The UN Decade of Action for Road Safety

Transcription

1 The UN Decade of Action for Road Safety Presentation by David Ward, Director General, FIA Foundation Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine 4th October 2011 Paris

2 Origins of Motor Vehicle Safety Here in Paris In 1909 the first ever International Traffic Convention was adopted. It introduced the concept of type approval for motor vehicles requiring that automobiles must be: So designed as to prevent, as far as possible, all danger of fire or explosion, as not to frighten by its noise animals, whether ridden or driven, and as not to give rise to any other cause of danger to traffic or seriously to inconvenience by the emission of smoke or vapour any persons using the road ; And vehicles should be equipped with: a strong steering apparatus, which will allow the car to be turned readily and with certainty and to have two brakes, each independent of the other and adequate for its purpose. From these origins started a one hundred year effort to improve motor vehicle safety and its proved worthwhile.

3 Vehicle Safety in 21 st Century One hundred years later passenger cars on the market in USA, Europe, and Japan are safer than ever before. This is the result of technologies for crash protection (crumple zones, seat belts, air bags) and avoidance systems (electronic stability control) that have made a major contribution to fatality reduction. In the USA safety technology has saved 328,551 lives between 1960 and 2002 (NHTSA). In the UK the single development over the past 15 years that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total has been the improvement in secondary safety (TRL). Road deaths have declined by 58% and car occupants by 56%. This progress is the result of regulatory push and market pull leading to sustained innovation, research and development of safety technologies that are increasingly demanded by consumers in a market for safer vehicles. The next frontier is sustaining this progress at a global level especially in newly motorising countries.

4 In The Grip of a Great Convergence Martin Wolf Chief Economics Commentator Financial Times 4/1/11 We are witnessing the reversal of the 19 th and 20 th Century era of divergent incomes. By mid 20 th Century real incomes per head in China and India had fallen to 5 & 7% of US levels. This divergence is now reversing the biggest single fact of our world. Post WW2 Japan, South Korea and the Asian tigers began a convergence on USA, Western Europe. Now China and India are following but the scale is unprecedented. If China follows Japan s path it will reach 70% of US output per head by Today s divergent rates of growth reflect the speed of convergence of income growth. Emerging economies aggregate growth between 2005 and 2010 is 41% compared to 5% in the advanced economies. USA, EU, Aus, Can & NZ amount to 11% of world population compared with India and China s share of 37%. The present position of the former cannot be sustained. The great convergence is a world transforming event.

5 Growth in the Size and Location of the Middle Class

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7 Automotive Ownership Tipping Point

8 Vehicle Use to 2050 by Country 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Other Africa South Africa Other LA Brazil Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe Asian TE Russia Korea Japan Australia and NZ Other OECD Europe UK Italy Germany France USA Mexico Canada

9 Changing Geography of Vehicle Use

10 Changing Geography of Vehicle Sales and Production Last year for the first time in automotive history sales of light vehicles in emerging economies exceeded those of the mature economies, amounting to 37 and 35 million units respectively. Meanwhile emerging economies now account for the largest share of the production of the top ten vehicle manufacturing nations. Building and selling motor vehicles is now an emerging economy industry. Top 10 Vehicle Producers Mature Economies Emerging Economies million (USA, Jp, D, Fr, Esp, Can, UK) 9.3 million (Ch, SKor, Br) Total 48.0 million 27.7 million (Jp, USA, D, Es, Fr) 31.6 million (Ch, SKor, Br, Ind, Mex) 59.3 million

11 The Expanding Middle and Road Safety Today 1.3 million people are killed and 50 million injured annually in road crashes worldwide. Low and middle income countries account for 90% of global deaths. Most at risk are children, young people, and vulnerable road users. By 2030 road crashes are forecast to become the fifth leading cause of death rising to 2.4 million fatalities per year. Over the same period we will see: An explosive growth of the middle class - especially in Asia; Increased levels of mobility, urbanisation, and connectivity; Huge increases in automobile use, and road infrastructure. So whilst today both the geography and demography of road injury is very diverse the great convergence and the expanding middle will create an increasingly similar road safety challenges for especially among the G20 nations.

12 Road Fatality Rates of the Group of 20 Countries

13 The UN Decade of Action for Global Road Safety In response the United Nations has launched a Decade of Action for Road Safety with the aim to reduce by 50% the forecast number of road fatalities by This could avoid 5 million deaths & 50 million injuries, and save $3 trillion. The UN has prepared a Global Plan for the Decade with recommendations across five pillars of action: 1) Road Safety Management, 2) Safer Roads and Mobility, 3) Safer Vehicles, 4) Safer Road Users, 5) Post Crash response. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is encouraging Member States to fully implement it.

14 Global Vehicle Safety Issues In the emerging economies vehicle safety has not received much attention. However, the explosive growth of vehicle use and production in these countries is starting to highlight some very significant opportunities and challenges. weak safety standards (producing & importing nations) and insufficient global harmonisation around WP29 standards. affordability concerns resulting in low specification especially of smaller vehicles intense industry competition leading to de-specification of safety features current lack of consumer awareness and safety information growing share of global platforms (43% by 2012) by OEMs offering substantial cost savings up to $900 per vehicle (source: AT Kearney) growing income levels and potential for expanding market for safety.

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16 Decade Plan - Influencing Vehicle Design Activity 1: Encourage Member States to apply and promulgate motor vehicle safety standards as developed by the UN s World Forum for the Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP 29). Activity 2: Encourage implementation of new car assessment programmes in all world regions to increase the availability of consumer information about the safety performance of motor vehicles. Activity 3: Encourage agreement to ensure that all new motor vehicles are equipped with seat belts and anchorages that meet regulatory requirements and pass applicable crash test standards (as minimum safety features).. Activity 4: Encourage global deployment of crash avoidance technologies with proven effectiveness such as Electronic Stability Control and Anti Lock Braking systems in motorcycles. Activity 5: Encourage use of fiscal and other incentives for motor vehicles that provide high levels of road user protection and discourage export of new and used cars that have reduced safety standards. Activity 6: Sustain investment in research and development of safety technologies that will improve vehicle safety and reduce risks to vulnerable road users. Activity 7: Encourage managers of governments and private sector fleets to purchase and maintain vehicles that offer advanced safety technologies and high levels of occupant protection.

17 NCAP - Consumer Crash Test Programmes Consumer crash test programmes in Australia, Europe, Japan, and the USA have helped to create a market for safety by raising awareness of the car buying public, and rewarding manufacturers that build the safest cars. Now NCAPs are developing in emerging economies such as China, South Korea and in Latin America. NCAPs usually rate the cars with stars awarded based on occupant protection scores. These are recorded from instrumented dummies that measure the loadings and decelerations that occur during the crash. Some NCAPs include additional pole, whiplash, and pedestrian tests, and include active safety systems, such as ESC in their programmes. NCAPs are usually more stringent than legislative tests. For example a 5 star Euro NCAP car has been estimated to have a 36% lower fatality risk than a car that meets the ECE Regulations.

18 Summary of 2010 Latin NCAP Phase 1 results Toyota Corolla XEI + Airbag Chevrolet Meriva GL Plus + Airbag Fiat Palio ELX 1.4 Emotion + Airbag VW Gol Trend Airbag Peugeot 207 Compact 5p Airbag Peugeot 207 Compact 5p NO Airbag VW Gol Trend NO Airbag Fiat Palio ELX NO Airbag Geely CK NO Airbag

19 Global NCAP To support the Decade Plan the FIA Foundation is supporting Latin NCAP in its initial two year pilot phase, and the recently launched Global New Car Assessment Programme - GNCAP. GNCAP will offer support to NCAPs in emerging economies by offering technical support guidance and quality assurance. GNCAP will also provide a platform for cooperation for NCAPs and like organisations around the world to share best practice, to further exchange information, and to promote the use of consumer information to encourage the manufacture of safer cars across the global automotive market. GNCAP will carry out research on innovations in vehicle safety technologies, their application in global markets, the range of policies that will accelerate their use, and monitor the progress of vehicle safety across the globe. GNCAP will also develop a global awards scheme to recognise achievement in vehicle safety, innovation in safety related technologies, and products.

20 Innovative Funding for Global Road Safety The Commission for Global Road Safety, chaired by Lord Robertson and which first called for the Decade of Action, has now proposed an innovative funding mechanism for global road safety. To support the Decade Action Plan new car buyers could make a voluntary opt out Contribution of $2 per vehicle. Along similar lines last year the Massive Good Initiative was launched targeting customers making a flight booking, a hotel reservation, or car rental. With one click they can contribute US$2 to fighting HIV, malaria and tuberculosis and to improving maternal and child health care in developing countries. The Commission believes that road safety could also be a strong candidate for the application of similar innovating funding mechanisms. The JD power forecast for light vehicle sales in 2011 is 76.5 million for 2011 worldwide. A voluntary contribution added to the sale price of each new vehicle sold could potentially raise $140 million each year. This is exactly the scale of resources needed to give strong momentum to the Decade of Action.

21 Time for Action...Thank You!