N ational Economic Trends

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1 N ational Economic Trends The Delayed Recovery of Employment Real gross domestic product has been increasing since the first quarter of 1991 and passed its prerecession level in the third quarter of Technically this means the recession is over, but many people find this hard to believe. The chart below gives one reason why. It compares nonfarm payroll employment for the twenty-one months after the March 1991 trough of economic activity to the average recovery of employment following the low points of seven previous recessions.1 Twenty-one months after previous roughs, employment had increased by 6.8 percent on average. The smallest increase was 4.8 percent following the 1961 trough. For the most recent period, March 1991 through December 1992, employment grew by only 0.3 percent. One illuminating facet of the recent employment situation can be examined by dividing unemployed people into four groups: job losers, job leavers, those reentering the labor force, and those entering for the first time. In contrast to previous recoveries, after the business cycle trough in March 1991 the number of people unemployed because they lost their jobs continued to rise for more than a year while numbers of new entrants, reentrants, and job leavers followed a pattern similar to previous recoveries. Thus the small employment increase has comprised a relatively large number of people still losing jobs barely offset by a slightly larger number of people finding new jobs. Why has employment growth been so weak? One reason is that output growth has also been weak during this recovery. A complementary reason is that productivity growth has been fairly strong. Expanding businesses have thus been able to produce additional output without hiring many new employees. Joseph A. Ritter Nonfarm Payroll Employment Following NBER Troughs Employment (Trough=1.0) Months After Trough 1 The recovery following the July 1980 trough is excluded because another recession started only a year later. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Research and Public Information,, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO or by calling Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at

2 Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers Percent Change From Previous Year Percent Seasonally Adjusted Percent Consumer Price Index Terminal Initial Month =100 Month ] Prepared by Federal Reserve Sank of St. Louis December 11, 1992

3 Consumer Price Index - Food Terninal Initial Month =100 Month December 11, 1992 Consumer Price Index - Energy Terninal Initial Month =100 Month Deceaber 11, 1992

4 Percent Producer Price Index - Finished Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Producer Price Index - Finished Goods Teminal Initial Month 1982 = 100 Month Deceaber 10, 1992

5 Millions of Persons 126 Civilian Employment and Unem ploym ent Rate Seasonally Adjusted Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Civilian Employment Terninai Initial Month Month " '* , Thousands of Persons , , , , , , , , , , , , , , *6 117, , , , ,311 Revised fro«1988. Prepared by Foderai Reserve Bank of St. Louis Ducenber 4, 1992

6 Millions of Persons 125 Payroll Em ploym ent Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons ' ' T r Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated Payroll Employment (Compounded Annua] Rates of Change) Terninal Initial Month Month , ,190 Thousands of Parsons , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,711 Dece«ber 4, 1992

7 Terminal Month Service-Producing Employment Initial Month Thousands of Persons , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,438 Decenber 4, 1992 Goods-Producing Employment Terminal Initial Month Thousands of Month Persons , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,273 Deceaber 4, 1992

8 Change in the Employment Cost Index and Its Components Percent Change From Previous Year Percent Seasonally Adjusted Percent Total compensation is the sum of benefits and w ages and salaries for private industry workers. Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation Teminal Initial June Data are for the last month of quarter 8 October 27, 1992

9 Industrial Production Seasonally Adjusted 1987= Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Industrial Production Terminal Initial Month 1987 = 100 Month Decenber 16, 1992

10 Trillions of Dollars Personal Incom e in 1987 Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Honth Billions of Dollars Month Annual Rates , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Decenber 27, 1992

11 Billions of Dollars Retail Sales Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. P ercentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Retail Sales in Dollars Tertiinal Initial Month Millions of Month Dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,274 Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U { =100). 11 December 13, 1992

12 Inventories Compared With Monthly Sales Manufacturing and Trade Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories Terninal Initial Month Month Millions of Dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ' , , , , , Deceaber 16, 1992

13 Trillions of Dollars Gross Dom estic Product Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SÏ Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estiaates. 13 Decenber 25, 1992

14 Percent Im plicit Price Deflator for GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Implicit Price Deflator Teroinal Initial < Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates. 14 Decenber 25, 1992

15 Final Sales in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,972.6 Decenber 25, 1992 Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,353.6 Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates. 15 Decenber 25, 1992

16 Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates M rv> December 25, 1992 I Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars Teroinal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates. 16 December 25, 1992

17 Exports in 1987 Dollars Terainal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Z Deceaber 25, 1992 Imports in 1987 Dollars Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estimates. 17 Deceaber 25, 1992

18 Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars Terainal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates < Fourth quarter 1992 data are advance estisates. Deceaber 25, 1992 Corporate Profits Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Corporate profits with capital consunption and inventory valuation adjustaents. Third quarter data are final estimates. 18 Deceaber 25, 1992

19 Percent Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Gross Private Saving (Compounded Annua] Rates of Change) Terminal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Third quarter 1992 data are final estivates. 19 December 25, 1992

20 B usiness Productivity and Com pensation Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Business Sector Output per Hour Terainal Initial 1982 = ^ Decenber S, 1992

21 Terminal N e t F e d e r a l D e b t (Compounded Annua] Rates of Change) Initial Billions of Dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , December 21, 1992 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billions of dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Gross federal debt Federal debt held by agencies and trusts Net federal debt Federal debt held by Federal Reserve Banks Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt by foreign investors 1988 March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. 21

22 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Receipts Expenditures Surplus or d e fic it(-) National Cyclically National Cyclically National Cyclically income accounts adjusted income accounts adjusted income accounts adjusted s budget budget budget budget budget budget N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A. 4 N.A. N.A N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Not Available Fiscal years Actual Estimates Total budget Receipts $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Outlays Surplus or deficit ( - ) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Calendar years National income accounts budget Receipts $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Expenditures Surplus or deficit( - ) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Cyclically adjusted budget Receipts $ $ $ $ $ $ Expenditures Surplus or deficit( - ) $ $ $ $ $ $ Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Estimates from OMB s Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future (January 6, 1993). Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce. 22

23 Billions of Dollars Government Deficit( - ) / Surplus(+) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars National income accounts basis Federal Defense Expenditures Terninal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates Ì Fourth quarter data are advance estimates. 23 December 25, 1992

24 Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes. Federal Nondefense Expenditures Terainal Initial Billions of Dollars Annual Rates , , , , , , ,158.8 Fourth quarter data are advance estinates. 24 December 25, 1992

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