Applied Solar Expertise

Transcription

1 Applied Solar Expertise PV Solar Electricity: Status Challenges the Bright Future SINGULUS Technologies: review on optical disc, blue ray and solar 29 th November, 2011 (Kahl) Dr. Winfried Hoffmann ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

2 1. EPIA is the worlds biggest PV only oriented industrial association with currently over 200 members 2. The membership represents # the global PV industry # the complete value chain (material production, equipment manufacturing, component production, system integration, R&D institutes etc) # many national PV associations 2 2

3 EREC European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors: AEBIOM European Biomass Association EBB European Biodiesel Board EBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association EGEC European Geothermal Energy Council EPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association ESHA European Small Hydropower Association ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation EUBIA European Biomass Industry Association EWEA European Wind Energy Association EUREC Agency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency Associate members: EU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association EREF European Renewable Energy Federation ESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - challenges - the bright future Representation of European RES industry, trade & research 3

4 Content Status: Photovoltaic market and generation cost: past and near future; The power of Price Experience Curves for PV modules and relevant Thin Film Technologies Challenges: overcapacity price pressure - consolidation The Bright Future: Long term perspective towards 100% global energy supply by Renewables with PV playing an increasingly important role Source: Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - challenges - the bright future

5 PV Solar serving a Multitude of Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m ² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 5

6 The market in 2010 >130% ~ % +145% % Paris, 6 th Market Workshop, 18 March

7 The top 10 in 2009 and 2010 (MW) worlwide Germany Germany Italy 723 Italy Japan 483 Czech Rep USA 477 Japan Czech Rep 398 USA Belgium 285 France China Spain France 185 Belgium South Korea 167 Australia Australia 79 China Paris, 6 th Market Workshop, 18 March

8 Cumulated installed capacity until GW PV = 30 x 1.3 GW NPS (important for summer peak power) 39.6 GW ~15 TWh (Ger) + ~35 TWh (RoW) =~ energy output of ~ 6 NPS Paris, 6 th Market Workshop, 18 March

9 Market allocation versus regional production of PV modules [GW] % % % Source: EPIA, Navigant Consulting (Paula Mints) 9

10 An outlook to GW GW NORTH AM Japan EU China APEC ROW EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy Driven 2011 Paris, 6 th Market Workshop, 18 March

11 Historical and next 5 year PV market growth (bottom-up) [MW] Average growth % p.a.!! Historical Data EPIA Policy Driven 20% pa EPIA Moderate 6% pa Source: EPIA market workshop, Paris, 2011 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status challenges - the bright future

12 Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates,

13 ASP in $/W Photovoltaic Price Experience Curve Driven by Technology Thin Film PEF 20% Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm Efficiency 8% 22% Automation Industrial manufacturing source: NAVIGANT 1 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW 13

14 Looking ahead using PEC s Probability for further continuation of PV PEC by analogy with similar technologies Arguments for different PEC s for c-si wafer based and Thin- Film products For a future cumulated volume one has to assume a growth rate Source: Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - challenges - the bright future

15 Relative Costs [%] Display Substrate Area [m2] 2.2 meters Display Experience Curve Driven by Technology 100% ,0 TV announced 10,0 Desktop 10% PEF 35% Laptop 1,0 Gen meters Gen 6 Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters Gen 5 Gen 4 Gen 3.5 Gen 3 Gen 2.5 Gen 2 Gen 2.5 Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 7 1% Cumulated Display Area [million m2] 0,1 370 x 470mm 2.6 meters 6 up 6 up x 37 wide 19 ~ 24 6 up x 52 wide 6 up 4 up 6 up 15 ~ Jan Jan Jan Jan-05 Jan Jan Years Source: Applied Materials, Display Group,

16 PV Value Chains 16

17 Thin Film PV Value Chain Same/similar process steps with same/similar cost / m² Large glass (or flexible) Substrate ( m 2 ) PVD TCO Laser Patterning Absorber Laser Patterning PVD Back Contact Laser Patterning Module Finish Installation Thin Film Silicon PECVD a-si and µc-si ( ) CIGS co-evaporation ( ) Sputtering and selenization ( ) CdTe/CdS close space sublimation ( ) Different processes and material cost for absorber formation 17

18 Flexible Solar Expanding Applications SonnenEnergieWinnen Flexcell Uni-Solar Maier Sports Flexcell PowerFilm Flickr Photo Saaku ISS Lightweight Conformable Building Integrated PV Non-Rigid Applications Source: As indicated _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit 18

19 Flexible PV Technologies Flex PV Thin Film Silicon TRANSPARENT CONDUCTOR ABSORBER LAYER Back Contact CIGS TCO BACK CONTACT FLEXIBLE SUBSTRATE CdTe Source: Common equipment solutions drive costs down for all players _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit 19

20 SET For 2020 PV penetration in EU - a top-down approach Cumulative Volume (GW) GW Indicative Share of e-demand by 2020 in EU Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% (~ 400 GW) Accelerated Scenario: 6% (~ 200 GW) Baseline Scenario: 4% (~ 130 GW)

21 Worldwide annual PV installations in GWp PV Future Eight Cases Evaluation Cases Volume Scenarios Volume Growth Baseline Paradigm Shift 200 PV Volume Scenarios Source: EPIA, Set for 2020 TF Share 15% 15% 35% 15% 15% 35% 150 Baseline Paradigm Shift 100 TF PEF 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25% 20% 25% 50 Case Years A B 21

22 ASP in in $/W Photovoltaic Future Price Development PEC Scenario 10,0 Case A: Baseline TF share 15% const TF PEF 20% Case B:Paradigm Shift TF share 15% 35% TF PEF 25% 1,0 Case A B csi 20% c-si Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w Case A TF 20% Case B TF 25% 0,1 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 MW accumulated Thin Film Technology price expectation in 2020 ca $ct/w 22

23 Module price (rel. Units) Technology Evolution r ribbon mg metallurgical grade Silicon mc multicrystalline TF a-si-pin a-si-pin/pin, II-VI c-si mc r/mg Cz Si III -V ~ (4 to 5) years * Cz Czochralski CPV concentrated PV OPV organic PV mc r/mg a-si/µc-si, II-VI dye a-si-pin Cz + (10 to 13) years * Beyond 20 - (8 to 10) % price decrease per year Source: 0 W. Hoffmann, personal estimates (2000/2010) OPV _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit Module 30 Efficiency [%] 23

24 Share of PV Technologies 100% 80% 60% 40% New Technologies TF csi TF like c-si (TFX) 20% 0% Source: W. Hoffmann, personal estimates, (2008/2011) _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit 24

25 ASP in in $/W PEC for c-si, Thin Film and tentative New Technologies 2010 to ,0 1,0 Case A B csi 20% New Technologies (high eff)?? Case A TF 20% Case New B TF 25% Technologies (low eff)?? TF C-Si 0,1 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 MW accumulated Source: Winfried Hoffmann, own estimates (06/2011) _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit 25

26 PV Value Chain: crystalline Silicon (left) and Thin Film (right) as Marimekko plot Source: _Winfried Hoffmann_Solar Summit 26

27 Extrapolation from Marimekko 2010 to 2020 year TF efficiency 12% 12/16 = % MM 10 [%] [ /W] [ /W] [%] Module PEC TF Inverter PEC BOS Eff. Factor Installation Eff. Factor total

28 Extrapolation from Marimekko 2010 to 2020 year C-Si efficiency 15% 15/20 = % MM 10 [%] [ /W] [ /W] [%] Module PEC c-si Inverter PEC BOS Eff. Factor Installation Eff. Factor total

29 From PV module to PV system PV modules PV inverter Balance of system Installation 50-60% 8-9% 12-16% 35-47% 7-8% 17-22% % %

30 Challenges Exceptionel growth ( with 51% p.a.) resulted in 2010/2011 in substantial overcapacity (production capacity ~ 40 ~ 20 GW market) Module prices are undershooting the PEC many companies show losses As the market shows in 2011 only a small growth there is further price pressure leading to consolidation in the sector In particular equipment suppliers have to wait for the next market uptake take advantage to sell upgrades for module differentiation Source: Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - challenges - the bright future 30

31 Primary Energy Need in 2100 Extrapolation with today's technologies and energy sources 2100 Assuming energy saving, Shift to electricity and consequent use of renewables TWh Authors estimate (2010) TWh Schmid & Sterner (2010) TWh TWh TWh TWh ref.: World Energy Council & W. Hoffmann personal estimates Same quality of life with much less energy 31

32 32 Energy Resources In a Comparison Worldwide energy offer and consumption in comparison Required solar areas to cover electricity consumption

33 Annual PV Growth Rate Cumulated Cummulated PV Power PV Power [GW] [GW] Yearly Yeary Installed installed PV PV Power [GW] RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth Rate PV Volume Growth 50% CAGR : 45% % % % % % Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010 and own estimates Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010 and own estimates 33

34 in TWh / a RES-thinking 2050 World PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth Assumption for Total electricity production 10% of total 1% of total PV electricity production EU % target for RES of final energy All RES sources to contribute 43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario) World (OECD) 80% target for RES of final energy 43% electricity share assumed, too PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates 34

35 IEA PV Roadmap Vision ETP 2010 Hi-RE Scenario PV cumulative installed capacity to reach 900 GW in 2030 and 3000 GW in 2050

36 Cumulative PV installations and future electricity production at different growth rates V 1 V 2 V 3 V 4 Decade % growth per annum Cum. 1,000 GW ,000 TWh in 2050 at 1.3 kwh/w (average)

37 Scenarios for future worldwide secondary energy needs in 1,000 TWh after Needed PV electricity (1,000 TWh) at assumed 15% participation ( and corresponding growth version) ~ V 1 ~ V 2 ~ V 3 ~ V 4 Most probable range 37

38 Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage RES share in % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non RES Other RES Bio Mass Wind STC Solar Thermie PV 0% Towards 2050 Towards 2100 ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/

39 Development of the various energy sectors 200,000 TWh (secondary energy) 100,000 TWh (secondary energy) Power&heat mobility electricity Power&heat Non-e-mobility Electricity (incl. E-mobility) Year 2000 Year Source: Winfried Hoffmann, Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - challenges - the bright future 39

40 Source: Solar Millennium AG, Erlangen The World Wide Super Grid Electricity wind off-/ on shore Solar Thermal Power Plant PV Solar Electricity Other Renewables Super Grid EUMENA Super Grid NAFTA Super Grid ASIA Super Grid AUSTRALIA Super Grid WORLD WIDE Biofuel/Hydrogen for Transportation Solar Thermal for heating and cooling Source: : W. Hoffmann Dr. Winfried Hoffmann PV Solar Electricity: status - 40 challenges - the bright future

41 Applied Solar Expertise Thank you very much! Dr. Winfried Hoffmann ASE Vice President EPIA Consultant Applied Materials Solar Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz