North American Industrial Battery MARKET FORECAST 17-19

Transcription

1 129 TH C O N V E N T I O N O F B A T T E R Y C O U N C I L I N T E R N A T I O N A L A P R I L M A Y 2, North American Industrial Battery MARKET FORECAST Nick Starita Director, Global Product Management, Energy and Industrial Systems

2 1 HOUSEKEEPING Acknowledgements and clarifications Agenda 2 TRADITIONAL MARKETS Motive Power Stationary Summary review 3 OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS Energy Storage Systems Alternative technologies 2

3 Thank you industry experts SEAN BLAYLOCK Exide DOUG BOUQUARD East Penn BRUCE COLE East Penn BILL CUNNINGHAM GS Yuasa JAY FRANKHOUSER C&D Technology TAYLOR FREDERICKSON Triathlon Batteries ERIC GALLANT GS Yuasa JIM GARCIA Exide GARY GRAY Liion VINCENT HALMA Kion JERRY HOFFMAN Hoffman Capital MARK JESKO Exide SCOTT JOHNSON Clark MARK KELLEY Crown Battery MANFRED KLEINERT Exide FRANCOIS LINCK SAFT JEFF LONG EnerSys CHUCK MATHIAS East Penn SAHWN O CONNELL EnerSys DOUG PIERCE Yuasa JIM RUBRIGHT East Penn TOM TRAUGOTT Amazon.com CHAD UPLINGER EnerSys STEVE VECHY EnerSys MARK WELS East Penn JOHN WOOD - Ecoult 3

4 Data collection methodology & definitions Sales data include lead-acid battery sales of reporting BCI members Imports from non-reporting companies are not included Stationary products include batteries 25Ah and above Lead prices assumed to be stable during forecast period 3-Year industry forecast is an accumulation of the forecast from individual reporting members 4

5 Macro drivers influence all industrial battery markets Environmental Awareness Alternative Technologies Global Economy 5

6 MOTIVE POWER MARKET 6

7 2016 motive power sales grew 1.0%, Industrial truck is 97% of motive power market SALES IN MILLIONS 1,021 1, Actual Growth BCI Members Previous Forecast Growth Mining -46.5% 3.0% Railroad -13.4% 1.2% Industrial Truck +2.0% 4.1% +1.0% +4.0% SOURCE: BCI 7

8 Mining SALES IN MILLIONS Mining continues downward trend, though uptick in demand reported since late 2016 is this uptick sustainable? '16 SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 8

9 Railroad SALES IN MILLIONS Rail A lot of idled locomotives, excess batteries in field '16 SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 9

10 Motive power steady sales growth trend continues in 2016 NA MOTIVE POWER BATTERY MARKET SALES IN MILLIONS 1, CAGR Mining -17.9% Railroad +2.2% Ind. Truck +4.7% +4.2% '16 SOURCE: BCI 10

11 Strong OEM industrial lift truck shipments continue in 2016, electric lift trucks growing to 65.5% share US OEM INDUSTRIAL TRUCK FACTORY SHIPMENTS THOUSANDS CAGR 2016 Growth Internal Combustion +1.8% -6.0% Electric +5.5% +11.0% +4.1% +4.5% 59% 66% '16 DRIVERS Strong economy Online retail fulfillment models Environmental awareness SOURCE: ITA, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 11

12 Motive power units +4.6% in 2016 after several years of low volume growth NA MOTIVE POWER UNIT VOLUME VOLUME IN THOUSANDS CAGR Growth MP Units +3.5% +4.6% '16 SOURCE: BCI 12

13 Since 2012, electric lift truck factory shipments have been outpacing Motive Power unit volume. Average annual growth rates for electric lift truck factory shipments and motive power battery units Batteries Lift Trucks +3.5% +3.5% Batteries +1.7% Lift Trucks +9.5% SOURCE: ITA, BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 13

14 Changing user dynamics and improving technology influencing battery sales and ultimately reducing the battery per truck ratio. Batteries lasting longer Improved smart chargers Fleet management / telematics End user awareness Increased use of high-performance batteries Opportunity charging becoming norm existing equipment Growth of internet retail fulfillment models Alternative technologies taking some growth share SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS, FORKLIFT-BATTERY-CHARGER.COM, POWERDESIGNERS.COM, AMAZON.COM 14

15 BCI members forecast MP sales growth at 4.9% per year vs. historical 4.2% per year 744 NA MOTIVE POWER SALES FORECAST IN MILLIONS 1,032 1, CAGR Mining +6.4% Railroad +0.8% Industrial Truck +5.0% +4.9% FORECAST % % % SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 15

16 STATIONARY MARKET 16

17 2016 stationary sales down 0.5% SALES IN MILLIONS Actual Growth BCI Members Previous Forecast Growth Misc. Standby * -0.2% 8.2% UPS +11.7% 5.0% Control & Switchgear +3.6% 5.1% Communications -8.8% 5.6% -0.5% +5.7% *Emergency lighting, security, railroad signaling, photovoltaic, diesel generator starting, etc SOURCE: BCI 17

18 Stationary downward trend continues from 2013 peak NA STATIONARY POWER BATTERY MARKET SALES IN MILLIONS '16 CAGR Misc. Standby +13.9% UPS +0.1% Ctrl & S/G +1.2% Comm. -0.6% +1.1% SOURCE: BCI 18

19 NA STATIONARY PRODUCT SALES IN MILLIONS Mix trend toward VRLA blocs continues, depressing average selling price per system % 24% % 24% VRLA Monobloc 2-Volt VRLA 33% 23% Flooded '16 SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 19

20 Expect flooded downward trend to continue despite 2016 spike attributed to replacement timing. BATTERY PRODUCT GROWTH RATE CAGR 16 Growth VRLA Monobloc +3.9% +3.3% 2-Volt VRLA +1.1% -17.3% Flooded -3.6% +13.9% +1.1% -0.5% SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 20

21 Telecom sales decline continues in 2016 NA COMMUNICATIONS MARKET GROWTH & TRENDS IN MILLIONS CAGR 2016 Growth VRLA Monobloc -0.4% -5.8% 2-Volt VRLA 0.0% -18.6% Flooded -2.1% % -8.8% '16 SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 21

22 Telecom companies are evolving. Less landline traffic Central office to data centers utilizing central office real estate as edge computing data centers Spending on content Cost pressure: reduce cooling cost, reduce backup time where possible SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 22

23 Telecom companies are evolving. 5G Future Timing Small cells becoming edge of network, towers become part of infrastructure Gear upgrade at cell towers opportunistic battery change out SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 23

24 Strong UPS growth in 2016 driven by active data center build out 277 NA UPS MARKET GROWTH & TRENDS IN MILLIONS CAGR 2016 Growth VRLA Monobloc +5.1% +14.0% 2-Volt VRLA 0.2% -12.2% Flooded -9.2% +15.4% +0.1% +11.7% '16 SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 24

25 Cloud service giants spending massive amounts of capital to grow profitable data service businesses and establish capacity for future data explosion = 31.5B SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS, WSJ TECH S HIGH-STAKES ARMS RACE: COSTLY DATA CENTERS, J. GREENE, 4/7/17 25

26 Flooded batteries continue to dominate the risk averse Utility segment 82 NA CONTROL & SWITCHGEAR MARKET GROWTH & TRENDS IN MILLIONS CAGR 2016 Growth VRLA Monobloc -0.9% -17.5% 2-Volt VRLA +7.0% -9.6% Flooded +0.3% +10.5% +1.2% +3.6% '16 DRIVERS Like-for-like replacement Low natural gas prices Regulatory uncertainty SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 26

27 Miscellaneous Standby sales flattening out after years of strong growth 43 NA MISCELLANEOUS STANDBY* MARKET GROWTH & TRENDS IN MILLIONS CAGR 2016 Growth VRLA Monobloc +16.5% +2.1% 2-Volt VRLA +7.0% -19.3% Flooded +13.9% +36.8% +13.9% -0.2% '16 *Emergency lighting, security, railroad signaling, photovoltaic, diesel generator starting, etc SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 27

28 Residential renewable energy finally starting to see incentives for energy storage and consumption. California Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) budgeting for residential storage Will lead-acid participate? SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS, ENERGYSAGE.COM, CPUC.CA.GOV/SGIP 28

29 BCI members forecast Stationary sales growth at 6.8% per year vs. historical 1.1% per year. Industry experts forecast is flat. 795 NA STATIONARY SALES FORECAST IN MILLIONS 867 1, CAGR Misc. Standby +6.2% UPS +6.4% Ctrl & S/G +6.7% Communications +7.4% +6.8% FORECAST % % % SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 29

30 SUMMARY 30

31 2016 NA Market 1.9 Billion Motive Power 1.0 Billion Stationary 0.9 Billion Motive Power and Stationary market summaries. Market Flat in 2016 vs 2015 Motive Power +1.0% Stationary -0.5% BCI Members Forecasted Growth 5.8% CAGR Motive Power 4.1% to 1.2 Billion Stationary 6.8% to 1.1 Billion SOURCE: BCI 31

32 ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS MARKET 32

33 BCI members continue to forecast exponential growth for energy storage NA ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS SALES FORECAST IN MILLIONS CAGR Energy Storage 59% FORECAST % % % SOURCE: BCI, INDUSTRY EXPERTS 33

34 How can the lead-acid battery industry reassert itself and become part of the Energy Storage Systems conversation? Lithium industry winning by playing by different rules while lead-acid is losing a seat at the table Lead-Acid Conservative industry Want to see a product demonstrated in field Lithium Huge companies investing billions Willing to take product risk Looking to participate and make near-term profits Looking to develop the market for long-term profits SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 34

35 How can the lead-acid battery industry reassert itself and become part of the Energy Storage Systems conversation? SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS, GTM RESEARCH 35

36 What keeps you up at night? Trade Policy Trump Uncertainty Pricing Lead Regulations New Technologies Samsung Imports Loss of Focus 5G California Commoditization Google Competition Staying Relevant Tesla Renewables Geopolitical Events Lithium Macroeconomics Amazon China SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 36

37 Lead-acid industry can compete, but must promote technology and benefits Using lithium to sell lead-acid, everyone has a show truck Some growth will be won by specialized alternative technologies Closed lithium-lift-truck systems Lithium where real estate is a premium Small/light/remote devices or cells When vs If? Lithium share: Motive Power <1% (EU ~5%) Telecom <1% UPS >1%?, OEMs marketing lithium Alternative Technologies Lithium Fuel Cells NiCd NaMCl SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 37

38 Lead-acid industry can compete, but must promote technology and benefits Lead-Acid Alternative Technologies SOURCE: INDUSTRY EXPERTS 38

39 129 TH C O N V E N T I O N O F B A T T E R Y C O U N C I L I N T E R N A T I O N A L A P R I L M A Y 2, North American Industrial Battery MARKET FORECAST Nick Starita Director, Global Product Management, Energy and Industrial Systems