Motor Vehicle Emissions and the Government Response

Transcription

1 Motor Vehicle Emissions and the Government Response Bruce Bertelsen Michael P. Walsh May 26, 2000 "Meeting Meeting Mexico's Air Quality Challenges" 06/19/00 1

2 Introduction Motor Vehicles Contribute to Serious Air Quality Problems Worldwide Motor Vehicle Emission Control Programs That Have Been Established Over the Past 30 Years Are Helping To Address These Problems Serious Air Quality Problems Remain Expanding the Implementation and Enforcement of Effective Programs Will Help Address Future Air Quality Problems 06/19/00 2

3 Motor Vehicle Emissions Contribute to Serious Air Quality Problems Pollutants That Cause Ground Level Ozone Carbon Monoxide Particulates Toxic Air Contaminants Greenhouse Gas Emissions 06/19/00 3

4 Change from 1970 to 1996 United States 150% 121% 104% 100% 50% 0% 29% 8% -50% -31% -38% -39% -100% -98% -73% -150% VMT Population GDP CO Lead NOx VOC PM10 SOx National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report /19/00 4

5 New Vehicle Emissions Requirements Emissions Controls Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles 2000 No Controls Engine Modifications Three Way Catalysts Tier 1/Euro 1 LEV/Euro 3 06/19/00 5

6 New Vehicle Emissions Requirements Emissions Controls Light Duty Diesel Vehicles 2000 No Controls Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 06/19/00 6

7 Leaded Gasoline Sales in 2000 World Countries 0% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% 06/19/00 7

8 Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specifications PPM US National EU 2005 Sweden Class 1 EU 2000 Danish City Bus Japan UK Germany (2003) 06/19/00 8

9 Fuel Economy of New Vehicles New Vehicle MPG 30 Light Duty Vehicles 25 Light Duty Trucks /19/00 9

10 Global Population Trends and Projections Billions Source: United Nations 06/19/00 10

11 Global Trend In Motor Vehicles Millions of Vehicles Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars /19/00 11

12 Global Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases - PPM CO2 All Other Gases CO2 Methane N2O 0 Source: IPCC Preindustrial /19/00 12

13 Ongoing Challenges for Vehicles Very Low CO, HC, NOx, PM, Toxics Very Low CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs 06/19/00 13

14 Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized( to 1990) 3 NMHC NOx CH4 CO CO N2O /19/00 14

15 Average Los Angeles Basin Cancer Risk Apportionment Approximate Risk = 1414 per Million Carbonyl 3.0% Benzene 7.0% Other 11.0% 1,3 Butadiene 8.0% Diesel PM 71.0% 06/19/00 15

16 Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America Europe European Union (EU) adopts tighter emission standards for cars, light trucks, and heavy-duty engines EU adopts sulfur limits in gasoline and diesel (50 ppm sulfur) EU agrees on "voluntary" vehicle CO 2 reduction Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic) moving towards EU 06/19/00 16

17 Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) Japan Tightened gasoline car standards for the first time since 1978 Tightened diesel car and truck standards Further tightening of standards expected in 2005 Requirement to low sulfur level in fuel expected in 2005 Major Diesel Retrofit Program in Tokyo 06/19/00 17

18 Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) China Lead phased out by 2000 Introduce Euro 1 standards for cars and light trucks in 2000 (Beijing, Shanghai 1999) Introduce Euro 1 standards for heavy trucks in 2001 (Beijing in 2000) I/M demonstration program in Shanghai 06/19/00 18

19 Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) India Lead in gasoline phased out in 2000 Cars must meet Euro 1 standards Trucks and buses must meet Euro 1 standards in 2000 Tighter motorcycle standards in /19/00 19

20 Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) The Rest of the World Tighter standards being phased in in countries such as: Taiwan Korea Philippines Australia 06/19/00 20

21 Conclusions While Significant Progress Has Been Made in Reducing Motor Vehicle Emissions Worldwide, Serious Air Quality Problems Remain Emission Control Programs to Address these Air Quality Problems Are Being Implemented Throughout the World Advances in Engine Technology, Emission Control Technology and Fuel Quality Will Play a Major Role in Addressing Air Quality Problems 06/19/00 21