Ice extension Baltic Sea region

Transcription

1 Ice extension Baltic Sea region

2 The maritime traffic patterns are continuously changing Changes in the size of ships Increased volumes Implications of new environmental rules

3 The aging icebreaker fleet

4 Different horses for different courses

5 Activity 1 Description of the operative model Morten Lindeberg Pentti Kujala Aalto University Jarkko Toivola, Helena Niemelä Finnish Transport Agency

6 Research question: Can the winter navigation system be simulated on a reliable way? IB NET

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11 Ship and port waiting-times INPUTS SIMULATION PROGRAM EVENT LOG Driving times and miles for merchant ships and IBs IB powers Used energy

12 Results Basic structure and logic of the simulation model developed Outputs under comparison with actual data Animation used as preliminary valuation tool Example sim: 4 IB areas connected (one area no icebreakers needed as no/ thin ice). 2 ports. Easier ways to give the input data under development (now Matlab based)

13 Animation

14 Activity 1.3 Patrick Eriksson Product Manager / Ice Expert Marine Services Mikko Lensu PhD, Senior Scientist Marine Research

15 Activity 1.3 The obejctive of the activity was to generate datasets that can be used in winter navigation models. The datasets consist of AIS-retrieved navigation data combined with ice chart parameters and modeled ice conditions. The icebreaker traffic system simulation was the main application of data Simulation applied archived data on the icebreaker dirways For each dirway ice parameters were provided as a function of dirway distance

16 With the data it is also possible: To study how the performance of ship depends on ice conditions Conduct analyses on the areal patterns of traffic intensity, mean speed and other traffic parameters and connect these to areal ice conditions Derive average statistics for ice navigation over one season or several years for areas, ship types or individual ships: some examples follow Instances Instances Icebreaker speed statistics for a season

17 Icebreaker speed statistics for season, all icebreakers and all navigation

18 Icebreaker speed statistics for season, all icebreakers, independent navigation only (no other ships within 3 NM)

19 25 Feb Mar 2015 Despite large differences in ice winter severity, extremely difficult assisting conditions may still occur.

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21 Total cost of winter navigation First attempt to calculate overall costs of winternavigation in WINMOS Act 1 economy model, including additional investments to merchant vessels ice-class and extra fuel costs. Model will be used to evaluate and support decision making for future fairway due legislation, service level decisions, icebreaking capacity and icebreaking serviceproduction model. Economic cash-flow model, made by Inspira Ltd, audited by Rebelgroup Ltd

22 Holistic operational model Holistic economic cash-flow model Operational model Variables and feed Traffic volumes and routes Different merchant vessels Different Icebreakers Changing ice-conditions Output to economy model and system performance Merchant vessel added fuel consumption Icebreaker fuel consumption Merchant vessel waiting and slowdown times Economy model Variables and feed Different merchant vessel types and investment costs Different icebreaker investment and business solutions Different fuel options Icebreaker fuel consumption cost Merchant vessel additional yearly fuel consumption and ice related additional consumption Output Total costs of winternavigation Individual costs of icebreakers

23 Collecting data of merchant vessels for holistic model Generally method and sources of required data is assured but collecting it is laborious. New processing resources are applied during this summer Test case Kemi traffic during 12/12-05/13 additional investment cost (steel hull strengthening) up to 150 MEUR for test case fleet additional engine power, cost estimate requires more detailed analysis additional fuel cost due to larger consumption (extra weight, not optimal load, ice conditions) up to 35% for test case

24 EEDI effects to Winter navigation system Study by Aker Arctic Predicted impact on the present and future merchant fleet s independent ice going capacity will be estimated, with reference Energy Efficiency Design Index, EEDI. The study was limited to one ship type and size. The examined ship concept is a LNG carrier D = ton, B =25m, T=7.20m and LWL = m. The required installed power have been estimated based on: speed 15 knots, MCR 85%, sea margin 15%. The icegoing performance of three different bow forms were evaluated: EEDI type of bow form, traditional icebreaking bow and semi bow.

25 The power requirements used in the analysis phase 1 EEDi allowed power Required power Installed 1A Super 1A 1B 1A Super 1A 1B Ice bow Semi bow EEDI bow phase 3 EEDi allowed power Required power Installed 1A Super 1A 1B 1A Super 1A 1B Ice bow Semi bow EEDI bow EEDi allowed power in Phase 1 and 3, required power based on FSIR and estimated installed open water power in kw.

26 Ice Bow EEDI Bow Semi Bow Hyvin jäissä kulkeva keula lisää avovesivastusta ja siten polttoaineenkulutusta Säännöllisessä Tornio-Rotterdam liikenteessä oleva laiva vain noin 5% liikkeellä olo ajastaan jäissä jotka vaikuttavat sen kulkuun

27 EEDI allowed power for ice class 1A super: 6200 kw (phase 1), 4900 kw (phase 3) EEDI allowed power for ice class 1A: 5300 kw (phase 1), 4000 kw (phase 3)

28 EEDI allowed power for ice class 1B: 5000 kw (phase 1), 3700 kw (phase 3)