World Automotive Aftermarket

Transcription

1 World Automotive Aftermarket Industry Study with Forecasts to 2007 & 2012 for 20 countries and six regions STUDY #1674 May 2003 $4800 The Freedonia Group Beta Drive Cleveland, OH USA Tel: (US) or Fax:

2 World Automotive Aftermarket Industry Study with Forecasts to 2007 & 2012 Study #1674 May 2003 $ Pages The aftermarket for electronic products offers the strongest prospects and will significantly outpace demand in the more mature mechanical and electrical products segments through 2007 Global demand to grow over 5% per year through 2007 Global demand for automotive aftermarket products is projected to increase five percent per year through 2007 to $144 billion. Gains will be driven by a steady increase in the global motor vehicle park, continued maintenance and repair of older vehicles -- especially in the developing regions of the world -- and greater use of higher value automotive electronics. Nevertheless, advances will slow from historical rates of growth due to better quality original equipment and replacement parts and significant price competition in many segments of the market. Gains will be fastest in the developing regions of the world, which generally have a higher proportion of older vehicles and a more rapidly expanding light vehicle park compared to the more mature markets of North America, Western Europe and Japan. Electronic products offer best growth prospects Mechanical products accounted for 57 percent of overall aftermarket products demand in However, these are largely mature products that are subject to intense price competition. Their share of the overall market has been declining for more than a decade, and will continue to do so through Nevertheless, the segment does include several faster growing items such as brake parts and fuel injectors. The aftermarket for electronic products such as controls, modules, sound systems and components, navigation systems and security systems, offers the World Automotive Aftermarket Demand by Product, 2002 (US$112 billion) Electronic Products 20% Electrical Products 23% Mechanical Products 57% strongest prospects and will significantly outpace demand in the more mature mechanical and electrical products segments through China, India to register double-digit gains through 2007 The Asia/Pacific region will exhibit particularly healthy gains, with the exception of Japan. China and India are both expected to register doubledigit annual gains in their respective automotive aftermarkets through Rapidly rising incomes in this region will allow for rapid expansion in motor vehicle utilization rates in most countries, which are currently well below global standards. The West European aftermarket will grow at a below average 4.6 percent per year pace through 2007 to $50 billion. The slow dismantling of the current European Union (EU) Block Exemption regulations in the region will allow for greater competition and reduce the relatively higher prices of aftermarket products in the region. Nevertheless, growth will remain respectable considering the vast size of this market. The North American market will exhibit the slowest gains in the world due to continuing product improvements made by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of light vehicles, combined with a younger light vehicle fleet in the US and Canada. Visit for complete text and table of contents

3 Table of Contents Letter From the CEO INTRODUCTION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 ECONOMIC & MARKET ENVIRONMENT... 4 General... 4 World Economic Outlook... 4 Recent Macroeconomic Performance... 5 Macroeconomic Outlook... 7 World Population Overview... 9 World Light Vehicle Overview Light Vehicle Sales Light Vehicles In Use Environmental & Regulatory Considerations Pricing Trends SUPPLY & DEMAND General Aftermarket Parts Demand per Light Vehicle by Country. 19 Demand by Region Shipments by Region Demand by Product Mechanical Products Engine & Drivetrain Exhaust & Emission Filters Brake Parts & Assemblies Other Mechanical Products.. 30 Electrical Products Ignition Systems & Parts Batteries Lighting Equipment Other Electrical Products Electronic Products Controls & Modules Autosound Systems Security Systems International Trade NORTH AMERICA Overview Aftermarket Demand United States Canada Mexico Dear Colleague: In challenging economic times, it is more important than ever to have credible industry information on which to base your business decisions. At Freedonia, it is our mission to provide you with an unbiased, reliable outlook for each industry that we study. We carefully examine available sources, separate the wheat from the chaff, and distill an ocean of data into a concise presentation of where an industry stands today... and where it is going. At Freedonia, it is our mission to provide you with an unbiased, reliable outlook for each industry... Each Freedonia industry study provides you with the information and analysis you need to make important decisions. How large is your target market? Which product segments are growing fastest? Our analysts review the relevant secondary sources and talk directly to participants in the industry to find the answers. Our world studies provide this guidance on a country-by - country basis, and present the geographic areas which have the best growth opportunities. Our World Automotive Aftermarket study is the culmination of several hundred hours of Freedonia analysts' time. In a single volume, it provides the salient details you need with respect to aftermarket demand for a wide variety of automotive parts. Separate forecasts are provided for the top 20 national markets. Learn about the impact of the dismantling of the European Union Block Exemption regulations on aftermarket demand in that region. Share Freedonia's impartial view on likely gains in China and the rest of Asia. I invite you to add the Freedonia Group to your team by acquiring our World Automotive Aftermarket study today. Very truly yours, Jeffrey Weiss, CEO WESTERN EUROPE Overview... 59

4 Table of Contents (cont.) Aftermarket Demand Germany France Italy United Kingdom Spain Other Western Europe World Automotive Aftermarket Demand, 2002 (US$112 billion) Africa/Mideast 5% North America 29% ASIA/PACIFIC Overview Aftermarket Demand Japan South Korea Australia China Thailand Taiwan India Other Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific 24% Latin America 5% Western Europe 35% Eastern Europe 3% OTHER REGIONS Overview Aftermarket Demand Latin America Brazil Argentina Other Latin America Eastern Europe Russia Poland Other Eastern Europe Africa/Mideast South Africa Other Africa/Mideast INDUSTRY STRUCTURE General Industry Composition & Market Share Acquisitions & Divestitures Marketing & Distribution Cooperative Agreements Competitive Strategies Product Differentiation Low Cost Leadership Vertical Integration Globalization Brand Loyalty & Price Competition Company Profiles Bosch (Robert) GmbH Robert-Bosch-Platz One Gerlingen-Schillerhohe Germany Robert Bosch Corporation 2800 South 25th Avenue Broadview, IL COMPANY PROFILES Sales: $32.9 billion (2002, as reported by the company) Geographic Sales: (2002, as percent of total) European Union Countries 60%; Other European Countries 5%; Americas 21%; and Asia, Africa and Australia 14% Employment: 224,340 (2002, as reported by company) Key Products: gasoline engine systems, diesel systems, chassis components, energy and body systems, automotive electronics, mobile communications and multimedia equipment Robert Bosch GmbH is a privately owned company that operates in three businesses: Automotive Technology, Industrial Technology, and Consumer Goods and Building Technology. The Company is 92-percent owned by the Robert Bosch Foundation and eight-percent owned by the

5 Freedonia Study # WORLD AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET World Automotive Aftermarket - Mechanical Products Demand (billion US dollars) Item United Kingdom: Aftermarket Demand Light Vehicles in Use (mil) $ aftermarket/vehicle SUPPLY & DEMAND The Supply and Demand World Mechanical Products Engine & Drivetrain 17.3Section 21.5 analyzes 27.2 trends 33.1 and40.2 Exhaust/Emission 6.7 considers 8.4 the 10.7threats 13.2and 16.2 Filters 4.3 opportunities in the 9.8 auto-12.motive aftermarket Brake Parts & Assemblies WESTERN EUROPE Other Mechanical Products Demand for automotive aftermarket products in the UK is forecast to advance 5.1 percent per year through 2007 to $7.1 billion. This SAMPLE is reflective PAGEof an industrialized market with high Text vehicle sections density support and a strong, each albeit mature, market for aftermarket products. One of the key demand drivers is table s numbers & projections that vehicles in the UK require a Ministry of Transport (MOT) certificate in order to gain or maintain insurance. MOT certificates are required for all vehicles more than three years old. Australia - Automotive Aftermarket (million US dollars) A key segment of the market in the UK is for anti-theft and other automotive security systems. As it is very Itemcommon for drivers to park their cars on the street in the UK (rather than in private driveways or lots), there tends to Light be Vehicles a higherin Use (mil) incidence of car theft. While such systems have $ long aftermarket/vehicle been available as factory equipment on luxury cars, pressure from insurers is making these systems more common Automotive on Aftermarket Demand economy cars as well. In addition, security systems Mechanical are Products: becoming more sophisticated and now include satellite Engine & Drivetrain location systems and devices which immobilize the vehicle Exhaust/Emission in addition to alarms which merely sound the horn and flash Filters 58 the lights. Many of these systems are added after the COUNTRIES/REGIONS Brake Parts & Assemblies purchase of the car, and make up an increasing share of the These Sections provide Other Mechanical Products total aftermarket. demand for historical Electrical Products: years and forecast The majority of the vehicles in use in the UK utilize Batteries manual growth to 2007 and Ignition Systems & Parts Lighting Equipment for countries Other Electrical Products and six 82regions Electronic Products: Controls & Modules Autosound Systems Security Systems net exports Automotive Aftermarket Shipments

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