Framtidsutsikter för svenska biodrivmedel och utveckling på marknaden

Transcription

1 Framtidsutsikter för svenska biodrivmedel och utveckling på marknaden Plusenergiforum Jönköping 18 oktober 2017 Tomas Ekbom Swedish Bioenergy Association

2 Swedish Bioenergy Association founded in 1980 Interest organisation for companies and private persons Almost 300 member companies producers, users, manufacturing firms, consultants and service companies etc. Our mission is to increase the use of bioenergy in an economically and environmentally optimal way.

3 BioDriv is a network under SVEBIO for organisations and companies, which wants to create a fossil free transport sector and benefit sustainable biofuels. BioDriv comprises about 60 companies and organisations with about 130 people. We work with policy makers, legislators, government and authorities to promote biofuels.

4 Biofuels have been there for 100 years The use of vegetable oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today, but such oils may become, in the course of time, as important as petroleum products of the present time. Dr. Rudolf Diesel, 1912

5 TWh 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 Swedish biofuel consumption Ethanol Biogas Biodiesel Total Road transport fuels 2016: 18.6% biofuel share 17.2 TWh biofuels >80% is imported 2,0 0, Ref. Swedish Energy Agency and Statistics Sweden, 2017

6 32 Swedish road transport fuels 2016 TWh/yr Logarithmic scale B100 = RME100 + HVO100 Ethanol = E5 + ED95 + E85 Biogas excl. natural gas In total 92.8 TWh, whereof 17.2 TWh biofuels Petrol Diesel Biodiesel B100 Ethanol Biogas Ref. Statistics Sweden, Deliveries of transport fuels for vehicles, 2017.

7 Strong change in the biofuels market Biofuel share H was 20.4% making it highest in Europe? HVO continued strong development, the biodiesel share was 26.6% and HVO capacity in refineries will increase. HVO is the largest biofuel and HVO100 is larger than all FAME, ethanol and biogas combined. Biogas is steady and the share first time above 90% but remain small. Ethanol still blended E5 and no sight of E10, high conc. ethanol steady but for E85 very uncertain while ED95 stronger. One hydrogen production plant, eight new hydrogen filling stations and >100 fuel cell cars. It is likely we will lose some biofuels, will we get some new?

8 Sustainability is key for biofuels The potential for Swedish biofuels is large, TWh (shortterm) and >50 TWh long-term (FFF state investigation). Sourcing low-grade biomass and using efficient technologies important and producing a biofuel with market acceptance.

9 Biofuel production plants in Sweden Pilot and Demo plants LTU GreenFuels in Piteå 4 t/d bio-dme and bio-methanol SEKAB in Örnsköldsvik litre/day ethanol SCA in Obbola 24 litre/day crude bioliquids RenFuel in Bäckhammar 3000 t/a crude bioliquids AGA Gas in Sandviken 550 Nm 3 /hr hydrogen Selected biofuel plants, there are e.g. additional biogas plants not shown. Commercial plants SunPine Diesel in Piteå m 3 crude tall diesel (and biocomponents for petrol) Domsjö Fabriker in Örnsködsvik m 3 ethanol Agroetanol in Norrköping m 3 ethanol Perstorp in Stenungsund m 3 RME biodiesel Göteborg Energi in Gothenburg 20 MW biomethane (Gobigas) St1 Refinery in Gothenburg (NEOT) 5000 m 3 ethanol Preemraff Gothenburg tonnes HVO (incl. SunPine diesel) Ecobränsle in Karlshamn m 3 RME biodiesel

10 Biofuel plants in development Proposed plants Domsjö Fabriker in Örnsköldsvik t biomethanol/petrol SCA in Östrand ton biofuels RenFuel in Vallvik? t/a crude bioliquids Rottneros in Rottneros t biofuels St1 and Viken in Follum m 3 ethanol Södra & Statkraft? UPM Biofuels? Neste? Colabitoil? Värmlandsmetanol? Plants in development Kaidi in Finland ton biofuels 2019 St1 with UPM in Pietarsaari m 3 ethanol 2020 St1 in Kajaani m 3 ethanol 2017 Setra in Gävle t pyrocrude 2020 St1 Refinery in Gothenburg ton biofuels 2020 Preemraff Gothenburg and Lysekil ton biofuels 2021 Södra in Mörrum 5000 t biomethanol in 2019 Perstorp in Fredrikstad t FAME in 2017 Selected plants, e.g. additional biogas plants not shown.

11 Reduction quota from 1 July 2018 Reduction 1 July Jan Jan Jan 2021 Petrol 2.6% 2.6% 4.2%? Diesel 19.3% 20.0% 21.0%? 1. Long-term instrument for blending will stabilize the market. 2. Climate reduction will be valuable favouring tall oil based HVO as well as waste oils HVO but not RME. 3. Ambition levels will be key for market development. 100% tax exemption for high conc. biofuels 1 Jan 2018 to 2020 Lowering current taxes (below) will make RME more competitive: - FAME in diesel max 7%: 1.59 SEK/liter (ca 0.15 EUR/liter) - FAME as B100 (95% RME): 0.92 SEK/liter (ca 0.08 EUR/liter) - HVO no (in principle) limit: no tax.

12 Large campaigns in EU against biomass

13 Debate is based on myths and false facts Biodiversity biofuels lead to animal extinction and steril land with monoculture Food vs Fuels biofuels lead to starvation Carbon debt biomass releases CO 2 and forest depletion Land-grabbing biofuels causes in-direct land-use change Water shortage biofuels consumes all water Cow conspiracy eating meat is worse than burning coal Biofuel conspiracy biodiesel is worse than fossil diesel

14 Current debate clouds future scenarios for fossil-free transport to 2045 Biofuels are portrayed as good or evil, what will happen to biodiesel and HVO100 now being approved for many makes? There is increased political pressure on banning diesel. Clean biofuels can solve the problem. Politicians seem fact-resistant... Implementation of ILUC-Directive from 1 July 2018 would class PFAD as co-product and with no guarantees of origin, could diminish. EU prohibits tax exemption from 2020 on crop-based, could eliminate B100 and ED95 and E85 favouring HVO100. Electric-charged vehicles are increasingly popular, now vehicles and a goal of by An electric highway has also been opened for trucks.

15 Rena biodrivmedel för rena transporter