mo'c Physics Applied

Transcription

1 Energy Study SANTA CLARA/ALUM ROC K CORRIDOR Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority June 30, 2008 [revised] mo'c Physics Applied 228 Hamilton Avenue, Suite 300 Palo Alto, California (650) moc@mocpa.com

2 Energy Study SANTA CLARA/ALUM ROCK CORRIDOR Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority June 30, 2008 [revised] prepared for PBS&J Corporation [Michael K. Kay, Project Manager] by Mike O'Connor, Ph. D.

3 Contents Setting Project Scenarios 1 Sources of Electrical Energy 1 Sources of Jet Fuel, Gasoline & Diesel Fuel 3 Sources of Hydrogen 6 The Limited Versatility of Source Forms of Energy 7 California Energy Commission Findings 8 Local Usage 9 Setting Summary 9 Impacts Project Description 10 VTA Criteria for Significance 10 Energy Use by the Alternatives 11 Mitigation 12 [Continued On the Next Page]

4 Tables Table 1: Gross System Electrical Power 1 Table 2: Source Areas of Crude Oil 3 Table 3: California Petroleum Use 5 Figures Figure 1a: California Electrical Energy Sources 2 Figure 1b: California Electrical Energy Alternative Sources 3 Figure 2: California Natural Gas Sources 4 Figure 3: Oil Supply Sources to California Refineries 5 Figure 4: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Taxable Sales in California 6

5 Setting Project Scenarios The proposed Santa Clara Alum Rock Transit Improvement Project would have two phases: Phase 1 would involve upgrading an existing diesel-powered bus line, line 522, to Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) status and adding an additional bus line, line 523; Phase 2 would consist of later replacing line 523 with a Single Car Light Rail Transit (LRT) line. The services would primarily be operated along Santa Clara Street and Alum Rock Avenue in San Jose, and on some nearby connected streets. Sources of Electrical Energy Table 1 provides a comprehensive overview of the sources of the all of the electrical energy that is consumed in California breakdowns are provided with respect to both the energy source type and the place of origin. The column headings NW Imports and SW Imports pertain to the electrical energy that is imported across state lines in those regions of California. For coal and coal alone, "in-state" generation refers to facilities that are owned by California utilities and use coal, but the generating facilities are actually out-of-state. Table 1: 2006 Gross System Electrical Power (GSP) 1 [Gigawatt-Hours] Fuel Type In-State NW Imports SW Imports GSP GSP% Coal 17,573 5,467 23,195 46, Large Hydro 43,088 10,608 2,343 56, Natural Gas 106,968 2,051 13, , Nuclear 31, ,635 38, Renewables Biomass 5, , Geothermal 13, , Small Hydro 5, , Solar Wind 4, , ,514 1, , Totals 230,102 19,804 44, , Note: A "gigawatt" is a billion watts. 1 See 2006 Net System Power Report, California Energy Commission, CEC , April of 12

6 Referring to Table 1, a considerable fraction of the power that is used in California is imported, approximately 22 percent. A second notable feature of Table 1 is the predominance of natural gas as the source of electrical energy amounting to 41.5% of the total. Figures 1a and 1b illustrate the recent history of the sources of supply of electricity used in California. The second figure provides a breakdown of the "Alternative" component of the first figure. Figure 1a: California Electrical Energy Sources 2 300, ,000 Gigawatt-Hours per Year 250, , , , , , ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Total Hydroelectric Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Energy Imports Alternative -25, "Energy Imports" refers to the direct importation of electricity. Note that oil, petroleum, is hardly used to generate electricity in California. The sources that are accounted for on Figure 1b are much the same as the "Renewables" of Table 1. Alternative sources of energy have not been gaining in significance in recent years, but do yield roughly 10% of the total electricity production. Natural gas is the primary swing fuel for electricity generation: natural-gas-fired electricity plants are called upon to make up for dips in other forms of supply or peaks in demand, or, as in recent years, to meet the steady overall growth in demand. Other sectors of the economy consume natural gas, such as the residential (space heating, cooking and heating domestic hot water), industrial, mining and commercial sectors, but since about the year 2000 electricity generation has been the primary use of natural gas in California. 2 From California Energy Commission, accessed 3/5/08 (2003, the given date of last update, appears to be in error as the data are current). 2 of 12

7 Figure 1b: California Electrical Energy Alternative Sources Gigawatt-Hours per Year 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Total Geothermal Organic Waste Wind Solar Other Alternative Given the importance of natural gas for electricity production in California, Figure 2 was prepared based on data gathered by the California Energy Commission. Surging imports of natural gas from the US Rockies, mainly from Colorado, have boosted California supplies in recent years. Sources of Jet Fuel, Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Whereas electricity is in effect "manufactured" from many sources of energy coal, hydropower, natural gas, etc. the liquid fuels that propel non-electric transit vehicles and trains, automobiles and aircraft are "refined", almost entirely from but one source: crude oil. Table 2 shows that the bulk of California's crude oil supply is imported. Table 2: 2006 Source Areas of Crude Oil 3 [Thousands of Barrels Per Year] California % Alaska % Foreign % Total 254, , , ,488 3 From last updated by the California Energy Commission on 10/9/07 and accessed on 3/2/08. 3 of 12

8 Figure 2: California Natural Gas Sources 4 Millions of Cubic Feet per Day 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, California Southwest Canada Rockies Total Other products are derived from petroleum in California s refineries, such as asphalt, but the bulk of the production is of transportation fuels. California also directly imports some transportation fuels and fuel blend stocks, but it is California refineries that principally meet California s demand for transportation fuels. Figure 3 shows that the fraction of oil used in California refineries that is imported has been growing year-by-year in recent years. Table 3 shows a breakdown of the products that are produced from crude oil in California's refineries. Not shown on the table is the fact that presently the gasoline that is sold in California contains about 5.7% ethanol (drinking alcohol) by volume, as an additive, which component is now principally made by the fermentation of corn mash. 4 From last updated by the California Energy Commission (CEC) on 11/9/07 and accessed on 3/5/08. The CEC advises that the data come from: California Gas Reports, FERC Form 2, QFER Form 6a and 10a, California Department of Conservations Division of Oil and Gas - Annual Report of the State Oil and Gas Supervisor. 4 of 12

9 Figure 3: Oil Supply Sources To California Refineries 5 Thousands of Barrels per Year 750, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 California Alaska Foreign Total Table 3: California Petroleum Use 6 Fuel Type Percent Gasoline 51.4 Distillate Fuel Oil* 15.3 Jet Fuel 12.6 Still Gas** 5.4 Marketable Coke*** 5.0 Residual Fuel Oil 3.3 Liquified Refinery Gas 2.8 Other 4.2 Totals *Primarily diesel fuel. ** Includes methane, ethane, propane, butane, etc. *** A carbonaceous residue of refinery processes that can be used as a boiler fuel, to make carbon electrodes, etc. 5 From last updated by the California Energy Commission on 10/9/07, accessed 3/5/08. 6 From last updated by the staff of the California Energy Commission on 7/19/2005 (based on 2004 data), accessed on 3/4/08. 5 of 12

10 Figure 4 shows the relative balance between diesel fuel and gasoline use in recent years. Gasoline use has leveled out, while diesel fuel use is gaining. Figure 4: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Taxable Sales in California 7 Gallons per Year 16,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 14,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 11,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 Gasoline Diesel 2,000,000, Sources of Hydrogen Fuel cells are devices that produce electricity by consuming hydrogen. With encouragement from both the government of California and the Federal government, automakers have been developing hydrogen-gas-powered vehicles that would utilize fuel cells. In a vehicle, the electricity from the fuel cell is used to power an electric motor that provides the motive force for the vehicle. Presently hydrogen gas is primarily manufactured from methane gas (natural gas) using a process called "reforming" that involves steam. 8 Of interest when estimating the overall effects, on the consumption of source forms of energy such as natural gas, of a resort to an alternative fuel such as hydrogen is the overall energy efficiency that is obtained with the use of the alternative fuel. 7 From maintained by the State Board of Equilization, accessed 3/5/08. 8 Hydrogen gas is sometimes commercially produced from other hydrocarbons or from ammonia, but ammonia is not itself "found energy" but must first be manufactured. Production of hydrogen by the electrolysis of water is presently not commercially viable. Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., VTA's current supplier of hydrogen and the largest supplier of hydrogen in the United States, sites most of its hydrogen plants near petroleum refineries or petrochemical plants to which it sells both the hydrogen and the steam byproduct. One use of hydrogen in refineries is to de-sulphurize fuel products. 6 of 12

11 Such an overall efficiency rating must incorporate the energy costs of extraction and processing of the source fuel, the energy cost of its distribution, and the performance of the type of vehicle in which it is consumed. And so it has been called the "well-towheels" efficiency. The efficiency with which a particular type of vehicle utilizes the fuel that is in its tank pertains only to the last stage of the process of using the fuel and has been called, in a similar vein, the "tank-to-wheels" efficiency. A substantial amount of energy is used in the process of producing hydrogen from methane, and those losses effectively detract from the superior tank-to-wheels efficiency that is achieved using hydrogen-gas fuel cells. Consequently hydrogen-gas fuel-cell powered vehicles are hardly more energy efficient overall, well-to-wheels, than ordinary diesel-powered vehicles unless the propulsion system incorporates means of recovering kinetic energy of motion during braking, storing the energy in conventional batteries for later use for propulsion. 9 Such "regenerative" braking systems exist and provide the same efficiency bonus whether they are installed in fuel-cell-powered vehicles or in, say, "hybrid" gas-electric or diesel-electric vehicles (such as the famous Toyota Prius) that actually run off of gasoline or diesel fuel and only use electricity as a medium with which to store, transfer and control energy. The introduction of Zero-Emission Buses (ZEB's) into municipal fleets is mandated by 13 CCR , "Zero-Emission Bus Requirements". Electrical buses of any kind would meet the requirements, but at present the leading electrically-powered contenders are hydrogen fuel-cell powered buses. ZEB's are discussed further in the Impacts section of this report. The Limited Versatility of Source Forms of Energy A public transit project such as the present project has the potential to alter the pattern of energy use somewhat to not only consume new amounts of energy in a particular form, but to also diminish the use of energy in some other form. For example, a new diesel bus route would lead to additional consumption of diesel fuel, but it should lead to somewhat less use of gasoline due to some of the new transit patrons having substituting transit use for automobile use. Similarly, a new electrically powered light rail line may diminish gasoline use somewhat but would increase electricity use. These are shifts in demand for end-use forms of energy, from one form to another. The question naturally arises: Can a source form of energy that is used to produce an end-use form of energy such as diesel fuel, gasoline or electricity be shifted to the production of another end-use form of energy? For a new diesel-powered bus line involving a shift from gasoline use to diesel fuel use the short answer is yes ; for a new electrically-powered light rail line involving a shift from gasoline use to electricity use the short answer is no. 9 See for example, "Well-to-Wheel Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems Volume 1 Executive Summary Report", General Motors, Argonne National Laboratory, BP, Exxon/Mobil and Shell International Petroleum Co., June of 12

12 Natural gas, the primary source of electrical energy in California, cannot as a practical matter be transformed wholesale into gasoline or diesel fuel. Similarly, it is not practical to convert any of the other sources of electrical power [Table 1] into gasoline or diesel fuel. Rather gasoline and diesel fuel both come almost entirely from petroleum. Going the other way, petroleum, almost the only source of gasoline, is not used in California to produce electricity. However, producers do have some leeway to meet shifting demands for the various liquid fuels that power vehicles, such as by shifting petroleum use somewhat away from gasoline production toward diesel fuel production. Therefore, should a new diesel bus line lead to somewhat less use of gasoline because some of the new patrons have substituted transit use for automobile use, then some of the diesel fuel that the new bus line would consume would come from petroleum that would otherwise have gone to produce the gasoline that was saved. That and the aforementioned fact that petroleum, the source of diesel fuel, is not used to produce electricity in California also means that any new demand for diesel fuel that would be brought about by a new diesel bus line would not directly or substantially draw upon the resources that are needed to produce electricity. Since petroleum is not used to generate electricity in California, any new demand for electricity that would be produced by an electrically-powered light rail transit project would have to be met by source forms of energy other than petroleum that are innately suitable to the production of electricity, such as natural gas. Any gasoline savings that would be brought about by such a project due to new transit patrons having reduced their automobile usage would ease the demand for petroleum. California Energy Commission (CEC) Findings The 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report is the most recent annual report by the CEC to the Governor and the Legislature on the state of California's energy systems. The CEC has access to myriad sets of data pertaining to source fuel and end product demand and supply, sales, etc. CEC compilations were used in all of the tables and figures above. Nowhere in the 2007 report can the consultant find any claim or projection to the effect that California is likely to fail to find adequate sources of energy to meet its future needs. Indeed, actual sustained energy shortages have not occurred in California in recent decades. (Other than the usual temporary outages that are caused by equipment failures, there have only been isolated outages of electrical power due to peak demand exceeding transmission capacity or supply only on certain hot days of recent years.) Much of the text of the CEC report and many of its quantitative analyses are devoted not solely to energy demand and supply but also to the goal of furthering the use of "renewable" sources of energy for the purpose of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide to meet energy demand in "a carbon-constrained world" The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 [Assembly Bill 32, Núñez, Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006] requires planning for carbon dioxide emisisons reduction. 8 of 12

13 In a limited way the report asserts that use of public transit is to be encouraged as a means of reducing vehicle-miles-traveled in automobiles for the combined purpose of conserving energy usage and reducing carbon monoxide emissions. Local Usage Electricity usage in Santa Clara County is approximately 6% of the statewide total. 11 Gasoline usage for the County is about 5% of statewide usage, whereas diesel fuel usage is about 3% of the statewide total. 12 Setting Summary We can infer from the data that are presented above that energy, in whatever form, is effectively portable over distances of considerably more than, say, 100 miles. That is evident in the fact that California imports so much of it across state lines. Consequently Santa Clara County's own limited generation of energy products does not constrain the growth of energy use in the County. The balancing out of demand and supply happens on a regional scale if not across the entire State then, say, in almost all of northern California as opposed to Santa Clara County alone or just Santa Clara County and neighboring counties. Indeed, all but a fraction of the energy that is consumed in Santa Clara County is imported in finished form from elsewhere in the State or beyond. 11 From last updated by the Calif. Energy Commission on 3/14/07, accessed on 3/6/ See "California Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast, Caltrans, December of 12

14 Impacts Project Description Both the LRT and BRT lines would provide service from downtown San Jose to Capitol Avenue via Santa Clara Street and Alum Rock Avenue, and the BRT line would extend further down South Capitol Avenue and East Capitol Expressway to the Eastridge Shopping Center. Phase 1: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) The transit vehicles would be 60-foot articulated diesel-powered buses, very similar or identical to those that are already being operated on Santa Clara Street and Alum Rock Avenue. There would be roughly 390,000 new transit vehicle miles per year. Phase 2: Single Car Light Rail Transit (LRT) The transit vehicles would be electrically powered articulated light rail cars probably the same cars that are presently in use on other VTA light rail lines. The 90-foot long cars can in general be connected together to form trains with consists of more than one car. However, only single-car consists are proposed for the new LRT line, so that the trains would actually be just cars. There would be roughly 250,000 new transit vehicle miles per year. VTA Criteria For Significance Public transit projects are considered by VTA to have significant adverse energy impacts if they: Lead to a wasteful, inefficient, and unnecessary usage of energy; Place a substantial demand on regional energy supply or require substantial additional capacity; or Significantly increase peak and base period electricity demand. 10 of 12

15 Energy Use by the BRT and LRT Lines The direct effects of the new BRT and LRT lines would respectively be to place new demands on diesel fuel supplies and electricity. Secondarily, both lines would reduce demands on gasoline due to some transit patrons sustituting transit use for automobile use. Phase 1: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) The articulated diesel-powered buses would consume approximately 65,000 gallons of diesel fuel per year, which is roughly 0.07% of the annual consumption of diesel fuel in Santa Clara County of about 88,000,000 gallons. This estimate is based on the starting assumption that there would be 100% diesel power. However it is to be expected that in time hydrogen fuel would be substituted for some of the diesel fuel. VTA has recently complied with a requirement of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) respecting zero-emission buses" (ZEB's) by procuring three buses that utilize hydrogen-gas-fueled fuel cells. 13 The three that are now in operation are part of a demonstration program. Performance data are being gathered. VTA is required to acquire additional ZEB's of one kind or another a minimum of 15% of buses acquired of the 2011 through 2026 model years must be ZEB's. 14 Consequently the adoption of ZEB's will not soon shift the source fuel that would be consumed by the BRT line from petroleum, the source of diesel fuel, to natural gas, the primary source of hydrogen. But eventually there would be a shift on the order of about 15%, by about Phase 2: Single Car Light Rail Transit (LRT) The electrically powered articulated light rail cars would consume approximately 2.2 gigawatt-hours of electricity per year, which is roughly 0.01% of the annual consumption of electricity in Santa Clara County of about 16,000 gigawatt-hours. Conclusions The estimates show that the direct impacts of the BRT and LRT services on diesel fuel supply and electrical power supply would be slight. Other, indirect effects such as transitinduced reductions in gasoline use would be beneficial and would tend to offset the impacts of the Project. VTA s criteria for the significance of energy impacts are not a basis upon which a finding of significance could be reached, given the estimates CCR Battery-powered buses or electric trolley buses powered by twin overhead wires would also qualify as ZEB's. ZEB's may have fuel-fired heaters for passenger comfort provided that the heaters are rigged so as to be inoperable if the ambient (outdoor) temperature exceeds 40 F. 11 of 12

16 Mitigation No mitigation is required, given the findings of no significant impacts with either phase of the Project. 12 of 12