A Community Carbon Dioxide Scorecard for Leon County,

Transcription

1 A Community Carbon Dioxide Scorecard for Leon County, June 12, 217 Richard S. Hopkins for Sustainable Tallahassee Executive Summary This document puts in one place information about multiple aspects of carbon dioxide (CO2) production in Leon County over a 15-year time span. CO2 production due to stationary and mobile sources combined has been essentially stable over the period , while percapita combined CO2 production has declined by about 8% over that period. This decline has been due entirely to reductions in CO2 production from stationary sources. Mobile sources show no change in per capita CO2 production and an increase in CO2 production consistent with increase in population and number of vehicles. Mobile sources account for 43% of the combined total of CO2 production, and stationary sources for 57%. Total CO2 production from stationary sources (City of Tallahassee electric and gas, and the Leon County customers of Talquin Electrical Cooperative) rose steadily and has since fallen to 21 levels. Because of efficiency improvements at COT generating stations, the CO2 produced per megawatt-hour of electricity generation has fallen steadily since 1991, and is expected to fall further as more solar generating capacity is brought on line Talquin Electric will also be bringing such capacity on line in the near future. The declines in per-capita Leon County CO2 production due to electricity production are almost entirely attributable to these improvements in generation efficiency. The City of Tallahassee has also achieved savings through a wide variety of demand reduction interventions with individual commercial and residential customers. Commercial customers account for 54% of Leon County CO2 production from electricity and natural gas in 215, and residential customers for 46%. 1

2 Total CO2 releases attributable to natural gas use by commercial customers have increased , while total releases attributable to residential customers are close to flat, and CO2 release attributable to residential gas use have decreased on a per-customer basis. Year to year variability in weather (hot or cold winters or summers) appears to have had only a modest effect on electricity and natural gas consumption so far. Ridership on Star Metro peaked in 211 and has since declined. The percentage of the Leon County workforce commuting alone in a car has risen slightly and is just over 8%. About 2.8% of Leon County workers commute on foot or by bicycle. Less than.5% of new vehicles sold in Florida are battery electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, as against.8% nationally and 3.6% in California. Miles driven and gallons of gasoline consumed have risen as population and number of vehicles have risen, with little or no change in miles or gallons per vehicle or per capita. Retail price of fuel has had little effect on consumption and driving patterns. 2

3 Table of Contents: Executive Summary 1 Table of Contents 3 Introduction 5 Combined stationary and mobile Stationary Outcome measures 7 Total CO2 production Population, utility customers, vehicles CO2 production per capita Distribution of CO2 production by mobile vs stationary (gas, electric, residential, commercial) in Outcome measures 11 Total CO2 from electric and gas utilities, City of Tallahassee + Talquin Electric Coop, COT electric plus TEC CO2 production total and by type of customer, CO2 by category piechart, 215 (COT gas and electric and TEC) 13 CO2 produced by COT electric utility, by year , and type of customer 14 CO2 from electrical use per customer by customer type, COT utility CO2 from natural gas by customer type, COT utility, CO2 per natural gas customer, by type, COT utility, CO2 produced per residential gas customer, COT, Intermediate measures 18 Tons of CO2 produced per MWh of electricity, , COT utility 18 Leon County electricity use in MWh (COT + TEC) and natural gas use in Mcf (COT), Electricity consumption by 1 largest customers, COT, (graph) 2 Electricity consumption by 1 largest customers, COT utility, 215 (table) 21 Inputs 22 Installed solar capacity, Tallahassee, at end of each year, Tallahassee city utility, miles of gas pipeline in place, Counts of demand side reduction activities taken by the City of Tallahassee utility , and estimated savings Monthly Tallahassee heating and cooling degree days, Jan 2 to March

4 Mobile Outcome measures 25 CO2 from vehicles (gas and diesel), in tons, Leon County, Population and number of vehicles, Leon County, CO2 per vehicle per year, Leon County, CO2 per capita from vehicles, Leon County, Intermediate measures 27 Gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel sold in Leon County, by year, Vehicle miles traveled per day, Leon County, Vehicle miles traveled per day per registered vehicle, Leon County, Inputs 29 Florida average monthly retail gas prices, June April Star Metro annual passenger trips, Star Metro average passengers per bus mile, Mode of travel to work by persons employed in Leon County, 2 to Tallahassee/Leon County bicycle infrastructure in place, Florida sales of electric vehicles, by year and type, Data sources, assumptions and conversion factors 34 4

5 Introduction Purpose: To put in one place information about multiple aspects of carbon dioxide production in Leon County to guide planning by Sustainable Tallahassee and community partners. Such planning would help us identify a path acceptable to our community and consistent with other sustainability efforts to achieve reductions in production of CO2 (and other greenhouse gasses) as our part in the global effort to minimize human-caused climate change. Perspective: CO2 emissions attributable to energy use and decisions by Leon County residents. Two major domains included: Stationary sources (homes, businesses, factories) Mobile sources (cars, trucks, busses, motorcycles) Not accounted for in this document, but for possible inclusion in later iterations: - CO2 production associated with goods and services used; - CO2 and methane releases associated with waste and wastewater treatment; - life cycle CO2 costs of energy production, infrastructure, and distribution; - industrial emissions of greenhouse gasses beyond those associated with city utility use. The focus of this report is on total CO2 emissions and factors contributing to those emissions. Percent of energy from renewable sources would increase whenever renewable energy use increases faster than use of energy from fossil fuel sources, even if fossil fuel use is also increasing. We believe the focus should be on reducing CO2 production. Reductions in CO2 production can result from less use of energy to do useful work (for example, driving fewer miles or resetting thermostats), from more efficient use of energy (for example more efficient light bulbs, electric power generators, or automobiles) and/or from changes in the mix of energy sources (e.g. from natural gas to solar). The optimal path for Leon County to reduce CO2 production over a 1- to 4-year period will include contributions from all three of these approaches, but their relative importance to overall reductions in CO2 production remains to be determined by and for our community. Time frame: All measures are calculated with as long a baseline as possible (at least ten years), and should be recalculated annually going forward. Geographic scope: Leon County. Note that this requires assembling data from both the City of Tallahassee and Talquin Electric Cooperative for uses of energy by stationary sources (homes, buildings etc). Data sources: Data are obtained from a variety of publicly available sources: Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Department of Highway Safety, Florida Department of 5

6 Revenue, City of Tallahassee annual reports to bondholders, Star Metro transit authority in Tallahassee, and various individual staff members in these agencies. Conversion factors are obtained from websites supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency. For utility data, all non-residential uses are categorized as commercial. Organization of this document: This document addresses three domains: combined (stationary and mobile sources); stationary sources (houses, stores, offices, factories, etc); and mobile sources (cars, trucks, busses, airplanes, motorcycles). As more and more vehicles enter service that are wholly or partially electric, the distinction between stationary and mobile sources will be less sharp. Within each of these domains, we first include high-level outcomes, that is, CO2 production itself; then intermediate contributors to CO2 production (for example, number of vehicle miles driven); and then activities by governments or community organizations that contribute to higher or lower CO2 production (for example, number of home energy audits completed). Data sources and conversion factors: See here. Return to Table of Contents 6

7 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Combined Outcome measures, combined: Total annual CO2 emissions attributable to Leon County residents and businesses (sum of CO2 totals for stationary and mobile sources) has been essentially stable since 28. 3,5 3, 2,5 CO2 production from stationary and mobile sources, Leon County, , in tons 2, 1,5 1, Total CO2 from stationary sources Total CO2 from vehicles Total CO2 stationary plus vehicles The essentially stable total CO2 production results from small declines from stationary sources (electric and gas utilities) and increases in mobile sources (vehicles). 7

8 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Meanwhile the population of Leon County, the number of electrical customers, the number of natural gas customers, and the number of vehicles have all been steadily increasing. 35 Leon County trends in population, vehicles, and utility customers, Population Registered vehicles COT residential electric customers COT residential gas customers TEC electric Leon customers

9 Adjusted for population growth, the trend in CO2 production from stationary and mobile sources together has been downward from 28 through 215 (decline about 8% from 28 to 215) CO2 production from stationary sources plus vehicles, Leon County , in tons per capita

10 Mobile sources account for 43% of combined mobile and stationary production of CO2. Commercial customers of electricity and gas account for 31% of combined production, while residential customers account for 26%. LEON COUNTY CO2 PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION BY STATIONARY AND MOBILE SOURCES, 215 Commercial electric COT 24% Mobile sources 43% Commercial gas COT 4% Residential electric COT Commercial electric 17% TEC Residential electric Residential gas COT 3% TEC 8% 1% 1

11 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Stationary sources Stationary sources are local sources of carbon dioxide release that have a fixed location, including houses, office buildings, schools, stores, and factories. All sources that are not residential have been combined as commercial. City of Tallahassee has some natural gas customers who are outside Leon County. Staff indicate that 11% of the city s gas is sold to these customers. We have applied a percentage of 89% to both commercial and residential gas sales to estimate gas sold to Leon County customers. Talquin Electric Cooperative (TEC) has approximately 15 Commercial meters in Leon county and approximately 22 commercial meters outside it; thus 4.5% of commercial meters are in Leon and we assume 4.5% of power used and CO2 generated for commercial customers are in Leon. TEC has approximately 24,7 residential meters in Leon county (5.2%) and approximately 24,5 residential meters outside of Leon County. We assume that 5% of TEC s residential electrical consumption and CO2 production is for Leon County customers. We have not yet accounted for LP gas use, which in Florida as a whole accounts for about 3% as much energy production as natural gas. Outcome measures, stationary Total CO2 production from stationary sources in Leon County (Tallahassee city utility plus Talquin Electric) peaked in 27 and has been basically stable since 28 with a low in ,5 Total CO2 production from electric and gas utilities, in thousands of tons, City of Tallahassee + Talquin Electric Coop, , 1,5 1,

12 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Commercial electrical customers account for slightly more CO2 production than residential electrical customers. 2,5 City of Tallahassee electric plus Talquin Electric Co-op CO2 production in tons, total and by type of customer, , 1,5 1, COT + TEC residential electric CO2 COT + TEC commercial electric CO2 COT + TEC total electric CO

13 Electricity use accounts for more 215 Leon County CO2 production than customers natural gas use, and commercial customers account for more CO2 production than residential customers. Tons of CO2 from stationary sources by category, 215, including City of Tallahassee gas and electric and Talquin Electric Co-op Residential electric TEC 14% Commercial electric TEC 6% Residential gas COT 2% Commercial electric COT 42% Residential electric COT 3% Commercial gas COT 6% Note: Electricity use accounts for 92% of CO2 releases attributable to stationary sources, while use of natural gas accounts for 8%. Commercial customers of these two energy sources account for 54% of CO2 releases. 13

14 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard CO2 production attributable to City of Tallahassee utility electricity use peaked in 27 and has been steady since 29. 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Tons of CO2 produced by City of Tallahassee electric utility, by year , and by type of customer Note: For the City of Tallahassee utility, commercial electrical customers account for more CO2 production than residential customers; the reverse is true for the Talquin Electric Cooperative. Residential Commercial Total 14

15 CO2 generation per City of Tallahassee electric customer has been on a downward trend for both commercial and residential customers, but more so for commercial customers. 8. CO2 from electrical use per customer by customer type, in tons, COT Utility Residential Elec per customer Commercial Elec per customer 15

16 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Total CO2 releases attributable to natural gas use by commercial customers have increased, while total releases attributable to residential customers are close to flat. Tons of CO2 from natural gas, commercial plus industrial, Tallahassee City Utility, Residential Gas Tons CO2 Commercial Gas Tons CO2 Total Res plus Comm Gas CO2 in tons Note: Numbers of both residential and commercial natural gas customers have increased. In recent years 1 miles of gas distribution pipelines have been added per year. 16

17 CO2 production per City of Tallahassee commercial gas customer has increased, while CO2 production per residential gas customer has decreased. 8. Tons of CO2 produced per customer, commercial and residential, Tallahassee City Utility, Residential Gas Commercial Gas Total Gas CO2 production per residential gas customer has declined by about ~25%. Tons of CO2 produced per residential gas customer, Tallahassee City Utility,

18 Note: In 215, in Florida we used a little more than 1% as much energy from propane as we did from natural gas. Propane use is down by more than half from its peak in 198. In Leon County in 215, 3% of homes report they heat their homes with bottled gas. Intermediate measures, stationary: There have been steady declines in the Tallahassee City Utility s carbon intensity for electric generation over a 25-year period, though the rate of decline has been less in recent years Carbon intensity for electricity production, Tallahassee City Utility, in tons of CO2 produced per MWh of electricity, Note: A carbon intensity of.49 tons per MWh (the value for 215) corresponds to 98 pounds per MWh or.98 pounds per KWh. City utility carbon intensity will decline further as large photovoltaic arrays at the airport are brought on-line. Carbon intensity for Talquin Electric Cooperative (TEC) in 215 was estimated at.75 tons of CO2 per MWh, similar to Tallahassee city utility s values from the period This will change some when TEC adds solar generating capacity in the next few years. Over half of TEC s power, bought from Seminole Electric Co-op, currently is generated from burning coal. The next chart shows total MWh produced by the City and by TEC by year starting in 21. CO2 production in tons is obtained by multiplying the MWh by the carbon intensity expressed in tons of CO2 per MWh. CO2 in tons = MWh" times "tons of CO2 per MWh". 18

19 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard COT and TE electrical energy distribution have been essentially flat since 26, while COT natural gas distributed has risen. CO2 production from natural gas is simply proportional to the amount used, while CO2 production from electricity is the product of amount used (seen here in MWh) and carbon intensity (tons of CO2 per MWh). 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Leon TEC Electric total MwH COT total MwH Leon natural gas used in Mcf 19

20 Millions Leon County CO2 Scorecard The ten biggest Tallahassee electric customers together used almost 29% of Tallahassee utility s electricity in 215; FSU alone accounted for almost 1%, and state government for almost 5%. Consumption patterns are dynamic. 3 Electricity consumption by 1 largest customers, Tallahassee City Utility, by year , in millions of KWh 25 FSU 2 State of Florida 15 1 City of Tallahassee 5 FAMU State of FL FSU City of Tallahassee FAMU LCS TMH Federal Govt Leon County Publix Wal-Mart Note: These 1 customers account for 23% of electric utility revenues. Consumption data not adjusted for number of square feet. FSU and FAMU have steadily added buildings and square feet, and thus their total energy consumption is rising in spite of conservation efforts, while the square feet of state-owned office space in Tallahassee has been going down. 2

21 MWh consumed by ten largest retail electric customers, City of Tallahassee utility, year ended 9/3/215 MWh % of total retail sales Florida State University 267,6, State of Florida 133,325, City of Tallahassee 95,437, Florida A&M University 65,88, Tallahassee Memorial Hospital 53,912, Leon County Schools 45,857, Leon County 31,261, Federal government 28,543, WalMart 27,997,5 1.5 Publix 27,174,

22 Inputs, stationary Total on-site photovoltaic generating capacity in Leon Co has increased greatly since 26; little change since 213. Capacity in 215 is ~17 KW or 1.7 MW, while Phase I solar electric array at the airport will generate the equivalent of 25 MW. Installed solar capacity in Kw, Tallahassee, FL, at end of each year, Data source: Ten Year Site Plans, Tallahsseee Electric Utility City-managed Customer-installed The City of Tallahassee adds 1 to 15 miles of natural gas pipeline each year Tallahassee city utility, Miles of gas pipeline in place,

23 COT Demand Side Management -- COT utility estimates that the cumulative effect of nine years activities is annual savings of 73, MWh of electricity use going forward. Counts of demand reduction activities taken by the COT utilities: Activity # of Residential Energy Audits 6,699 6,11 Energy Star Appliance Rebates 3,667 2,89 Homes served by Neighborhood Reach 1,232 1,132 Gas Appliance Conversion Rebates 1,1 1,22 High Efficiency HVAC Rebates Water Heater Rebates Ceiling Insulation Grants Energy Efficiency Loans Commercial Energy Audits Energy Star New Home Rebates Variable Speed Pool Pump Rebates Participants in Nights & Weekends 1,933 2,95 Through 216, ~8 homes had served by the Neighborhood Reach Program. Estimated annual energy savings per year resulting from COT demand reduction activities, ; nine-year total is 73, MWh. Calendar Year Incremental Energy Savings (MWh) 28 6, , , , , , , , ,29 23

24 1/1/ 8/1/ 3/1/1 1/1/1 5/1/2 12/1/2 7/1/3 2/1/4 9/1/4 4/1/5 11/1/5 6/1/6 1/1/7 8/1/7 3/1/8 1/1/8 5/1/9 12/1/9 7/1/1 2/1/11 9/1/11 4/1/12 11/1/12 6/1/13 1/1/14 8/1/14 3/1/15 1/1/15 5/1/16 12/1/16 Leon County CO2 Scorecard There is a great deal of year-to-year variability in both heating degree days and cooling degree days. Tallahassee s winter was unusually warm Monthly totals of heating and cooling degree days at the Tallahassee airport, January 2 to March 217 Cooling degree days Heating degree days For each day, if the average of the high and low temperatures is greater than 65 degrees, subtract 65 from that average to get the number of cooling degree days for that day. Then add up the values for each day to get a monthly total. For heating degree days, do the reverse procedure. Source is Bizee Degree Days website operated by Weather Underground and using US National Weather Service data. 24

25 Mobile sources: Outcome measures, mobile: Overall CO2 production attributable to Leon County motor vehicles has been increasing slowly but steadily since 28. 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Total CO2 from vehicles (gas and diesel), in tons, Leon County, Total CO2 in short tons Population and number of registered vehicles have also been going up. 4, 3, 2, 1, Population and number of registered vehicles, Leon County, Vehicles Est population 25

26 CO2 produced per vehicle per year has been steady over the period. CO2 per vehicle per year, in tons, Leon County, CO2 per vehicle CO2 produced by motor vehicles has also been steady when expressed as tons per capita. 6. CO2 per capita per year from gas and diesel motor vehicles, in tons, Leon Co., CO2 per capita, in tons 26

27 Intermediate measures, mobile: Sales of gasoline in Leon County have been increasing steadily , while diesel sales have been close to flat. 16,,. Gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel sold in Leon County, by year, , from FL DOR 12,,. 8,,. Gasoline Diesel 4,, Miles traveled per day dipped during but have since rebounded. Vehicle miles traveled per day, Leon County, by year, , from FL Highway Dept 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,,

28 Miles driven per vehicle per day in Leon County are very stable; they dipped slightly in 211 and have not recovered to earlier values Miles driven per vehicle per day, Leon County,

29 Jun-3 Jan-4 Aug-4 Mar-5 Oct-5 May-6 Dec-6 Jul-7 Feb-8 Sep-8 Apr-9 Nov-9 Jun-1 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Leon County CO2 Scorecard Inputs, mobile Miles driven, in total or per vehicle, appears to be only very weakly responsive to the retail price of gasoline. Florida average monthly retail gas prices in dollars, June April

30 Thousands Leon County CO2 Scorecard Star Metro annual passenger trips peaked in 211 and have now fallen to their lowest level in the 15-year period. 6, Star Metro annual passenger trips, , 4, 3, 2, 1,

31 Star Metro busses are somewhat less full on average in recent years, as measured by passenger miles per vehicle mile Average number of passengers per Star Metro bus, Note: Each time a bus carries one passenger one mile, that is a passenger-mile. Each time a bus travels one mile, regardless of how many passengers it is carrying, that is one vehicle mile. The ratio of passenger miles to vehicle miles captures how full the busses are on average. So, in 214, the average bus in service was carrying 6 passengers. 31

32 Most commuters in Leon County ( 8%) travel to work alone in their cars, and that percentage is rising. Travel to work by persons employed in Leon County, by mode, from US Census, 2 to Drove alone 2-person Carpool 3-or-more-person Carpool Transit Bike Walked Taxi, Motorcycle and Other means Worked at Home Note: The % who carpool has decreased from 2 to The % who either walked or bicycled to work increased from 2.% to 2.8%. 32

33 Tallahassee is investing in protected and buffered bike lanes and marked bike boulevards, to deepen existing networks of conventional bike lanes, streets with sharrow lane markings, and trails. Tallahassee/Leon County bicycle infrastructure in place, End of 215 End of 216 Protected bike lanes 1.3 Buffered bike lanes 4.8 Conventional bike lanes Marked bike boulevards 1.2 Off-street paved trails or paths (in city) Off-street natural surface trails or paths (in city) Shared lane markings Off-street paved trails or paths up to 5 miles outside city Off-street natural surface trails or paths up to 5 miles outside city Public bike parking spaces 1 11 Grade separated crossings 1 Florida market share for Battery Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles together has been rising since 211 and in 216 was.46% Florida sales of electric vehicles, by year and type, Street-legal only, no cycles Battery EV Plug-in Hybrid EV Note: Market share for these vehicles in California was 3.59% in 216, and national market share was.83%. 33

34 Data sources, assumptions and conversion factors Note that we are including in our commercial CO2 production estimates some CO2 releases attributable to manufacturing activities in Leon County, where the manufactured products leave the county. Still, we import far more in the way of manufactured goods, food, and information than we export. Converting MWh of electricity generation at City of Tallahassee power plants to CO2 produced: we use the year-specific carbon intensity figures provided by COT. Converting MWh of electricity supplied to Leon County customers by Talquin Electric Cooperative: we use proportions of electricity generated from coal, natural gas, and renewables as supplied by TEC, and apply national averages for CO2 production from those various fuel sources to the estimated amount of TEC electrical power used in Leon County. We use proportions from 215 and assume they have been unchanged since 21. We use 215 estimates from TEC that 5% of residential customers and 4.5% of commercial customers are in Leon County. We assume that electricity used within these categories is proportional to the number of customers. We assume that the number of vehicles registered in Leon County is the same fraction of vehicles actually domiciled in Leon County over time, 28 to 215, so that we can interpret changes in usage of motor fuel to be correlated to changes in number of vehicles registered. We assume that motor fuel sold in Leon County is a good approximation of motor fuel used, and that this approximation is stable over the period We obtained total gallons of gasoline and of diesel fuel sold in Leon County each year from the Florida Department of Revenue. We obtained number of miles driven, by year, in Leon County from the Florida Department of Transportation. We obtained number of registered vehicles in Leon County at the end of each year from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles. We obtained annual numbers of passengers, vehicle miles, and passenger miles for Star Metro (and Taltran) from the Florida Department of Transportation. We obtained counts of electric vehicles sold in Florida from xxxxx website. We obtained information about MWh of electricity sold and CCF of natural gas sold by the City of Tallahassee utility, by year, by type of customer, from each year s Annual Report to Bondholders. That is also the source for numbers of commercial and residential customers. 34

35 We obtained information about MWh of electricity sold by Talquin Electric Cooperative, and number of customers, by year, for commercial and residential customers, from the Florida Public Service Commission. Data about installed photoelectric capacity in Tallahassee comes from City of Tallahassee utility Ten-Year Site Plan documents. 35