Media presentation. Tshediso Matona. Chief Executive. 15 January 2015

Transcription

1 Media presentation Tshediso Matona Chief Executive 15 January 2015

2 Introduction On December 9 we said the following We apologised to the nation for the inconvenience of the past few weeks due to load shedding. We communicated that for an extended period the power system is extremely constrained and vulnerable. With the system being tight, any abnormal event pushes us into load shedding With the reserve margin being low, we do not have enough capacity to meet demand, necessitating planned, controlled and rotational load shedding, to protect the power system from a total country-wide blackout We also said that over the last few months we have seen a significant increase in unplanned maintenance/breakdowns on our plant (between 5000MW to 9000 MW) that has had a compounding negative effect on power system reliability MW Summer & Winter load profiles Typical Winter Day - Typical Summer Day :00 02:00 05:00 08:00 11:00 14:00 17:00 20:00 23:00 02:00 In summer, the system is tight all day up to 10pm, due to the flat Table Mountain profile 2

3 Introduction We were able to avoid load shedding during the Festive Season As many businesses and industries reopened last week after the festive season, electricity demand increased. That coupled with the unavailability of some of our generating units meant that we had to go into load shedding on 9 th January for the first time this year. The power system remains vulnerable, meaning that any extra load or faults in the system may necessitate load shedding. New generating capacity and other levers are needed in order to ease the pressure on the system. This summer has seen increased use of open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) and other reserves to balance supply and demand. However there are constrains to the increased use. Summer is maintenance season at Eskom. We do planned maintenance in summer, when demand is lower, so that maximum capacity is available in winter. Maintenance season is usually from September to around mid-may, but some maintenance is done during winter On the financial side, the liquidity situation is under pressure not just because of the diesel, but also lower sales, building new capacity and the lack of cost-reflective tariffs 2015/01/16 3

4 Executive summary (1/2) Eskom has an elaborate maintenance regime that should maintain the health of our generation fleet Eskom has a codified maintenance philosophy in place This philosophy is translated into a detailed plant specific plan (down to turbine, auxiliary etc.) The required resources are matched with the plan This results into a maintenance schedule that is asking for 2000MW of diesel capacity and an additional 3000MW more capacity than we have Our philosophy of keeping the lights on at all costs superseded the maintenance philosophy and has put us into a very difficult position Keeping the lights on program has avoided load shedding in the last 7 years against all the odds managing an extremely low operating margin There is a severe maintenance backlog Increasingly leading to unplanned outages (load losses) Which accelerates the problem of not being able to recover on the maintenance backlog Some of our running plants have partial load losses, because parts are worn out, and we do not have an time window to replace/ fix There is a further risk of enduring load losses on the remaining units Keep the lights on philosophy has created a culture where proactive maintenance is less important 4

5 Executive summary (2/2) We have arrived at a point that does not allow us to ignore the health of our plants. Our reserve margin is so thin, that every incident creates a major systems issue and could also have safety implications for the plant. The massive usage of diesel helps to bridge the problem somewhat, but can t help the systemic healing and a shortage of capacity for the coming 3 years appears to be unavoidable Eskom is preparing to minimise the effects of load-shedding Generation will focus on improving 5 KPIs (PCLF, Post Outage liability, UCLF, Slips and Trips) We will a create a mechanism to transfer the capabilities of our best in class operators (Koeberg and Matimba) across the rest of the fleet We will use Koeberg and Matimba as a blueprint to develop the required skills at a station level We will bring our suppliers on board to deliver the required maintenance at the best possible quality We will create transparency on what additional spend on diesel will do to the country We will create a load-shedding schedule that supports our people and economy to the best of our ability We will prepare our customers and our interfaces to deal with load shedding We will continue to keep the public informed on the progress of our new build program and the implication on our system load We will continue to pull all possible demand side levers in collaboration with our customers and government We will develop a health recovery plan and share progress as we go We will develop together with NERSA and government a diesel burn policy 5

6 Eskom has a codified maintenance philosophy in place GO IR MGO IR GO IR General Overhaul Inspection Mini-General Overhaul Inspection General Overhaul Inspection Typical Mean Time Between Outages (Main focus of scope) IR - 18 to 36 months (Boiler work) MGO - 6 years (LP turbines because they can t make 9 12 years) GO s - 9 to 12 years depending on the station (4 cylinders of the turbines) 6

7 A plant specific plan exists Example Turbine Category A outage Category B outage Category C outage Outage cancelled Outage as originally planned Secondary start date Small outage- to be dealt with frontline maintenance staff Breakdowns Scope of work not finalised Scope of work received and finalised On the LHS plan and quality plan complete On the RHS plans submitted to outage manager 7

8 Resource requirements and availability are matched 8

9 Maintenance backlog has led to increased breakdowns UCLF % Load shedding in Deferral of maintenance F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 (Dec14) F2015 9

10 The unexpected outages at Majuba, Duvha and the diesel situation creates an unfavorable capacity outlook HD08 IR for 37 days 01/02 Category C Tech Gov Outage Inflexible Outage Flexible Outage RTS units AL31 RTS 04/02 LT04 RTS 05/02 KM01RTS 10/02 AL32 RTS 11/02 HD01RTS 14/02 KR04 RTS 16/02 MJ04 RTS 17/02 GV06 RTS 17/02 AL41 RTS 18/02 DB04 RTS 19/02 AL32 Minor Inspection for 6.75 days 04/02 Category A KB01 Refuel 121 for 98 days 09/02 Category A AL41 Minor Inspection for 6.75 days 11/02 Category A LT01 GO for 100 days 13/02 Category A HD10 GO for 82 days 13/02 Category C AL42 Minor Inspection for 6.75 days 18/02 Category A HD2 IN for 14 days 20/02 Category C The past practice of postponing outages become unsustainable Additional capacity of 3000 MW on top of 2000 MW of diesel required AL42 RTS 25/02 AL43 Minor Inspection for 6.75 days 25/02 Category A 10

11 We are likely to load shed on most days in the near future Adequate generation capacity available to meet demand and reserves Constrained generation capacity with sufficient supply to meet demand and reserves. Medium probability of load shedding Insufficient generation capacity unable to meet demand and reserves. High probability of load shedding Jan-15 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Mar-15 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Feb-15 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Apr-15 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

12 Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) Eskom has kept the lights on over the last 7-years by managing an extremely small reserve margin Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) Curve Eskom at times has managed a reserve margin of less than 8% hours in 1 Year ~12.5% hours in 1 Year ~ 14.3% US Standard (24 hours in 10 ~ 19% 0 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Reserve Margin Required reserve margin is directly linked to the system reliability you are trying to achieve for your system, and the various risks implicit in your system NERSA have recommended a 19% NRM and Eskom s internal requirements are between 15 and 18% NRM. There have been no expectation set for Expected Energy Not Served (EENS) and Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) 12

13 Keeping the lights on has created a backlog of maintenance Backlog of outages 13

14 Which accelerates the problem of not being able to recover on our maintenance backlog Deferred maintance causes partial load losses Unit KR1 HD 5 Load Loss description HP Heaters not available Back end temps high Expected Outage Duration Outage Action Plan Gain (MW) Readiness Expected Completion date 3 way valve repair 25 4 Awaiting opportunity (Jan 2015) Do a smoke test to detect all casing leaks 30 5 Awaiting opportunity (Jan 2015) HD 9 KM 7 Stator coolant temps high Primary Air Fan Drive End Bearing running hot Replace change over valves Quick close the air damper Awaiting opportunity (Jan 2015) 45 2 Awaiting opportunity (Jan 2015) KM 3 RH FD Fan faulty Repair the fan 18 3 Awaiting opportunity (Feb 2015) TOTAL

15 Some of our running plants have partial load losses because parts have worn out and there is no time to repair Summary of partial load loss plan (Jan 15 Mar 15) Station PLL as at 01/04/14 PLL as at 05/01/15 Monthly Target Liberation Jan Feb Mar AN CM DV GV HN KD KM KR LT MJ ML TT TotaL MW Total Plan Remain mw

16 Further potential Risk of UCLF Increase on remaining units As of 9 Jan 2015 Unit MW Latest Philosophy Outage Last Opportunity Reason Duration Date reported Risk Rating HD MGO - May 2013 (52d) MGO July 2013 BTL (Boiler Tube Leak) 6hrs 22-Dec 1 KR ML4 575 LPT 1 & 2 inspections Sept 2012 (61d) HP Piping and LP Blade Inspection Nov 2013 AN2 380 IR Apr 2013 (85d) DV5 575 GO Dec 2013 (159.39) Refurbishment outage completed in March 2014(222d) Generator H2 seal inspection and repairs. Mar 2014(21d) GO in execution till Sept 2014 (90) Completed outage Dec 2013 EFP A booster pump impulse line leak, Unit transformer installed, Clinker removal and Precips repairs 4days 08-Jan 1 BTL 3 days 08-Jan 1 Bearing temps high, trip risk 3 days 08-Jan 1 Running BTL 3 days 08-Jan 1 HD IR- Oct 2013(25d) IR- Oct 2013 Turbine condenser HP cleaning and H2 leak repairs 6.3 days 20-Oct 2 MT B.4 I.R Oct 2010 (34d) GO completed in Apr 2014 Steam feed pump turbine and Turbine air ingress, acid clean stubs, Circ pump reg valve 3 days 09-Jan 2 MJ IR Sept 2013(64d) IR Sept 2013 Replace Non-Return Valve on both Condensate Extraction Pumps 3 days 09-Jan 2 KD GO Mar 2010 (64d) I.R Feb 2014 KM MGO Aug 2013 (80d) KD IR Jan 2011 (55d) Midterm Outage Aug 2013(80d) IR Jan 2011 (Extended duration due to Turbine) Generator Hydrogen leak worsening, cooler to be replaced. Primary Air leakges repairs. SSC (Submersible Scraper Conveyor) 7days 10-Nov 2 C PA fan quick close damper repairs & rec-commissioning 2days 08-Jan 2 Bearing temps high, trip risk 3 days 09-Jan 2 KD GO Mar 2012 (86d) GO Mar 2012 Left-Hand Induced fan balancing, Gen H2 Cooler & Air heater 3 days 09-Jan 3 ML MGO May 2013 (109d) MGO Aug 2013(109d) U1 and U2 T1 & T2 CW valves actuators faulty. South side risk of trip 3days 27-Oct 3 LT IR Nov 2010 (57d) Total 6871 IR Jan 2011 (57d). Gen rotor swop for (21d) in June 2014 Boiler dipper plate fell into SSC( Shut down risk). Steam leak on hot reheat manifold vent line. Boiler Feed Pump Turbine on ptw to repair mechanical seals. Keeping the lights on has also created a culture which de-emphasises maintenance 1 day 19-Dec 5 ` 16

17 Eskom is committed to minimising the effects of necessary load shedding We have arrived at a point that does not allow us to ignore the health of our plants. Our reserve margin is so thin, that every incident creates a major systems issue and could also have safety implications for the plant. The massive usage of diesel helps to bridge the problem somewhat, but can t help the systemic healing and a shortage of capacity for the coming 3 years appears to be unavoidable Eskom is preparing to minimise the effects of load-shedding Generation will focus on improving 5 KPIs (PCLF, Post Outage liability, UCLF, Slips and Trips) We will a create a mechanism to transfer the capabilities of our best in class operators (Koeberg and Matimba) across the rest of the fleet We will use Koeberg and Matimba as a blueprint to develop the required skills at a station level We will bring our suppliers on board to deliver the required maintenance at the best possible quality We will create transparency on what additional spend on diesel will do to the country We will create a load-shedding schedule that supports our people and economy to the best of our ability We will prepare our customers and our interfaces to deal with load shedding We will continue to keep the public informed on the progress of our new build program and the implication on our system load We will continue to pull all possible demand side levers in collaboration with our customers and government We will develop a health recovery plan and share progress as we go We will develop together with NERSA and government a diesel burn policy 17

18 Capacity expansion programme overview To date, the construction work that has been completed has added ~ 6 137MW of capacity, ~ 5 659km of transmission network and ~ of MVAs Megawatts MW of capacity Transmission Km lines Substations MVAs /5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/ / / / / /15 Total Target 1 1. Refers to the target of the total capacity expansion programme 18

19 Build-Programme Dates Medupi Power Station Project (6 x 794MW) 1 st Unit (Unit 6) Synchronization Date 1 st half st Unit Commercial Operations Date June 2015 Kusile Power Station Project (6 x 800MW) 1 st Unit (Unit 1) Synchronization Date 1 st Half st Unit Commercial Operations Date 2 nd Half 2017 Ingula Pumped Storage Scheme Project (4 x 333MW) 1 st Unit (Unit 3) Synchronization Date 1 st Half st Unit Commercial Operations Date 1 st Half 2016 Project Sere (100MW) Full Commercial Operations Date 1 st Half

20 First unit Medupi Unit 6 progress While the progress towards synchronisation is proceeding very well Eskom has previously indicated that the first unit would be synchronised later than 24 December 2014 This is to ensure that all systems are fully tested, safety-cleared and ready for continuous operation, and that no additional risks impact the good progress made to date st Sync 7. Steam to Set (Turn on Steam) 6. Boiler blow through 31/12 Text 5. First Oil Fire 17/10 First Coal Fire 27/11 1. Statutory hydro 15/05 4. Draught group test run 10/10 2. Boiler chemical cleaning 21/08 3. Turbine on barring 30/08 Complete Current milestone in progress Target Significant milestones have been reached towards synchronisation of Unit 6 Erratic power will flow to grid before full power is achieved during the first half of 2015 Source: Eskom 20

21 Our build programme compares well with global build programmes South Africa Medupi Eskom Lephalale HC 570/5 90 Feb

22 Conclusion The power system will be severely constrained and will begin to ease once new generating capacity comes online and other levers materialise The system will remain tight in Summer. Risks of extreme weather related outages such as wet coal, unplanned outage extensions and unavailability of primary energy may worsen the situation The country needs to be prepared for load shedding. Load shedding is a painful yet necessary decision to protect the electricity power system from a total black-out. A total black-out would have significant consequences on the South African economy It remains important for all customers to maintain or achieve 10% electricity savings especially in the commercial, industrial and residential sectors. We are committed to provide early warning, however at times the system status changes rapidly. Please follow us on for updates. 22

23 Communication on the power system Eskom communicates via the national, regional and local media including social media regarding its intention to load shed and during the process. Load shedding information and schedules are available on Eskom s website for Eskom customers National and regional spokesmen continue to spread the message and share additional information to provide information and clarity Stakeholders and direct customers are informed predominantly via social media and text messages and are able to communicate via Eskom s customer contact centre The Power Alert on SABC and DSTV channels continue to provide real-time information on the power system status and encourages customers to switch off. An average of 350MW reduction in demand is observed during this flighting Eskom issues a system power bulleting twice a week, and holds a Quarterly system status media briefing to provide regular updates Face to face stakeholder engagements provide an opportunity for further dialogue on the status Electricity users are encouraged to follow Eskom on twitter and Facebook and to download the free Eskom App Myeskom from android and Apple stores. The App is in process of being updated to provide load shedding information

24 We will collaborate with our customers to reduce demand- Less is more Live Lightly! Saving electricity reduces pressure on the grid, cuts your electricity bill and reduces South Africa s carbon emissions The power system remains vulnerable all day during summer 1. Use air conditioning efficiently o Set air conditioning to 23ºC Know your number o Close windows and doors to optimise air conditioning o Switch off 30 minutes before leaving the office 2. Switch off all geysers and pool pumps (all day until 9pm), and invest in a timer Live Lightly 3. If you use the pool frequently, limit pool filtering cycles to two cycles daily, and not between 5pm & 9pm 4. Switch off all non-essential lighting 5. Respond to Power Alert messages by switching off all appliances that are not being used 24

25 Setting the context Review of the last quarter of 2014 Outlook for 2015 New Build Update Conclusion 25

26 Navigation Guide of Load Shedding Website

27 Accessing Eskom s Website 1. Log onto: 2. You will land on the Eskom homepage 3. This is what you will see 4. Click here if you are an Eskom Supplied Customer 5. Click here if you are an Municipal Supplied Customer. 27

28 Eskom Load Shedding Website Look and Feel 1. You will land on the Load Shedding page 2. This is what you will see 3. You will be informed here whether Load shedding has been implemented. If Load Shedding has been implemented, the Stage of Load Shedding is indicated. 4. You can also access the Municipal Schedules that has been provided to Eskom by the Municipalities here. 28

29 Eskom Load Shedding Website How to navigate 1. The menu bar can be used to navigate and find out: What is Load Shedding How to interpret the Schedule The latest information Answers to Frequently asked Questions 2. This is the search functionality where as a Customer you will be able to search for you suburb and view the schedule. 3. This is the advanced Search Functionality allows the user to search by province and Municipality. 29

30 Eskom Supplied (Direct) Customers Searching for your Schedule Quick Search Functionality 1. Enter your suburb here 2. A list of matching areas will become available. 3. Select the appropriate Area 4. A Schedule will reflect 5. Now select the Stage (1,2 or 3) 6. Your correct schedule will now reflect. Advanced Search Functionality 1. Select your Province 2. Select the Municipality that you are serviced by 3. Select your suburb 4. A Schedule will reflect 5. Now select the Stage (1,2 or 3) 6. Your correct schedule will now reflect. Example: Midland Schedule Stage 1 30

31 Eskom Supplied (Direct) Customers Select your Schedule Stage Selecting the correct stage 1. Once your schedule appears it will be defaulted to Stage 1 2. Scroll up until you see the menu below. Example: Midland Schedule Stage 1 (default) Example: Midland Schedule Stage 2 Selected 3. Select the appropriate Stage (for this exercise we have selected Stage 2) 4. The schedule should have changed accordingly. 31

32 Municipal Supplied (Direct) Customers Searching for your Schedule Quick Search Functionality 1. Enter your suburb here 2. If you are not an Eskom Customer, the following message will pop-up. 3. You can now either navigate to the Municipal Schedule using this link, or 4. You can log into the appropriate Municipal Website 32

33 Municipal Schedules Link 1. If you select this link on the Eskom website or the Eskom Load Shedding Website you will be directed to the following link sheddingmunic.aspx where you will be able to view the Municipal Schedules provided to Eskom by the Municipalities. 2. Select the Municipality that Services you 3. You will now be redirected to the appropriate Municipal Site or a download of the schedule will be available. 33

34 Example: Ekurhuleni Munic 1. Select the Municipality that Services you 2. You will now be redirected to the appropriate Municipal Site or a download of the schedule will be available. 3. Example: Ekurhuleni Munic 4. You will be redirected to the Municipality s Website rvices/energy/power-cuts/loadshedding-schedules. 5. Navigate down the page and select the Area you need. 6. The schedules are available to download in PDF format. 34

35 Example: Ekurhuleni Munic 1. Once you have selected you Area and downloaded your schedule, this is an example of what you will see (Area selected Alberton) 35

36 Tips & Hints Quick Search - identify your Area or the Area closest are to you (Correct spelling) Select the stage once the initial schedule appears Print or save to your Laptop / smart phone / desktop This schedule is applicable for a month - now request the schedules for the remaining stages and do as above, as Stages may change. For any queries and assistance on Load shedding, visit the Eskom Load shedding Website or call our Contact Centers at

37 Thank you