On to Passenger Cars where GF 6 development continues to consume the majority of industry resource.

Transcription

1 On to Passenger Cars where GF 6 development continues to consume the majority of industry resource. 1

2 ... some analysts estimate there could already be over a billion light duty vehicles on the roads. Total new light duty sales were just under 89 million in 2015 annual sales could soar to 122 million by 2035 the vast majority of this growth is expected from China and India. Just 2.5% of vehicles in use in 2035 are expected to be battery electric, plug in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles and another 8 percent hybrid electric or natural gas powered. The rest some form of gasoline or diesel fueled engine. Stop start systems will grow significantly and could be fitted on more than 45% of all vehicles sold in the next two decades. 2

3 Exhaust gas recirculation, oxidation catalysts, diesel particulate filters, selective catalytic reduction and now the introduction of gasoline particulate filters to meet Euro 6 all target the tighter emissions targets. Fuel economy innovations include start stop systems, smaller, turbocharged engines, advances to timing and combustion and the use of new materials to make the engine lighter. In these smaller, more complex systems, today s lubricants must work much harder to keep engines clean for longer, while protecting the latest engine and aftertreatment technologies and contributing to fuel economy performance. 3

4 With light duty vehicles thought to be responsible for nearly 60 percent of U.S. transportation related petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions, new rules have been issued to further reduce their CO 2 emissions and to improve fuel economy. The final standards should result in an average industry fleet wide CO 2 level of 163 grams/mile in model year 2025, equivalent to 54.5 miles per gallon a huge increase from today s 35.5 mpg. Combined with previous standards, this new program means a vehicle in 2025 will emit HALF the greenhouse gas emissions of a MY 2010 vehicle. 4

5 All this presents a challenging environment for the engine oil where it is now often exposed to higher specific power density and lubricant temperatures while reduced oil volumes mean the lubricant resides in the piston zone for longer and is exposed to NOx at higher temperatures. We see four main lubrication challenges engines must be cleaner over longer drain intervals and sustain thermal stability while preventing oil degradation to enable extended drains furthermore lubricants must contribute to fuel economy improvement while protecting the engine from wear. 5

6 2015 was an excellent year for light duty vehicle sales in North America million is easily a record. 6

7 While lubricant viscosity grade trends are hard to predict, the fuel economy gains from reducing viscosity means that the use of ultra low viscosity lubricants look set to grow. But, because the very light SAE 0W grades will only be used in new vehicles, it is likely that in the next six years these fluids will account for only a small percentage of total oil volumes. Separate specifications to attempt to avoid their misuse in older vehicles seems the only sensible course of action. 7

8 The GF 6 category is now in full swing! We have never encountered this amount of change and uncertainty. GF 6 remains as two new categories lots of uncertainty still about how the GF 6B category for XW 16s will align with GF 6A and whether it will carry the same standard Starburst. 8

9 Hirano san from Toyota Motor Company shares his impressions. Hirano san: In the GF 6 development, we are developing the highest number of engine tests at the same time in the history. We need even more supports from related industries. I believe that active participation and understanding from all related industries will be the key to success. 9

10 On top of the challenges of introducing GF 6, there is a high probability that five existing tests could become unavailable in The industry has never faced the situation of more than one test at a time becoming unavailable or out of control. Immediate impacts will be on the new API SN/ resource conserving category and second generation dexos1. Older heavy duty categories will also be impacted by both the demise of the Sequence IIIG and IIIF, until a ASTM replacement test is available. 10

11 Ron Romano from Ford and Hirano san comment on these challenges and how they could be addressed. Ron Romano: ILSAC is very concerned about the provisional licensing if GF 5 tests are not available. We are working with API to address this issue. We are also working to try and ensure that the tests don t become unavailable. We re looking at possibly using some of these newer tests that are being developed for GF 6 as replacement tests for the tests that will run out of parts for GF 5. Hirano san: For each Sequence test, the industry has been making efforts to extend the life of those tests. Eventually, those tests need to be replaced by successor tests. I hope that the industry successfully establishes equivalency between current tests and new tests before we run out of those tests. No one will doubt that this year will be the most challenging one in history. 11

12 These are the key dates the hope is that industry matrices will finish in the next few months leading to ASTM test acceptance of the six new tests it is all very tight now. 12

13 Ron and Angela Willis from Generail Motors talk about their different perspectives on the timings. Ron Romano: We believe the first licensing timing for GF 6 is achievable at this time. Precision matrices are starting for all the tests, some of the tests have completed, so we feel that it should be able to stay on track. Angela Willis: In terms of the GF 6 delay, General Motors has no issues whatsoever, even with the delay out to April 1, As a matter of fact, General Motors embraces that with the second generation dexos specification. We believe it gives the industry an opportunity, or basically a rehearsal, to get their formulations in line in time for GF 6. 13

14 Here are the seven new tests the level of activity is staggering and unprecedented. 14

15 The work around the IIIH and GMOD oxidation and deposit tests lead the activities last year we made progress but there with all these tests there is more left to do. Ron Romano: At Ford we think that the Chrysler test could possibly become an ASTM test. The data that has been generated from the precision matrix does show that it is a good oxidation test. Based on the data that we ve seen generated by, on the GMOD test, we feel it s a good oxidation test at this point, and we would be in favor of using it if necessary. Hirano san: We will continue to work to improve the test quality. As you can see in any Sequence test, the completion of test development is not the end of the story. We will work to improve the precision and the quality of tests by Kaizen spirit, which roughly translates as activities focusing on continuous improvement thereby minimizing uncertainties. 15

16 A sign of the times there will be no high temperature wear test in GF 6 Ron and Angela give us their perspectives on this subject. Ron Romano: Ford is concerned about not having a high temperature wear component in GF 6 like we had with the 3G and GF 5. Within ILSAC we have discussed this and we actually are looking into how this may affect formulations by not having it in there, so it is something that we looking into hopefully to solve before GF 6 is completed. Angela Willis: General Motors has a concern with not having a high temperature test available for GF 6, being that both the GMOD and the Chrysler oxidation tests do not have a high temperature wear element to those tests. However, within dexos we do have our Opal R T test which is an internal General Motors test that we do use for dexos which serves the purpose of the high temperature wear. 16

17 LSPI is often cited to illustrate how important the role of the lubricant is to sustained durabillty let s hear from the group starting with Angela Willis have to say Angela Willis: In General Motors view, the most important thing within GF 6 would be lubricant durability relating to LSPI, or low speed pre ignition. Anne Young: Low speed pre ignition or LSPI is one of the new tests that will be part of the upcoming GF 6 specification. LSPI is an abnormal combustion event that can lead to severe engine damage such as broken pistons and can also be heard as a knocking sound. This is a recording of a multi cycle LSPI event. Hirano san: Countermeasures to LSPI by hardware design should be up to each individual OEM. I don t think it is appropriate to enforce the same hardware countermeasure as the industry standard. On the other hand, it is well established knowledge that engine oil can be a major source of the LSPI phenomena. It is necessary to incorporate the requirement to suppress LPSI in the engine oil standard. Ron Romano: Ford has addressed LSPI in the present GTTI engines that are out on the market today, but as everybody knows, LSPI is still experienced in the field. the test that has been developed for determining low speed pre ignition in motor oils has done very well, it discriminates well, and it repeats well. So we should not have a problem with testing it. Angela Willis: There are hard wearing calibration fixes that can be applied, and are being applied; however, there is a detriment to performance as well as fuel economy when those changes are applied to the engine architecture. Thus that is why the lubricant is very 17

18 imperative in terms of improvements around low speed pre ignition. Anne Young: The biggest challenge for GF 6 is finding a good balance to give consumers engine protection from LSPI and also provide increased fuel economy. We have done extensive research to understand how best to balance these two opposing challenges. 17

19 Meantime General Motors has pressed on with its introduction of a second generation dexos 1 product setting stringent new licensing requirements and raising a number of Industry concerns. 18

20 Angela Willis updates us second generation dexos and the new lighter SAE viscosity grades. Angela Willis: In terms of the second generation dexos and the amount of oils that will be out there in the marketplace, by January 1, 2017 we should be able to have a decent ramp up of oils, not to the extent of the first generation because of the new tests and the new BOI, VGRA guidelines, basically restrictions that we are placing on them. However, we should see a pretty decent ramp up between, sometime starting in 2016 going through Right now I do not foresee General Motors dropping viscosity down as low as 0W8s or 0W12s. Currently right now the lowest General Motors uses is a 0W20 oil. For the dexos specification we have patch protected for 0W16 or XW16 oils. However, in the current state in the near future we do not anticipate utilizing those viscosities. However, we did put those viscosities in our specification in case our engine hardware team would like to develop a new architecture around those oils. 19

21 As we have seen, fuel economy and emissions reduction are the two key drivers for change in the passenger car market. New requirements and test redundancy have driven the development of new industry specifications to ensure lubricants continue to offer acceptable performance to all stakeholders. Lubricant protection and performance requirements beyond those delivered by the industry specifications must be defined in their own in house specifications. With these hardware change come new challenges requiring lubricant technologies that will allow OEMs to operate in engine regimes which can deliver improved fuel consumption and reduced CO 2 emissions. In our view, as complexity and cost continue to increase, it is time for the industry to stop and challenge the status quo for industry specifications. 20

22 Let s finish this section on an upbeat note lots of change, lots of challenges we need to get the balance right between sustained durability and improved fuel economy. Hirano san: Toyota believes that the challenge of improved durability and improved fuel economy presents an opportunity for the oil and additive industries. Equal or better robustness to GF 5 and the incorporation of countermeasures for known issues are the major premise. Then, the fuel economy improvement is the most important challenge. Technology advancements are often delivered by challenging difficult technical trade off issues. I hope that the oil and additive industries will challenge higher targets and achieve them. We have a common goal. We would like to make our customers happy by delivering better vehicles. To maintain those vehicles in the field, we need high quality engine oils. The industry standard is the key to success. We appreciate cooperation from the oil and additive industries to continue to support the industry standard. 21