India s leapfrog to Euro VI: Reducing pollution impacts of motorisation

Transcription

1 India s leapfrog to Euro VI: Reducing pollution impacts of motorisation Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment 2018 Asia Pacific Clean Air Partnership Joint Forum Bangkok, March 20-24,

2 More cities in grip of critical level of PM10 Source: Centre for Science and Environment of CPCB air quality data submitted to Rajya Sabha for 44 cities Cities with critical level of PM10 (more than 1.5 times the standards) has increased from 60% in 2007 to 88% of all cities with more than a million population each in

3 Smaller towns are more polluted than big metros 3

4 New threat in our cities.multipollutant crisis Ozone : Comparison of 8-hr concentration, April and May, 2016 and 2017 (AQI categories) Source: CSE s analysis based on CPCB air quality data Also Carcinogens like benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are also adding to the toxic risk Source: Based on CPCB air quality data 4

5 Regional imperatives Annual PM2.5 mean Source2015, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IITM

6 Winter pollution Source: Centre for Science and Environment analysis of air quality data from Central Pollution Control Board 6

7 Pollution holidays GBD - Air pollution is top killer in India 2012 epidemiological study on children in Delhi (CPCB and CNCI): -- Every third child has reduced lung function. Sputum of Delhi s children contains four times more iron-laden macrophages indicating pulmonary hemorrhage. Journal of Indian Pediatrics 2017: Indian children growing with smaller lungs -- about 10% smaller when they become adults in India. Source: CSE

8 Sputum cytology of a taxi driver Sputum cytology of a 14-year old girl in Delhi Source: CNCI 8

9 2017: Towards action planning process Supreme Court order, December 2, 2016: Frame and implement Graded Response Action Plan. Implemented in October 17, Supreme Court order, : Frame and implement comprehensive plan action plan. This plan got notified in March 2018 Supreme Court order, 25 January, 2018: Environment Ministry to frame a national action plan March 2018: Environment Ministry proposes clean air action plan for 100 cities to cut pollution by 35%

10 Signs of change... Categorisation of PM2.5 concentration based on AQI categories and comparing 2016 and 2017 In 2016, the number of days below the 24-hr standard was 26% whereas in 2017 it was 23%. In 2017, the number of days in severe and emergency category was 5% and 6% respectively whereas in 2016 these figures were higher to 6% and 9% respectively.

11 Cleaner winter in Delhi-NCR In But still a long way to go Source: CSE s analysis of CPCB AQI data Number of days in severe category has decreased compared to previous winter except in January.

12 Complex story of vehicular pollution...

13 Explosive motorisation Source: 2016, Road Transport Yearbook, MoRTH

14 Pollution sources and ambient air quality management Source:IIT Kanpur

15 Why are vehicles a special problem?...

16 Politics of science: A new number game in town Industry says: -- Vehicles are only 20% of the problem -- Cars are 2% of the problem

17 Ambient air quality vs Exposure Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Report of Steering committee on air pollution and health related Issues, Chennai PM 2.5 emission apportionment More important to know how close we are to the pollution source, what are we inhaling, and how much time we spend close to the pollution source than what occurs generally in the air that is influenced by climate and weather. Shift from concentration management to exposure management Ambient concentrations do not always well represent human exposures, PM 2.5 exposure apportionment Ambient concentration is not a good surrogate for total air pollution risk, -- cannot indicate exposure and health outcome 17 Source: S Guttikunda SIM

18 People living close to roads are most exposed to vehicular fume Health Effect Institute: Influence of vehicular pollution maximum upto m from roadside. About 55% of Delhi s population live within this influence zone. IIT Kanpur study: Vehicles most consistent source of pollution; while most others are variable n 18

19 How much pollution we breathe while travelling? Source: Based on CSE exposure monitoring and DPCC data for ambient levels 19

20 First leapfrog in Delhi CNG 20

21 PM emissions from buses in grammes per kilometre Natural gas vehicles: Our opportunity to sidestep poor quality diesel and leapfrog Euro II diesel bus emits nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus in India. CNG Bus Emissions in PM emissions Bharat stage II Diesel Bus (500ppm max. sulfur) Bharat stage II Diesel Bus +CRT (50ppm max. sulfur) Bharat statge II CNG Bus + 3 way catalyst Source: Teri

22 Second generation CNG: Continues to give benefits Bus type CO (gm/kwh) NMHC (gm/kwh) NOx (gm/kwh) Total Particles Diesel bus Acceleration billion (or 6.45x1014) Cruise billion (or 4.46x1014) CNG bus Acceleration billion (or 2.78x1011) Cruise billion (or 4.37x1011) Euro VI (WHSC) (WHTC) billion 22

23 Second leapfrog in India Towards Euro VI 23

24 Rapid dieselisation stoked concerns Share of diesel cars sales jumped from 4% in 2000 to close to half in 2011 In popular car models the share of diesel car is 70-75% Even at a moderate and flat growth rate of 20% a year, total diesel cars in 2020 can be double the size of the total car sales today. Huge revenue loss from luxury use of diesel in cars: peaking dieselisation had cost Rs 800 in fuel excise loss from new diesel cars and close to Rs 3000 crore from all. Source: Based on market data 24

25 Diesel cars Legal license to pollute Diesel cars legally allowed to emit 3 times more NOx Several times more PM

26 High contribution of diesel cars to PM2.5 levels and cancer risk Source: IIT Kanpur Study, 2015 IIT Kanpur study: Diesel cars are 25% of the total car fleet and contribute 78% of PM2.5 from vehicles ICCT- 4 times greater cancer risk in Delhi from diesel cars compared to petrol cars; More than 280,000 avoidable cancers aused by diesel exhaust (based on emissions estimates of IIT Kanpur study) WHO: Class 1 carcinogen for link with lung cancer

27 PM (gm/km) CO2 (gm/km) Why diesel makes us climate insecure? Black carbon emissions from diesel vehicles are several times more heat trapping than CO CO2 165 CO2 emissions from the upstream diesel refining process will increase:european Commission has found lifetime pollution costs of Euro IV compliant diesel car is much higher than petrol cars Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc) Rebound Effect: Diesel fuel has higher carbon content than petrol. If more diesel is burnt encouraged by its cheaper prices and more driving, more heat-trapping CO2 will escape. Nullifies marginal greenhouse gas reduction benefit of diesel car PM 0 Petrol cars (> 1400cc) Diesel cars (< 1600cc)

28 Energy challange Diesel vehicles locking up enormous energy and carbon. Increasing average weight of car fleet. Average weight and engine size during and has increased by 6%. On an average every year, the weight and size of new vehicles is increasing at a rate of 2%. While 87% of petrol cars have engine size below 1.2 litres, 40% of diesel is 1.5 litre and the rest are more. This threatens fleet-wide fuel economy

29 Demand for fiscal measures and regulatory steps to curb dieselisation Different policy forums -- Reduce tax differential between petrol and diesel -- Fiscal strategy for clean fuel fund India can adopt direct tax incentive and one time capital subsidy Differentiated retail prices for clean and dirtier fuel may not be effective if price caps continue Even a small cess on each litre of fuel sold can help to off set costs. (Refer to Air Ambience Fund in Delhi). -- Tax on diesel cars or differentiated tax on all cars can help to off set the subsidy and revenue short fall from tax concession. A dedicated fund can be created from this revenue to cover the cost of refinery upgrade within a short time frame. -- Vehicle industry may be incentivised to move to Euro VI. It is more cost effective to design and implement the complete system in one step rather than two.

30 Tax diesel National: Kirit Parikh Committee, Chaturvedi Committee proposed higher taxes on diesel cars and decontrol of diesel prices. Petroleum Minister proposed additional tax to Finance Ministry Delhi: Air Ambience Fund from environment cess on diesel fuel: -- Road Tax on diesel cars increased in Delhi Union budget: Tax on SUVs increased -- Pricing reforms at national level Budget.

31 : Stronger action on diesel in Delhi-NCR December 16, 2015: Supreme Court bans sale of 2000 cc above diesel cars and SUVs in Delhi and NCR EPCA recommends environment pollution charge on diesel of at least 25% of the cost of vehicle to recover the extra lifetime fuel tax that Petrol cars pay Industry volunteers to pay EPC at 1% of cost of the vehicle August 12, 2016: Supreme Court imposes environment pollution charge on big diesel cars and SUVs. Decision on controlling dieselisation pending National Green Tribunal bans 10 year old diesel cars in Delhi

32 Euro IV transition 2010: Stepped introduction of Euro IV only 13 cities This limited the scope of impact 2017: Euro IV introduced nation-wide March 2017: Supreme Court directed full transition at once for all existing and new models from April 1, 2017 denied transition time Industry divided but accelerated the process

33 Dieselgate in global market build pressure Real world NOx emissions of Euro 6 vehicles in Europe British, German, French authorities have released emissions results Large number of popular diesel car models have failed to meet the official limit and are emitting 6 to 12 times higher on road in real world conditions Expectations from fuel efficient diesel cars not delivered -- black carbon emissions more warming than CO2; higher life cycle emissions of heat trapping carbon dioxide emissions; rebound effect of more driving

34 Global action on diesel cars London: Pre Euro VI cars not to be allowed inside the ultra low emissions zone in Central London. France: Euro VI diesel cars not to be included in the new category 1 colour coding scheme that classifies vehicles according to how much they pollute. French government to progressively ban diesel vehicles. Paris: To phase out pre-2011 diesel cars by the end of the decade. Madrid: To ban polluting diesel cars from the city centre from Netherlands: In 1998 the Third National Environment Policy targeted to reduce diesel chare to only 5% in Dutch registration and circulation taxes for diesel cars are close to prohibitive. Kept share of diesel cars in Netherland lower than EU average. Brazil Sales of diesel passenger cars and commercial vehicles below 1,000 kg are banned since the 1970s Beijing has banned diesel cars as a pollution control measure. China has the lowest diesel car penetration at less than 1%. China taxes do not differentiate between petrol and diesel fuel. Sri Lanka has imposed several times higher duties for diesel cars compared to petrol cars and have reduced diesel car sales.

35 India leapfrogs to Euro VI September, 2016 Notification: India skips Euro V and leapfrogs directly to Euro VI with in-compliance regulations in 2020 To narrow down gap between diesel and gasoline emissions Introduces PM number standards Real world emissions requirements etc Euro VI for two-wheelers Significant tightening of standards First ever PM norms for two-wheelers First ever separate HC and NOx norms etc Delhi to get 10 ppm sulphur fuels from April

36 Shadow of Dieselgate in India Strong demand for real world emissions monitoring ICCT-ICAT study: Real world emissions from diesel cars and SUVs alarming -- Real world NOx emissions from small diesel car - three six times the standard; but 9 to12 times the small petrol car. -- NOx emissions from petrol car are much lower about times the Euro IV standard. -- Real-world NOx emissions from diesel SUV are 4-6 times higher than the standard. Adding one diesel SUV is equal to adding 25 to 65 small petrol cars. -- Push for real world emissions testing and requisite infrastructure; Industry on board 36

37 Diesel car sales drops in Delhi Trend in passenger vehicle registrations in Delhi ( ) Source: Department of Transport, Government of Delhi

38 Source: Market sources National trend in dieselisation: Share of diesel cars declining

39 Source: Market sources Most SUVs and Big Cars are diesel (Fuel type and vehicle category Year 2017)

40 Source: Market sources Growth rate of SUVs highest (2011 to 2017)

41 Opportunity for paradigm shift to electric mobility Electric mobility programme taking shape in India Euro VI + strategy opens up opportunity for electric mobility Win-win link with public transport strategy support for bulk purchase of buses, large fleet operators, shared mobility, delivery fleet, school buses etc. Also two-wheelers Need mandate, targets along with incentive programme

42 Car bulge: Mobility transition remains an unfinished agenda 42

43 Larger agenda for clean air Need legal compliance frame work for clean air target and action plan Reduce emissions from vehicles Leapfrog emissions standards Reinvent mobility link with urban planning and design Reduce emissions from power plants Tighter control on coal based power plants Set new standards for NOx and air toxics Shift to natural gas for power insist GOI provides clean gas Reduce emissions from air polluting industry Review the challenges of industrial emissions and control measures Reduce emissions from generator sets Tighter emission standards for generator sets Siting and acoustic measures for big gen sets Energy efficiency measures to reduce electricity demand Action on open burning Monitoring and awareness campaign Road dust and construction activities Adopt dust control measures for construction industry, roads, and traffic Generate more health evidences 43

44 Thank You 44