Navajo Coal Replacement by 2015

Transcription

1

2 Navajo Coal Replacement by 2015 Part of the LADWP Power Supply Transformation REPLACEMENT NAVAJO REPLACED BY 2015 RESOURCES Sotllr r;:;! ~-+ Energy Efficiency Wind Geothermal + Combined Natural Cycle Gas 2

3 tl":tre!defidt Ii!Il!II5I K Rood Moapa SOlar P$l:l)l'lSempra CMS3 Solar I!IIlI!II!II Projects Planned & Under Construction WI%:lProJects in-service -a:-goal {All Figures in GWh} %..00 soec.c :ll 4000 '" iM% % ;0% ""=t-i"",'g«:>~ _ xl>"tln~liol.. _Nw,alopo ~;""~"ExhtlnKWlm! =l'ioiwwim! ""'''';''5IIX1lAduot

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 . Town<h!plRo.ftgolS<t<llot> --- U1.M.Uull\yC;:"""""" _ -. Pt"l''''''''' up to 5()Oi<V ROW (5.$ m""" by 1~Q,.,.,. "'~x). _.-- Pn>j>.,."" l~kvt...""'_ U~"(3mll"..bo/:io;...,) -- Ae R""<I(Orn'_bo/:24_"""x) ~ Ptop "" W.I... PIflo>lIn.. (l mil.. ", 26f...-t) c::::::::ii $d., Feoo1~ l<lundo.ry!1ze3d Mer"",," 11;0""",,,110..

11

12

13

14

15 V~6. 1~C}~0, -,, 1q. ~.10~~? ij-~ coppermtsolar R- Z /.,?- william Ernest schenewerk, phd, P.E w5chenewerk@msn.com ~. ~~ San Rafael Avenue, LOS Angeles california, f ~0. 10:30 September 12, 2012 Los Angeles OWP Board meeting -appeared ~ 10:00 september 25, 2012 city Council: mistake: left 14:00 october 03, 2012 Environmental committee scattergood 3 repower 10:00 October 10, N spring City council Item (29) S48 Coal Hollow mine in Alton utah expansion. Referred to Environmental Committe 14:00 October 17, 2012: Environmental committee perrin Ranch wind project Generator Interconnection Agreement: l(x:uso/person 14:00 November 07, N spring Room 1010 Environmental committee cms3 14:00 November 07, N spring Room 1010 Environmental committee KRMS 2 (lx) (SB2 [lx]: POU RPS requirement: 25% by 2016 and 33% by 2020 CMs Miguel A. santana, city Administration Officer BP and BP /10/2012 CMs3 LAOWP Board of commissioners 10/11/2012 Reference: A Benyamin & R. o. Nicholos, LAOWP Board Approval Letter, 10/01/2012: Copper Mountain solar 3 (CMS3) PSA-BP and Agency AA-BP agreements with southern California Public power Authority (SCPPA) for solar capacity from CMs3 in Boulder city, Nevada. 20 year agreement for 250 M from CMs3 pv connected to LAOWP Marketplace Station at 500 kv. participatants: LAOWP 210 MWe and City of Burbank 40 MWe. LAOWP: 420 Gwh/a at USO/MWh, 22.8% utilization, 805 MUSO 20 a cost, starting 12/31/2015 for 20 a, CMs3 210 MWe is 1.9% of -9 Gwe 2040 LAOWP nameplate. LAOWP rate increase estimate: 30 TWh/a * 1.2 USO/MWh = 36.0E+06 uso/a If CMs3 defaults city of Boulder lease obligation: PPA allows SCPPA to take lessee rights: SCPPA cms3 Purchase option +1-10%, nth year/muso: 10/368; 15/290; 20/150. OJ palo verde on-peak 2016 "Brown Energy" Rate: USO/MWh. 20 a contract cost: 1\$ at 420 Gwh/a = 420 Gwh/a * (95.75 USO/MWh USO/MWh) * 1000 MIG = 21.2E+06 uso/a = billion uso additional cost over 20 year contract. Alan S. Brown "DOE creates its OWn solar x-prize" Mechanical Engineering, November 2012, page 22: 2010 commercial solar 4.6 uso/w; 2015 DOE Goal: 1.25 USO/W, Tracking PV output relative to nontracker: 1-axis = +1.25; 2-axis: Measure B nontrack, 16:00 local time peak, Mid-August: 15 degrees south of Due West and 45 degree tilt. 17% utilization. 2-axis tracker ad1ustment: 0.17 * 1.4 = 0.24 utilization Baroness Nicholson: solar cost of hlgh-risk capital: -9%/a. Full-boat: 1% land rent + 1.5% property tax + 1.5% insurance + 2% maintenance + 5% depreciate + 9% $ = 20%/a PV tracker 4000 uso/kw * 0.2/a/(8766 h/a * 0.25 * 0.9 ohm/transformer) = 0.4 uso/kwh I am william Ernest schenewerk. I did solar energy research in graduate school. I am a licensed nuclear engineer, mechanical en~ineer and FAA A&P. August 2012, FERC* requests suspension of callfornia's carbon cap-and-trade plan. It is not too hard to extrapolate that AB32 will be just as unenforceable as is carbon cap-and-trade: Merchant generators will refuse to participate. Future "Renewable energy" investments may collapse, Copper Mountain unit 3, CMs3, included. Assuming 4 uso/w and 15% utilization, copper Mountain solar will need 3%/a cash flow just to keep the junk man away. 3%/a uses up 96 USO/MWh contracted power price. Nothing left for dept service, rent and property taxes. If AB32 is cancelled, mandated CMs3 power may end resulting in CMS3 bankruptcy. SCPPA may takes over crumbling 1 billion usa solar PV plant, or LAOWP loses 210 Mwe. Burbank may bail, leaving LAOWP with -100 million usa up-front cost at -10 million/a bonding cost and -50 million/a operating cost. LAOWP undispatchable busbar cost: 60,000,000 uso/a 1(250 MW * 0.24 utilization * 8766 h/a) = 114 USO/MWh, 2.5 * Brown Or LAOWP stays out and loses 250 Mwe solar. Junk man hauls 1 billion dollar cms3 hardware. 250 MWe of scatter~ood runs most of the time, negating "fast start" mods. 200 TWh at 70 USO/MWh cost dlfference is 4000 uso/person, 6 times transfer payments. LADWP 2102 IRP 10/11/2012 presentation uses hydro for peak. sug~est reconfiguring PV for 16:00 instead of 13:00. Airplane motors cost 0.1 uso/w-a, lmplying 0.5 uso/w capital cost, page M /2012 LAOWP 2011 Final IRP: BUY~M~ Ch~1*/-0.5 uso/w Signed: William Ernest schenewerk, PhD, 11/07/2012 ~/b1 ~~ ~~)~ *FERC document Page 1

16