NORTH KOREA SUNSHINE AFTER ETERNAL REIGN?

Transcription

1 NORTH KOREA SUNSHINE AFTER ETERNAL REIGN?

2 POLITICS IN THE DPRK Kim Il-sung ( ) [Kim Il-seong] Kim Jong-il ( ) [Kim Jeong-il]

3 IT S ALL ABOUT FAMILY Kim Jong-nam (son of Song Hye-rim) and the fall from grace (2001) Kim Jong-chul (elder son of Ko Yong-hui) Kim Jong-un (younger son of Ko Yong-hui)

4 THE RISE OF KIM JONG-UN Military factions The need to display leadership Cementing dominance DECEMBER 2011-

5 THE CASE OF JANG SONG-TAEK Uncle of Kim Jong-un Threat to power? Factions and purges EXEC. JANUARY 2014

6 THE ASSASSINATION OF KIM JONG-NAM February 13, 2017 Kuala Lumpur Int l Airport VX nerve agent The LOL assassin and the diplomatic standoff

7 WHO DOES THIS? Ministry of State Security: monitors at home and abroad Supreme Guard Command: NK s very secret service Reconnaissance General Bureau: intelligence gathering and foreign operatives Third Floor: NK s inner circle CIA

8 JUCHE The official ideology of North Korea [JUCHE SASANG]

9 THE JUCHE IDEOLOGY Self-reliance and independence: politics, economy, and defense Country and self as one unit April 15, 1912: Juche 1

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12 KIM JONG-IL: THE MASTER ENGINEER

13 LONG LIVE THE SUPREME JUCHE IDEA!

14 MILITARY FIRST Military first = seongun [ ] Military as basis for defense, politics, economy Defending the Juche Idea since 1994

15 THE BEGINNING OF CHANGE? Famine in 1995 Refugee crisis Rumors of marketization ITALIAN RESTAURANT, PYONGYANG (OPENED 2009)

16 NORTH KOREA S ECONOMY Import versus export Drugs Superdollars Labor (export) SUPERDOLLARS

17 NORTH KOREA AND THE WORLD

18 FIRST PHASE From : militarized coexistence Hostile rhetoric and action Peace and security in a Cold War paradigm

19 SECOND PHASE From : democratization (in SK) and de-escalation of hostility Basic Agreement (1991) In 1994 Kim Young-sam fails to send condolences on death of Kim Il-sung Agreed Framework (1994)

20 ARIRANG GAMES, PYONGYANG KIM IL-SUNG: THE SUN THAT CARRIES ON

21 THIRD PHASE From : internationalization and move toward the Sunshine Policy Kim Dae-Jung as president ( ) In 1998, creation of the Ministry of Unification [tongil bu ] Naval skirmishes in June 1999 and June 2002

22 FIRST INTER-KOREAN SUMMIT June 2000: Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il August 2000: first family reunifications Negotiations begin for Kaeseong Industrial Complex January 2002: Bush s Axis of Evil speech

23 DIFFERENCES SOUTH KOREA PLAN NORTH KOREA PLAN 1. TWO UN SEATS 2. INSTITUTIONS MAPPED OUT BEFORE UNIFICATION 3. ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES 4. DUAL AND SIMULTANEOUS LEADERSHIP 1. ONE UN SEAT 2. INSTITUTIONS MAPPED OUT AFTER UNIFICATION 3. APPOINTED REPRESENTATIVES 4. ROTATING LEADERSHIP BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH

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26 END OF THIRD PHASE July 2006: test of Taepodong-2 missile August 2006: nuclear tests

27 TRANSITION From 2006-present, resultsoriented approach and mutual mistrust Second Inter-Korean Summit (October 2007): Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Jong-il Six-party talks Election of Lee Myung-bak (December 2007)

28 RISING TENSIONS: FOURTH PHASE Missile test in North Korea: April 2009 Sinking of the Cheonan (March 2010) Shelling of Yeonpyeong (November 2010) Nuclear test (February 2013) Pres. Park Geun-hye (Feb. 2013) YEONPYEONG, 23 NOVEMBER 2010

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30 RISING TENSIONS: CURRENT PHASE Moon Jae-In (May 2017) Rocket Man New wave of Sunshine? Hyon Song-Wol in pre-olympic meetings Kim Yo-Jong to the Olympics MOON JAE-IN WITH KIM YO-JONG

31 NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMACY Joins the UN in 1991 Minimal foreign presence The tantrum state No soft power MORANBONG BAND: NK-POP?

32 MORANBONG BAND, PAEUJA [ ](LET S LEARN)

33 NUCLEAR CRISIS: MATERIAL AND KNOW-HOW Reactor at Yongbyon Agreed Framework (1994) collapses 2002 Six-party talks collapse (2009) Uranium mines Technology from Pakistan (AQ Khan network) Highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium

34 NUCLEAR CRISIS: MISSILES Missile tests nearly every year since 2006 Successful miniaturization of nuclear warheads Re-entry technology is elusive Taepodong-2 (three-stage, long-range ICBM) Hwasong-15: tested November 2017 PUKGUKSEONG-2 TEST: FEBRUARY 13, 2017

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37 NUCLEAR CRISIS: ARSENAL First test 2006 (plutonium, underground) Additional tests 2009, 2013 January and September 2016: inching toward a Hydrogen bomb? Estimates: 6-10 warheads

38 NORTH KOREA S NUCLEAR TESTS

39 NORTH KOREA S DREAM VIDEO (2013)

40 IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: CHINA Controlling access to North Korea North Korea as buffer zone Supporting and containing North Korea Impatience with Kim Jong-un

41 THEN THIS HAPPENED

42 IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: RUSSIA North Korean workers in Russia Russian infrastructure development Kim Jong-un s counterweight to China Russia countermoves to China NORTH KOREAN WORKERS: VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA

43 IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: JAPAN North Koreans in Japan Historical animosity The abductions issue Japan-US relations Japan-South Korea relations CHONGRYEON: TOKYO, JAPAN

44 THE AMAZING STORY OF CHARLES JENKINS

45 IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: SOUTH KOREA US troops in South Korea The success of South Korea The grim reality of unification The short distance to Seoul DMZ: THE WEIRDEST NATURE PRESERVE IN THE WORLD

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48 IMAGES OF NORTH KOREA

49 A VILLAGE NORTH OF PYONGYANG POSTER NORTH OF PYONGYANG: JUCHE ESSENCE, PEOPLE S ESENCE

50 FLOWERS AND CONCRETE

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54 RYUGYONG HOTEL: STARTED IN 1987

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61 THE PYONGYANG METRO

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