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1 TABLE A 1. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CONSTA~T 10 DOLLARS Commodity Petroleum Coal Coffee Cocoa Tea Sugar Beef Shrimp Bananas Oranges Rice Wheat Maize Grain sorghum Unit $tbbl Palm oil Coconut oil $lmt Groundnut oil $/rnt Soybean oil Soybeans Copra Groundnut meal $/rnt Soybean meal Cotton Jute Rubber Tobacco Logs (meranti) $/m 3 Logs (sapell~ $1m 3 Sawnwood $/m 3 Copper Tin Nickel Aluminum Lead Zinc Iron ore $/rnt Bauxite Gold $,\oz Silver /toz Phosphate rock Urea TSP DAP Potassium chloride.. Not available , I,037 1,584 1,510 1, , , ,634 1,2 11,348 2,153 1,212 1, Actual ,421 1, I ISO , , ,032 2,284 9,058 2,466 1,259 1, , , , ,066 I,682 7,142 1, , , 179 1, lib l ib 1, , ,061 2, , , , ,864 1, , / ISO 117 lbo I, 129 I,027 I, , , ,978 1, , , , ,566 1,176 SOB 1, los , ,080 1, Note: Computed from unrounded data and deflated by manufacturing un~ value {MLN) index { 10= I 00). Forecast as of October 14, 14. a. Also known as muriate a potlsh. Source: World Bank. International Ecooomics Department, Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit 124 Short-term projections / l BO ,235 1,230 1, lib 1, , ,638 1, SOl ISO , , ,1 04 1, lbo , , ,224 1, , Long-term projections ,1 04 1, ISO , , ,493 1, , , , ,687 1, , COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
2 TABLE A2. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CURRENT DOLLARS Commodity Petroleum Coal Coffee Cocoa Tea Sugar Beef Shrimp Bananas Oranges Rice Wheat Maize Grain sorghum Unit $Jbbl Palm oil Coconut oil Groundnut oil Soybean oil Soybeans Copra Groundnut meal Soybean meal Cotton Jute Rubber Tobacco Logs (meranti) $!ffil Logs (sapello $!ffil Sawnwood $1m3 Copper Tin Nickel Aluminum Lead Zinc Iron ore Bauxite Gold Moz Silver./roz Phosphate rock Urea TSP DAJP otassium chloride'.. Not available lis B , , II Actool // /2 / J.B B.O B ,023 1, B B SB4 674 B B 162 2, ,1B2 1,644 6,519 1, B.I , Note: Data have been rounded. Forecast as of October 1-4, 1-4. a. Also knov.on as muriate of potash. 216 SOl B6 157 SB3 92 1, ,417 1,154 4,B 1, B B B IB IB4 IB6 2B B ,116 1,079 1,155 1,095 1, B , ,B4B ,30B 1, , Source: World Bank, International Economics Department, C~ity Policy and Analysis Unit. 3BI B IB ,964 m , B,B64 1,639 Bll 1, B B4 4B los B ISO B 37B 101 2, ,339 54B 8,156 1, I, II B7 m 57B B 2, ,2BI 5 7,001 1, , B BO B 20B 128 2, I, ,293 1, Short-tenn projectrlns / B.O BI B ISB I,325 I,340 I, BS B ,008 SB B , , ,050 1, B7 53B B 149 1, , ,650 1, , JOB 315 IB B ,950 33B 355 BOO 1, ,900 1, I, ISO lbo Long-tenn projections B B ,354 1,B B SIS IB , , ,190 1, , B SB4 44 m B B ,3B ,050 2,7 7 10,576 1, , B 42.0 SOB B NOVEMBER 14 35
3 TABLE A3. WEIGHTED INDEX OF COMMODITY PRICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS AND IN CONSTANT 10 DOLLARS /0=100 Year commodities (excluding energy) Petroleum () Toto/ agriculture (67.7)' Toto/ food (53.2)' Beverages (22.3)' Grains (9.4)' Current dollars (9.3)' Other (12.3)' Norrfood agriculture (/4.4)' (5.2f Metals and minerals (27.1 )' Constant /0 dollars Note: FigUres for 14-5 are projections. Forecast as of October 14, 14. a. Percentage share of commodity group in 33-<ommodity index. Source: WOOd Bank, International Economics Department, Commodity Policy and hlalysis Un~ TABLE A4. INFLATION INDICES FOR SELECTED YEARS G-5 MUVindex' US GOP deflator Year = 100 %changed /0= I 00 % changed G-5 GDP/GNP de~ator" 10=100 %changed Note: FigUres for 13 are p!'9visionaj estimates, except for US GDP deflator, which is actual; all figures for 14-5 are projections. Forecast as of September 21' 14. a Un~ value index in US dollar terms of manufaclu'es exported from 1he G-5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, 1he United Kingdom, and the Un~ed States), weighted proportionally to the countries' exports to 1he de...eloping countries. b. Aggregate index of GDPJGNP deflator.; in US dollar terms for 1he G-5 countries, using SDR-based rn<mng weights. c. Aggregate consumer price index in US doflar terms for the G-7 countries (Canada. France, Gennany.ltaly, japan, the Un~ed Kingdom, and 1he Un~ed States), weighted by 1he countries' average GDPJGNP in current US dollars. d. For 1985, 10, 0, and 5, 1he average annual growth rate for the pn!vious fne-year period. Source: G-5 MLN index, G-5 GDP!GNP deflator, and G-7 CPI: WOOd Bank. US GDP deflator: US Department of Commerce I G-7 CPf< 10= I 00 % changed COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
4 TABLE AS. COMMODITY PRICE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN CONSTANT 10 DOLLARS 70% probability distribution Commodity Unit /4 15 /6 0 Petroleum $Jbbl Coal Coffee il<g n Cocoa il<g Tea ltil<g Sugar Beef ltil<g ln Shrimp il<g I,214 -I,255 I, 158-1,302 I, 122-1, ,261 Bananas Oranges Rice Wheat Maize Grain sorghum Palm oil Coconut oil ,115 Groundnut oil 846-1, ' , ,083 Soybean oil Soybeans Copra B87 Groundnut meal Soybean meal Cotton il<g jute Rubber ltil<g 113~ Tobacco $frnt I,694-1,873 I,527-2,025 I,442-2,075 I,360-2, 128 Logs ( meranb) $/ml Logs (sapell~ $/ml Sawnwood $/ml ,101 Copper I,922-2,234 I,523-2,332 I,321-2,250 I,280-2,558 Tin il<g Nickel 5,216-6,092 5,226-7, 128 5,069-7,641 5,342-10,505 AJuminum 1,2n- 1,351 I,322-1,606 1,281-1,696 I,060-1,745 Lead BI2 Zinc 804-1, , , ,630 Iron ore Bauxite Gold $;\oz Silver /toz Phosphate rock $frnt Urea T5P DAP ln Potassium chloricle Note: Forecast as of October 14, 14. Source: World Bank, International Economics Department, Commodity Policy and MaJysis Un~. NOVEMBER 14 37
5 TABLE A6. COMMODITY PRICE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN CURRENT DOLLARS 7096 probability distribution Commodity Unit /4 /5 /6 0 Petroleum $/obi Coal Coffee ~A<g Cocoa ~A<g Tea ~A<g Sugar Beef ~A<g Shrimp A<g I,303-1,347 1,262-1,418 1,244-1,456 1,-1,547 Bananas Oranges Rice Wheat Maize Grain sorghum Palm oil Coconut oil ,368 Groundnut oil 908-1, , , ,329 Soybean oil Soybeans Copra ,088 Groundnut meal Soybean meal Cotton A<g jute Rubber A<g 12J Tobacco I,818-2,010 I,664-2,206 I,5-2,30 I I,668-2,610 Logs (meranti) $1m Logs (sapelli) $1m3 298: Sawnwood $/m , ,350 Copper 2,063-2,397 I,659-2,541 I,465--2,495 I,570--3,138 Tin A<g Nickel 5,598-6,538 5,694-7,766 5,620-8,472 6,553-12,886 AJuminum I,370--1,450 1,440-1,750 I,420--1,880 I,300--2, Lead Zinc 863-1, , , ,9 Iron ore Bauxite Gold $/toz Silver /toz Phosphate rock Urea TSP DAP Potassium chloride Note: Forecast as of October 14, 14. Source: World Bank, lntemational Economics Department, Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit 38 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
6 TABLE A7. RECENT COMMODITY PRICES Beverages Cocoa Coffee Robusta Brazilia Other mild arabicas Tea Grains Rice Grain sorghum Maize Wheat Canada us Meat Beef Lamb Fruits Bananas Oranges Palm oil Coconut oil Groundnut oil Soybean oi~ Soybeans Copra Groundnut meal Soybean meal Fisheries Shrimp" Fish meal' Fibers Cotton A index us Jute Sisal" Wool' Sugar Rubber us Singapore Unit $t1<g Copper Tin Nickel LME Free marl<et" Aluminum LME Free marl<et" Lead Silver" Gold!" Zinc us LME lnon ore NOVEMBER 1 4 /toz $/toz Annual averages jan-dec jan-dec joo--sep i n , I,095.3 I, I, , , , , , , , , ,5.8 I, , , , I,361.4 I, Q.Jorterly averages )ui-sep Oct-Dec )orr-mar Apr--jun )ui-sep 13 /3 14 /4 / I, , , I,098.3 I, I, I,293.4 I, I,912.2 I,666.9 I, ,.2 2, , , , ,9 6, I , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ju/ 14 Monthty averages Aug /4 Sep 14 I 55.2 I , , , I,386.7 I,413.7 I, O.<Jb < 427.9< , , , I , , , , , , I, , I,455.4 I, , , (table continued on next page) 39
7 TABLE A7. RECENT COMMODITY PRICES (CONTINUED) Annual averages Q);arterly averages Monthly averages jan--dec jan-dec jan-sep jui-sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-jun jui-sep jut Aug Sep Commodif Unit /3 /3 /4 /3 /4 /4 /4 /4 Steel Rebar' Merch bar Wire rod' Section' Plate' H.r. coilsheet" C.r. coilsheet" Galvan. sheet' Crude oil Official' $A:>bl Spot' $A:>bl Coal Australia us Logs Cameroon $/ml Malaysiab $/ml Sawnwood Malaysiab $Jml Ghana $Jml Plywood' ~Ish Wood pulp' Phosphate rock Urea Qd 149.Qd 163.Qd TSP' DAP' Potassium chloride' Selected price indices ( 10= I 00) Agricultural food Agricultural nonfood Agricultural timberb (exd. steel) Steel products selected commodities ( exd. petroleum and steel) J Note: Prices as of October 5, 14. a. Not included in index. b. No quotation. c. Averw,e for less than period indicated. d. Estimate. Source: World Bank, International Economics Department, Commodity Policy Analysis Unit 40 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
34 COMMODITY MARKETS AND THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES COMMODITY PRICE OUTLOOK
TABLE Al. COMMODITY PRICES AND PRICE PROJECTIONS IN CONSTANT 1990 DOLLARS Short-term Long-term Actual projections projections Commodity Unit 1970 1980 1985 /990 /992 1993 1994 /995 1996 1997 1998 2000
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