Natural gas vehicles: Opportunity for public health, energy and environmental security in our region

Transcription

1 Natural gas vehicles: Opportunity for public health, energy and environmental security in our region Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment Experience sharing dialogue Department of Environment, Bangladesh and Centre for Science and Environment, India Dhaka, January 20, 2011

2 ..Why are we discussing CNG today?

3 The Delhi story

4 Same story across the country Half of the cities have critical level of PM10. NO2 rising in many cities Even medium and small sized towns and cities are witnessing phenomenal spurt in pollution as severe as or more than any mega city. PM10 NO2 Source: Estimated based on CPCB data

5 Asia s unique public health challenge The Asiawide review of existing studies show that the estimated health effects are similar to those found in the western countries. Risk in south Asia more serious. Science has yet to assess our unique risk factors: Extremely high levels of particulates and mixture of pollutants-- the problem of exposure to multiple pollutants Impact of poverty: Socio economic variables are not included in health studies to influence public policy. Poor are more susceptible Understand risk transition Double burden of disease. Modern or community risks increasing This has important implication for environmental monitoring strategies Our vulnerability expected to grow. We need strong controls at the early stages of motorisation

6 Most locations record unhealthy pollution days in Delhi Most locations in Delhi have Unhealthy levels of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2. CO level is also unhealthy for sensitive groups Ozone levels are moderately high in 5 locations

7 The vulnerable. Delhi based School of planning and Architecture ranked respiratory diseases as the second largest cause of morbidity in urban slums of Delhi. Mumbai: The National Cancer Control Programme has listed greater exposure to environmental carcinogens as one of the most important reasons for the prevalence of cancer. Department of Preventive Oncology of Tata Memorial Centre, Mumbai, found incidence of cancer in the city s slums very high. Air pollution plays a role in enhancing this risk. Bangalore: Study found increased prevalence of asthma in children of lower socio economic classes. Group I-Children from schools of heavy traffic area showed prevalence of 19.34%, Group Il-Children from heavy traffic region and low socioeconomic population had %, Group III-Children from low traffic area school had 11.15% respectively. (H Paramesh) Hyderabad: Drug off-take study conducted by S V S Medical College, found highest drug sale in Punjagutta and Abids zones that have recorded highest PM1 and PM10 levels.

8 Vehicles are a special problem. Vehicular emissions contribute to significant human exposure. Pollution concentration in our breathe is 3-4 times higher than the ambient air concentration. In densely-populated cities more than 50 60% of the population lives or works near roadside where levels are much higher. This is very serious in low income neighborhoods located close to roads. Poor have a higher prevalence of some underlying diseases related to air pollution and proximity to roadways increases the potential health effects. In three cities World Bank review found vehicles contributing an average 50% of the direct PM emissions and 70% of PM exposure. The WHO report of 2005: Epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. Some of the deadliest air toxics, also carcinogens, are related to vehicular emissions. Blamed even for killing foetus. Public transport users, walkers and cyclists are the most exposed groups most of them are also poor.

9 Highly exposed Source: Aria Technologies SA and Leosphere SA in collaboration with CPCB) Source: RITES/CRRI Air quality forecasting system for the National Capital Territory of Delhi shows extremely unhealthy levels. What about poor who live within 500 m of key roads?. Central Road research Institute survey in 2007 shows traffic volume has exceeded the designed capacity of 51 arterial roads in Delhi. This increases roadside exposure -- majority of people live within 50 m, 500 m to 1500 m from roads

10 Emerging evidences of health impacts in India Alveolar macrophage - biomarker of air pollution Control area: Sundarbans Exposed group; Kolkata taxi driver Increase in AM number Larger AM particle laden Source: CNCI CSE Poster

11 People s Manifesto On Clean Air

12 Targeting the Legislators

13 We dared to test the lung of our Chief Minister in the midst of an Auto Show in Delhi

14 Children demanded clean air from the Prime Minister

15 Nail Them November 1, 1996: CSE released Slow Murder and media reports follow November 18, 1996: The Supreme Court of India issued suo moto notice to the Delhi government to submit an action plan to control city s air pollution December 1996: Delhi government presented it s first ever action plan to the Court to combat air pollution.

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17 India was at pre-euro 0 level when the decision on CNG was taken 0.09 Diesel Car (PM norm) Indian metros today (Euro IV). But rest of the country Euro III Diesel Car (NOx norm) 0.9 Gramme per km Europe Japan USA Gramme per km EU Japan USA

18 Dhaka also took a very timely decision to move to CNG Emission Standards for New Vehicles in Bangladesh Euro 2 for Petrol / CNG Vehicles To be known as Bangladesh 2 Euro 1 for Diesel Vehicles To be known as Bangladesh 1

19 Delhi had to fight s difficult battle 1999: Diesel car campaign 1999: Diesel car campaign Indian Express, June 6, 1999: According to CARB, chronic exposure to 1 microgramme of diesel exhaust will lead to 300 additional cases of lung cancer per million people The greatest threat to our health comes from the high levels of toxic dust in Delhi s air Hindustan Times, July 4, 1999: Well aware that tiny particles from diesel exhausts kill thousands in Indian cities, MNCs are bent upon introducing diesel vehicles Times of India, September 2, 1999: Auto manufactures and environmentalists are bracing themselves for September 17 when hearing of diesel as a fuel comes up before the Supreme Court.

20 Threat of dieselisation Indian cities: Nationally, 30% of new car sales are on diesel. Nearly 65% of the Kolkata s vehicular population and nearly 99% of commercial vehicles are diesel-run Contribution of diesel fuel combustion to ambient PM2.5 can be as high as 23% in Delhi, 25% in Mumbai to an astounding 61% in Kolkata (World Bank). Dhaka Diesel related pollution PM and NOx high Largely from commercial and public transport vehicles

21 License to Pollute Diesel cars are legally allowed to emit three times more NOx than petrol cars under the Euro norms NOx norms for cars PM norms for cars One diesel car emits as much NOx as 3 to 5 petrol cars. PM is several times higher Source: MP Walsh

22 Source: MP Walsh Toxicity of diesel emissions

23 The cancer index... It is possible to quantify toxic risks from different emission sources s and capture it in a cancer index to rate emissions and fuels Cancer risk factors according to Swedish standards Cancer risk index (petrol = 100) Spark Ignition Engines Compression Ignition Engine Petrol Ethanol Methanol Methane (CNG) Diesel Agency US EPA (2002) CARB (1998) Red alert on diesel exhaust Likely human carcinogen Toxic air contaminant Particulates Benzene Alkenes Aldehydes PAC Source: Peter Ahlvik and Ake Brandberg 1999, Cancer Risk Index for Passenger Cars in India, Ecotraffic R&D AB, STockholm, Sweden HEI (1995) NIOSH (1988) Potential to cause cancer Potential occupational carcinogen IARC (1989) Probable human carcinogen WHO IPCS (1996) Probable human carcinogen

24 It is possible to clean up diesel and meet the clean benchmark. Cleaner fuels are necessary for the introduction of cleaner, more efficient vehicles with functioning emission control devices When sulfur content falls below certain levels, emissions control devices can be used 500ppm permits the use of oxidation catalysts, which can achieve up to a 30% reduction in emissions of particulate matter Sulfur levels no greater than 50ppm permit a reduction of up to 75% of particulate matter And around 10 to 15ppm permit reductions of particulate matter up to 95%

25 Breaking industry resistance with science Convoluting science...(the) threshold for the onset of the health effects has not yet been detected for particulate emissions. This means that the safe levels have not yet been identified which is totally different from stating (as EPCA has done) that there is no safe level of particulate pollution. -Major automobile manufacturer, Supreme Court affidavit, October 99 WHO clarifies This interpretation is certainly not correct. Effects occur at any concentration. There is no threshold for the onset of the effects meaning that for each concentration of particulate matter, there are already observed effects, starting from the lowest concentration of about 10 microgrammes per cubic metre and going to microgrammes per cubic metre. WHO Expert, October 99 The challenge Be on top of information to counter disinformation.

26 July 1998: Supreme Court order Government to phase out all diesel buses in Delhi; Convert to CNG; All autos in Delhi to move to CNG; Set up CNG stations and supply gas across city Advance emission norms by 5 years; Clean up the quality of fuel CNG was leapfrog option

27 CSE takes every opportunity to counter resistance and misinformation Sabotage

28 Countering disinformation CNG technology is experimental CNG causes cancer CNG buses are more expensive and will hurt the poor CNG vehicles emit more ultrafine particles There is not enough gas to meet transport demand CNG emits more greenhouse gases CNG vehicles are unsafe We confronted every myth that confounded decision makers, public and media alike

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30 The verdict April 5, 2002 > Orders of this court cannot be nullified or altered in any way by administrative order > Give priority to transport - allocate 16.1 lakh kg of CNG per day > Phase out 800 diesel buses every month. > Diesel buses to pay a penalty per bus per day

31 Natural gas vehicles: Our opportunity to sidestep poor quality diesel and leapfrog

32 First generation reforms take off with CNG in Delhi.. Delhi has fought hard to get breathing space On vehicles Introduced low sulphur fuels and petrol with 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers Moved from Euro I to Euro IV over the last decade Implemented largest ever CNG based public transport programme Capped the number of three-wheelers Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (PUC) Efforts made to divert transit traffic Set up independent fuel testing laboratories to check fuel adulteration On industry Relocated polluting units Tighter controls on power plants. No new power plants. Air quality monitoring Adopted new ambient air quality standards Expanded air quality monitoring and reporting Other sources Emissions standards for generator sets Ban on open burning of biomass

33 Delhi got cleaner air: it avoided pollution PM10 at ITO Traffic Intersection Microgramme per cubic metre PM10 trend projection pre Supreme Court directions PM10 trend March 98- Dec 05, Post Supreme Court directions

34 250 Evidence of action: Health Benefits Downward PM10 trend in some cities* have led to 13,000 less premature deaths and reduction in respiratory illness 1 PM10 in microgram/cum Delhi * * * * * Kanpur Lucknow Hyderabad Bangalore Standard for residential areas Chennai Kolkata Ahmedabad Mumbai Pune Source: Graph based on NAMP data, CPCB, 1. World Bank 2004, For a Breath of fresh Air

35 Air quality challenge in Dhaka Air Quality Management Project Department of Environment Monthly Average of PM Concentration at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban April, 2002 to July, 2006 PM10 PM µg/m 3 24 Hour Standard for PM µg/m 3 24 Hour Standard for PM April,02 June,02 August, 02 October,02 December, 02 February, 03 April, 03 June, 03 August, 03 October,03 December, 03 February, 04 April, 04 June, 04 August, 04 October, 04 December,04 February,05 April,05 June,05 August,05 October, 05 December, 05 February, 06 April, 06 June, hour average concentration of PM in micrograms per cubic meter Month Hours Average Oxides of Nitrogen at CAMS, Sangsad Bhaban Monthly Maximum, Average and Minimum NOx April, 02 June, 02 August, 02 October, 02 December, 02 February, 03 April, 03 June, 03 August, 03 October, 03 December, 03 February, 04 April, 04 June, 04 August, 04 October, 04 December, 04 February, 05 Maximum Average Minimum Annual average standard 53 ppb Month Concentration of NOx in ppb Trends in Particulate Matter in Dhaka City Source: Department of Environment, Bangladesh Trends in NOx in Dhaka City

36 Health Cost in Dhaka Incidence of diseases in slums and squatters of Dhaka city Source: Dhaka city Sate of Environment 2005

37 First generation action in Dhaka Phase out of leaded petrol in 1999 Introduction of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Introduction of unleaded gasoline from 1st July of 199 Notification of lubricant standards on 1 st January, 2001 Banning of two-stroke three wheelers from 1st January, 2003 Banning of imported reconditioned cars older than 5 years Banning of commercial trucks in Dhaka city during day time (8am -10 pm) Ban on trucks older than 25 years and buses older than 20 years from 2002 Introduction of ambient air quality standards Introduction of EURO I for new diesel and EURO II for petrol vehicles from Introduction of in use vehicle emission standards from 2005.

38 Benefits of air pollution control in Dhaka Levels of PM10 before and after removal of Baby Taxis (Phase-II) /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /31/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/2003 (m icrogram / m 3) PM10 Average Impact of Baby Taxi Ban: More than 900 premature deaths avoided and $ 25 million saved in health cost per year. With proposed national standard: : Premature mortality can be reduced by about 3300 and health cost by $474 million per year.

39 The leaders: Bangladesh way ahead in the region Market share of NGVs in total fleet in countries Source: IEA

40 Dhaka leading CNG conversion status Dhaka Source: Zia Wadud 2010,

41 Studies in Dhaka shows significant health benefits from the CNG programme Cost saving is equal to around 0.9% of GDP Climate benefits, too (USD 1.2 million! Source: Zia Wadud 2010,

42 Imperatives of CNG programme in the region -- Primary driver: Concern over very high exposure to particulate pollution -- Energy security and diversification of fuel basket -- Technology based decision necessary when conventional diesel and gasoline technologies are slow to change; emissions standards are still not fuel neutral. -- CNG is replacing poor quality diesel -- largely in buses, and other commercial vehicles. Also replacing two-stroke three-wheelers to maximise emission gains -- Court and regulatory mandates have catalysed the CNG market. -- CNG programme is linked with augmentation of public transport a winwin. -- India with its own manufacturing base found it easier to deploy a largescale programme within a short time frame -- NGV liberates from the evil clutches of fuel adulteration

43 Second generation challenge.. Imperatives of energy security and environmental goals getting stronger

44 Source: IEA Positioning the energy challenge

45 Bangladesh has an inherent advantage Source: IEA

46 Let us build on our strength Source: REGIONAL ENERGY SECURITY FOR SOUTH ASIA, USAID s South Asia Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy)

47 Fence against vulnerability Import dependence (oil) Source: REGIONAL ENERGY SECURITY FOR SOUTH ASIA, USAID s South Asia Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy)

48 Need policies to de risk the gas regime Doubts: Do we have enough gas? How should we utilise the gas? Market under stress Strengthen gas exploration programme Bangladesh: The demand would reach to 5.6 billion cubic feet by There will be a requirement of investments of over $9 billion for exploration, development and transmission network expansion by India: New Exploration and Licensing Policy of Gas from these fields beginning to flow to double the domestic supply. Need Gas utilisation policy: Sectoral priorities include gas based urea plants, gas based LPG plants, gas based power plants, city gas projects that include CNG etc April 5, 2002 Supreme Court order Attach priority to transport sector to address public health challenge. CNG in vehicles is also expected to and diesel replace 10 million tons of petrol and reduce petroleum imports by 20 per cent

49 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% India: The expansion challenge Half of our cities have critical levels of PM10. PM10 SO2 NO2 Critical High Moderate Low Nearly 86 cities can have city gas programme by A lot more by cities are potential target

50 New generation environment challenge in the region High pollution, energy guzzling and green house gases Source: CAI ASIA 2008

51 Natural gas vehicles: Our opportunity to sidestep poor quality diesel and leapfrog Euro II diesel bus emits nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus in India. PM emissions from buses in grammes per kilometre PM emissions 0.32 Bharat stage II Diesel Bus (500ppm max. sulfur) CNG Bus Emissions in Bharat stage II Diesel Bus +CRT (50ppm max. sulfur) Bharat statge II CNG Bus + 3 way catalyst Source: Teri

52 Comparative emissions of Indian diesel and CNG buses (Euro II vintage) Type of bus CO g/km HC g/km NOx g/km PM g/km Euro II diesel bus on 500 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC Euro II diesel bus on 350 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC Euro II diesel bus on 50 ppm sulphur fuel + CRT Euro II CNG bus +three way catalytic converter Source: TERI

53 Even climate benefit Evidence on tailpipe CO2 emissions from India Type of bus CO2 g/km Euro II diesel bus on 500 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC Euro II diesel bus on 350 ppm sulphur fuel + DOC Euro II diesel bus on 50 ppm sulphur fuel + CRT Euro II CNG bus +three way catalytic converter Climate mitigation has not been the primary driver of NGV programme. -- But GHG reduction potential is drawing attention now -- Globally, on well to wheel basis 25% average reduction in CO2 (e) compared to gasoline LDV is reported. In relation to diesel results are mixed and depends on type and level of technology. (IEA 2010)

54 .more climate benefit New study shows that in comparison with the warming potential of black carbon emissions from the older diesel fleet, CNG has been less warming.. -- When black carbon from diesel is not considered estimated CO2 (e) increase due to switch -- When black carbon is taken into account -- switch is carbon neutral Upto 30% reduction in CO2 (e) Source: Conor Reynolds and M Kandlikar, British Columbia 2008

55 Global benchmark for clean emissions more stringent today -- So far lax emissions standards have created opportunity for NGVs in India, ensured huge environmental gains -- As the emissions standards get more stringent in the US and Europe, diesel and NGVs close gap -- How will the future technology development play out to address the problem of both PM and NOx? Global roadmap for heavy duty PM emission standards Global roadmap for heavy duty NOx emission standards PM Heavy Duty 11 Cities India EU (ETC) Japan USA NOx Heavy Duty 11 Cities India EU (ETC) Japan USA gm/kwhr gm/kwhr

56 CNG has potential to meet the toughest norms ICCT Review: -- PM and NOx can be reduced by the order of 70% and 30% respectively when compared to conventional diesel buses without aftertreatment. Despite the differences in studies and basic test conditions, the trend is generally favorable to CNG buses fitted with some level of aftertreatment. Source: ICCT, CNG Bus Emissions Roadmap: from Euro III to Euro VI

57 Decisions on the future NGV technology approaches are critical Future roadmap must address PM, NOx and fuel efficiency challenge NGV can reduce both PM and NOx if designed appropriately. PM emissions benefits significant from all the available CNG technology options (lean burn and stoichiometric +). NOx emissions reduction potential can be widely different PM emissions (g/km) Brauschweig Orange County NOx emissions (g/km) Brauschweig Orange County g/km 0.10 g/km Euro 3 Diesel Euro 3 Diesel +OC Euro 3 Diesel +CRT Euro 3 LB CNG +OC EEV LB CNG +OC EEV LM CNG +TW/OC EEV SM CNG +TW Source: VTT Euro 3 Diesel Euro 3 Diesel +OC Euro 3 Diesel +CRT Euro 3 LB CNG +OC Source: VTT study EEV LB CNG +OC EEV LM CNG +TW/OC EEV SM CNG +TW

58 NGV industry is reporting significant reduction in emissions to meet stringent standards in the US

59 Need to set appropriate emissions and safety standards NGV technology has enormous potential to reduce emissions. NGV bus programs will require a tighter protocol to ensure adoption of technology solutions that promise significant reductions in both PM and NOx. NOx reduction potential varies depending on the technology used. Air quality regulators and the industry need to engage on this. Accelerate emissions standards roadmap or enforce Environmentally Enhanced Vehicles Emissions Standards that will enable adoption of low NOx technology options. Good emissions regulations are important at a time when industry is poised for product diversification Link stringent emissions standards with vehicles import

60 Bus fire incidents Enforcement challenge Serious design failures may surface if institutional and regulatory systems are not in place:. Delhi program encountered a number of barriers. CNG bus fire incidents. Studies revealed a number of quality issues: Examples of Technical Defects noted in OEM CNG buses: High pressure gas pipes pulled out from fittings; Short circuit in electric wiring causing sparks; Failure of PRD s burst discs; inappropriate routing of the wiring harness, had to separate the gas and electric lines, some potential causes of spark identified etc Also maintenance deficiencies Quality issues addressed under public scrutiny: EPCA initiated more technical evaluation. Recommendations for remedial measures. Established new institutional mechanism to address safety inspection. Voluntary remedial measures by the industry.. NGV programs need quality benchmark to enhance environmental gains.

61 Bus Conversions Some were very well done. Many were not... Undersized catalytic converter Too-rigid tubes w/o stress loops Unsupported fuel tubing Too-rigid tubes w/o stress loops Cylinder next to exhaust

62 Clean fuel? 2004 Survey of smoky CNG three wheelers by the Delhi transport department shows 50 per cent of the problem vehicles were four stroke engines. These include both OEM and retrofitted vehicles -- CNG buses without after treatment can have high unregulated emissions. CARB study: Oxidation catalyst could reduce formaldehyde emissions by around 95%, and 1,3 butadiene emissions below detection levels CSE

63 Set up quality systems. Incidents such as vehicle fires, component failures, and borderline emissions performance will simply not be acceptable in the future Address concern over suspected catalyst failures in the current bus fleet. Retrofitted catalysts also need to be monitored for equivalent performance Improve durability requirements for good NGV programs and in-use benefits: Bus agencies can save cost of catalyst replacements in the field Prevent design failures -- use simple Design Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (DFMEA). Determine failure modes before the design is released; catch issues not covered under type approval. Getting it right the first time involves a much lower cost than dealing with warranty and damage costs in the field

64 In-use emissions challenge Third party inspection and audit of the vehicles as well as the conversion workshop Quarterly emissions and safety inspection for buses Identification of the floating component Mandatory registration of all buses with the conversion workshops. Log book on the status of the maintenance of each bus. Recertification of the cylinders every 5 years

65 Challenge of refuelling infrastructure India to make substantial investment in grid expansion Improve system efficiency of refueling infrastructure. Delhi was initially plagued by long queues 60% of stations were daughter stations selling 15% of the gas. Need system efficiency. Design network to manage queues: Give priority to public transport vehicles. Separate fueling facilities for buses and large trucks Avoid mixing light and heavy-duty traffic Train drivers, mechanics, fueling attendants, traffic police, managers...

66 Getting the prices right Fiscal and regulatory measures for market development Delhi: Low interest rates on public transport CNG vehicles; Sales tax exemption on CNG fuel; Tax on diesel to fund clean fuel programme.. Need favourable taxation policy in deregulated market While the share of subsidised APM gas is reducing, the share of market driven natural gas is increasing. Maintain an effective price differential with conventional diesel for maximum emissions gains Link CNG programme with the public transport

67 Maximise energy efficiency gains Trend in transport fuel consumption Trend in fuel consumption by different modes of transport in India

68 Shift from small to big in India Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate. SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future. -- A 10% increase in large vehicle sales roughly result in 2 per cent drop in fleet fuel economy... Adds demand of 17,500 barrels of oil annually. (ICCT)

69 Maximise the efficiency gains Small and low powered cars are our advantage so far. How do we protect the baseline. Source: ICCT 2009

70 Potential in market to improve energy efficiency Eg from the petrol and diesel market CNG can also provide these gains

71 Guard against increase in weight in cars to reduce energy consumption Combine standards and fiscal measures China model: Tighter standards for heavier vehicles. Tax measures: Reduce tax rate on small engine ( L) from 5% to 3%; Increase tax rate on larger engine (> 4L, from 8% to 20%); Eliminate SUV prestige (SUV used to enjoy special rate of 5%) Japan: EU: Lower taxes for Fuel Efficient Vehicles: Tax reduction can be in the range of 50% to 75% for a targeted period Proposes to increase stringency of standards to discourage up-weighting L/100 km Test Wt. (kg) In China standards are tighter for heavier vehicles than Japan Source: Feng An 2006 China Phase I China Phase II Japan

72 Dhaka and Delhi facing second generation crisis NGV Market has taken roots. CNG vehicular fleet increasing considerably Peaking oil prices and lower CNG pricing has reduced vehicle operation costs More travel, more cars Refuelling demand and frequency have increased considerably Queues have come back Need mobility soluions

73 CNG crisis also a reflection of mobility crisis Build public transport and non-motorised transport to reduce dependence on cars. Need holistic approach. Link mobility management policies with vehicle technology and clean fuel policy. Bus transport can make a big difference BANGALORE: An increase in bus share from 62% to 80% saves equal to 21% of the fuel consumed in the base case. Leads to 23 per cent reduction in total vehicles and frees-up road space equivalent to taking off nearly 418,210 cars from roads. CO2 emissions can drop by 13 per cent. PM can drop by 29 per cent and NOx 6 per cent. DHAKA: An increase in bus share from 24% to 60% saves fuel equal to 15 per cent of the fuel consumed in the base case. Frees up road space equivalent to removing 78,718 cars from the roads. CO2 emissions drops by 9 per cent. PM can drop by 13 per cent and NOx less than 1 per cent. COLOMBO: A increase in bus share from 76% to 80% can save 104,720 tonnes of oil equivalent, or 3% of the fuel consumed in the baseline case. This means 5% reduction in total vehicles and freeing up of roadspace equivalent to removing 62,152 cars.

74 How do we leverage our advantage of nonmotorised transport Cities with higher walking and cycling have significantly low CO2 levels Studies show a nominal increase of walk trips by 5% can cut CO2 by at least 10% (CAI) Patna Pondicherry Nagpur Bhubaneswar Kanpur Agra Surat Bhopal Guwahati Jaipur Panaji Ahmedabad Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Pune Hyderabad Chennai CO2 em issions in tons NMT Share in per cent 10 0 CO2 emissions NMT share Source CSE

75 New opportunities Product diversification in all segments to meet the requirement of the expanding programme Gas Highways opens up new opportunities in the HDV sector Prospects of paradigm shift: Delhi experiments with CNG hybrid and H-CNG

76 The way ahead Strengthen gas exploration and import policy to secure supply Need gas utilisation policy to rationalise priority areas energy security and public health Do not trade off poor quality diesel with CNG Need gas pricing policy Strengthen gas supply infrastructure Ensure in-use inspection of CNG vehicles and regulation for conversion agencies India faces the challenge of developng the CNG market Bangladesh faces the challenge of sustaining the market Need fuel efficiency policies to reduce gas guzzling Develop institutional capacity to address regulatory and operational issues. Link public transport, non motorised transport policies and car restraint measures to reduce demand for energy in the transport sector

77 Thank You