TDB Economic Trends Research (Research & Summary for June 2012)
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1 TDB Economic Trends Research (Research & Summary for June 2012) Economic DI was 37.6, down 0.6 points from the previous month, worsening for the second consecutive month. The domestic economy has not yet seen self-sustaining recovery, and the effects of increasing public spending are beginning to run out of steam, making the domestic economy level off. < Overview of June 2012: Recovery peaked > The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0 100, 50 points is the threshold of assessment) in June 2012 stood at 37.6, down 0.6 points from a month earlier, worsening for the second consecutive month.the domestic economy has not yet seen self-sustaining recovery, and the effects of increasing public spending are beginning to run out of steam, making the domestic economy level off. < Future Outlook: Leveling off likely to be prolonged > The projected DI was down 0.7 points from June to 36.9 for "one month later," down 0.7 points to 36.9 for "three months later," and down 1.2 points to 36.4 for "six months later." Domestic demand is not resilient enough to boost the whole domestic economy, and this leveling off is likely to be prolonged. keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp By Industry: Manufacturing worsened for the third consecutive month while retail worsened for the seven consecutive month. By Size: Large and small-to-mid companies both worsened for the second consecutive month. By Region: Tohoku ranked top of the country s regions for the tenth consecutive month while worsening for the second consecutive month. Economic DI Change from prior month Jun.2011 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan.2012 Feb Economic DI Change from prior month After 1 After 3 After 6 After 1 Mar Apr May June Projected month months months year future DI Change from June.2012 *1: White columns mean an improvement, yellow-shaded columns mean the value was unchanged, and blue-shaded columns mean a decrease. *2: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model. 1
2 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2 Total Large Firms Small to Medium-sized Firms Micro Firms Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries Finance Construction Real Estate Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed Textile,Textile Products,Clothing Construction Materials,Furniture, Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products Pulp, Paper and Paper Products Publishing,Printing Manufacturing Chemical Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining General Machinery Electrical Machinery Transportation Machinery,Equipment Precision Machinery, Medical Instruments and Equipment Other Total Food,Beverages Textile,Textile Products,Clothing Construction Materials, Furniture,Ceramics, Stone and Clay Products Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books Chemical Recycled Resources Steel,Nonferrous Metals, Mining Products Machinery,Equipment Other Total
3 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2 Food,Beverages Textile,Textile Products,Clothing Drugs,Sundries Retail Furniture Electrical Household Appliances, Information Machinery and Equipment Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts Special Merchandise Various Merchandise Other Total Transportation,Warehousing Restaurants Postal,Telecommunications Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat Leasing,Rentals Lodging, Hotels Recreation Broadcasting Service Maintenance,Guarding,Testing Advertising Information Labor Dispatching Special Services Medical,Welfare,Public Health Education Other Total Other Hokkaido Tohoku Hokuriku Tokai Kinki Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu kitakanto minamikanto
4 TDB Economic Trends Research <Special Topic> Research & Summary for June 2012 Survey on Corporate Attitudes towards the Reduction of Electricity Consumption in Summer Over 60% of companies in all the regions are saving electricity. Nearly 40% have introduced or are considering energy-efficient products, such as LEDs, as part of their electricity saving efforts. Planned power outages, which were implemented in Tokyo Electric Power s service areas last summer, are to be extended to the service areas of four electricity businesses this year. This increases concerns about electricity saving due to the power shortage and its effects in summer. Teikoku Databank conducted a survey on corporate attitudes towards electricity consumption reduction in summer. The top reason for not implementing electricity saving is Due to facilities and businesses that cannot allow electricity saving. The ratio of No power shortages in the areas where we are located decreased by half compared to last year. Over 70% of companies are saving electricity, and about 20% of companies reduced electricity consumption by more than 10%. Introduction of energy-efficient products, such as LEDs, rose 6.1 points to account for nearly 40% of electricity saving efforts. 75.1% have initiated CoolBiz, up 4.9 points from a year earlier. Over 80% of companies expected to ultimately implement CoolBiz in the sum mer of
5 Appendix 1. Research Subjects(Corporations: 22,800 Valid responses:10,589,response rate:46.4%) 1.Region Hokkaido 552 Tokai 1,161 Tohoku 603 Kinki 1,767 kitakanto 651 Chugoku 618 minamikanto 3,495 Shikoku 348 Hokuriku 530 Kyushu 864 Total 10,589 2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business) Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries Finance Construction Real Estate , Retail Food,Beverages Textile,Textile Products,Clothing Drugs,Sundries Furniture Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment 38 Textile,Textile Products,Clothing 114 Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts 64 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 238 Special Merchandise 140 Pulp, Paper and Paper Products 121 Various Merchandise 50 Publishing,Printing 200 Others 6 Manufacturing Chemical 404 Transportation,Warehousing 402 3,223 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining 521 Restaurants 39 General Machinery 447 Telecommunications 8 Electrical Machinery 341 Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat 8 Transportation Machinery,Equipment 95 Leasing,Rentals 140 Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment 68 Lodging, Hotels 36 Others 92 Recreation 69 Food,Beverages 402 Service Broadcasting 17 Textile,Textile Products,Clothing 217 1,384 Maintenance,Guarding,Testing 144 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 381 Advertising 129 Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books 118 Information 418 3,959 Chemical 331 Labor Dispatching 61 3.Size Recycled Resources 30 Special Services 209 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products 345 Medical,Welfare,Public Health 103 Machinery,Equipment 1,028 Education 24 Others 390 Others 138 Others 34 Large Firms 2, % Small to Medium-sized Firms 8, % micro Firms 2, % Total 10, % Total 10,589 5
6 2.Research Items *Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year) *Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours) * Survey on Corporate Attitudes toward Reduction in Summertime Electric Power Consumption * Survey on Corporate Attitudes towards the Reduction of Electricity Consumption in Summer 3.Research Period and Methodology Internet-based survey conducted June 19 through 30, The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index Research Purpose/Researched Terms TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on their general business activities including the current condition and future outlook of the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan s economy. Selection of the Subject Corporations Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in the survey. DI Formula The DI (Diffusion Index) is calculated by attaching a number (in parenthesis in the diagram below) to each of seven possible responses. Then multiplying the percentage of each response by the appropriate number, and adding the results. A DI over 50 is in the range of Good. A score under 50 is Bad. The number 50 is the dividing point ( Neither Good or Bad ). All numbers are rounded off to the hundredth. It should be noted that no weight is given to a company s responses based on its size. Calculations are made according to a one company, one vote rule.. For example, all corporations rated Very Good. DI=6/6x100(%)=100 All corporations rated Neither Good nor Bad. DI=3/6x100(%)=50. Size Classification Industry Large Firms Small to Medium-Sized Firms (Micro Firms included) Micro Firms Manufacturing and Capital: More than 300 million yen Capital: Below 300 million yen Other Industries* and or No. of Employee: Below 20 No. of Employee: Over 300 No. of Employee: Below 300 Wholesale Trade Capital: More than 100 million yen Capital: Below 100 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Retail Trade Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 No. of Employee: Over 50 No. of Employee: Below 50 Service** Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen and or No. of Employee: Below 5 No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sized corporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act. Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act. Very Bad Bad Moderately Bad Neither Good or Bad Moderately Good Good Very Good ( 0 ) ( 1/6 ) ( 2/6 ) ( 3/6 ) ( 4/6 ) ( 5/6 ) ( 6/6 ) DI=50 Dividing point
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