Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs Wie ist der Stand der Wissenschaft und welche Ansätze gibt es, die Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs zu verringern?

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1 21. April 2016 Innovative Flugantriebe - Dr. Jörg Sieber 1 MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs Wie ist der Stand der Wissenschaft und welche Ansätze gibt es, die Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs zu verringern? Experte: Prof. Dr. Volker Grewe, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. BDL Forum»Klimaschutz im Luftverkehr«Berlin, 21. April

2 Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs: Wie ist der Stand der Wissenschaft und welche Ansätze gibt es, die Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs zu verringern? Robert Sausen, Volker Grewe DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen BDL-Forum: Klimaschutz im Luftverkehr Berlin, 21. April 2016

3 CO 2 equivalent emissions of EU-15 Change since Sausen & BDL data:

4 Sausen & BDL 2016 Emissions of CO 2 equivalents comprises CO 2, CH 4, NO 2, SF 6, HFCs, CFCs (without gases from the Montreal Protocol) country / sector emissions 2012 [Tg CO 2 ] tendency France 452 Germany 936 United Kingdom 579 internat. aviation 528 data: unfccc.int

5 Atmospheric effects of emissions from aviation Emissions CO 2 H 2 O NO x VOC SO 2 Particles Changes in atmospheric composition CO 2 H 2 O CH 4 O 3 Particles Clouds Contrails 5Sausen & BDL 2016 Climate forcings Direct greenhouse gases Indirect greenhouse gases Direct aerosol effect Clouds

6 Radiative forcing from aviation 2005 T surf = λ RF Total anthropogenic forcing 1.6 W/m 2 Aviation fraction: CO % Total 4.9 % 6Sausen & BDL Lee et al., 2009

7 Radiative forcing from aviation 2005, updated by recent DLR results T surf = λ RF 7Sausen & BDL recent DLR results Note: Different bases years and different emission data have been used

8 Sausen & BDL 2016 Weighing the non-co 2 effects Fixed multiplier for the CO 2 emissions? no incentive to work on the non-co 2 effects multiplier does not account for different aircraft or different flight trajectories Radiative forcing (RF)? RF is a measure of the emissions of the past Global warming potential (GWP)? used in the Kyoto Protocol to calculate CO 2 equivalents does not account for the heat capacity of the climate system problems the short-lived climate forcers AGWP Average temperature response (ATR)? accounts for both, short-lived and long-lived climate forcers provides consistent results for pulse emissions and longer emission scenarios ATR = H = 1 H H 0 T ( t) dt 0 RF spec ( t) dt

9 Sausen & BDL 2016 How can we mitigate the climate impact of aviation? Focus more on emissions: Reduction of the specific emissions Reduction of the absolute emissions Focus more on impact of emissions: Climate optimized aircraft Eco-efficient flight trajectories

10 Change of aviation RF from global changes of cruise altitude Sausen & BDL 2016 Frömming et al.,

11 Impact of unit "emissions" as function of latitude and altitude of emission RF from H 2 0 RF from contrails Sausen & BDL 2016 RF from O 3 CH 4 lifetime change Fichter,

12 Climate optimized aircraft Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C Max Mach / Max Altitude 10500m Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty Koch (2012)

13 Reducing the climate impact by changing cruise altitude and cruise speed for a fleet of A Sausen & BDL 2016 based on Dahlmann et al.,

14 Relation between direct operating costs and climate impact for two different weather situations Sausen & BDL 2016 Grewe et al.,

15 Zusätzliche Diagramme

16 Globaler Treibstoffverbrauch des Luftverkehrs und Passagierkilometer Sausen & BDL 2016 Lee et al.,

17 Radiative forcing from transport 2005 T surf = λ RF Total anthropogenic forcing 1.6 W/m 2 Indirect effects on cirrus clouds? Sausen & BDL 2016 based on Righi et al.,

18 What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Fuel emissions Sausen & BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al.,

19 What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Perform Monte-Carlo simulations: pdf of ATR Sausen & BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al.,

20 What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Perform Monte-Carlo simulations: pdf of ATR Sausen & BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al.,

21 Sausen & BDL 2016 Direct operation cost and change in average temperature response for A flights from Hong Kong to Taipei at different flight altitudes and cruise speeds Dahlmann,