IPCC 5. Assessment report. The physical science basis

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1 IPCC 5. Assessment report Working Group 1 The physical science basis

2 table of contents Observed changes Changes in the atmosphere Radiative forcing Changes in the ocean Changes in the cryosphere Future outlook Represenative concentration pathways (RCP) Temperature Sea level Precipitation Cryosphere Climate change in a nutshell

3 observed changes

4 observed changes Since 1950, changes have been observed throughout the climate system. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the extent and volume of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. Many of these observed changes are unusual or unprecedented on time scales of decades to millennia. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 4

5 Observed changes: Changes in the atmosphere concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased since Since pre-industrial times. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 5

6 observed changes: CHanges in the atmosphere Present-day concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)substantially exceed the range of concentrations recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 6

7 observed changes: CHanges in the atmosphere In summer: Photosynthesis absobrs CO 2 temporarily from the atmosphere. In winter: CO 2 is released from the soil. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. Values for Pallas, Finland by Finnish Meteorological Institute. 7

8 observed changes: Radiative forcing The effects of warming and cooling factors Moreover, temperatures have fluctuated by ±0,1 C due to internal variability. Unlike other aerosols black carbon has a warming effect on climate. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 8

9 Observed changes: warming Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 9

Since the 1990s, when sufficient deep-ocean observations have become available to allow an

10 observed changes: Changes in the ocean oceans have warmed and the sea level has risen. It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to Since the 1990s, when sufficient deep-ocean observations have become available to allow an assessment, the deep ocean below 3000 m depth has likely warmed. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 10

11 observed changes: Changes in the ocean Ocean warming Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 11

12 observed changes: Changes in the ocean Rise in sea level Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 12

Observed changes: Changes in the cryosphere There is stronger evidence that the ice sheets and glaciers worldwide are losing mass and sea ice cover is decreasing in the Arctic, while

13 Observed changes: Changes in the cryosphere There is stronger evidence that the ice sheets and glaciers worldwide are losing mass and sea ice cover is decreasing in the Arctic, while the Antarctic sea ice cover shows a small increase. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover is decreasing and permafrost is thawing. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 13

14 Observed changes: Changes in the cryosphere Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 14

15 Observed changes: Changes in the cryosphere Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 15

16 Future outlook

future outlook Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) For the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, the scientific community has defined a set of

17 future outlook Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) For the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC, the scientific community has defined a set of four new greenhouse gas scenarios, referred to as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 17

18 Future outlook: Temperature Future estimates include a calculated best estimate and a confidence interval. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. Values for Finland by Finnish Meteorological Institute. 18

19 Future outlook: Sea level rise Future estimates include a calculated best estimate and a confidence interval. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 19

20 Future outlook: Precipitation Future estimates include a calculated best estimate and a confidence interval. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. Values for Finland by Finnish Meteorological Institute. 20

21 Future outlook: cryosphere Future estimates include a calculated best estimate and a confidence interval. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 21

22 Future outlook Future Outlook: Continued emissions of greenhouse gases would cause further warming. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions of CO 2 emissions. Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 22

23 climate change in a nutshell Based on IPCC Assessment Report 5, Working Group 1. 23

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