The Missing Piece to the Home Automation Puzzle. by Ralph E. Abbott, SAIC

Transcription

1 The Missing Piece to the Home Automation Puzzle by Ralph E. Abbott, SAIC

2 Can we deliver what we promised? Looking back 10 years to 2001: Blackouts in California at huge cost! NIMBY pushback on generation and transmission challenge supply-side options. Alternative is to explore demand-side options. PUC directs IOUs to create/submit Smart Meter system to support Demand Response. PG&E, SDG&E, SCE submit in NIMBY = Not in My Backyard PUC = California Public Utilities Commission IOU = Investor Owned Utility PG&E = California Power Gas & Electric SDG&E = San Diego Gas and Electric SCE = Southern California Edison

3 When AMI Benefits Don t Equal Costs You need to find more benefits! How? First, harvest all the operational benefits. Next, project the demand response benefits. Then, pull in societal and unquantifiable benefits.

4 But When Benefits Don t Equal Costs What are the options? Demand Response GAP! Customer Benefits COST BENEFIT Quantified Operational Benefits Vendor Just do it!

5 Benefits of AMI Quantifiable Intangible New Revenue -Reduced Read-to-Pay Time -PBR Incentive Harvesting Reduced Outage Minutes Fewer Estimated Bills -New Customer Services Energy Information Services Selectable Bill Date Selectable Bill Frequency Bill Aggregation On-Demand Bill Customized Bill Meter Reading for Other Utilities Outage/Restoration Notification Analysis/Conservation Services Prepayment Service One Time & Short Term -Meter Accuracy Improved -Sale of used meters -Meter Changeout Ends -Tamper Detection & Correction Capital Reductions -Load Research Equip. -Meter Reader Vehicles -Optimal Transformer Sizing -Meter Inventory Reduced Expenses -Customer Service Bill Inquiries Reduced Faster Inquiry Resolution Customer Site Visits -Billing Reduced Manual Processing Fewer Estimated Bills Fewer Pre-bill Audits Reduced Postage -Metering & Reading On-Cycle Reads Off-Cycle Reads Meter Reader Safety, Liability Meter Reader Training Reduced Meter Testing Direct Access Settlement Load Research Metering -Distribution Operations Capacitor Control Outage Restoration Avoided Transformer Failures Avoided Losses -Reduced Non-Billable Consumption Tamper Deterred Unoccupied Premises -Electric System Optimization End of Line Voltage Feeder Load Balancing Power Factor Losses Customer Service Benefits -Diverse Customer Services -New Rates Possible -Increased Responsiveness to Customer -Less Intrusive to Customer -Power Quality Monitoring Strategic Benefits -Distribution Automation -Monitor/Manage Distributed Generation -Greater Approved Return -Improved Costs & Pricing Basis -Improved Load Forecasting & System Planning -Improved System Reliability -Market Segmentation & Targeting -Improved Public/Regulatory Relations -Improved Customer Satisfaction

6 Large Electric Investor Owned Utility Annual AMI Benefits ($ per meter) $0.99 $1.46 $0.43 $0.96 $0.99 $0.28 $0.16 $0.17 $7.97 Meter Reading Direct Load Control Field Service Orders Outage Restoration Energy Theft & Diversion Meter Accuracy & Registration Billing Workload Bad Debt Write-off $2.46 Improved Cash Flow Distribution Transformers Sample Test & Load Research $2.77 $2.92 Other Total Annual Benefit = $21.58 AMI = Advanced Metering Infrastructure

7 Medium Electric IOU (With load control of 15% of sites and service switches at 7% ofsites) Annual AMR Benefit ($/meter) $0.70 $0.69 $0.75 $0.88 $1.04 $1.16 $1.28 $1.79 $11.67 Manual Meter Reading Meter Accuracy Theft Losses Call Center Meter Changeout Deferred Service Hiatus Off Cycle Reads Service Disconnect Labor Manual Bill Processing Other $4.51 Total Annual Benefit = $24.46 IOU = Investor Owned Utility AMR = Automated Meter Reading

8 Small Gas and Electric IOU Annual AMR Benefit ($/meter) 9.25 Manual Meter Read Labor Tamper Detection On Demand Read Accuracy Meter Reader Vehicles Phase Detection Meter Reading Software Load Profile Reading On Demand Read Cancel Rebill Other 1.99 IOU = Investor Owned Utility AMR = Automated Meter Reading 2.65 Total Annual Benefit = $19.75/meter

9 Large Municipal Electric Utility Annual AMR Benefit ($/meter) $0.21 $0.96 $1.78 $2.79 $3.30 $3.66 $7.57 $5.60 Manual Meter Reading Revenue Recovery (tamper, errors, etc.) Manual Bill Processing Meter Accuracy Cash Flow Advance Moves - New Accounts & Meter Sets Account Control - Escrow Closing Bill Other AMR = Automated Meter Reading Total Annual Benefit = $25.87/meter

10 Large Municipal Electric And Water Utility $1.38 $0.58 $0.73 $0.79 $0.88 $0.92 $1.77 $2.20 $3.09 Annual AMR Benefit ($/meter) $14.99 Meter Accuracy (elec. & water) Meter Changeout Ends Manual Meter Reading Move In/Out Reads Correctly Meas. Demand Tamper & Theft Improved Distribution Operations Reduced Unbilled Consumption Rereads & Investigations OK on Arrival Other AMR = Automated Meter Reading $6.13 Total Annual Benefit = $33.46/meter

11 In the Mythical Perfect World Demand response will Fill the Gap because: Customers will enthusiastically adopt demand response as a way to save money with a minimum impact on comfort and convenience. Utilities will find that the demand response produces a value that equals or exceeds the cost of arranging it. BUT

12 Logs in the Path of Progress Recent realities Soft economy: Load growth has been less than predicted and its value is less than forecast. Anti big-corporation movement: Why trust the utility? Opt-Out sentiments: Alleged but unproven adverse health effects and unfounded privacy concerns. Uncertain about savings: Customers are not convinced DR savings are worth the bother. DR = Demand Response

13 The Missing Piece: Is it? Presenting the customer with data: Daily load profile on the web? Disaggregation of customer s loads on the web? Time-of-Use or other peak-sensitive rates (price signals) to participating customers on the web? Price signals from meter to HAN/HEM? Price signals via web to HAN/HEM? WHAT PRICE SIGNALS? WHAT RATES? HAN = Home Area Network HEM = Home Energy Network

14 Rates! Rates are the soft, vulnerable underbelly of Demand Response! The Six Million Dollar Man was created supposedly because there was a need and We have the technology! We have the technology for Demand Response in the residential sector, but will we have the rates?

15 Technology IFs If applicable standards stabilize soon. If a technology choice can endure 20 years. If customers will buy-in and stay-in. If the technology arrives and is timely, available, affordable, supported, justified, has the range, and works! If customer satisfaction is clear, consistent.

16 The Electric Smart House Project Stakeholders Allegheny Power System American Electric Power Co. Arizona Public Service Bozrah Light & Power Centerior Central Illinois Public Service Central and Southwest Commonwealth Edison Duke Power Company Eastern Utilities Edison Sault Electric Electric Power Research Institute Edison Electric Institute Empire District Electric Entergy Corporation Florida Power Corporation General Public Utilities Corp. Houston Lighting & Power Iowa Power Inc. Kansas Gas & Electric Minnesota Power Missouri Public Service NRECA Newport Electric Northwestern Public Service Oglethorpe Power Corp Ohio Edison Oklahoma Gas & Electric Ontario Hydro Pacific Gas & Electric Pennsylvania Power & Light Potomac Electric Power Company Philadelphia Electric Company Public Service of Indiana Salt River Project Southern Company Tampa Electric Company Texas Utilities Electric Company UGI Corporation Wisconsin Electric Power Company NRECA = National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

17 Courtesy of Edison Electric Institute

18 Automation and Energy Management System

19 Home Automation Points Clothes Washer Clothes Dryer HVAC & Thermostat Pool Pump & Filter HAN Display Panel Water heater HVAC = Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning HAN = Home Area Network Source: F3 Analytics, used with permission Dishwasher

20 Basic Model Structure Core Inputs Calculation Model Results HVAC Space Temp Control & Algorithms Appliance Settings And Water Heater Electric Rate Structure Uncontrolled Base Load Customer Choices Home Structure, Weather, Surroundings Electric House Simulator Output

21 Core Inputs Temperature Control and HVAC The temperature input panel controls the thermostat set point, dead band and max hourly change in set point. The smart HVAC which overrides manual settings in response to electric rate signals can also be engaged. The behavior of the smart HVAC is determined by set point biases entered for off peak, shoulder, peak and super peak electric rates. HVAC = Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning F = Fahrenheit hr = hour A/C = air conditioning Source: F3 Analytics, used with permission

22 Core Inputs Electric Rate The electric rate input panel allows for the specification of shoulder, peak, and super peak electric rates between particular start and end times. If more than one rate is in effect over a period of time, the higher rate prevails. The off peak rate is in effect when neither shoulder, peak nor super peak is specified. kwh = kilowatt hour Source: F3 Analytics, used with permission

23 Additional Images Mph miles per hour SE = southeast Source: F3 Analytics, used with permission

24 Sample Model Output Model Results A/C = air conditioning W = Water kwh = kilowatt hour kw= kilowatt Ttl = Total F = Fahrenheit HVAC = heating, ventilation and air conditioning s = seconds Source: F3 Analytics, used with permission

25 Who Participated? BGE (Baltimore G&E) NSTAR (Boston Edison) DTE (Detroit Edison) OGE (Oklahoma G&E) PEPCO (Potomac Electric) We Energies (Wisconsin Electric Power) Each utility provided: Its then current peak/time sensitive rates structures, fuel adjustment, hourly weatherappliance saturations, nature of peak load, prevailing construction practices, and DR objectives. DR= Demand Response G&E = Gas and Electric

26 BGE (Baltimore G&E)

27 NSTAR (Boston Edison)

28 OGE (Oklahoma G&E)

29 Potomac Electric

30 hourly weather WE Energies (Wisconsin Electric)

31 So what are the Take-Aways? Yes! For most utilities but not all AMI needs DRto be cost-justified. And, obviously, DR needs AMI! Customer-side technology is essentialif full DR potential is to be realized. We have the technology. In % of utilities offered some type of residential TOU rate, but only 1.4%of eligible customers (341,000 out of 25.5 million) participated! Why?* Rate design is criticalto the customer (savings) and to the utility (DR result and revenue.) *EPRI Survey of Innovative Rates, 1991 Report TR EPRI = Electric Power Research Institute AMI = Advanced Metering Infrastructure DR Demand Response TOU = Time of Use

32 Other challenges? Rate options: Opt-in? Opt-out? Mandatory? Technology the customer will need: Information? Expected savings? Buy/rent equipment where? Who pays? Installation help? Get tech support and service? Where? Help line? Obsolescence factor? Performance assurances? Timing? Promotion and education

33 We even have Smart Grass Seed! How about Smart Rates! The missing piece

34 Contact: Ralph E. Abbott SAIC Energy, Infrastructure & Environment Global Smart Grid Services Office: Mobile: