Situation of Power System Flexibility ~ Thermal Power Generation's Effort

Transcription

1 年 XX 月禁無断転載 Situation of Power System Flexibility ~ Thermal Power Generation's Effort Junichi Ogasawara Senior Economist, Manager, Electric Power Group, Assistant Director, Electric Power Industry & New and Renewable Energy Unit, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)

2 Assessment of flexible generation according to dimensions of flexibility Firm RE Dispatchable non-re Technology Mini stable output (%) Ramp rate (%/min) Lead time, warm (h) Reservoir hydro <.1 Solid biomass Solar CSP/STE Biogas Geothermal Combustion engine bank CC Gas CCGT inflexible Gas CCGT flexible Gas OCGT Steam turbine (gas/oil) Coal inflexible Coal flexible Lignite Nuclear inflexible 1 Na Nuclear flexible Na Source : IEA, The Power of Transformation: Wind, Sun and the Economics of Flexible Power Systems, 214 1

3 1. Europe Situation (1)Renewable Energy in EU28 In 216 renewable energy represented 17% of energy consumed in the EU, on a path to the 22 target of 2%. In 216, electricity generation from renewable sources contributed more than one quarter (29.6 %) to total EU-28 gross electricity consumption. Electricity MTOE MTOE 9 3% 2 Final Energy Consumption 18% % 2 2% 2% 1 1% 1 1% % % 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Hydro Wind Solar Solid biofuels Electricity Heating and cooling All other renewables RES-E(%) Transport RES(%) Source: Eurostat 2

4 1. Europe Situation (2) Future generation capacity 2, 2, 1, 1, TYNDP Generation Capacity Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar Other RES Sustainable Transition (ST): Targets reached through national regulation, emission trading schemes and subsidies, maximizing the use of existing infrastructure. Distributed Generation (DG) : Prosumers at the center smallscale generation, batteries and fuel switching society engaged and empowered. Global Climate Action (GCA): Full speed global de-carbonisation, largescale renewables development in both electricity and gas sectors. EUCO 3 (EUCO): EUCO 3 is a core policy scenario produced by the European Commission. Source: ENTSO-E TYNDP 218 3

5 1. Europe Situation (3) Transmission investment Even if local generation, demand response, storage and energy efficiency will play an increasing role, the studies show that an extension of the current grid is needed to allow the shift of large quantities of renewables to the main consumption centers. The TYNDP 216 foresees around 1 billion euros of investments in grid infrastructure supporting 2 projects in transmission and storage. Source: ENTSO-E, TYNDP216 4

6 1. Europe Situation (4) Spark and dark spreads in GB 27/1 28/ 28/12 29/7 21/2 21/9 211/4 211/11 212/6 213/1 213/8 214/3 214/1 21/ 21/12 216/7 217/2 217/ /MWh 12 Spark and dark spreads (GB) /MWh 1 Spark and dark spreads (Fuel Price) 1 8 Carbon Floor Price Spark (low eff) Spark (high eff) Power price (baseload) Spark Dark Coal Gas4% Gas% Gas6% Base Price Source: OFGEM, Data Portal Source: BEIS, prices of fuel purchased by electricity generators

7 1. Europe Situation () Germany 217/12/23~2:1Hertz & TenneT Hertz TenneT /23 12/24 12/2 12/23 12/24 12/2 Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Wind Solar Other RES Other Net import Demand Net load Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Wind Solar Other RES Other Net import Demand Net load Source: ENTSO-E, Transparency Platform 6

8 1. Europe Situation () Germany 217/12/23~2 : 2Amprion & Transnet BW 2 Amprion 8 Transnet BW /23 12/24 12/2 12/23 12/24 12/2 Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Wind Solar Other RES Other Net import Demand Net load Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Wind Solar Other RES Other Net import Demand Net load Source: ENTSO-E, Transparency Platform 7

9 1. Europe Situation () Germany 217/12/23~2: 3Generation output without RES Generations without RES Generations without RES /23 12/24 12/2 12/23 12/24 12/2 Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Source: ENTSO-E, Transparency Platform 8

10 1. Europe Situation (6)Common platform for balancing market Commission Regulation (EU) 217/219 of 23 November 217 establishing a guideline on electricity balancing require to establish common platform for Balancing markets until 22. FCR(Frequency Containment Reserve)=Primary reserve afrr(frequency Restoration Reserves with Automatic activation)=secondary reserve mfrr (Frequency Restoration Reserves with Manual activation)=tertiary reserve RR(Replacement Reserve)=Slow mfrr FCR afrr mfrr RR Full Activation Time 3 sec min~1min 12.min 3min Tender Gate day-ahead 1 week ahead (weekly) and before 6min(daily) Under discussion Under discussion Tender gate close Day-ahead 8: Before 3min~4min Before 2min~3min Before 6min Tender results Day-ahead 8:3 Before 1min~3min Before 7.min~1min Before 3min~4min Commitment period 4hr(-4h 4-8h 8-12h 12-16h 16-2h 2-24h) 1min 1min(min~2min from FAT) 1min(1min~6min from FAT) Price formation Zonal marginal pricing Zonal marginal pricing Zonal marginal pricing Zonal marginal pricing Interconnection capacity allocation Under discussion ATC Under discussion ATC Internal congestion No No Consideration No 9

11 2. USA Situation (1)Retired Generation Coal.3 Gas 3. Nuclear 4.8 Planned 1 1 Nuclear Hydro Coal Gas Other thermal Renewable Other Source: EIA, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory 1

12 2. USA Situation (2)Fuel Cost and Spot Price 2/1 2/9 21/ 22/1 22/9 23/ 24/1 24/9 2/ 26/1 26/9 27/ 28/1 28/9 29/ 21/1 21/9 211/ 212/1 212/9 213/ 214/1 214/9 21/ 216/1 216/9 217/ 218/1 $/MWh Coal fuel cost(3%) Gas fuel cost(%) PJM East Source: EIA, Cost of fossil-fuel receipts at electric generating plants and PJM RTO, Data Miner 2 11

13 2. USA Situation (3) Natural gas generation dependency NERC has identified that reliance on a single fuel increases vulnerabilities, particularly during extreme weather conditions. Natural gas provides just-in-time fuel and is not stored on site at generators. Maintaining firm transportation and dual fuel capability can significantly reduce the risk of interruption, common-mode failure, and widespread fuel delivery impacts. As natural-gas-fired generation continues to increase, the electric industry needs to continue to evaluate and report on the potential effects of an increased reliance on natural gas needed to assure BPS reliability and resilience. 218(MW) 222(MW) 218(%) 222(%) FRCC 39,976 42,3 7.% 78.1% WECC-CAMX 4,299 42,36 6.6% 68.2% Texas RE-ERCOT 4,842 1, % 63.3% NPCC-New England 14,331 16, % 2.3% WECC-SRSG 16,3 16, % 1.8% WECC-AB 8,14 8,14 49.% 1.8% SERC-SE 3,26 3, % 46.9% MRO-SaskPower 1,83 2, % 44.% SPP 3,413 29, % 4.2% SERC-N 19,2 21,16 37.% 4.7% MISO 9,66 6, % 42.3% NPCC-New York 16,3 16,78 44.% 42.% Source: NERC, 217 Long-Term Reliability Assessment NERC, 217 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Resilience problem Should coal fired power plants and nuclear power plants be maintained? 12

14 2. USA Situation (4) Fuel security From Dec. 28, 217, to Jan. 7, 218, PJM experienced one of our top 1 winter peak demand days of all time. Due to the cold weather during this period, PJM experienced a large drop in supply capacity Outages by Fuel Type, Jan. 3 Jan. 7, 218, Peak Forced Outages Due to Fuel Supply Issue, by Fuel Type 7 6 Gas supply issues include transportation restrictions and interruptions as well as spot gas commodity availability /3 1/4 1/ 1/ 1/6 1/ Coal Gas supply Gas plant Oil Other 1/3 1/4 1/ 1/ 1/6 1/7 Coal supply Gas supply Other supply Source: PJM, PJM Cold Snap Performance Dec. 28, 217 to Jan. 7, 218, Feb

15 2. USA Situation () Wind and PV Wind Wind h(216) 1.Texas 7,31 2.Iowa 2,72 3.Oklahoma 2,69 4.Kansas 14,111.California 13,9 6.Illinois 1,663 7.Minnesota 9,933 8.Colorado 9,421 9.North Dakota 8,172 1.Washington 8,42 PV PV h(216) 1.California 2, Arizona 4,72 3.North Carolina 3,88 4.Nevada 3,22.New Jersey 2,22 6.Massachusetts 1,863 7.Utah 1,24 8.Texas 1,122 9.Georgia 1,76 1.New York 1,13 14

16 2. USA Situation (6) MISO Energy (North Area) 217/12/1~7 2 High share of wind power generation 8% % 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% /1 12/2 12/3 12/4 12/ 12/6 12/7 % Net import Wind Other Gas Coal Hydeo Nuclear Demand Net load Wind share Source :MISO Energy 1

17 3. Hight renewable penetration and Coal generation (1) System operability: Planning stage Hight Renewable energy penetration will create some problems. System inertia: A reduction in large conventional generators will reduce system inertia which increases the magnitude of frequency excursions. Voltage support: Additional dynamic reactive power is required to complement the dynamic overload capabilities provided by synchronous generators. Invisible generation: An increasing proportion of total generation output is not visible to the system operator as small-scale generation grows. This increases uncertainty in whole system operability requirements. Active network management(anm): The assessment investigates the likelihood of ANM schemes being implemented to resolve constraints within the distribution networks in future years. National Grid UK, System Operability Framework

18 3. Hight renewable penetration and Coal generation (2) Market and Lookahead horizon : Operating stage Procedure Frequency and Lookahead horizon Advisory or actual commitment/dispatch? CAISO Short-term unit commitment -every hour, with a 4 hour look-ahead Actual & Advisory Real-time Unit Commitment -every 1 minutes, with a 6-1 minute look-ahead Actual & Advisory Real-time Economic Dispatch -every minutes, with lookahead of approximately 6 Minutes ISONE Additional RAAs -as necessary, with a lookahead for the balance of the operating day Actual Advisory Unit Dispatch Software -every minutes Actual MISO Intraday RAC -as necessary, with a lookahead for the balance of the operating day Advisory Look-ahead Commitment -every 1 minutes, with a 3 hour look-ahead Advisory Real-time SCED every minutes Actual NYISO Real-time Commitment -every 1 minutes, with a 2 hour and 3 minute lookahead Actual & Advisory Real-time Dispatch -every minutes, with a 6 minute look-ahead Actual & Advisory PJM Intermediate-Term SCED -every minutes, with a 2 hour look ahead Advisory Real-time SCED -every minutes Actual SPP Intra-day RUC -as necessary, with a lookahead for the balance of the operating day Look-ahead SCED -every minutes, with a look-ahead several periods beyond the current interval Advisory Advisory Real-Time Dispatch -every minutes Actual Note: RAA:Reserve Adequacy Analysis RAC: Reliability Assessment Commitment Process SCED:security constrained economic dispatch RUC:Reliability Unit Commitment Source: FERC, Staff Analysis of Operator Initiated Commitments in RTO and ISO Markets, December

19 1999/1 3. Hight renewable penetration and Coal generation (3) Spot price in main countries 1999/8 2/3 2/1 21/ 21/12 22/7 23/2 23/9 24/4 24/11 2/6 26/1 26/8 27/3 27/1 28/ 28/12 29/7 21/2 21/9 211/4 211/11 212/6 213/1 213/8 214/3 214/1 21/ 21/12 216/7 217/2 217/9 US Cent/kWh JEPX(Japan) KPX-SMP(Korea) Australia NSW PJMEast(USA) NYISO(USA) Nord Pool(North Europe) EEX(Germany) Pool N2EX(UK) Source: IEEJ 18