Are we ready to jump back in the pool? Prospects for Carpooling and Ridesharing in the Years Ahead

Transcription

1 Are we ready to jump back in the pool? Prospects for Carpooling and Ridesharing in the Years Ahead Brian D. Taylor, FAICP Professor of Urban Planning Director, Institute of Transportation Studies Director, Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs

2 This is shared mobility, right?

3 Shared Mobility People with many different origins and destinations Coming together for at least part of their trip Sharing the same piece of transportation infrastructure

4 How about this?

5 Shared Mobility People with many different origins and destinations Coming together for at least part of their trip Sharing the same piece of transportation infrastructure

6 So what s shared about shared mobility? Share the same right of way? Subways, freeways? Share the same terminal? Airport terminal, parking lot? Share the same vehicle? Serially? Simultaneously? With friends and family? With strangers?

7 What are the benefits of shared mobility? Energy and environmental benefits Transportation system efficiency benefits Affordability mobility benefits

8 First the good news Carpooled to or from work 1980 = 20% Commuted by means other than driving alone 1980 = 36% Source: Steven Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek (2015). Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 6.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

9 Now the not so good news Carpooled to or from work 1980 = 20% and after the rise of the shared economy and shared mobility 2015 = 9% Commuted by means other than driving alone 1980 = 36% 2015 = 23%

10 National shared mobility commuting trends

11 Recent California Transit Patronage Trends Most ridership losses have been on the largest SoCal operators

12 Why is transit use declining the midst of a transit service building boom? It s complicated

13 Why is transit use declining the midst of a transit service building boom? It s complicated, but

14 The biggest factor (This research is still in progress) Increased motor vehicle ownership and use in low income and immigrant households Following a period of reduced immigration and economic recovery from the Great Recession This demographic has traditionally been transit s most frequent and reliable passengers Evidence: Patronage down the most on many of the highest volume routes in low income and immigrant areas

15 So is shared mobility dying?

16 So is shared mobility dying? Maybe, but it certainly doesn t have to whither There are lots of developments on the horizon that point to a potentially increased role for ridesharing But this is unlikely to happen as a matter of course

17 To answer this question, let s think about the transportation problem as an information problem What do I want to do? Trip purpose (Trip generation) Where might I go? Mapping opportunities (Trip distribution) How might I get there? Knowledge of travel options (Mode choice) When and where should I travel? Activity sequencing and path analyses (Traffic assignment)

18 How does sharing mobility complicate this already complicated set of nested decisions? In 1917, with essentially no information technology? Hitchhiking, streetcars, and taxis In 2017, with lots of information technology Hitchhiking, light rail, taxis, buses, carshare, bikeshare, TNCs

19 The shared mobility information problem When do I want to go? Is anyone else going at that time? Where do I want to go? Is anyone else going there? By what means do I want to go? Is that service available? By what route will I travel? Where do I start and end my journey? This all requires A LOT of coordination

20 In addition to all of this coordination, Trust, Terms, and Transactions are critical as well

21 Getting a ride from someone else requires lots of information Coordination When/where will the rider & driver meet up, where will they go? Negotiation Can the rider & driver agree on terms? Trust Will the rider and driver be safe sharing a ride? Source: Michael Manville

22 The Evolution of Shared Mobility Hitchhiking High information costs across the board Public transit Information costs lowered dramatically, but at the substantial cost of flexibility Street Hail Taxis Reduced upfront information costs, imposed higher prices on riders Dispatch taxis Information costs fell for riders, but required large upfront costs for drivers/firms TNCs Information costs fell significantly for both drivers and riders Source: Michael Manville

23 So what exactly are transportation network companies?

24 The classically described triad of any transportation system 1. Vehicles 2. Terminals 3. Way

25 Air Travel? 1. Vehicles Airplanes 2. Terminals Airports 3. Way Air traffic controlled skies

26 Transportation Network Companies? 1. Vehicles Millions of privately owned autos shifted into commercial service 2. Terminals Parking 3. Way Streets and roads

27 No cars, no terminals, no way What parts of this system do TNCs own? 1. Vehicles no 2. Terminals no 3. Way no 4. Information? yes

28 No cars, no terminals, no way 1. Vehicles Owned by drivers 2. Terminals Publicly provided 3. Way Publicly provided 4. Information may be the key to the future of shared mobility Requires all drivers and customers to have high powered, high capacity mobile information and communication devices, supported by enormous communications networks with near universal coverage Matches and payments controlled by TNCs

29 A shared revival? Travelers trade off the transactions costs of sharing with the monetary costs of travel Only time will tell whether solving the information problem will result in TNCs and other shared ride platforms operating at scale to turn the tide on the decline of shared mobility

30 Finally, what about the other two Rs?

31 Two disparate visions of the future electric and autonomous mobility Tesla versus Waymo

32 A really, really nice $90,000 car ($110,000 nicely equipped)

33 Global median income per capita in 2013?

34 Global median income per capita in 2013 $2,920 Source: Gallup

35 Affordable mobility The vast majority of travelers will never come close to affording a Tesla Model S Traditional fixed route, fixed schedule transit service cannot serve the needs all of these non Tesla drivers Many of them may be able to afford subscription shared, electric, autonomous mobility service

36 An relatively low cost subscription to modest shared ride mobility

37 Promise for a more shared mobility future? Is this the Question? Are people really going to give up their cars and share auto trips with others, Or will they own their autonomous vehicles to keep all of that privacy, their stuff in the trunk, great sound system, and temperature just they way they like it?

38 Promise for a more shared mobility future? Or is this the question? Given the modest means of a growing share of people in both the developed and developing world Will people increasingly seek to buy their automobility via subscription or a trip at a time, because most of them won t be able to afford their own car autonomous or not?

39 Thank you Questions? Comments? Brian D. Taylor, FAICP Professor of Urban Planning Director, Institute of Transportation Studies Director, Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs