1. Introduction 2. Current Status of the Nigerian Oil. 1. Oil Industry Profile 2. Gas Industry Profile 3. Comparisons with Some Other.

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Mae Underwood
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that allows them to buy their crude oil from whomever/wherever, sell their products to whomever/wherever,

1 * PATHWAYS TO GROWTH From the inside pages: The bottom-line is that, if the refineries of NNPC are to operate sustainably at maximum capacity, it is imperative that they be granted a minimum level of autonomy that allows them to buy their crude oil from whomever/wherever, sell their products to whomever/wherever, and retain such funds therefrom that are required to pay their staff and maintain their equipment and facilities.

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3 * 1. Introduction 2. Current Status of the Nigerian Oil & Gas Industry 1. Oil Industry Profile 2. Gas Industry Profile 3. Comparisons with Some Other Countries 3. The Targets, Rational & Pathways 1. Oil Production 2. Oil Refining 3. Gas Utilization 4. Biofuels 4. Targets Summary

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5 * With the coming online of Train 6 of the NLNG Complex in December 2007, the growth of the Nigerian Oil & Gas industry has virtually ceased. Previous to this, the last major project in this sector (apart from the previous NLNG Trains and other Gas projects) was the Petrochemicals Complex (EPCL) in Eleme, Rivers State, which was commissioned in Domestic refining capacity remains stuck at a nameplate capacity of 445,000 bpd since 1988 (nearly 30 years ago), while actual capacity utilization has declined to less than 20% in recent years, grossly inadequate to meet the growing domestic demand for petroleum products, forcing a near total dependence on products imports at the detriment of the economy.

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7 Similarly, the oil mining operations of NNPC (the National Oil Company), through its subsidiary Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) has remained mired at around 120,000 bpd (less than 4% of the Nation s production), leaving the International Oil Companies in control of over 90% of Nigeria s oil production. This submission seeks to provide analyses of the industry in comparison with that of similarly resource-endowed countries, and proffer pathways for growth, and along with targets and timelines.

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9 *

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11 * *Oil Reserves: 37 billion barrels *Oil Production Capacity: 2.5 million barrels per day *Main Producers (95% of Production): *(1) Shell, Chevron, (2) Mobil (ExxonMobil), (3) AGIP (NAOC), (4) Elf (TotalFinaElf), (5) Texaco (acquired by Chevron) *Main Oil Terminals (out of 29 in total): 1. Forcados (Shell) 2. Bonny (Shell) 3. Qua Iboe (Mobil) 4. Escravos (Chevron) 5. Brass (AGIP) 6. Pennington (Texaco)

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13 * *Gas Reserves: *187 trillion SCF (Proven) *600 trillion SCF (Unproven) * Nigeria is known as a Gas Region with some Oil, as 70% of her proven hydrocarbon reserves is Gas (in energy content) *Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)Facilities: *Nigerian LNG (NLNG): * 6 Trains, 23 LNG Ships * Output: * LNG = 22 million tons per annum (MTPA) * Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) = 5 MTPA *Proposed: * NLNG Train 7 * Brass LNG * OK LNG *Gas Production: *Monetized: 7.3 billion SCF per day *Gas flaring is still significant (wasteful and

14 environmentally harmful) Ian G. Udoh 7 *

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16 * *NPDC Upstream assets include Okono Okpoho Fields, Abura Field, Oredo & Oziengbe Fields: *Overall Oil Production: 120,000 bpd *NGC Gas Transmission Facilities *Capacity: 756 million SCF per day *4 refineries with a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd *22 Storage Depots *Including 9 LPG depots with a total combined capacity of 12,000 MT of LPG *5,120km Pipeline Network *24 Pump Stations *526 Products Retail Outlets (including megastations and affiliates)

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18 *

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20 *NOC PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS *The main parameters for measuring the performance of National Oil Company, vis-à-vis its purpose of taking direct control of national hydrocarbon reserves in the national interest, include: *Revenues *Oil (and gas) production *Refining Capacity/Utilization

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22 * NNPC AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE TABLE IN ALL PARAMETERS

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24 * NNPC AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE TABLE IN ALL PARAMETERS

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26 * Rationales & Pathways

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* *TARGET * 1 million bpd of oil production by NNPC by 2025 *RATIONALE * Match NNPC oil production with domestic demand for petroleum products * Energy security * Domination of the Nigerian Oil & Gas

28 * *TARGET * 1 million bpd of oil production by NNPC by 2025 *RATIONALE * Match NNPC oil production with domestic demand for petroleum products * Energy security * Domination of the Nigerian Oil & Gas Industry by her National Oil Company (NOC), NNPC * Rapid technology transfer and mastery of the Oil & Gas Industry, across the entire value chain, by Nigerians * Maximization of value from Oil & Gas for Nigeria and Nigerians *PATHWAYS * Increase NPDC oil production by 50,000 bpd every year from assets divested by the International Oil Companies (IOCs) * Ramp up Frontier Exploration Services (especially in the Chad Basin and Benue Trough), with all new oil findings assigned to NPDC * Commence gradual transformation of Joint Venture

29 (JV) operations with the IOCs to Incorporated Joint Ventures (IJVs), with major equity holdings by NNPC Ian G. Udoh 15

30 * *TARGET *1 million bpd domestic refining by 2020 * Current domestic capacity is 445,000bpd, which is only sufficient to meet 50% of domestic demand of 40 million litres/day for PMS *RATIONALE *Energy security from self-sufficiency *Reduction/elimination of foreign exchange expenditure on imports *Foreign exchange earnings from such products as Kerosene, Diesel & Fuel Oil that will be in excess of domestic demand *Creation of more jobs in the economy *PATHWAYS *Remove the current limitations to the attainment full capacity utilization of 445,000 bpd by the refineries. *Expand capacities of present refineries and build at least one new refinery. *Encourage the establishment of modular refineries, especially in pipeline host communities to

31 discourage oil theft from pipelines, as host communities are integrated into the oil economy. 16 Ian G. Udoh

32 * 1. Crude Oil Supply (limits refineries to 50% of installed capacity): * Escravos WRPC pipeline: limited availability due to persistent damage for oil theft * Bonny PHRC pipeline: limited availability due to persistent damage for oil theft * Warri KRPC pipeline: under-capacity and unreliable due to age 2. Non completion/execution of Critical Rehabilitation/Upgrade Projects 3. Non-implementation of Refineries Operations & Marketing (Business) Model, approved since 2010 but put on hold since then

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34 * *Offshore SINGLE BUOY MOORING (SBM) facility, linked to the refinery by a SUBSEA PIPELINE, for the direct transfer of crude oil from Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to the refinery. One each to be located offshore Port Harcourt and Warri. *Supplementary crude supply from Warri to Kaduna by RAILWAY. *Replacement and burying of existing crude supply pipelines using HORIZONTAL DIRECT DRILLING (HDD) technology. *Resumption of HEAVY PARAFFINIC CRUDE supply to KRPC for Lubricating Base Oils, Wax and Asphalt production from the long-idle Lubes Refinery.

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36 * Each of NNPC s refining companies (KRPC, PHRC & WRPC) has a humongous list of unexecuted rehabilitation/upgrade projects it considers critical, some of which have been in view for nearly two decades. In consideration of the paucity of funds, and the limitations of project management capacity available, these lists should be pruned down to the to the most critical five for each refinery Projects 555, if you like (5 for each refinery) for fast-track execution. Those projects should be such that would have the greatest impact on the capacity utilization and reliability of each refinery on a Pareto basis (the 80/20 rule). Subsequently, the other projects can be cleared up using the funds that then become increasingly available from refinery operations.

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* Implement the new operations and marketing marketing business model for refineries (previously approved in 2010) The above commercial business model

38 * Implement the new operations and marketing marketing business model for refineries (previously approved in 2010) The above commercial business model provides the platform for transparent and rancour-free equity participation by the private sector investors should that prove desirable or expedient in the future.

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40 * THE IMPERATIVE The bottom-line is that, if the refineries of NNPC are to operate sustainably at maximum capacity, it is imperative that they be granted a minimum level of autonomy that allows them to buy their crude oil from whomever/wherever, sell their products to whomever/wherever, and retain such funds therefrom that are required to pay their staff and maintain their equipment and facilities. Thereafter, private-sector equity participation can be considered for the refineries to drive up efficiencies by the introduction of private-sector best practices and culture.

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42 * *Expand existing Refineries by adding 100,000 bpd capacity to each of the refineries, bringing them up to: *KRPC 210,000 bpd; PHRC 310,000 bpd; WRPC 225,000 bpd *Total Capacity 745 bpd *Build 1 new refinery of 300,000 bpd in partnership with private investors *Encourage the establishment of private modular refineries, especially in pipeline host communities to discourage oil theft from pipelines, as host communities are integrated into the oil economy. *Overall projected capacity by 2020 = 1,045,000 bpd (excluding modular refineries)

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44 * *Deploying the foregoing strategies, as summarized below, would rapidly transform Nigeria into a petroleum products exporting hub: *Remove the current limitations to the attainment full capacity utilization of 445,000 bpd by the refineries. (As previously listed, but especially the deployment of a proper business model for NNPC refineries.) *Expand capacities of present refineries and build at least one new refinery, this being in addition to the more than 500,000 bpd capacity that the Dangote Group is expected to add by *Encourage the establishment of modular refineries by lead investors, especially in pipeline host communities to discourage oil

45 theft from pipelines, as host communities are integrated into the oil economy. Ian G. Udoh 23

46 *

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48 * *TARGET *Increase Gas Electricity Pipelines from the present 1,000Km to 10,000Km by *RATIONALE *Gas based electricity revolution in Nigeria (Nigeria is a gas region) will require 10,000km of gas pipelines to generate 40,000MW of electricity. Nigeria now has only 1,000km of these pipelines. *Increase of the contribution of Manufacturing to the economy, especially from Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs), and thereby radically improve the number of jobs in the economy for the youth. *Improved import substitution for manufactured goods. *PATHWAYS *Construction of at least 200Km of gas pipelines a year in partnership with private-sector investors. *Appropriate pricing of gas, pipeline tariffs and

49 electricity to drive investment in gas and electricity infrastructure. Ian G. Udoh 25

50 * Not reaching Nigerian users Flaring 15% 80 % 30% Upstream use Export 35% Gas produced Power 15% 20 % Industry & other Used by Nigerian users 5%

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52 * *TARGET * Increase the annual domestic consumption of LPG from 200,000 tons to 2 million tons by *RATIONALE * Nigeria s consumption per capita is the lowest in the West African Sub-Region, which is baffling for a major oil & gas producer. * LPG is a cleaner and much more environmentally friendly fuel than the kerosene and firewood that is now favoured by a majority of Nigerian households. * Reduction in deforestation resulting from the use of firewood. * Domestic Kerosene production should be diverted to the production of Jet Fuel. * Revenues and jobs resulting from a thriving domestic LPG business. *PATHWAYS * Increase LPG storage capacity from the present 20,000 MT to 200,000 MT * Increase the number of LPG cylinders in circulation

53 from the present 2 million to 10 million through appropriately targeted subsidies and publicity campaigns. Ian G. Udoh 27

* Extremely low! ALGERIA BRAZIL NIGERIA Population 38m 201m 175m Gas Reserves (trillion SCF) LPG Production (tons per yr.) LPG Consumption (tons per yr.) 159 14 187 9.3m 5.

54 * Extremely low! ALGERIA BRAZIL NIGERIA Population 38m 201m 175m Gas Reserves (trillion SCF) LPG Production (tons per yr.) LPG Consumption (tons per yr.) m 5.1m 3m 2m 5m 0.2m Cylinder Nos. 100m 2m Job Nos. 350,000 Annual turnover of the LPG industry in Brazil was US$12.5 billion for 2012 and yielded the Government US$2.5 billion in taxes

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56 BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - TARGETS Benefits No. of Direct Jobs Created* 0 1,000 5,250 14,250 22,250 32,250 Foreign Direct Investment ($Million) Carbon Emission Reduction (Million Tons CO 2 ) Volume of Ethanol Produced (Million Liters) Volume of Bio-diesel Produced (Million Liters) Power Generated for National Grid (MW) Note: * Jobs created indirectly should range between 4 to 8 times direct jobs

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58 BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - RATIONALE Nigeria s land is ideally suited for sugarcane, cassava and palm oil production Estimated land availability for large scale biofuel operations is above 2 million hectares Nigeria has the potential to create a sustainable bio-fuel industry capable of generating between 500,000 and one million jobs. The Programme should lead to: Maximize Carbon Credit opportunities Rural wealth & Job Creation Thriving Homegrown Industry Sustainable Development Environmentall y Friendly Energy Self- Sufficiency Integrate Oil & Gas with Agriculture

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60 BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - PATHWAYS Work already done by NNPC by 2008: Bio-fuels policy developed Feasibility studies completed for integrated plantation/plant 3 Sugarcane 2 Cassava 2 Palm Oil Significant progress was made in securing investors for 1st set of projects

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BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - PATHWAYS Locations that were under consideration for Biofuels Projects by NNPC in 2008 Bankable Biofuels Feasibility Studies completed by NNPC Biomass Location State

62 BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - PATHWAYS Locations that were under consideration for Biofuels Projects by NNPC in 2008 Bankable Biofuels Feasibility Studies completed by NNPC Biomass Location State 1 Sugarcane Kupto Maleri Gombe 2 Sugarcane Agasha Guma Benue 3 Sugarcane Buruku Benue 4 Cassava Okelusi Ondo 5 Cassava Ebenebe Anambra 6 Palm Oil Calabar C. River 7 Palm Oil Ikom C. River

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64 BIOFUELS PROGRAMME - PATHWAYS PROFILE OF BIOFUELS PROJECTS Sugarcane Bioethanol Integrated operation: Farm size: >=15,000-18,000 ha Cane production: 1.8 million t/year Irrigated Plant characteristics: Ethanol: >=75 million l/year Refined Sugar: >=110,000 t/year Self-powered: bagasse Cogeneration Out-grower scheme: <=1,000 ha (initially) Cassava Bioethanol Integrated operation: Farm size: >=10,000 ha Cassava production: 3-4 million t/year Likely irrigated Plant characteristics: Ethanol: >=50-60 million l/year Out-grower scheme: <=1,000 ha (initially) Palm Oil Biodiesel NEXT STEP: Seek & secure investors to develop the

65 projects for which feasibility studies have been completed Ian G. Udoh 33

66 * *Oil Production by NNPC: *1 million bpd by 2025 *Domestic Oil Refining Capacity: *1million bpd by 2020 *Domestic Gas Utilization: *Natural Gas (Gas to Electricity) * Increase gas pipelines from 1,000Km to 10,000 by 2030 to generate 40,000MW by 2030 *Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) * Increase annual domestic LPG consumption from 200,000MT to 2 million MT by 2020 *Biofuels Projects: *Engage investors by end 2016 to develop the following projects for which bankable feasibility studies have been completed: * 3 Nos. Sugarcane Plantations/Plants * 2 Nos. Cassava Plantations/Plants

67 * 2 Nos. Palm Oil Plantations/Plants. Ian G. Udoh 34

68 *

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BIOFUELS : LEVERAGING THE VAST AGRICULTURE POTENTIAL IN NIGERIA TO CREATE WEALTH, EMPLOYMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY GGM, RED

CORPORATION BIOFUELS : LEVERAGING THE VAST AGRICULTURE POTENTIAL IN NIGERIA TO CREATE WEALTH, EMPLOYMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT BY GGM, RED 1 HISTORICAL SECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO GDP GROWTH: From