A Space Solar Power Industry for $2 Billion or Your Money Back

Transcription

1 A Space Solar Power Industry for $2 Billion or Your Money Back An Alternate Approach to SSP Development Al Globus ISDC 2012, Washington, DC

2 The Short Story Develop an industry, not just execute missions Use the $2 billion for prizes Target 10 MW class SSP systems Structure the prizes to reward multiple satellites by multiple companies Payout only for power delivered to paying customers If no one delivers with a set time, return the money

3 Space Solar Power Moderate technical risk Zero market risk: current global electrical use 2 TW $ /kwh for conventional power to the U.S. grid $ /kwh for peak or subsidized green power in some advanced nations. Up to $0.50/kwh or more for diesel power to remote locations High price risk in the short and medium term Huge payoff Essentially unlimited electric power for billions of years Very clean and green Enormous boost to space development High launch volume leads to low cost SSP similar to fusion, except much easier Fusion funding is ~$400 million/yr, $10s of billions total Pay for this SSP proposal in five years

4 Current SSP Development Japan $20 billion program 10MW plant GW plant 2030 PG&E has contract with Solaren 200 MW SSP plant start in 2016 NASA funded $100,000 study this year EADS/Astrium laser power transmission Discussions in China and India

5 Other Prizes $10 million Ansari X-Prize jump started sub-orbital tourism DARPA Grand Challenge spurred important advances in driverless cars $30 million Google Lunar X Prize spurred substantial private development of robots for the lunar surface $21 billion SSP prize proposed by this author Match projected cost of Japanese traditional effort Aimed at GW scale SSP satellites

6 Prize Properties If objective is not reached, money is returned Surprising approaches are sometimes developed X-Prize winning SpaceShipOne folds in half for reentry Multiplier: far more is spent chasing the prize than the pot $30 million spent winning Ansari X-Prize Entry ($10 million pot) Losing entries represent additional effort This prize If an industry develops, losing entries have trained up personnel like the Ansari X-Prize, is intended to create an industry Like the Google Lunar X Prize has multiple levels

7 Prize Target To size the prize, a target system is required The target system need not be correct, but must be representative of cost and power output Target system Infra-red laser power beaming to reduce system size (factor >30K) Must solve eye safety problem Thin film solar cells attached to solar sail material Fiber lasers spread across the sail Estimated 100 g/m 2 based on Ikaros solar sail Falcon Heavy launch ($100 million) 2-10% end-to-end efficiency (7-35 MW per launch) $500M -$1B for development and operations of the first one WAG optimistic but not irrational Second and subsequent systems much less expensive John Mankins will have a better cost estimate soon

8 Target System Basis Ikaros Low mass power production (100 g/m 2 ) LaserMotive Infra-red power beam Reduce antenna size by 30, ,000x Fiber lasers Spread heat rejection over entire sail

9 Proposed SSP Prize Pays per kwh sold to existing electricity provider Sale must be at near market prices to give incentive to use Three levels $1, $0.70, $0.30/kwh to develop successively less expensive power. No satellite may receive funds from more than one level To develop multiple vendors, at each level no more than 60% goes to first vendor, 30% to second, 10% to others. Each must use different approach and technology. At 10MW, six years is required to win $600 million for first satellite

10 Administration The $2 billion prize money must be placed in escrow so that successful competitors are guaranteed payment. If none is claimed within 10 years, the money reverts to the sponsor. Whatever is not claimed within 20 years reverts to the sponsor. This provides sufficient time to win the prize but applies time pressure. At 1% interest, $2 billion generates $20 million/yr for administration and pre-competitive R&D The prize will require a board and support staff to: Register entries. Oversee a contract to develop hardware to independently measure the energy delivered to the ground. Determine the power actually delivered by contestants. Determine which entries may access each level. Determine the minimum price an entrant may charge when selling prize-eligible power. Award research grants. Administer open source software development

11 What Else Costs $2 Billion A little more than one shuttle flight Over the life of the program shuttle flights cost $1.6 billion each Less than year of SLS/Orion development Less than 25% the cost of the James Webb Telescope One or two major Mars missions All of the these are worthy projects None would begin to have the beneficial effect of a successful SSP industry. Not even in the ball park For example, a successful SSP would pay for thousands of launches per year, drastically driving down the cost for all other space activities.

12 Potential Sponsors Who could afford $2 billion? Many countries Those with strong aerospace industries might limit entrants to national firms Otherwise may require production in-country Some companies; e.g., Exon made $10.7 billion profit in a single year May want IP rights to successful entries A few individuals

13 Conclusion A successful SSP industry is worth significant risk Proposed prizes is intended to spark development of 10MW class SSP satellites Proposed prize would pay out $2 billion to nine satellites and three vendors at three prize levels: $1/kwh, $0.70/kwh, $0.30/kwh First winner could bring in $600 million in about six years, not counting sale of the energy to utility Intended to lead to the development of large numbers of much larger SSP systems to supply a significant fraction of Earth s energy needs.

14 Dark side of sail Fiber lasers Opening for beam directing hardware 120 m