Domestic economy stopped worsening, negative shock moderated

Transcription

1 TDB Trends Research (Research & Summary for July 2016) Domestic economy stopped worsening, negative shock moderated - Nationwide improvement for the first time in a year and five months - keiki@mail.tdb.co.jp (Companies Researched 23,639; Valid responses: 10,285; Response rate: 43.5%; Survey Start Date: May 2002) < Overview of July 2016: Domestic economy stopped worsening > The economic diffusion index (DI) in July was 42.4, up 1.1 points from the previous month. This reflects an improvement for the first time in four months. The impact of negative shocks, such as the Kumamoto Earthquake, falsified fuel economy data, the British decision to leave the EU, moderated, and Japan s economy stopped worsening. < Future Outlook: Keep on leveling off, while continuing to seesaw > Economic conditions will keep on leveling off while continuing to seesaw. An expansionary economic policy is a positive factor, but on the other hand, there are many concerns in overseas economies. By industry: Eight industries have improved. Among these, six industries improved by more than 1 point. By size: The economy improved in all sizes for the first time in four months. Recovery of "large companies" is noticeable. By region: All regions improved for the first time in a year and five months. Restoration and reconstruction after the Kumamoto Earthquake are advancing After 1 month After 3 months (Prediction ) After 6 months After 1 year July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Projected future DI Change from July *: Economic DIs are calculated based on the structural ARIMA model, in which economic statistics are incorporated to the ARIMA model. 1

2 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)1/2 Total Large Firms Small to Medium-sized Firms Micro Firms Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries Finance Construction Real Estate Food,BEWerages,Livestock Feed Construction Materials,Furniture, Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products Pulp, Paper and Paper Products Publishing,Printing Manufacturing Chemical Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining General Machinery Electrical Machinery Transportation Machinery,Equipment Precision Machinery, Medical Instruments and Equipment Other Total Food,BEWerages Construction Materials, Furniture,Ceramics, Stone and Clay Products Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books Chemical Recycled Resources Steel,Nonferrous Metals, Mining Products Machinery,Equipment Other Total

3 Economic Diffusion Index (Economic DI)2/2 Food,BEWerages Drugs,Sundries Furniture Retail Electrical Household Appliances, Information Machinery and Equipment Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts Special Merchandise Various Merchandise Other Total Transportation,Warehousing Restaurants Postal,Telecommunications Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat Leasing,Rentals Lodging, Hotels Recreation Broadcasting Service Maintenance,Guarding,Testing Advertising Information Labor Dispatching Special Services Medical,Welfare,Public Health Education Other Total Other Hokkaido Tohoku kitakanto minamikanto Hokuriku Tokai Kinki Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu

4 Appendix 1.Research Subjects(Companies Researched 23,639: ; Valid Responses10,285 ; Response Rate 43.5%) Appendix 1.Region Hokkaido 535 Tokai 1,149 Tohoku 662 Kinki 1,719 kitakanto 704 Chugoku 574 minamikanto 3,340 Shikoku 315 Hokuriku 550 Kyushu 737 Total 10,285 2.Industry (10 Industries 51 Lines of business) Agriculture,Forestry,Fisheries Finance Construction Real Estate , Retail Food,Beverages Drugs,Sundries Furniture Food,Beverages,Livestock Feed Electrical Household Appliances,Information Machinery and Equipment Motor Vehicles,Motor Vehicle Parts 59 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 240 Special Merchandise 145 Pulp, Paper and Paper Products 108 Various Merchandise 44 Publishing,Printing 197 Others 5 Manufacturing Chemical 421 Transportation,Warehousing 445 3,223 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining 508 Restaurants 39 General Machinery 463 Telecommunications 13 Electrical Machinery 335 Electricity,Gas,Water,Heat 7 Transportation Machinery,Equipment 95 Leasing,Rentals 119 Precision Machinery,Medical Instruments and Equipment 81 Lodging, Hotels 31 Others 90 Recreation 57 Food,Beverages 349 Service Broadcasting ,384 Maintenance,Guarding,Testing 152 Construction Materials,Furniture,Ceramics,Stone and Clay Products 346 Advertising 117 Wholesale Paper Products,Stationery,Books 115 Information 433 3,959 Chemical 288 Labor Dispatching 49 Recycled Resources 38 Special Services 214 Steel,Nonferrous Metals,Mining Products Machinery,Equipment Medical,Welfare,Public Health Education Others 352 Others 134 Others 46 Total 10,285 3.Size Large Firms 2, % Small to Medium-sized Firms 8, % micro Firms 2, % Total 10, % 4

5 2.Research Items *Business Confidence (current, in 3 months, in 6 months, in 1 year) *Business Conditions (sales, purchasing and selling unit price, inventory, capacity utilization ratio, number of employees, overtime work hours) 3.Research Period and Methodology Internet-based survey conducted July The explanation of the Economic Diffusion Index Research Purpose/Researched Terms TDB Economic Trend Research (started from May 2002) is a monthly statistical survey conducted for over 20,000 nationwide corporations on their general business activities including the current condition and future outlook of the industry business performance and operating climate. The primary purpose of such a survey is to assess the current state of Japan s economy. Selection of the Subject Corporations Companies of all sizes in all domestic industries are eligible to participate in the survey. DI Formula The DI (Diffusion Index) is calculated by attaching a number (in parenthesis in the diagram below) to each of seven possible responses. Then multiplying the percentage of each response by the appropriate number, and adding the results. Very Moderately Neither or Moderately Very ( 0 ) ( 1/6 ) ( 2/6 ) ( 3/6 ) ( 4/6 ) ( 5/6 ) ( 6/6 ) DI=50 Dividing point A DI over 50 is in the range of. A score under 50 is. The number 50 is the dividing point ( Neither or ). All numbers are rounded off to the hundredth. It should be noted that no weight is given to a company s responses based on its size. Calculations are made according to a one company, one vote rule.. For example, all corporations rated Very. DI=6/6x100(%)=100 All corporations rated Neither nor. DI=3/6x100(%)=50. Size Classification Industry Large Firms Small to Medium-Sized Firms (Micro Firms included) Micro Firms Manufacturing and Capital: More than 300 million yen Capital: Below 300 million yen Other Industries* and or No. of Employee: Below 20 No. of Employee: Over 300 No. of Employee: Below 300 Wholesale Trade Capital: More than 100 million yen Capital: Below 100 million yen No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Retail Trade Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen No. of Employee: Over 50 No. of Employee: Below 50 Service** Capital: More than 50 million yen Capital: Below 50 million yen No. of Employee: Over 100 No. of Employee: Below 100 Note1: Large Firms refer to companies that rank in the top 3% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among small to midium-sized corporations excluding micro firms, which are defined in Small and Medium Enterprises Basic Act. Note2: Small to Medium-Sized Firms refer to companies that rank in the bottom 50% in terms of sales volume according to the type of business, among those not categorized as small to midium-sized corporations in Small to Medium-Sized Enterprises Basic Act. 5