

20 Remuneration R. Perez & T. Hoff.

21 Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

22 VALUE cents per kwh penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation Distribution Capacity Value Loss Savings Transmission Capacity Value JOBS & TAX $$ BEYOND BUSINESS AS USUAL Load (MW) noliesradio.org NYC LOAD NYC LOAD with 1000 MW PV 10 NYC 30% Capacity Penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

23 VALUE ACCRUES TO TWO STAKEHOLDERS cents per kwh TAXPAYER/SOCIETY VALUE RAYEPAYER/UTILITY VALUE penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation 5 Distribution Capacity Value 0 Loss Savings 5 Transmission Capacity Value 10 NYC 30% Capacity Penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

24 VALUE DEPENDS ON LOCATION cents per kwh DEPENDS ON LOCATION penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation 5 Distribution Capacity Value 0 Loss Savings 5 10 NYC Upstate Transmission Capacity Value Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

25 VALUE DEPENDS ON PENETRATION cents per kwh penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation Distribution Capacity Value Loss Savings Transmission Capacity Value 10 Upstate NY 1% Capacity PV penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

26 VALUE DEPENDS ON PENETRATION cents per kwh penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation Distribution Capacity Value Loss Savings Transmission Capacity Value 10 Upstate NY 1% Capacity PV penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

27 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 20 day sample of Summer New York City electrical load R. Perez & T. Hoff.

28 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold VARIABLE LOAD GENERATION BASE LOAD GENERATION R. Perez & T. Hoff.

29 Solar Penetration:3% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

30 5% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

31 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 8% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

32 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 10% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

33 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 13% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

34 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 15% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

35 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 18% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

36 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 20% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

37 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 23% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

38 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 25% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

39 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 28% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

40 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 30% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

41 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 33% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

42 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 35% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

43 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 38% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

44 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 40% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

45 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 43% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

46 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 45% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

47 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 48% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

48 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 50% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

49 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 53% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

50 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 55% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

51 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 58% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

52 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 60% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

53 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 63% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

54 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 65% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

55 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 68% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

56 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 70% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

57 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 73% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

58 Cost of high penetration = cost of storage 75% Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold Excess PV must be stored or lost R. Perez & T. Hoff.

59 VALUE DEPENDS ON SYSTEM SPECS cents per kwh Outage recovery capability penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation herald News ABC News 5 0 Distribution Capacity Value Loss Savings AP News 5 Transmission Capacity Value 10 Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Komonews - + X Emergency LOADS loads Richard Perez & Tom Hoff X X

60 VALUE DEPENDS ON LOCATION VALUE DEPENDS ON PENETRATION VALUE DEPENDS ON SYSTEM SPECS PV REMUNERATION IT SHOULD DEPEND ON: LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS NYC 10% City real estate tax abatement 25% State tax Credit (residential) 30% Federal tax Credit $ 1.00 / Watt from NYSERDA ~ 5 yr. Accel. Depreciation (business) Net metering (15+ cents per kwh) R. Perez & et al.

61 Installations in GW Q4 12 Installed price: ( kw systems) FIT world: $2.25/W US: $3.75/W FIT FIT = 17 /kwh NYC 10% City real estate tax abatement 25% State tax Credit (residential) 30% Federal tax Credit $ 1.00 / Watt from NYSERDA ~ 5 yr. Accel. Depreciation (business) Net metering (15+ cents per kwh) R. Perez & et al.

62 ISSUES with FiT Cost based designed to make a technology cost effective i.e., the more expensive the technology the higher the FiT Many take issue with this Adjustment following cost changes are often abrupt Limited or no market controls Risk of overbuilding, non optimal deployment, boom/bust cycles which can be extreme, e.g., Spain Nick Esch Nick Esch Perez et al.

63 Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS cents per kwh Net value is a predictable function of penetration penetration cost economic development societal value environment security Market Price Supression Fuel Price Risk Mitigation 5 Distribution Capacity Value 0 Loss Savings 5 Transmission Capacity Value 10 Upstate NY 1% Capacity PV penetration Upstate NY 30% Capacity penetration Energy Value Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

64 Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

65 Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

66 Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Value based FiT SmartFiT Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

67 FINAL REMARKS: Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Not a subsidy Who should pay for the Smart FiT cents per kwh Value Transfer Mechanism Smart FiT BENEFICIARIES VALUE CREATORS Perez et al.

68 FINAL REMARKS: Introducing the SmartFiT Long term Perspective LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Not a subsidy Who should pay for the Smart FiT cents per kwh RAYEPAYER TAXPAYER Smart FiT BENEFICIARIES VALUE CREATORS Perez et al.

69 Introducing the SmartFiT LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS Precursor programs: Austin, NJ/MSEIA (proposed), Minnesota Taxpayer Value Ratepayer Value Ratepayer Value (1) Proportionately allocate Loss Savings across categories for Austin Energy. (2) Group Fuel Cost Savings, O&M Cost Savings, and Fuel Price Hedge into Energy for MSEIA. (3) Allocate Solar Penetration Cost to utility benefits for MSEIA. (4) Location is Philadelphia for MSEIA. Clean Power Research Richard Perez & Tom Hoff

70 Introducing the SmartFiT LOCATION, PENETRATION & SPECS REMUNERATION = NET VALUE Perez et al.

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