Second estimate of GDP: January to March 2018

Transcription

1 Statistical bulletin Second estimate of GDP: January to March 2018 The second quarterly estimate of GDP based on additional data but produced later than the preliminary estimate, providing a more precise indication of economic growth. Contact: Charlotte Richards gdp@ons.gov.uk +44(0) Release date: 25 May 2018 Next release: 29 June February 2018 Notice A change was made in UK National Accounts: the Blue Book 2017 to correct the estimation of elements of purchased software, which were being double-counted from 2001 onwards along with discrepancies in the modelled data prior to During further quality assurance, we have identified that 2017 adjustment did not fully address the issue and an additional amendment to other machinery and equipment, and information and communication technology (ICT) equipment is required. Purchased software will be unaffected by this additional amendment. When implemented in the Blue Book 2018 consistent Quarterly National Accounts dataset, to be published 29 June 2018, it will increase the level of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) across the period by around 1.5% per year in current prices. The average impact on quarter-on quarter GFCF current price growth is positive 0.01% and the average impact on quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) current price growth is 0.00%. We do not yet know the definitive impact on the chained volume measures of GFCF or GDP growth rates, we expect them, though, to be similarly small. Page 1 of 20

2 Table of contents 1. Main points 2. Things you need to know about this release 3. Growth for Quarter unrevised at 0.1% 4. Services and production contribute to growth in the output approach of GDP in Quarter Household spending remains subdued in the first quarter of Compensation of employees drives growth in the income approach to measuring GDP 7. How is the UK economy performing compared with other European and non-european countries? 8. Links to related statistics 9. Are there any upcoming changes? 10. Quality and methodology Page 2 of 20

3 1. Main points UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.1% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate of GDP. When comparing GDP growth in the most recent quarter to the same quarter a year ago, we see a continuation of a pattern of slowing growth, in part reflecting a slowing in the growth of consumer-facing industries. The services industries increased by 0.3% in Quarter ; while construction decreased by 2.7% in Quarter Household spending grew by 0.2%, while business investment decreased by 0.2% between Quarter and Quarter Compensation of employees increased by 1.6% in Quarter , contributing most to the income approach to measuring GDP; in part reflecting an increase in earnings and employment in the latest quarter. GDP per head in volume terms decreased by 0.1% between Quarter and Quarter While the bad weather had some impact on the economy, particularly in construction and some areas of retail, its overall effect was limited, with partially offsetting impacts in energy supply and online sales. 2. Things you need to know about this release Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are three approaches used to measure GDP; the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. This second estimate of GDP is produced around seven and a half weeks after the end of the quarter. At this stage the data content of this estimate from the output measure of GDP has risen since the preliminary estimate to around 90% of the total required for the final output-based estimate. There is also around 70% data content available to produce estimates of GDP from the expenditure approach and 60% data content for the income approach. Further information on all three approaches to measuring GDP can be found in the short guide to national accounts (PDF, 317KB). Data in chained volume measures within this bulletin have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated), with the exception of income data, which are only available in current prices. Revisions In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy the period open for revision in this release is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 only. Page 3 of 20

4 3. Growth for Quarter unrevised at 0.1% UK gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.1% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Table 1 shows GDP and the headline economic indicators from 2016 onwards. Page 4 of 20

5 Table 1: Headline economic indicators and GDP per head for the UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 to Quarter % growth 1 Chained volume measures Current market prices GDP Household expenditure Gross fixed capital formation GDP per head GDP Compensation of employees Seasonally adjusted Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Percentage change on previous period. 2. Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). 3. Updated population data were taken on for the quarterly tail (2016 Q1 onwards) in the December 2017 Quarterly National Accounts. Updates to population estimates before this point will be incorporated when the whole time series is open for revision in the Blue Book 2018 consistent data (June 2018). Figure 1 shows the seasonally adjusted level of GDP along with quarterly growths. The growth between Quarter and Quarter is the 21st consecutive quarterly increase and continues the UK s pattern of growth since Quarter Page 5 of 20

6 Growth in UK GDP is now 10.7% above the GDP pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter , having surpassed it in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Figure 1: Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2005 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. When looking at UK GDP growth in volume terms in the current quarter (Quarter ) compared with the same quarter a year ago (Quarter ), GDP increased by 1.2%. Implied deflator The GDP implied deflator at market prices for Quarter is 1.4% above the same quarter of The GDP implied deflator is calculated by dividing current price (nominal) GDP by chained volume (real) GDP and multiplying by 100 to convert to an index. It is not used in the calculation of GDP; the deflators for expenditure components, which are the basis for the implied GDP deflator, are used directly in the compilation of real GDP. Page 6 of 20

7 GDP per head In Quarter , GDP per head fell by 0.1% compared with Quarter , reflecting population increasing at a greater rate than GDP. GDP per head is now 3.0% above the GDP pre-economic downturn peak in Quarter , having surpassed this peak in Quarter (Figure 2). Figure 2: Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008=100 Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. GDP per head is calculated by dividing GDP in chained volume measures by the population estimates and projections. It is not a measure of productivity or well-being, but is a useful statistic as it removes the impact of the changing size of the population from headline GDP figures. The population estimates used in this release are those published on 22 June 2017 and the used are those published on 26 October population projections Page 7 of 20

8 4. Services and production contribute to growth in the output approach of GDP in Quarter The output approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP) involves estimating production activity within the UK economy. It increased by 0.1% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate of GDP. Services The largest component within the output approach of GDP is the services sector, which increased by 0.3% overall in the first quarter of Positive growth was recorded within three of the four sub-sectors of the services industries between Quarter and Quarter , all of which were unrevised from the preliminary estimate of GDP: transport, storage and communications increased by 0.4% business services and finance increased by 0.4% government and other services increased by 0.1% distribution, hotels and restaurants decreased by 0.1% As reported in the preliminary estimate of GDP, despite services growing in the most recent quarter, the quarter on same quarter a year ago growth shows a weakening in growth in this part of the economy. This is particularly seen in the more domestic consumer-facing industries such as retail trade, food and beverage-serving activities, and arts, entertainment and recreation (Figure 3). Page 8 of 20

9 Figure 3: Growth rates of the services sector and its components, quarter on same quarter a year ago Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 to Quarter Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. 2. Consumer-facing industries refer to retail trade, food and beverage serving activities, publishing, audio visual and broadcasting activities, and arts, entertainment and recreation (Standard Industrial Classification 2007 codes 45, 47, 56, 58, 59, 60, 90, 91, 92 and 93). Further detail on the services industries lower-level components can be found in the Index of Services statistical bulletin. Production Production output was estimated to have increased by 0.6% between Quarter and Quarter , revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate of GDP. Within production, three of the four sub-sectors increased in this period, the previous estimates are shown in brackets: Page 9 of 20

10 electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning increased by 2.5% (2.3%) mining and quarrying increased by 2.2% (3.5%) manufacturing increased by 0.2% (unrevised) water supply industries decreased by 1.0% (negative 0.3%) Strength in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning industry can be attributed to below-average temperatures in February and March 2018, while the increase in mining and quarrying was due largely to the recovery from the fall in oil and gas production in Quarter The Forties pipeline system (FPS), which closed for several days in the final quarter of 2017, returned to normal operating capacity in Quarter More information can be found in the Index of Production statistical bulletin, which was published on 10 May Construction Construction output was estimated to have decreased by 2.7% in Quarter , revised upwards from negative 3.3% in the preliminary estimate of GDP. This is the weakest growth since Quarter 2 (Apr to June) As previously reported, there is some evidence of an impact from the bad weather on this industry, however, construction output fell across all three months of the quarter, not just the period of the bad weather. Further information relating to the most recent quarter can be found in the Construction output in Great Britain statistical bulletin. Agriculture Agriculture, the sector that makes up the smallest proportion of total output, decreased by 1.4% into Quarter , unrevised from the preliminary estimate of GDP. Figure 4 shows the contributions to GDP growth from the sectors of output since Quarter In Quarter , the services industries made the largest contribution to GDP growth, followed by production, while construction, followed by agriculture deducted from GDP growth. In all periods, the services industries contributed most to GDP growth. Page 10 of 20

11 Figure 4: Output components percentage contribution to GDP growth for the UK, quarter-on-quarter Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. 2. Contributions are to output gross value added and therefore may not sum to the percentage change in average GDP. 3. Contributions may not sum to GDP growth due to rounding. 4. This chart does not include the statistical discrepancy and components may not sum to the percentage change in average GDP. 5. Household spending remains subdued in the first quarter of 2018 The expenditure approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.1% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) The expenditure approach is the sum of all final expenditures within the economy, that is, all expenditure on goods and services that are not used up or transformed in the production process. Page 11 of 20

12 Household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) HHFCE, or household spending, grew by 0.2% between Quarter and Quarter , continuing a pattern of subdued growth seen in recent quarters. When comparing Quarter with the same quarter a year ago, household spending grew by 1.1%. The quarter on same quarter a year ago growths show a pattern of weakening through 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, consistent with the weakness seen in consumer-facing industries in the output approach to measuring GDP. General government final consumption expenditure (GGFCE) GGFCE, or government expenditure, increased by 0.5% between Quarter and Quarter The largest contributor to this increase was spending on public administration. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) In Quarter , GFCF increased by 0.9% compared with Quarter Initial estimates of business investment, which makes up the largest proportion of total GFCF, decreased by 0.2% in Quarter The private dwelling and general government sectors of GFCF contributed most to the GFCF increase in Quarter , growing by 3.4% and 3.2% respectively. Further details of the asset and sector breakdown of GFCF can be found within the Business investment release. Trade in goods and services In Quarter , the trade deficit narrowed slightly to 9,228 million in volume terms, from 9,375 million in Quarter Total trade imports decreased by 0.6% whilst total exports decreased by 0.5%, between Quarter and Quarter Decreases in both imports and exports in nominal terms were larger than decreases in volume terms, which may be linked to movements in the sterling exchange rate seen in Quarter The trade in goods figures in this release are consistent with the monthly UK trade release published on 10 May Figure 5 shows the quarterly contribution of the expenditure components to the growth of GDP in chained volume measures from Quarter to Quarter In the latest quarter, household spending, government spending and trade imports all contributed positively to GDP growth, while gross capital formation (which includes GFCF, inventories and valuables) and trade exports deducted from GDP growth. Page 12 of 20

13 Figure 5: Expenditure components percentage contribution to GDP growth for the UK, quarter-on-quarter Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. Contributions may not sum to GDP growth due to rounding. 3. This chart does not include the statistical discrepancy and components may not sum to the percentage change in average GDP. 6. Compensation of employees drives growth in the income approach to measuring GDP Nominal gross domestic product (GDP), or GDP not adjusted to take account of inflation, increased by 0.3% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) The income approach to measuring GDP adds up all income generated by production in the form of gross operating surplus (profits), compensation of employees (income from employment), mixed income (selfemployment income) and taxes on products and production less subsidies for the whole economy. All data quoted in the rest of this section are in current prices seasonally adjusted. Page 13 of 20

14 Compensation of employees (CoE) CoE consists of wages and salaries, and employers social contributions. Total CoE showed positive growth of 1.6% (seasonally adjusted) into Quarter This compares with an increase of 0.7% in the previous quarter. The increase can in part be attributed to an increase in earnings and a rise in the numbers of people employed, as reported in the UK labour market: May 2018 publication. Taxes on products and production less subsidies Taxes on products and production less subsidies showed a decrease of 2.4% in Quarter The fall in taxes on products and production is due to a decrease in consumer-facing taxes including Value Added Tax (VAT), Alcohol and Tobacco Duty. Other income There was an increase in other income of 0.5% in Quarter Other income is comprised of mixed income (mostly self-employment income) and the operating surplus (profits) of the non-corporate sector. This slowed from a growth of 1.2% in the previous quarter, in part due to a reduction in the numbers of self-employed as reported in the UK labour market: May 2018 publication. Gross operating surplus of corporations Gross operating surplus of corporations saw a decrease of 1.3% between Quarter and Quarter This category includes the operating surplus, or profits, of private corporations, private non-financial corporations and public corporations. Figure 6 shows the contribution made by income components to current price GDP. In most quarters CoE provides the largest contribution to growth in the income measure of GDP, this component contributed 0.7 percentage points to current price GDP growth in Quarter , while gross operating surplus of corporations, and taxes on products and production less subsidies deducted from GDP growth. Page 14 of 20

15 Figure 6: Income components percentage contribution to GDP growth for the UK, quarter-on-quarter Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: Q1 refers to Jan to Mar, Q2 refers to Apr to June, Q3 refers to July to Sept, Q4 refers to Oct to Dec. Contributions may not sum to GDP growth due to rounding. 3. This chart does not include the statistical discrepancy and components may not sum to the percentage change in average GDP. 7. How is the UK economy performing compared with other European and non-european countries? The estimates quoted in this international comparison section are the latest available estimates at the time of preparation of this statistical bulletin and may subsequently have been revised. At the time of preparation, data for Canada were unavailable; therefore are not included in the following analysis. Most of the areas included within our international comparisons witnessed positive growth in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 with the exception of Japan, which decreased by 0.2% (Table 2). The strongest growth seen in this quarter was 0.6% by the USA. France, Germany and Italy all saw growth of 0.3%. Page 15 of 20

16 European Union (EU28) economies grew by an average of 0.4% in Quarter This means that average gross domestic product (GDP) growth for this group of countries has been positive for 20 consecutive quarters. G7 countries saw an average of 0.4% growth in Quarter 1. All G7 countries are above pre-economic downturn peaks except for Italy whose GDP remains 5.5% below the pre-downturn peak (Quarter ). The area currently showing the biggest recovery over this period is the USA, up 16.8% since the downturn. UK GDP is now 10.7% above the level recorded in Quarter The data used for these international comparisons are gathered from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development s website excluding the data from the UK, which is compiled within Office for National Statistics. Table 2: International GDP growth rate comparisons, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 to Quarter Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted EU28 EA19 G7 France Germany Italy UK Canada Japan USA Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Sources: Office for National Statistics (UK) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Notes: 1. Percentage change on previous period. 2. EU28 is the European Union. 3. EA19 is the Eurozone. 4. G7 is the Group of Seven countries. 5. Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). 6. Non UK countries and groupings may show revisions in the back series due to NSI revisions denotes the data are unavailable. 8. Links to related statistics Page 16 of 20

17 Release content All data in this bulletin are seasonally adjusted estimates. Non-seasonally adjusted data are available within the UK Economic Accounts (UKEA). These data can be downloaded directly from the UKEA dataset and on the UKEA main aggregates dataset table. Data published in the UKEA reflect data as published on 29 March 2018 and will be next updated on 29 June 2018 when the Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 quarterly national accounts release and UKEA will become consistent. Economic context A monthly economic commentary has been published alongside this release, presenting new analysis on the latest economic data. Business investment Further details on business investment along with revision triangles and a real time database are available within the datasets of the, published on 25 May Business investment release Index of Services The Index of Services publication was published on 25 May 2018 and includes data for March Are there any upcoming changes? Blue Book 2018 The next quarterly national accounts (29 June 2018) release will be consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2018, which will be published on 31 July The annual Blue Book includes a number of improvements to data sources and methods; we have published a number of articles detailing these changes and their impact on the national accounts: an article discussing the impact on GDP current price and chained volume measure annual and quarterly estimates: 1997 to 2016 was published on 8 May 2018; it provided estimates of the total impact of all the improvements to current price and chained volume measure (CVM or real ) gross domestic product (GDP) up to 2016 on 8 May 2018 we also published an article providing UK trade data impact from new developments, 1997 to 2016; it contained an impact assessment of provisional UK trade data following implementation of new trade systems and subsequent developments A list of all National Accounts articles is available. New model for publishing GDP An article introducing a new publication model for GDP was published on 27 April It provided detail of the upcoming changes to the GDP publication model as well as the benefits and trade-offs and the impact on data content. Page 17 of 20

18 In summary, for the first time, an estimate of monthly GDP will be published on 10 July 2018 (for the reference period of May) and there will be two quarterly estimates of GDP per quarter rather than the current three; the preliminary estimate of GDP will be deferred by around two weeks and the second estimate of GDP will be brought forward by two weeks to form the new first estimate released six weeks after the end of the quarter. The income and expenditure approaches to GDP will be made available in this new first estimate, two weeks earlier than presently. The first estimate of quarterly GDP (for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018) under this new model will be published on 10 August Future of the Business investment provisional estimate As of August 2018, the dedicated Business investment provisional results bulletin will no longer be produced. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and business investment high-level commentary will be included instead within the new first quarterly estimate of GDP bulletin and the GDP publication tables will be expanded to include current price as well as chained volume measure data in all quarterly GDP releases. All other current business investment release material will be released approximately one week after the first quarterly estimate of GDP. There are no plans currently to change the format and content of the Business investment revised results bulletin published alongside the quarterly national accounts other than the normal evolution of a bulletin. Further information on this change can be found in the Business investment January to March 2018 provisional results release. International Passenger Survey The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is in the process of transferring data collection from paper forms to tablet computers. Initial analysis of the new data suggests there may be discontinuities arising from the change in mode of collection. These new data will not be used in headline trade or other national accounts estimates until we have produced a consistent time series on the new basis. More information is available in the Overseas travel and tourism release. 10. Quality and methodology The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on: the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data uses and users of the data how the output was created the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data The national accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that the national accounts are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Important quality issues There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series and these include: Page 18 of 20

19 expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy early estimates are based on incomplete data Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of errors in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical error. Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions; the Validation and quality assurance section in the Quality and Methodology Information report analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. Reaching the GDP balance The different data content and quality of the three approaches the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. In the UK, there are more data available on output in the short-term than in either of the other two approaches. However, to obtain the best estimate of GDP (the published figure), the estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest quarter where the output data takes the lead due to its larger data content. Information on the methods we use for Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP is available. Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of the second estimate of GDP datasets in this release, have a target limit of plus or minus 2,000 million on any quarter. To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, balancing adjustments are applied to the expenditure and income components of GDP as required. They are applied to the individual components where data content is particularly weak in a given quarter due to a higher level of forecast content. The size and direction of the quarterly alignment adjustments in Quarter indicate that in this quarter the level of expenditure is higher than the level of output and income is lower than the level of output. Table 3 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP estimates in this publication. Page 19 of 20

20 Table 3: Balancing adjustments applied to the Second Estimate of GDP dataset for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2018 GDP measurement approach and component adjustment applied to Q Expenditure Household final consumption expenditure Current prices -300 Chained volume measure -300 Trade in Services (imports) Current prices 850 Chained volume measure 850 Non-profit institutions serving households expenditure Current price -150 Income Chained volume measure -150 Private non-financial corporations Current price -500 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Adjustments are in million. 2. Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Page 20 of 20

21 A1 Gross domestic product and gross value added = 100 Value indices at current prices Chained volume indices Implied deflators 2 Gross domestic Gross value Gross domestic Gross value Gross domestic Gross value Market sector Gross product at added at product at added at product at added at gross value domestic mar ket basic mar ket prices basic pr ices mar ket prices basic pr ices added expenditure prices prices YBEU YBEX YBEZ CGCE L48H YBFV YBGB CGBV Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest year on previous year IHYM KGL6 IHYP KGM7 L489 KH7D IHYS KGM Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter IHYN KGL8 IHYQ KGM9 KH7E IHYT KGM Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of previous year IHYO KGM2 IHYR KGN3 L48D KH7F IHYU KGM Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates cannot be regarded as accurate to the last digit shown. 2 Based on the sum of expenditure components of GDP at current prices and in chained volume terms.

22 Gross domestic product and gross value added1 A2 At current prices Chained volume measures (Reference year 2015) million Gross domestic less Gross value Gross domestic less Gross value Gross value product at Basic price added at product at Basic pr ice added at added excluding mar ket prices adjustment 2 basic prices market prices adjustment 2 basic prices oil & gas 3 YBHA NTAP ABML ABMI NTAO ABMM KLS Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e,latest year on previous year IHYM KGL6 IHYP KGM7 KLH Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter IHYN KGL8 IHYQ KGM Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of previous year IHYO KGM2 IHYR KGN3 KLH Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates are given to the nearest million but cannot be regarded as accurate to this degree. 2 Taxes on products less subsidies. 3 Calculated by using gross value added at basic prices minus extraction of cr ude petroleum and natural gas.

23 Gross value added at chained volume measures basic prices, by categor y of output1,2 B = 100 Production Service industries Agri- Mining & Distr i- Tr anspor t Gross culture, quarr ying Electr ic, bution, storage Business Govern- value forestr y, inc oil gas, Water hotels & and services ment and Gross added and & gas Manu- steam & supply, Constr- restaura- commu- and other value excluding fishing extract factur ing air sewerage Total uction nts nications finance services Total added 4 oil & gas 2015 Weights L2KL L2KR L2KX L2MW L2N2 L2KQ L2N8 L2PZ KI8M KI8O KI8Q L2NC CGCE KLH Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest year on previous year L3BB L3BH L3BN L3DM L3DQ L3BG L3DW L3GP KI8L KI8N KI8P L3E2 KGM7 KLH Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter KGM Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of previous year L3ZZ L427 L42D L44C L44G L426 L44M L47F KII2 KIH9 KIH8 L44Q KGN3 KLH Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates cannot be regarded as accurate to the last digit shown. 2 Components of output are valued at basic prices, which excludes taxes and includes subsidies on products. 3 Weights may not sum to the total due to rounding. 4 This is a balanced index of UK GVA taking into account data from the Income and Expenditure approaches. Thus it will not necessarily be the weighted sum of the industrial indices.

24 Gross value added at chained volume measures basic prices, by categor y of output1,2 B = 100 Ser vice industr ies Public Tr anspor t, Financial Professional admin, Health Wholesale storage Accommodati- and scientific defence, and and retail infor mation on & food insurance admin & social social Other Total trade comms ser vices activities Real estate support secur ity Education wor k ser vices 4 ser vices 2015 Weights L2NE KI8M L2NQ L2O6 L2OC L2OH L2P8 L2PA L2PC L2Q5 L2NC Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest year on previous year L3E4 KI8L L3EG L3EU L3F2 L3F7 L3FW L3FY L3G2 L3GT L3E Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of the previous year L44S KII2 L456 L45K L45Q L45V L46M L46O L46Q L47J L44Q 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates cannot be regarded as accurate to the last digit shown. 2 Components of output are valued at basic prices, which excludes taxes and includes subsidies on production. 3 Weights may not sum to the total due to rounding. 4 Compr ising sections R, S and T of SIC(2007).

25 Gross domestic product: expenditure at current market prices1 C1 National expenditure on goods and services at market prices million Final consumption expenditure Gross capital for mation Statisti- Acquisit- cal Gross Non-prof- Gross Of which Of which ions less Gross discre- domestic it General fixed business Change in alignment disposals final less pancy product House- instit- govern- capital investme- inven- adjust- of Total expend- Total Trade (expen- at market holds utions 2 ment for mation nt 3 tor ies 4 ment valuables 5 Total expor ts iture imports balance 6 diture) prices ABJQ HAYE NMRP NPQS NPEK CAEX DMUN NPJQ YBIL IKBH ABMF IKBI IKBJ GIXM YBHA Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest year on previous year KGY7 KGZ8 KH2C KG6O KG6N KGX3 KH2O KGV7 KH3H IHYM Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter KGY8 KGZ9 KH2D KG6W KG6V KGX4 KH2P KGV8 KH3I IHYN 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of previous year KGY9 KH22 KH2E KG76 KG75 KGX5 KH2Q KGV9 KH3J IHYO 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates are given to the nearest million, but cannot be regarded as accurate to this degree. 2 Non-profit institutions serving households. 3 A fur ther breakdown of business investment can be found in the Business investment in the UK bulletin. 4 Quar terly alignment adjustment included in this series. 5 Acquisitions less disposals of valuables can be a volatile series due to the inclusion of non-monetary gold, but any volatility is likely to be GDP neutral as this is offset in UK trade figures. 6 Trade balance is calculated by using expor ts of goods and services minus impor ts of goods and services.

26 Gross domestic product by categor y of expenditure: chained volume measures1 C2 Reference year 2015, million National expenditure on goods and services at market prices Final consumption expenditure Gross capital for mation Statisti- Acquisit- cal Gross Non-prof- Gross Of which Of which ions less Gross discre- domestic it General fixed business Change in alignment disposals final less pancy product House- instit- govern- capital investme- inven- adjust- of Total expend- Total Trade (expen- at market holds utions 2 ment for mation nt 3 tor ies 4 ment valuables 5 Total expor ts iture imports balance 6 diture) prices ABJR HAYO NMRY NPQT NPEL CAFU DMUM NPJR YBIM IKBK ABMG IKBL IKBM GIXS ABMI Seasonally adjusted 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest year on previous year KGZ5 KH26 KH2I KG7N KG7M KGX9 KH2U KGW5 KH3N IHYP Percentage chang e, latest quarter on previous quarter KGZ6 KH27 KH2J KG7Q KG7P KGY2 KH2V KGW6 KH3O IHYQ 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percentage chang e, latest quarter on corresponding quarter of previous year KGZ7 KH28 KH2K KG7T KG7S KGY3 KH2W KGW7 KH3P IHYR 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Estimates are given to the nearest million but cannot be regarded as accurate to this degree. 2 Non-profit institutions serving households. 3 A fur ther breakdown of business investment can be found in the Business investment in the UK bulletin. 4 Quar terly alignment adjustment included in this series. 5 Acquisitions less disposals of valuables can be a volatile series due to the inclusion of non-monetary gold, but any volatility is likely to be GDP neutral as this is offset in UK trade figures. 6 Trade balance is calculated by using expor ts of goods and services minus impor ts of goods and services.